Magellan Strategies Arizona Republican Primary Survey Memorandum 060514

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Survey of likely 2014 Republican primary voters measuring voter opinion of candidates in all statewide races.

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Magellan Strategies Arizona Republican Primary Survey Memorandum 060514

  1. 1. ! JUNE 5th, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: ARIZONA GOVERNOR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY SURVEY ________________________________________________________________________ This memorandum is a summary of an automated voice recorded survey 630n likely Republican primary voters in the state of Arizona. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.90% at the 95% confidence level, the survey was fielded June 3rd and 4th . Governor Ballot Test It is clear that Doug Ducey has been successful introducing himself voters in this early stage of the Arizona Governor’s race, and voters like what they see so far in the candidate. The survey finds Doug Ducey maintaining a double digit, 12 point lead over a very crowded field of candidates with 28% support, followed by Scott Smith with 16%, Christine Jones with 12%, and Ken Bennett with 12%. Candidates Al Melvin and Frank Riggs have 2% each and 23% remain undecided. This survey’s ballot test is similar to our last Republican primary survey fielded May 13th and 14th that showed Doug Ducey with a 14 point lead over the other candidates with 27% support. The current survey shows Scott Smith moving up by 4 points from 12% to 16% compared to our May survey, gaining a little distance on Ken Bennett and Christine Jones who had 13% and 12% respectively. Governor Ballot Test Among Key Voting Subgroups The most important voting subgroup in an Arizona Republican primary is senior voters aged 65 and older, which make up slightly more than 40% of the total vote. Among the senior subgroup Doug Ducey has 28% support and a 15 point lead over Scott Smith and Christine Jones with 13%each. Among all male voters Doug Ducey’s lead is 19 points, with 32% and 13% for Scott Smith and Christine Jones respectively. Among all female voter the ballot test is much tighter, with Doug Ducey having 24% support, Scott Smith with 18%, and Christine Jones with 11%. Another revealing insight into the race is reviewing the ballot test among voters that consider themselves closer to the Tea Party, and voters that identify themselves as closer to the “traditional Republican Party”. Among voters that consider themselves closer to the Tea Party (46% of all respondents), Doug Ducey has a 23 point lead with 34% of the vote, Christine Jones with 12%, and Scott Smith with 11%.
  2. 2. ! ! ! ! ! Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 630n autodial survey of likely Republican primary voters, and independent and unaffiliated voters that are likely to vote in the Republican primary election in the state of Arizona. The interviews were conducted June 3rd and 4th , 2014. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.90% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon past Republican primary election voting demographics. T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? Republican..............................................................86% Independent............................................................14% T2. As you may know, independent voters can vote in the August primary election. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) Extremely likely.......................................................79% Very likely...............................................................16% Somewhat likely........................................................5% T3. And if the primary election were being held today, would you choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked only to respondents who self- identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) Republican primary...............................................100%
  3. 3. Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 2 T4. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as registered Republicans) Extremely likely.......................................................92% Very likely.................................................................6% Somewhat likely........................................................2% T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Bennett? Favorable................................................................26% Unfavorable ...........................................................15% No opinion .............................................................34% Never heard of .......................................................22% Unsure......................................................................3% Name ID ................................................................75% Hard name ID.........................................................41% T6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Ducey? Favorable................................................................39% Unfavorable ...........................................................21% No opinion .............................................................31% Never heard of .........................................................8% Unsure......................................................................1% Name ID ................................................................91% Hard name ID.........................................................60% T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Jones? Favorable................................................................22% Unfavorable ...........................................................27% No opinion .............................................................29% Never heard of .......................................................21% Unsure......................................................................1% Name ID ................................................................78% Hard name ID.........................................................49%
  4. 4. Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 3 T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Smith? Favorable................................................................23% Unfavorable ...........................................................17% No opinion .............................................................32% Never heard of .......................................................25% Unsure......................................................................3% Name ID ................................................................72% Hard name ID.........................................................40% T9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Horne? Favorable................................................................20% Unfavorable ...........................................................60% No opinion .............................................................15% Never heard of .........................................................2% Unsure......................................................................3% Name ID ................................................................95% Hard name ID.........................................................80% T10. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Brnovich? Favorable..................................................................7% Unfavorable ...........................................................13% No opinion .............................................................29% Never heard of .......................................................49% Unsure......................................................................2% Name ID ................................................................49% Hard name ID.........................................................20%
  5. 5. Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 4 T11. If the Republican primary election for Governor were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Ken Bennett, Doug Ducey, Christine Jones, Al Melvin, Frank Riggs, Scott Smith, and Andrew Thomas? Doug Ducey ...........................................................28% Scott Smith..............................................................16% Christine Jones ........................................................12% Ken Bennett ............................................................12% Andrew Thomas........................................................5% Al Melvin..................................................................2% Frank Riggs ...............................................................2% Undecided..............................................................23% T12. If the Republican primary election for Attorney General were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Tom Horne and Mark Brnovich? Mark Brnovich ........................................................43% Tom Horne .............................................................26% Undecided..............................................................31% T13. If the Republican primary election for Secretary of State were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Wil Cardon, Michele Reagan and Justin Pierce? Michele Reagan ......................................................20% Wil Cardon .............................................................18% Justin Pierce ............................................................15% Undecided .............................................................47% T14. If the Republican primary election for Treasurer were being held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Jeff DeWit, Randy Pullen, and Hugh Hallman? Hugh Hallman ........................................................14% Jeff DeWit ...............................................................13% Randy Pullen.............................................................8% Undecided..............................................................65%
  6. 6. Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 5 T15. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal when it comes to fiscal issues like taxes and government spending? Very conservative....................................................45% Conservative ...........................................................37% Moderate ................................................................16% Liberal.......................................................................2% T16. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, conservative, moderate or liberal when it comes to social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage? Very conservative....................................................41% Conservative ...........................................................26% Moderate ................................................................19% Liberal.....................................................................14% T17. If you had to choose, would you identify yourself more closely with the traditional Republican Party, or would you identify yourself more closely with the Tea Party Movement? Traditional Republican party...................................43% Tea Party Movement ...............................................46% No opinion .............................................................11% And now I have a couple of questions for statistical purposes only… T18. Are you a man or a woman? Woman...................................................................52% Man ........................................................................48% T19. What is your marital status? Married...................................................................69% Single and have never been married .........................4% Unmarried and living with a partner .........................5% Widowed................................................................13% Separated..................................................................0% Divorced...................................................................7% No opinion ...............................................................2%
  7. 7. Magellan ID#: AZREP-060314 Arizona Republican Primary Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 6/3/14 – 6/4/14, MoE +/- 3.90%, 630n, CONFIDENTIAL Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 6 T20. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 18-34........................................................................7% 35-44......................................................................10% 45-54......................................................................19% 55-64......................................................................23% 65+.........................................................................41% T21. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, Press 2 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you belong to another ethnic group. White......................................................................88% Hispanic or Latino.....................................................6% Another ethnic group ................................................6% Survey Methodology This survey was conducted using automated telephone touchtone technology. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from an Arizona voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon past Republican primary election voting demographics. The interviews were conducted on June 3rd and 4th , 2014. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 3.90% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
  8. 8. Magellan Strategies Arizona 2014 Likely Republican Primary Voter Summary 785n, MoE +/- 3.50%, May 28th to June 1st 2 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 Among voters that consider themselves closer to the “traditional Republican Party” (43% of all respondents), Doug Ducey trails Scott Smith by 2 points, 24% to 22% respectively, and Ken Bennett comes in third with 18%. Candidate Image Ratings Looking at the candidate image ratings, we find Doug Ducey having the highest favorability rating among all candidates with 39% having a favorable opinion of him and 21% having an unfavorable opinion of him. 31% of have heard of Doug Ducey but do not have an opinion of him. Scott Smith and Ken Bennett have net- positive image ratings with 23% favorable/17% unfavorable/32% heard of but no opinion, and Ken Bennett with 26% favorable/15% unfavorable/34% heard of but no opinion. Among the leading candidates Christine Jones has a net-negative image rating with 22% having a favorable opinion of her, 27% and unfavorable opinion and 20% have heard of her and have no opinion. Survey Methodology This survey was conducted using an automated voice recorded method interviewing 630n likely 2014 Republican primary voters. The interviews were conducted on June 3rd and 4th , of 2014. The sample for this survey was randomly selected from an Arizona voter file and was selected proportionate to the state’s likely non-Presidential voting population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all voters an equal chance to be included. The results were slightly weighted to reflect past gender and age demographics of the non- Presidential voting population. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.90% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861-8585. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to Republican candidates, campaigns and conservative organizations across the country.
  9. 9. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 1-1 SUMMARY TABLES GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 BENNETT IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 164 26.0 81 26.8 61 25.4 19 31.7 83 25.3 44 22.6 32 25.7 4 8.3 12 19.5 33 27.8 50 34.5 64 25.0 23 25.8 6 15.7 70 24.3 65 30.2 152 27.4 5 12.9 7 18.9 71 26.2 74 25.7 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 51 16.8 43 17.8 8 12.7 43 13.1 21 10.8 22 17.5 20 45.7 12 19.8 27 22.6 13 9.2 21 8.0 6 7.1 4 9.8 53 18.2 31 14.5 70 12.7 15 36.4 9 25.2 42 15.6 51 17.6 DUCEY IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 245 39.0 135 44.5 109 45.3 25 41.2 111 33.8 67 34.3 37 29.3 5 10.4 27 43.3 47 39.3 64 44.1 103 39.7 29 32.9 11 29.2 122 42.2 83 38.9 222 39.9 9 22.6 15 42.1 79 29.2 137 47.3 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 57 18.7 47 19.4 10 16.5 77 23.6 40 20.4 37 30.0 21 48.0 10 15.7 25 20.6 31 21.1 48 18.5 10 11.9 5 12.0 74 25.6 45 21.0 108 19.5 19 48.5 6 18.5 82 30.4 47 16.1 JONES IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 141 22.3 77 25.5 62 25.8 15 24.6 63 19.4 39 19.8 25 19.8 2 4.5 17 26.7 36 29.8 28 19.4 58 22.5 21 24.2 10 25.7 70 24.3 39 18.3 123 22.2 10 24.6 8 22.3 54 20.2 78 26.9 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 82 27.1 68 28.1 14 22.9 88 26.9 44 22.4 40 32.4 20 45.7 14 21.9 27 22.2 40 27.8 69 26.9 14 15.3 7 19.3 93 32.1 56 26.4 145 26.0 16 40.7 9 27.1 68 25.4 84 29.2 SMITH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 145 22.9 73 24.2 50 20.9 23 37.5 72 21.8 49 25.0 23 18.1 14 31.2 14 21.9 25 20.6 38 26.2 54 21.0 11 12.6 2 4.0 54 18.6 78 36.4 132 23.7 4 10.9 9 24.7 83 30.9 53 18.2 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 59 19.4 52 21.7 6 9.4 46 14.1 19 9.5 28 22.1 10 22.9 7 10.4 30 24.8 24 16.8 34 13.2 8 9.2 5 12.8 53 18.4 38 17.9 88 15.9 12 29.6 5 13.2 36 13.2 60 20.7 HORNE IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 127 20.2 79 26.1 63 26.1 15 24.9 49 14.8 32 16.3 17 13.3 3 6.7 11 16.9 20 16.6 30 20.5 64 24.9 23 25.6 14 37.7 48 16.6 42 19.8 112 20.1 12 30.1 4 11.1 40 14.9 77 26.5 UNFAVORABLE 377 59.9 179 59.2 146 60.4 33 55.5 198 60.5 126 64.4 69 55.3 30 68.7 31 49.7 82 68.4 88 60.4 146 56.7 44 49.8 13 35.6 191 65.9 129 60.3 332 59.8 24 60.3 21 61.3 189 70.3 149 51.5
  10. 10. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 1-2 SUMMARY TABLES FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 BENNETT IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 164 26.0 80 28.1 59 25.6 22 21.0 3 28.0 67 26.3 54 32.7 29 24.4 13 14.5 164 100.0 94 38.4 41 30.4 45 31.9 60 35.1 57 39.2 50 48.0 44 34.9 101 26.8 32 71.9 29 35.9 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 28 9.8 24 10.2 41 39.5 2 15.8 30 11.6 18 10.8 24 20.0 22 25.2 94 100.0 27 11.2 59 44.1 30 21.7 52 30.5 34 23.3 39 37.5 7 5.6 85 22.5 7 15.3 44 53.9 DUCEY IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 245 39.0 140 49.5 83 35.6 19 18.0 4 32.9 117 45.8 71 43.0 38 31.9 19 21.3 94 57.6 27 29.3 245 100.0 76 53.9 76 44.5 55 37.7 53 50.6 73 57.6 127 33.7 21 48.2 27 33.5 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 29 10.4 49 20.9 49 48.2 6 57.7 28 11.0 27 16.4 38 31.6 41 46.3 41 24.9 59 63.1 134 100.0 37 26.1 74 43.7 58 40.3 43 41.1 16 12.9 114 30.2 18 41.3 53 65.3 JONES IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 141 22.3 71 25.2 48 20.7 20 19.2 1 11.3 60 23.4 48 28.8 16 13.2 17 19.4 45 27.4 30 32.5 76 30.9 37 27.4 141 100.0 37 25.6 33 31.9 47 36.5 85 22.5 23 52.3 20 24.3 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 78 27.6 48 20.8 39 38.0 5 43.7 59 23.2 37 22.5 36 29.7 38 43.0 60 36.5 52 55.5 76 30.9 74 55.6 170 100.0 50 34.7 62 59.5 36 28.1 118 31.2 16 35.1 58 71.4 SMITH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 145 22.9 41 14.5 61 26.1 39 38.1 4 32.9 47 18.3 40 24.3 25 20.8 32 36.8 57 34.6 34 36.0 55 22.2 58 43.5 37 26.3 50 29.5 145 100.0 29 22.4 105 28.0 21 47.2 39 48.1 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 50 17.8 31 13.5 18 18.0 4 40.1 41 16.1 34 20.4 21 17.4 9 9.9 50 30.7 39 41.9 53 21.6 43 32.1 33 23.7 62 36.6 105 100.0 16 12.2 83 22.0 18 39.8 39 47.4 HORNE IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 127 20.2 81 28.6 38 16.5 7 6.5 1 11.3 67 26.1 34 20.3 20 17.0 6 7.4 44 27.1 7 7.6 73 29.9 16 12.3 47 33.1 36 21.0 29 19.7 16 14.8 127 100.0 9 19.4 19 22.8 UNFAVORABLE 377 59.9 141 49.7 143 61.2 85 82.4 9 83.8 123 48.0 98 59.0 81 67.0 76 86.5 101 61.9 85 90.5 127 51.9 114 85.0 85 60.4 118 69.1 105 73.0 83 79.5 377 100.0 36 79.9 61 74.8
  11. 11. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 1-3 SUMMARY TABLES GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 BENNETT IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 164 26.0 53 72.2 37 21.1 10 12.8 2.0 6 46.0 28 28.0 8 25.7 22 14.9 46 27.8 82 30.5 36 18.3 44 39.4 42 33.5 14 14.6 64 21.4 29 35.4 25 46.6 24 26.2 87 21.4 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 3 3.8 19 10.6 16 21.7 2 10.8 3 28.2 31 31.6 11 32.2 9 5.9 21 12.6 60 22.4 13 6.6 16 14.1 29 23.0 27 28.9 22 7.4 14 16.6 7 13.8 32 35.2 41 10.1 DUCEY IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 245 39.0 20 27.5 149 84.6 20 25.8 5 33.8 1 11.6 16 15.6 10 29.6 25 17.5 86 52.0 95 35.3 65 32.9 66 58.6 51 40.7 34 36.8 95 31.6 46 56.6 25 47.2 31 34.9 143 35.3 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 29 40.1 20 27.0 2 16.2 6 51.6 52 52.2 12 34.9 12 8.2 32 19.4 79 29.5 23 11.6 15 13.4 40 32.2 36 39.0 43 14.2 10 12.5 15 28.7 40 44.5 69 16.9 JONES IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 141 22.3 12 16.4 31 17.9 53 70.7 5 30.5 3 22.6 15 14.7 3 9.1 19 13.0 45 27.2 69 25.6 27 13.8 43 38.5 49 38.9 14 14.7 35 11.8 42 51.3 13 24.5 15 16.9 71 17.5 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 28 38.8 55 31.4 1 1.2 3 17.3 6 51.6 43 43.4 15 44.7 19 12.9 54 32.8 73 27.3 43 21.8 31 27.8 33 26.3 43 46.1 64 21.2 17 20.9 20 37.4 48 54.0 85 20.9 SMITH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 145 22.9 10 13.3 17 9.6 8 11.0 2 13.9 1 4.4 91 91.3 3 9.1 13 9.0 40 24.0 69 25.5 36 18.5 34 30.6 42 33.7 18 20.0 50 16.5 12 15.2 18 33.5 34 38.1 80 19.8 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 25 33.8 33 19.1 11 14.4 2 10.8 9 74.2 1 0.6 13 39.0 11 7.8 22 13.1 66 24.7 17 8.5 28 25.0 31 25.2 21 23.2 24 7.9 29 36.0 14 25.7 24 27.1 38 9.2 HORNE IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 127 20.2 17 22.7 42 24.0 18 24.2 5 35.4 1 9.0 10 10.2 5 15.3 29 19.7 103 62.2 5 2.0 19 9.9 24 21.0 32 25.7 17 18.1 55 18.3 17 20.6 13 24.2 13 14.3 85 21.0 UNFAVORABLE 377 59.9 53 71.6 99 56.2 50 65.8 5 30.6 10 78.6 78 78.1 17 49.9 68 46.6 24 14.5 252 94.0 101 51.6 81 72.1 77 61.9 48 52.4 171 56.8 52 63.7 38 71.3 61 67.6 227 55.9
  12. 12. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 1-4 SUMMARY TABLES GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 BENNETT IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 164 26.0 67 29.2 65 27.0 155 27.4 9 14.3 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 31 13.8 45 18.6 88 15.5 6 9.2 DUCEY IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 245 39.0 101 44.3 88 36.5 229 40.5 17 26.4 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 33 14.4 76 31.6 126 22.3 8 12.9 JONES IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 141 22.3 60 26.3 55 22.9 130 23.0 11 17.3 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 62 27.4 75 31.1 157 27.9 13 20.1 SMITH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 145 22.9 56 24.7 53 22.1 141 25.0 3 5.1 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 35 15.2 52 21.8 98 17.3 7 10.5 HORNE IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 127 20.2 58 25.4 44 18.3 105 18.6 23 35.5 UNFAVORABLE 377 59.9 105 46.1 180 74.7 351 62.1 27 41.9
  13. 13. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 2-1 SUMMARY TABLES GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 BRNOVICH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 44 7.0 24 7.9 14 6.0 9 15.7 21 6.3 15 7.7 6 4.5 3 4.6 15 12.6 12 8.6 14 5.4 8 9.6 2 5.5 13 4.4 21 9.9 39 7.1 4 9.6 1 3.3 22 8.3 18 6.1 UNFAVORABLE 81 12.9 35 11.6 29 11.9 7 10.8 46 14.1 21 10.7 25 20.3 21 48.0 12 18.6 8 6.9 15 10.2 25 9.8 3 3.4 6 14.7 46 15.7 27 12.8 62 11.2 14 34.1 5 15.6 39 14.3 43 14.7 GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT DOUG DUCEY 176 27.9 96 31.7 82 34.2 14 22.5 80 24.3 52 26.4 27 22.1 5 10.4 15 23.0 41 34.2 45 30.8 71 27.5 18 20.0 9 24.7 98 33.9 51 23.6 160 28.9 9 21.5 7 19.2 60 22.4 97 33.7 SCOTT SMITH 100 15.8 40 13.2 31 12.7 9 15.4 60 18.2 40 20.4 20 15.9 14 31.2 10 15.4 13 11.1 29 20.0 34 13.1 2 2.8 1 1.4 39 13.3 58 27.1 90 16.2 3 6.7 7 19.9 64 23.9 31 10.6 CHRISTINE JONES 76 12.0 40 13.3 29 12.2 11 17.8 35 10.8 26 13.1 10 7.9 1 2.3 9 14.4 27 22.3 5 3.2 34 13.2 11 12.1 6 16.8 37 12.8 21 10.0 69 12.5 5 13.5 1 2.7 32 11.8 36 12.4 KEN BENNETT 73 11.6 43 14.1 38 15.9 4 7.1 31 9.4 15 7.8 13 10.3 6 8.8 11 8.9 26 17.8 31 12.1 14 15.6 3 8.8 32 11.1 24 11.3 67 12.1 3 7.2 3 9.6 47 17.5 22 7.7 ANDREW THOMAS 33 5.2 13 4.4 9 3.9 4 6.3 20 6.0 4 1.9 16 12.8 17 39.3 5 4.0 2 1.2 9 3.5 3 3.3 0.8 13 4.6 17 7.8 19 3.5 14 34.3 3 1.3 28 9.8 AL MELVIN 15 2.4 7 2.3 7 2.8 8 2.4 5 2.7 3 2.2 1 2.2 3 2.8 2 1.1 9 3.4 8 9.4 2 5.6 3 1.1 1 0.6 10 1.7 1 2.5 4 12.2 4 1.6 9 3.1 FRANK RIGGS 12 1.9 3 1.1 2 0.6 2 2.8 9 2.8 4 2.1 5 4.0 1 2.3 4 3.4 7 2.6 5 1.6 8 3.6 12 2.1 1 1.6 2 0.6 9 3.2 UNDECIDED 146 23.1 60 20.0 43 17.6 17 28.2 85 26.0 50 25.7 31 24.8 6 14.6 23 36.1 16 13.3 37 25.9 63 24.4 33 36.9 16 41.9 63 21.7 34 16.1 128 23.0 6 14.3 12 34.8 56 20.9 56 19.5
  14. 14. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 2-2 SUMMARY TABLES FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 BRNOVICH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 44 7.0 25 8.8 9 3.9 10 10.2 13 5.1 18 11.1 9 7.7 4 4.2 32 19.5 7 7.3 21 8.7 18 13.7 23 16.5 16 9.2 21 14.5 18 16.9 9 6.8 36 9.4 44 100.0 UNFAVORABLE 81 12.9 22 7.7 24 10.4 35 33.7 1 9.1 19 7.6 19 11.2 22 18.7 21 23.8 29 17.9 44 46.9 27 11.1 53 39.7 20 14.0 58 34.1 39 27.1 39 36.8 19 14.6 61 16.1 81 100.0 GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT DOUG DUCEY 176 27.9 100 35.1 66 28.4 7 6.7 3 27.9 80 31.4 52 31.4 30 24.8 13 15.2 37 22.6 19 19.9 149 60.5 31 22.3 55 32.4 17 11.7 33 32.0 42 33.1 99 26.2 5 12.0 12 14.2 SCOTT SMITH 100 15.8 19 6.8 47 20.3 33 31.7 1 4.9 24 9.4 21 12.9 23 18.8 32 36.0 28 17.1 31 33.6 16 6.3 52 38.8 15 10.4 43 25.4 91 62.9 1 0.5 10 8.0 78 20.6 7 15.2 32 39.3 CHRISTINE JONES 76 12.0 36 12.7 21 9.0 16 15.9 2 21.1 28 10.9 22 13.4 12 9.9 14 15.6 10 5.9 16 17.5 20 8.0 20 15.3 53 38.0 1 0.6 8 5.8 11 10.4 18 14.4 50 13.2 8 17.1 5 6.7 KEN BENNETT 73 11.6 34 12.0 28 12.0 10 9.4 2 17.3 25 9.7 20 12.3 19 15.9 9 10.4 53 32.4 3 3.0 20 8.2 29 22.0 12 8.5 28 16.7 10 6.7 25 23.7 17 13.0 53 13.9 11 23.6 12 14.7 ANDREW THOMAS 33 5.2 12 4.3 10 4.5 11 10.4 16 6.2 4 2.5 12 9.8 1 1.2 8 5.2 11 11.4 10 4.0 12 8.6 3 2.1 15 8.7 3 2.1 13 12.3 5 4.0 17 4.4 1 3.3 12 15.0 AL MELVIN 15 2.4 8 2.9 5 2.2 1 1.3 8 3.0 5 2.9 1 0.8 1 1.5 0.2 2 1.7 5 2.0 2 1.8 5 3.2 3 1.5 2 1.4 2 1.5 5 4.1 5 1.2 2 2.0 FRANK RIGGS 12 1.9 7 2.5 4 1.7 1 1.1 6 2.2 5 3.1 2 1.9 6 3.4 3 3.7 1 0.6 6 4.7 3 2.0 6 3.7 1 0.4 9 8.7 1 0.9 10 2.6 6 12.8 2 2.6 UNDECIDED 146 23.1 67 23.7 51 22.0 24 23.5 3 28.8 70 27.3 36 21.5 24 20.1 16 18.2 22 13.2 9 9.2 25 10.4 12 8.9 19 13.5 19 11.0 13 9.0 11 10.9 29 22.5 68 18.0 7 16.1 5 5.7
  15. 15. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 2-3 SUMMARY TABLES GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 BRNOVICH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 44 7.0 11 14.3 5 3.0 8 10.0 6 46.2 7 6.8 1 4.4 7 4.9 8 4.8 35 13.0 2 0.8 11 9.6 18 14.6 7 7.8 8 2.7 14 17.8 9 17.8 12 13.4 9 2.1 UNFAVORABLE 81 12.9 12 16.3 12 6.6 5 7.2 2 10.8 2 16.9 32 32.1 12 36.9 5 3.2 34 20.6 42 15.7 5 2.6 15 13.5 31 24.9 24 26.4 11 3.6 14 17.3 11 20.4 32 36.1 24 5.9 GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT DOUG DUCEY 176 27.9 176 100.0 60 36.5 73 27.3 42 21.3 42 37.6 28 22.7 27 29.6 78 25.9 30 37.0 19 35.7 23 25.1 104 25.6 SCOTT SMITH 100 15.8 100 100.0 24 14.5 49 18.2 27 13.6 17 15.0 26 20.4 17 18.8 40 13.3 5 6.2 10 18.7 27 30.4 57 14.1 CHRISTINE JONES 76 12.0 76 100.0 16 9.8 43 16.2 16 8.1 13 12.0 30 24.2 9 9.3 23 7.7 8 10.1 11 20.5 11 11.9 46 11.3 KEN BENNETT 73 11.6 73 100.0 20 12.0 40 15.0 13 6.8 14 12.3 24 18.9 7 7.1 29 9.8 8 10.3 9 17.6 10 11.0 46 11.3 ANDREW THOMAS 33 5.2 33 100.0 7 4.2 16 5.9 10 5.2 6 5.1 3 2.8 18 19.4 6 2.0 7 8.1 1 1.0 13 14.0 13 3.3 AL MELVIN 15 2.4 15 100.0 9 5.6 1 0.6 4 2.0 8 7.3 2 1.3 1 1.6 4 1.2 4 5.0 2 2.6 8 2.1 FRANK RIGGS 12 1.9 12 100.0 3 1.6 7 2.7 2 1.2 3 2.3 3 3.1 7 2.2 6 7.0 2 1.7 5 1.3 UNDECIDED 146 23.1 146 100.0 26 15.8 38 14.1 82 41.6 9 8.3 12 9.6 10 11.1 114 38.0 13 16.3 3 6.4 3 3.3 126 31.1
  16. 16. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 2-4 SUMMARY TABLES GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 BRNOVICH IMAGE RATING FAVORABLE 44 7.0 12 5.2 22 9.3 41 7.3 3 5.1 UNFAVORABLE 81 12.9 35 15.5 36 15.1 75 13.3 6 10.0 GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT DOUG DUCEY 176 27.9 58 25.6 72 30.1 160 28.4 15 24.2 SCOTT SMITH 100 15.8 31 13.5 43 17.7 99 17.5 1 0.8 CHRISTINE JONES 76 12.0 34 15.0 31 12.8 69 12.3 6 9.7 KEN BENNETT 73 11.6 18 8.1 35 14.8 66 11.8 7 10.9 ANDREW THOMAS 33 5.2 12 5.4 15 6.4 33 5.9 AL MELVIN 15 2.4 9 4.1 4 1.6 7 1.2 8 12.9 FRANK RIGGS 12 1.9 4 1.9 3 1.1 12 2.2 UNDECIDED 146 23.1 60 26.4 37 15.5 118 20.9 1 100.0 26 41.4
  17. 17. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 3-1 SUMMARY TABLES GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 GOP ATTORNEY GENERAL BALLOT MARK BRNOVICH 268 42.6 136 45.0 115 47.8 21 34.6 132 40.4 70 35.9 60 47.8 23 51.7 18 28.4 61 50.8 60 41.5 107 41.3 30 34.2 9 23.1 134 46.3 95 44.5 229 41.2 22 56.2 17 49.9 139 51.5 106 36.5 TOM HORNE 165 26.2 95 31.3 78 32.3 16 26.5 71 21.5 45 22.9 26 20.6 18 40.0 10 15.1 29 23.9 36 25.0 73 28.4 27 30.3 17 46.0 70 24.1 51 24.0 146 26.3 11 28.2 8 22.2 53 19.6 99 34.1 UNDECIDED 196 31.2 72 23.7 48 20.0 23 38.9 125 38.1 81 41.2 39 31.6 4 8.3 36 56.5 30 25.3 48 33.5 78 30.3 31 35.5 12 30.9 86 29.6 68 31.6 180 32.5 6 15.6 10 27.8 78 28.9 85 29.3 GOP SOS BALLOT MICHELE REAGAN 125 19.8 67 22.1 53 22.1 14 22.6 58 17.7 26 13.5 32 25.4 1 2.3 17 26.7 24 19.8 30 20.6 54 20.7 10 10.9 6 15.5 77 26.5 33 15.2 114 20.6 5 12.4 6 16.4 73 27.2 40 13.8 WIL CARDON 112 17.8 69 22.8 53 22.0 16 26.4 43 13.1 32 16.4 11 8.7 1 2.2 9 13.9 26 21.8 28 19.0 49 18.9 25 28.4 7 17.4 33 11.4 48 22.2 97 17.4 6 15.3 9 27.1 45 16.8 60 20.8 JUSTIN PIERCE 92 14.7 28 9.4 26 10.7 3 4.4 64 19.6 39 19.9 25 20.1 31 70.4 8 12.6 10 8.4 15 10.5 28 10.9 3 3.9 2 6.4 55 19.1 31 14.5 70 12.6 21 53.0 1 4.3 25 9.1 65 22.4 UNDECIDED 301 47.7 138 45.7 109 45.2 28 46.6 162 49.6 98 50.2 57 45.8 11 25.2 29 46.8 60 50.0 72 50.0 128 49.5 50 56.8 23 60.7 125 43.0 103 48.0 275 49.5 8 19.2 18 52.1 126 46.9 125 43.1 GOP TREASURER BALLOT HUGH HALLMAN 90 14.3 31 10.1 20 8.4 10 17.0 59 18.1 35 18.0 24 19.3 24 53.9 7 10.9 16 13.0 15 10.3 29 11.1 4 5.1 2 4.0 46 16.0 38 17.6 77 13.9 13 31.5 41 15.3 45 15.7 JEFF DEWIT 81 12.9 55 18.2 47 19.3 9 14.3 26 8.0 19 9.5 8 6.0 5 10.5 15 24.2 19 16.3 15 10.6 27 10.3 8 9.6 4 11.9 38 13.0 31 14.3 68 12.2 5 13.3 8 23.2 31 11.5 45 15.4 RANDY PULLEN 53 8.4 31 10.1 24 9.9 7 11.0 22 6.8 15 7.8 7 5.7 1 2.3 0.6 11 9.0 18 12.1 23 9.0 6 7.3 3 8.0 25 8.7 18 8.5 42 7.5 10 25.0 1 3.8 25 9.2 25 8.7 UNDECIDED 406 64.4 186 61.6 150 62.4 35 57.7 220 67.1 127 64.7 86 69.0 15 33.3 40 64.2 74 61.8 97 67.0 180 69.6 69 78.0 29 76.0 181 62.3 128 59.6 369 66.3 12 30.2 25 73.1 172 64.0 174 60.2
  18. 18. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 3-2 SUMMARY TABLES FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 GOP ATTORNEY GENERAL BALLOT MARK BRNOVICH 268 42.6 94 33.1 105 45.3 63 61.5 6 55.8 73 28.5 75 45.4 69 57.6 51 57.7 82 50.1 60 64.1 95 38.6 79 59.1 69 48.8 73 43.0 69 47.4 66 63.3 5 4.2 252 66.8 35 78.6 42 51.9 TOM HORNE 165 26.2 95 33.4 53 22.6 17 16.2 1 11.3 84 32.7 45 27.4 20 16.4 16 18.5 46 28.1 21 22.2 86 35.0 32 24.0 45 31.9 54 31.9 40 27.5 22 20.7 103 80.6 24 6.3 8 17.9 34 41.9 UNDECIDED 196 31.2 95 33.5 75 32.2 23 22.3 4 32.9 99 38.8 45 27.1 31 25.9 21 23.8 36 21.9 13 13.7 65 26.4 23 17.0 27 19.3 43 25.1 36 25.1 17 16.0 19 15.2 101 26.8 2 3.4 5 6.2 GOP SOS BALLOT MICHELE REAGAN 125 19.8 49 17.3 53 23.0 21 20.1 2 16.2 42 16.5 36 22.0 36 29.7 10 11.9 42 25.6 29 30.7 51 20.7 40 30.0 49 34.5 33 19.3 42 29.1 31 30.1 32 25.2 77 20.5 18 41.0 31 38.3 WIL CARDON 112 17.8 49 17.3 41 17.8 18 17.5 4 32.9 49 19.3 38 23.1 14 11.6 10 11.8 44 27.0 16 16.9 66 26.7 15 11.2 43 30.6 31 18.3 34 23.7 28 26.8 24 18.5 81 21.4 11 24.3 15 18.6 JUSTIN PIERCE 92 14.7 42 14.7 25 10.9 25 24.6 43 16.8 12 7.4 21 17.7 16 18.2 14 8.3 27 28.5 34 13.9 36 26.9 14 9.7 43 25.0 18 12.8 21 20.5 17 13.1 48 12.8 7 16.3 24 29.9 UNDECIDED 301 47.7 144 50.7 113 48.4 39 37.7 6 50.9 122 47.5 79 47.5 49 41.1 51 58.0 64 39.2 22 23.9 95 38.7 43 31.9 35 25.2 64 37.4 50 34.4 24 22.6 55 43.2 171 45.3 8 18.4 11 13.2 GOP TREASURER BALLOT HUGH HALLMAN 90 14.3 26 9.3 31 13.3 32 31.3 1 5.0 23 8.9 18 11.0 32 26.5 17 19.3 24 14.4 32 33.8 31 12.8 40 29.8 15 10.8 48 28.5 34 23.7 24 23.2 13 10.1 61 16.1 12 27.1 32 39.9 JEFF DEWIT 81 12.9 36 12.5 37 16.0 8 7.8 1 4.9 34 13.2 35 21.2 9 7.7 3 3.6 29 17.6 14 14.4 46 18.7 10 7.6 42 29.7 17 10.0 12 8.6 29 27.9 17 13.1 52 13.7 14 32.5 14 17.3 RANDY PULLEN 53 8.4 25 8.9 15 6.5 9 8.8 4 32.1 24 9.5 15 8.9 7 5.9 7 7.6 25 15.1 7 7.8 25 10.2 15 11.4 13 9.2 20 11.6 18 12.3 14 13.0 13 10.0 38 10.0 9 21.2 11 13.3 UNDECIDED 406 64.4 197 69.3 149 64.2 53 52.1 6 58.0 175 68.4 97 58.8 72 59.9 61 69.6 87 53.0 41 43.9 143 58.3 69 51.2 71 50.3 85 49.9 80 55.5 38 35.8 85 66.7 227 60.2 9 19.3 24 29.5
  19. 19. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 3-3 SUMMARY TABLES GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 GOP ATTORNEY GENERAL BALLOT MARK BRNOVICH 268 42.6 40 54.8 73 41.8 43 57.5 1 10.1 7 58.6 49 49.1 16 48.2 38 25.9 268 100.0 53 47.1 75 60.0 32 34.4 109 36.2 47 57.8 28 52.6 39 43.7 154 38.0 TOM HORNE 165 26.2 20 26.9 60 34.4 16 21.4 9 62.9 3 21.4 24 24.1 7 20.9 26 17.9 165 100.0 31 28.1 35 28.1 30 32.6 69 22.8 21 26.0 19 35.2 27 30.0 99 24.3 UNDECIDED 196 31.2 13 18.3 42 23.8 16 21.1 4 27.0 2 19.9 27 26.8 10 30.8 82 56.1 196 100.0 28 24.8 15 11.9 30 33.0 123 41.0 13 16.2 6 12.3 24 26.3 153 37.7 GOP SOS BALLOT MICHELE REAGAN 125 19.8 24 32.2 28 16.2 30 40.1 2 11.1 26 25.6 3 10.5 12 8.2 35 21.2 75 27.9 15 7.6 125 100.0 21 26.0 15 27.9 19 20.9 70 17.3 WIL CARDON 112 17.8 14 18.8 42 24.0 13 17.8 8 54.9 3 21.4 17 16.9 6 17.4 9 6.4 31 19.0 53 19.7 28 14.2 112 100.0 32 39.8 19 35.5 17 19.2 44 10.7 JUSTIN PIERCE 92 14.7 7 8.9 27 15.6 9 11.3 1 10.1 3 23.7 17 17.5 18 54.1 10 7.0 30 18.2 32 11.9 30 15.5 92 100.0 17 21.4 12 22.9 40 44.1 23 5.7 UNDECIDED 301 47.7 29 40.0 78 44.2 23 30.8 4 23.9 7 54.9 40 40.0 6 18.0 114 78.4 69 41.5 109 40.5 123 62.7 301 100.0 10 12.9 7 13.6 14 15.8 269 66.2 GOP TREASURER BALLOT HUGH HALLMAN 90 14.3 10 13.5 23 12.8 11 14.2 2 15.6 2 12.4 27 27.4 13 38.2 3 2.0 27 16.3 39 14.6 24 12.1 17 15.4 19 15.0 40 42.9 14 4.7 90 100.0 JEFF DEWIT 81 12.9 8 11.4 30 17.1 8 10.9 4 27.2 6 46.2 5 5.0 7 19.9 13 9.1 21 12.8 47 17.5 13 6.7 32 28.9 21 16.9 17 18.8 10 3.5 81 100.0 RANDY PULLEN 53 8.4 9 12.7 19 10.8 11 14.4 10 10.0 1 1.7 3 2.3 19 11.3 28 10.4 6 3.3 19 16.8 15 11.8 12 13.1 7 2.4 53 100.0 UNDECIDED 406 64.4 46 62.4 104 59.3 46 60.6 8 57.3 5 41.4 57 57.6 13 40.2 126 86.5 99 59.6 154 57.5 153 77.9 44 38.9 70 56.2 23 25.2 269 89.4 406 100.0
  20. 20. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 3-4 SUMMARY TABLES GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 GOP ATTORNEY GENERAL BALLOT MARK BRNOVICH 268 42.6 58 25.5 144 59.9 250 44.3 18 28.1 TOM HORNE 165 26.2 86 37.8 44 18.5 138 24.4 27 43.0 UNDECIDED 196 31.2 84 36.7 52 21.6 177 31.3 1 100.0 18 28.9 GOP SOS BALLOT MICHELE REAGAN 125 19.8 46 20.2 50 21.0 119 21.1 6 9.2 WIL CARDON 112 17.8 52 22.9 44 18.4 98 17.3 14 22.1 JUSTIN PIERCE 92 14.7 39 16.9 36 15.0 89 15.7 1 100.0 2 3.8 UNDECIDED 301 47.7 91 39.9 110 45.6 259 45.9 41 64.8 GOP TREASURER BALLOT HUGH HALLMAN 90 14.3 34 15.1 46 19.1 88 15.5 2 3.7 JEFF DEWIT 81 12.9 38 16.7 31 12.8 76 13.5 5 8.3 RANDY PULLEN 53 8.4 21 9.2 28 11.6 49 8.6 4 6.4 UNDECIDED 406 64.4 135 59.1 136 56.5 352 62.4 1 100.0 52 81.6
  21. 21. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 4-1 T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 REPUBLICAN 541 85.9 257 85.1 201 83.2 57 94.0 284 86.6 176 89.9 100 80.6 41 91.9 52 82.6 103 86.1 129 89.0 217 83.8 79 89.2 31 82.4 248 85.6 183 85.6 482 86.8 32 79.1 28 79.6 230 85.6 257 88.9 INDEPENDENT 89 14.1 45 14.9 40 16.8 4 6.0 44 13.4 20 10.1 24 19.4 4 8.1 11 17.4 17 13.9 16 11.0 42 16.2 10 10.8 7 17.6 42 14.4 31 14.4 73 13.2 8 20.9 7 20.4 39 14.4 32 11.1
  22. 22. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 4-2 T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 REPUBLICAN 541 85.9 249 87.9 204 87.5 78 76.2 10 89.3 233 91.1 148 89.5 88 73.4 71 81.2 141 86.0 81 86.5 222 90.3 110 82.1 125 88.6 142 83.4 122 84.2 91 87.2 111 87.1 326 86.5 36 81.6 67 82.1 INDEPENDENT 89 14.1 34 12.1 29 12.5 24 23.8 1 10.7 23 8.9 17 10.5 32 26.6 17 18.8 23 14.0 13 13.5 24 9.7 24 17.9 16 11.4 28 16.6 23 15.8 13 12.8 16 12.9 51 13.5 8 18.4 15 17.9
  23. 23. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 4-3 T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 REPUBLICAN 541 85.9 59 81.0 160 91.0 58 77.0 12 79.9 12 100.0 84 84.5 29 87.5 126 86.8 144 87.3 223 83.1 174 88.5 102 90.7 99 79.3 81 88.1 259 86.2 76 93.7 50 94.8 80 89.4 334 82.4 INDEPENDENT 89 14.1 14 19.0 16 9.0 17 23.0 3 20.1 15 15.5 4 12.5 19 13.2 21 12.7 45 16.9 23 11.5 10 9.3 26 20.7 11 11.9 42 13.8 5 6.3 3 5.2 10 10.6 71 17.6
  24. 24. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 4-4 T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 REPUBLICAN 541 85.9 205 90.0 210 87.4 486 86.1 1 100.0 53 83.8 INDEPENDENT 89 14.1 23 10.0 30 12.6 79 13.9 10 16.2
  25. 25. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 5-1 T2. As you may know, independent voters can vote in the August primary election. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 89 100.0 45 100.0 40 100.0 4 100.0 44 100.0 20 100.0 24 100.0 4 100.0 11 100.0 17 100.0 16 100.0 42 100.0 10 100.0 7 100.0 42 100.0 31 100.0 73 100.0 8 100.0 7 100.0 39 100.0 32 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 71 79.5 35 78.5 31 77.5 3 84.9 35 80.6 13 68.2 22 90.7 4 100.0 10 87.1 11 64.7 10 59.8 37 89.2 7 78.4 5 81.4 31 75.2 26 85.3 56 76.3 8 100.0 6 88.6 32 83.3 26 80.2 VERY LIKELY 14 15.8 8 16.9 7 18.1 8.3 6 14.6 6 31.8 0.6 6 35.3 6 37.1 2 5.4 2 21.6 1 9.0 9 21.1 3 8.3 13 18.3 1 7.9 6 16.1 6 18.6 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 4 4.7 2 4.6 2 4.5 6.8 2 4.8 2 8.7 1 12.9 3.1 2 5.4 1 9.6 2 3.7 2 6.4 4 5.3 3.5 0.6 1.2
  26. 26. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 5-2 T2. As you may know, independent voters can vote in the August primary election. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 89 100.0 34 100.0 29 100.0 24 100.0 1 100.0 23 100.0 17 100.0 32 100.0 17 100.0 23 100.0 13 100.0 24 100.0 24 100.0 16 100.0 28 100.0 23 100.0 13 100.0 16 100.0 51 100.0 8 100.0 15 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 71 79.5 28 81.3 23 78.7 20 80.3 33.4 20 86.9 15 83.9 21 64.8 15 93.4 22 96.9 12 93.7 24 100.0 21 88.6 16 98.5 27 96.6 23 100.0 13 98.2 16 95.7 41 80.1 8 100.0 14 98.3 VERY LIKELY 14 15.8 6 18.0 4 15.5 3 13.9 3 12.1 1 7.2 10 30.8 0.9 1 2.4 1 4.4 2 10.3 1 2.0 1 4.3 10 18.7 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 4 4.7 0.7 2 5.9 1 5.8 1 66.6 1.1 2 8.9 1 4.4 1 5.7 0.6 1.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.8 1 1.3 1.7
  27. 27. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 5-3 T2. As you may know, independent voters can vote in the August primary election. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 89 100.0 14 100.0 16 100.0 17 100.0 3 100.0 15 100.0 4 100.0 19 100.0 21 100.0 45 100.0 23 100.0 10 100.0 26 100.0 11 100.0 42 100.0 5 100.0 3 100.0 10 100.0 71 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 71 79.5 11 77.8 13 82.6 11 63.1 3 100.0 15 100.0 4 100.0 13 69.1 19 89.5 35 77.7 17 74.1 10 100.0 17 64.7 10 93.6 33 79.9 5 100.0 3 100.0 8 82.6 55 76.9 VERY LIKELY 14 15.8 3 22.2 2 13.0 4 25.9 4 22.8 2 10.5 8 17.5 4 17.2 7 27.9 1 6.4 6 14.7 14 19.6 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 4 4.7 1 4.4 2 11.0 2 8.1 2 4.8 2 8.7 2 7.4 2 5.4 2 17.4 2 3.5
  28. 28. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 5-4 T2. As you may know, independent voters can vote in the August primary election. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 89 100.0 23 100.0 30 100.0 79 100.0 10 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 71 79.5 16 69.6 30 98.2 64 81.0 7 68.2 VERY LIKELY 14 15.8 6 28.0 1.0 11 14.5 3 25.6 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 4 4.7 1 2.4 0.8 4 4.5 1 6.2
  29. 29. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 6-1 T3. And if the primary election were being held today, would you choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 89 100.0 45 100.0 40 100.0 4 100.0 44 100.0 20 100.0 24 100.0 4 100.0 11 100.0 17 100.0 16 100.0 42 100.0 10 100.0 7 100.0 42 100.0 31 100.0 73 100.0 8 100.0 7 100.0 39 100.0 32 100.0 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 89 100.0 45 100.0 40 100.0 4 100.0 44 100.0 20 100.0 24 100.0 4 100.0 11 100.0 17 100.0 16 100.0 42 100.0 10 100.0 7 100.0 42 100.0 31 100.0 73 100.0 8 100.0 7 100.0 39 100.0 32 100.0
  30. 30. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 6-2 T3. And if the primary election were being held today, would you choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 89 100.0 34 100.0 29 100.0 24 100.0 1 100.0 23 100.0 17 100.0 32 100.0 17 100.0 23 100.0 13 100.0 24 100.0 24 100.0 16 100.0 28 100.0 23 100.0 13 100.0 16 100.0 51 100.0 8 100.0 15 100.0 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 89 100.0 34 100.0 29 100.0 24 100.0 1 100.0 23 100.0 17 100.0 32 100.0 17 100.0 23 100.0 13 100.0 24 100.0 24 100.0 16 100.0 28 100.0 23 100.0 13 100.0 16 100.0 51 100.0 8 100.0 15 100.0
  31. 31. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 6-3 T3. And if the primary election were being held today, would you choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 89 100.0 14 100.0 16 100.0 17 100.0 3 100.0 15 100.0 4 100.0 19 100.0 21 100.0 45 100.0 23 100.0 10 100.0 26 100.0 11 100.0 42 100.0 5 100.0 3 100.0 10 100.0 71 100.0 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 89 100.0 14 100.0 16 100.0 17 100.0 3 100.0 15 100.0 4 100.0 19 100.0 21 100.0 45 100.0 23 100.0 10 100.0 26 100.0 11 100.0 42 100.0 5 100.0 3 100.0 10 100.0 71 100.0
  32. 32. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 6-4 T3. And if the primary election were being held today, would you choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as independent or unaffiliated voters) GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 89 100.0 23 100.0 30 100.0 79 100.0 10 100.0 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 89 100.0 23 100.0 30 100.0 79 100.0 10 100.0
  33. 33. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 7-1 T4. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as registered Republicans) GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 541 100.0 257 100.0 201 100.0 57 100.0 284 100.0 176 100.0 100 100.0 41 100.0 52 100.0 103 100.0 129 100.0 217 100.0 79 100.0 31 100.0 248 100.0 183 100.0 482 100.0 32 100.0 28 100.0 230 100.0 257 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 500 92.4 246 95.6 192 95.8 54 94.6 254 89.6 163 92.5 84 83.7 41 100.0 49 93.8 93 90.2 122 94.9 196 90.4 73 92.8 28 89.4 228 91.8 172 93.7 441 91.6 31 99.5 28 100.0 203 88.1 245 95.5 VERY LIKELY 31 5.7 9 3.4 7 3.5 2 3.4 22 7.7 11 6.1 11 11.1 3 6.2 9 9.1 6 4.6 12 5.6 3 4.1 1 4.4 17 7.0 9 4.9 31 6.3 0.5 21 9.0 8 3.3 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 10 1.9 3 1.0 1 0.7 1 1.9 8 2.7 2 1.4 5 5.2 1 0.7 1 0.6 9 4.0 2 3.1 2 6.2 3 1.2 3 1.5 10 2.1 7 2.8 3 1.2
  34. 34. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 7-2 T4. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as registered Republicans) FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 541 100.0 249 100.0 204 100.0 78 100.0 10 100.0 233 100.0 148 100.0 88 100.0 71 100.0 141 100.0 81 100.0 222 100.0 110 100.0 125 100.0 142 100.0 122 100.0 91 100.0 111 100.0 326 100.0 36 100.0 67 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 500 92.4 242 97.0 178 87.4 71 90.6 10 97.5 223 95.6 129 87.3 82 92.9 66 92.3 138 98.1 78 96.0 212 95.5 106 96.6 115 92.6 140 98.3 118 97.3 89 97.0 105 94.6 310 95.1 35 96.2 64 95.8 VERY LIKELY 31 5.7 7 2.7 20 9.6 4 5.6 9 3.9 12 8.1 5 5.3 5 7.0 1 0.6 2 2.5 6 2.5 3 2.4 7 6.0 2 1.6 3 2.7 6 5.2 11 3.5 1 2.3 1 1.0 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 10 1.9 1 0.3 6 3.0 3 3.7 2.5 1 0.5 7 4.6 2 1.8 1 0.8 2 1.4 1 1.5 4 2.0 1 1.1 2 1.4 0.2 3 3.0 0.2 5 1.5 1 1.5 2 3.2
  35. 35. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 7-3 T4. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as registered Republicans) GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 541 100.0 59 100.0 160 100.0 58 100.0 12 100.0 12 100.0 84 100.0 29 100.0 126 100.0 144 100.0 223 100.0 174 100.0 102 100.0 99 100.0 81 100.0 259 100.0 76 100.0 50 100.0 80 100.0 334 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 500 92.4 57 95.6 144 90.2 51 86.8 10 85.1 12 100.0 83 98.3 28 98.1 115 91.1 129 89.7 213 95.7 157 90.6 95 93.9 90 90.7 80 98.7 235 90.6 72 94.7 46 91.8 79 98.3 303 90.6 VERY LIKELY 31 5.7 2 3.2 12 7.4 6 10.2 2 12.9 1 1.7 1 1.9 8 6.0 14 9.6 6 2.6 11 6.4 5 5.3 7 6.6 19 7.3 2 2.9 3 6.0 25 7.6 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 10 1.9 1 1.2 4 2.4 2 3.0 2.1 4 2.9 1 0.7 4 1.7 5 3.0 1 0.8 3 2.7 1 1.3 6 2.1 2 2.3 1 2.2 1 1.7 6 1.8
  36. 36. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 7-4 T4. How likely are you to vote in the August primary election? (Asked only to respondents who self-identified as registered Republicans) GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 541 100.0 205 100.0 210 100.0 486 100.0 1 100.0 53 100.0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 500 92.4 193 94.3 197 93.6 450 92.4 1 100.0 49 92.3 VERY LIKELY 31 5.7 8 4.0 10 4.9 29 5.9 2 4.1 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 10 1.9 4 1.7 3 1.5 8 1.7 2 3.6
  37. 37. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 8-1 T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Bennett? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 70 11.1 30 10.0 18 7.6 11 19.0 40 12.1 23 11.8 10 8.2 -16 -37.4 -0.2 6 5.3 37 25.3 44 17.0 16 18.6 2 5.9 18 6.2 34 15.7 82 14.7 -9 -23.5 -2 -6.4 29 10.6 23 8.1 FAVORABLE 164 26.0 81 26.8 61 25.4 19 31.7 83 25.3 44 22.6 32 25.7 4 8.3 12 19.5 33 27.8 50 34.5 64 25.0 23 25.8 6 15.7 70 24.3 65 30.2 152 27.4 5 12.9 7 18.9 71 26.2 74 25.7 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 51 16.8 43 17.8 8 12.7 43 13.1 21 10.8 22 17.5 20 45.7 12 19.8 27 22.6 13 9.2 21 8.0 6 7.1 4 9.8 53 18.2 31 14.5 70 12.7 15 36.4 9 25.2 42 15.6 51 17.6 NO OPINION 217 34.5 101 33.4 83 34.4 18 29.3 116 35.6 79 40.5 37 29.4 17 39.3 18 28.1 25 21.2 49 33.5 108 42.0 32 35.8 15 38.6 94 32.3 78 36.3 186 33.4 16 40.2 16 46.1 94 35.0 96 33.3 NEVER HEARD OF 136 21.6 57 19.0 42 17.3 16 26.2 78 24.0 48 24.5 30 24.4 3 6.7 14 22.7 30 25.2 32 22.0 57 21.9 22 24.7 12 32.3 65 22.3 37 17.5 128 23.1 4 10.5 3 9.8 52 19.4 62 21.4 UNSURE 19 3.1 12 4.1 12 5.1 7 2.1 3 1.6 4 3.0 6 9.9 4 3.2 1 0.8 8 3.1 6 6.6 1 3.6 9 3.0 3 1.6 19 3.5 10 3.8 6 1.9 NAME ID 475 75.4 233 76.9 187 77.6 44 73.8 242 73.9 145 73.9 90 72.6 41 93.3 42 67.4 86 71.7 112 77.3 194 74.9 61 68.7 24 64.1 217 74.7 173 81.0 408 73.4 36 89.5 31 90.2 207 76.8 222 76.7 HARD NAME ID 257 40.9 132 43.5 104 43.3 27 44.5 126 38.4 65 33.4 54 43.2 24 54.1 25 39.3 60 50.4 63 43.7 85 33.0 29 32.9 10 25.5 123 42.5 96 44.7 223 40.0 20 49.4 15 44.1 113 41.8 125 43.3
  38. 38. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 8-2 T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Bennett? FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 70 11.1 52 18.3 36 15.4 -19 -18.5 1 12.2 38 14.8 36 21.9 5 4.5 -9 -10.6 164 100.0 -94 -100.0 67 27.2 -18 -13.7 14 10.3 8 4.6 23 15.9 11 10.5 37 29.2 17 4.4 25 56.6 -15 -18.0 FAVORABLE 164 26.0 80 28.1 59 25.6 22 21.0 3 28.0 67 26.3 54 32.7 29 24.4 13 14.5 164 100.0 94 38.4 41 30.4 45 31.9 60 35.1 57 39.2 50 48.0 44 34.9 101 26.8 32 71.9 29 35.9 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 28 9.8 24 10.2 41 39.5 2 15.8 30 11.6 18 10.8 24 20.0 22 25.2 94 100.0 27 11.2 59 44.1 30 21.7 52 30.5 34 23.3 39 37.5 7 5.6 85 22.5 7 15.3 44 53.9 NO OPINION 217 34.5 101 35.5 94 40.4 21 20.2 2 18.5 96 37.5 61 37.1 31 25.5 29 33.4 69 28.3 28 20.5 48 33.9 36 21.2 42 29.3 7 6.9 43 34.1 118 31.2 5 10.7 2 2.8 NEVER HEARD OF 136 21.6 61 21.5 51 22.1 19 19.0 4 37.7 53 20.7 28 16.8 32 26.5 23 26.5 46 18.9 7 5.0 17 12.3 16 9.3 12 8.1 6 5.3 28 21.9 68 18.0 1 2.0 4 5.5 UNSURE 19 3.1 15 5.2 4 1.8 0.3 10 3.9 4 2.7 4 3.6 0.3 8 3.3 0.1 7 3.9 2 2.3 5 3.5 6 1.6 2 1.9 NAME ID 475 75.4 208 73.3 177 76.1 83 80.7 7 62.3 193 75.4 133 80.6 84 69.9 64 73.1 164 100.0 94 100.0 191 77.9 127 95.0 123 87.6 148 86.8 133 91.9 97 92.4 95 74.5 304 80.5 44 98.0 75 92.6 HARD NAME ID 257 40.9 107 37.8 83 35.7 62 60.5 5 43.8 97 37.9 72 43.5 53 44.4 35 39.7 164 100.0 94 100.0 122 49.6 100 74.5 75 53.6 112 65.6 90 62.5 90 85.5 52 40.5 186 49.3 39 87.2 73 89.9
  39. 39. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 8-3 T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Bennett? GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 70 11.1 50 68.4 18 10.5 -7 -8.9 -1 -8.8 2 17.8 -4 -3.5 -2 -6.5 13 8.9 25 15.2 22 8.2 23 11.7 28 25.3 13 10.5 -13 -14.2 42 13.9 15 18.8 17 32.8 -8 -9.1 46 11.2 FAVORABLE 164 26.0 53 72.2 37 21.1 10 12.8 2.0 6 46.0 28 28.0 8 25.7 22 14.9 46 27.8 82 30.5 36 18.3 44 39.4 42 33.5 14 14.6 64 21.4 29 35.4 25 46.6 24 26.2 87 21.4 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 3 3.8 19 10.6 16 21.7 2 10.8 3 28.2 31 31.6 11 32.2 9 5.9 21 12.6 60 22.4 13 6.6 16 14.1 29 23.0 27 28.9 22 7.4 14 16.6 7 13.8 32 35.2 41 10.1 NO OPINION 217 34.5 10 13.7 68 38.5 30 39.5 11 74.0 1 8.9 34 34.3 10 30.7 54 36.8 51 30.9 78 29.1 88 45.0 43 38.5 28 22.1 43 46.7 103 34.4 25 30.9 17 31.7 27 29.6 149 36.7 NEVER HEARD OF 136 21.6 3 4.7 45 25.5 19 25.7 2 13.2 2 16.9 6 6.1 4 11.5 54 37.3 40 24.3 45 16.9 51 25.7 6 5.5 25 20.1 6 7.0 98 32.7 14 17.1 3 5.0 8 9.0 111 27.4 UNSURE 19 3.1 4 5.5 8 4.3 0.2 7 5.1 7 4.4 3 1.2 9 4.4 3 2.4 2 1.2 3 2.8 12 4.1 2 2.9 18 4.4 NAME ID 475 75.4 66 89.8 123 70.2 56 74.1 13 86.8 10 83.1 94 93.9 29 88.5 84 57.6 118 71.3 220 82.0 137 69.8 103 92.1 98 78.7 83 90.3 190 63.2 67 82.9 49 92.1 82 91.0 277 68.2 HARD NAME ID 257 40.9 56 76.1 56 31.7 26 34.6 2 12.8 9 74.2 59 59.6 19 57.9 30 20.8 67 40.4 142 52.9 49 24.8 60 53.6 71 56.5 40 43.5 87 28.8 42 52.0 32 60.4 55 61.4 128 31.5
  40. 40. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 8-4 T5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Bennett? GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 70 11.1 35 15.4 20 8.4 67 11.8 3 5.1 FAVORABLE 164 26.0 67 29.2 65 27.0 155 27.4 9 14.3 UNFAVORABLE 94 14.9 31 13.8 45 18.6 88 15.5 6 9.2 NO OPINION 217 34.5 74 32.5 73 30.6 189 33.5 28 43.9 NEVER HEARD OF 136 21.6 46 20.3 51 21.3 119 21.1 1 100.0 15 23.8 UNSURE 19 3.1 10 4.2 6 2.5 14 2.4 6 8.7 NAME ID 475 75.4 172 75.5 183 76.1 432 76.5 43 67.5 HARD NAME ID 257 40.9 98 43.0 110 45.6 242 42.9 15 23.5
  41. 41. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 9-1 T6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Ducey? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 111 17.7 78 25.8 63 25.9 15 24.7 33 10.2 27 13.9 -1 -0.7 -17 -37.6 17 27.6 22 18.7 33 23.1 55 21.2 19 21.0 7 17.2 48 16.6 38 17.9 114 20.4 -10 -25.9 8 23.6 -3 -1.2 90 31.2 FAVORABLE 245 39.0 135 44.5 109 45.3 25 41.2 111 33.8 67 34.3 37 29.3 5 10.4 27 43.3 47 39.3 64 44.1 103 39.7 29 32.9 11 29.2 122 42.2 83 38.9 222 39.9 9 22.6 15 42.1 79 29.2 137 47.3 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 57 18.7 47 19.4 10 16.5 77 23.6 40 20.4 37 30.0 21 48.0 10 15.7 25 20.6 31 21.1 48 18.5 10 11.9 5 12.0 74 25.6 45 21.0 108 19.5 19 48.5 6 18.5 82 30.4 47 16.1 NO OPINION 194 30.8 77 25.6 67 27.9 10 16.2 117 35.6 73 37.5 43 34.7 13 28.9 23 36.4 34 28.8 38 26.5 86 33.1 32 36.3 14 37.7 78 27.1 69 32.4 176 31.7 10 24.9 8 23.9 82 30.4 81 27.9 NEVER HEARD OF 50 7.9 31 10.3 15 6.4 16 26.1 19 5.7 14 7.0 5 4.2 6 12.8 3 4.7 10 8.4 12 8.2 19 7.5 15 17.2 7 18.1 15 5.2 13 6.0 44 7.8 2 4.0 5 13.9 25 9.2 21 7.3 UNSURE 7 1.0 3 0.8 3 1.1 4 1.2 2 1.0 2 1.7 3 2.9 0.2 3 1.1 2 1.8 1 3.0 4 1.8 6 1.1 1 1.6 2 0.7 4 1.3 NAME ID 574 91.0 269 88.9 223 92.6 45 73.9 305 93.0 181 92.1 117 94.1 38 87.2 60 95.3 106 88.7 133 91.7 236 91.3 71 81.0 30 78.8 275 94.8 198 92.2 506 91.1 38 96.0 29 84.5 242 90.1 264 91.4 HARD NAME ID 379 60.2 191 63.3 156 64.7 35 57.7 188 57.4 107 54.6 74 59.4 26 58.4 37 59.0 72 59.9 94 65.2 150 58.2 39 44.7 16 41.1 196 67.7 128 59.8 330 59.4 28 71.1 21 60.6 160 59.6 184 63.5
  42. 42. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 9-2 T6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Ducey? FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 111 17.7 111 39.1 34 14.7 -31 -30.2 -3 -24.8 89 34.8 44 26.5 0.2 -22 -25.0 54 32.7 -32 -33.8 245 100.0 -134 -100.0 39 27.8 1 0.8 -4 -2.6 10 9.5 57 44.6 13 3.6 3 6.9 -26 -31.7 FAVORABLE 245 39.0 140 49.5 83 35.6 19 18.0 4 32.9 117 45.8 71 43.0 38 31.9 19 21.3 94 57.6 27 29.3 245 100.0 76 53.9 76 44.5 55 37.7 53 50.6 73 57.6 127 33.7 21 48.2 27 33.5 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 29 10.4 49 20.9 49 48.2 6 57.7 28 11.0 27 16.4 38 31.6 41 46.3 41 24.9 59 63.1 134 100.0 37 26.1 74 43.7 58 40.3 43 41.1 16 12.9 114 30.2 18 41.3 53 65.3 NO OPINION 194 30.8 86 30.5 75 32.2 32 31.1 1 7.1 89 34.7 52 31.7 36 29.6 17 19.5 24 14.7 5 5.1 25 17.5 19 11.4 26 18.0 8 7.8 31 24.3 105 27.9 4 9.3 1 1.2 NEVER HEARD OF 50 7.9 24 8.6 23 10.0 2 1.9 2.2 18 7.0 13 7.8 8 6.6 11 12.5 4 2.6 2 2.5 4 2.5 0.3 5 3.5 1 0.5 6 4.5 28 7.3 1 1.2 UNSURE 7 1.0 3 1.1 3 1.2 1 0.7 4 1.5 2 1.2 0.3 0.4 1 0.3 0.1 1 0.4 1 0.6 3 0.9 NAME ID 574 91.0 256 90.3 207 88.8 100 97.3 11 97.8 234 91.4 151 91.0 112 93.1 77 87.1 159 97.1 91 97.5 245 100.0 134 100.0 137 97.5 170 99.6 139 96.1 104 99.5 121 94.8 346 91.8 44 98.8 81 100.0 HARD NAME ID 379 60.2 170 59.9 132 56.6 68 66.2 10 90.6 145 56.7 98 59.4 76 63.5 59 67.6 135 82.4 87 92.4 245 100.0 134 100.0 113 80.0 150 88.2 113 78.1 96 91.7 90 70.5 241 63.9 40 89.5 80 98.8
  43. 43. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 9-3 T6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Ducey? GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 111 17.7 -9 -12.7 149 84.6 -1 -1.2 3 17.6 -5 -40.0 -36 -36.6 -2 -5.3 14 9.3 54 32.6 16 5.8 42 21.4 51 45.2 11 8.5 -2 -2.2 52 17.4 36 44.1 10 18.4 -9 -9.6 74 18.3 FAVORABLE 245 39.0 20 27.5 149 84.6 20 25.8 5 33.8 1 11.6 16 15.6 10 29.6 25 17.5 86 52.0 95 35.3 65 32.9 66 58.6 51 40.7 34 36.8 95 31.6 46 56.6 25 47.2 31 34.9 143 35.3 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 29 40.1 20 27.0 2 16.2 6 51.6 52 52.2 12 34.9 12 8.2 32 19.4 79 29.5 23 11.6 15 13.4 40 32.2 36 39.0 43 14.2 10 12.5 15 28.7 40 44.5 69 16.9 NO OPINION 194 30.8 18 24.4 24 13.6 27 35.8 6 37.8 4 32.3 25 24.9 12 35.5 79 54.2 40 24.4 70 26.3 83 42.4 28 24.8 27 21.3 19 20.2 121 40.2 21 25.5 13 24.1 12 13.8 148 36.5 NEVER HEARD OF 50 7.9 6 8.0 2 0.9 8 10.6 2 12.2 1 4.5 7 7.3 25 17.1 7 4.2 22 8.1 21 10.8 4 3.2 7 5.8 3 3.7 36 11.8 4 5.5 5 5.0 41 10.1 UNSURE 7 1.0 2 0.9 1 0.7 4 3.0 2 0.8 4 2.3 0.3 6 2.1 2 1.8 5 1.2 NAME ID 574 91.0 68 92.0 172 98.2 67 88.7 13 87.8 12 95.5 92 92.7 33 100.0 116 79.9 158 95.8 244 91.1 171 87.0 108 96.8 118 94.2 89 96.0 259 86.0 77 94.5 53 100.0 84 93.2 360 88.7 HARD NAME ID 379 60.2 50 67.6 149 84.6 40 52.9 7 50.1 8 63.2 67 67.7 21 64.5 37 25.7 118 71.4 174 64.8 87 44.5 81 72.0 91 72.8 70 75.8 138 45.8 56 69.1 40 75.9 71 79.4 212 52.2
  44. 44. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 9-4 T6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Doug Ducey? GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 111 17.7 68 29.9 12 4.9 103 18.2 9 13.5 FAVORABLE 245 39.0 101 44.3 88 36.5 229 40.5 17 26.4 UNFAVORABLE 134 21.3 33 14.4 76 31.6 126 22.3 8 12.9 NO OPINION 194 30.8 74 32.3 58 23.9 168 29.7 26 41.3 NEVER HEARD OF 50 7.9 17 7.5 18 7.3 37 6.6 1 100.0 11 17.5 UNSURE 7 1.0 3 1.5 2 0.7 5 1.0 1 1.8 NAME ID 574 91.0 208 91.0 221 91.9 522 92.4 51 80.7 HARD NAME ID 379 60.2 134 58.7 163 68.0 354 62.7 25 39.4
  45. 45. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 10-1 T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Jones? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) -30 -4.7 -5 -1.6 -5 -2.2 1 1.7 -25 -7.5 -5 -2.5 -16 -12.7 -18 -41.2 3 4.8 9 7.6 -12 -8.4 -11 -4.4 8 8.9 2 6.3 -23 -7.8 -17 -8.0 -22 -3.9 -6 -16.1 -2 -4.8 -14 -5.2 -7 -2.3 FAVORABLE 141 22.3 77 25.5 62 25.8 15 24.6 63 19.4 39 19.8 25 19.8 2 4.5 17 26.7 36 29.8 28 19.4 58 22.5 21 24.2 10 25.7 70 24.3 39 18.3 123 22.2 10 24.6 8 22.3 54 20.2 78 26.9 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 82 27.1 68 28.1 14 22.9 88 26.9 44 22.4 40 32.4 20 45.7 14 21.9 27 22.2 40 27.8 69 26.9 14 15.3 7 19.3 93 32.1 56 26.4 145 26.0 16 40.7 9 27.1 68 25.4 84 29.2 NO OPINION 182 28.8 77 25.5 60 24.9 17 28.3 104 31.9 74 37.8 30 24.4 16 37.0 16 25.9 18 15.2 51 35.0 80 31.0 27 30.7 11 28.3 67 23.0 77 35.9 157 28.2 11 26.8 14 41.3 82 30.6 76 26.3 NEVER HEARD OF 131 20.8 61 20.2 46 19.2 14 23.9 70 21.3 39 20.0 28 22.2 6 12.8 16 25.5 36 29.7 26 17.8 48 18.6 23 26.5 9 24.9 60 20.6 38 18.0 125 22.4 3 7.8 3 9.3 63 23.3 46 16.0 UNSURE 7 1.0 5 1.7 5 2.0 0.3 1 0.5 1 1.2 4 3.2 3 1.1 3 3.3 1 1.8 3 1.4 7 1.2 1 0.5 5 1.6 NAME ID 492 78.2 236 78.1 190 78.8 46 75.9 256 78.2 157 80.0 95 76.6 38 87.2 47 74.5 80 67.1 119 82.2 208 80.4 62 70.2 28 73.3 230 79.4 173 80.6 424 76.4 37 92.2 31 90.7 205 76.2 238 82.3 HARD NAME ID 311 49.4 159 52.7 130 53.9 29 47.6 152 46.3 83 42.2 65 52.2 22 50.2 31 48.7 62 51.9 68 47.2 128 49.4 35 39.5 17 45.0 163 56.3 96 44.7 268 48.2 26 65.4 17 49.4 123 45.6 162 56.0
  46. 46. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 10-2 T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Jones? FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) -30 -4.7 -7 -2.3 -19 -18.8 -4 -32.4 1 0.2 10 6.3 -20 -16.5 -21 -23.6 -15 -9.1 -22 -23.0 -38 -28.1 141 100.0 -170 -100.0 -13 -9.1 -29 -27.6 11 8.4 -33 -8.7 8 17.1 -38 -47.1 FAVORABLE 141 22.3 71 25.2 48 20.7 20 19.2 1 11.3 60 23.4 48 28.8 16 13.2 17 19.4 45 27.4 30 32.5 76 30.9 37 27.4 141 100.0 37 25.6 33 31.9 47 36.5 85 22.5 23 52.3 20 24.3 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 78 27.6 48 20.8 39 38.0 5 43.7 59 23.2 37 22.5 36 29.7 38 43.0 60 36.5 52 55.5 76 30.9 74 55.6 170 100.0 50 34.7 62 59.5 36 28.1 118 31.2 16 35.1 58 71.4 NO OPINION 182 28.8 75 26.6 81 34.7 22 21.4 3 30.2 90 35.0 44 26.6 33 27.3 15 16.9 39 23.9 8 8.1 60 24.6 19 14.4 47 32.3 8 8.0 28 22.2 98 25.9 4 8.7 4 4.4 NEVER HEARD OF 131 20.8 54 19.1 53 22.9 22 21.1 2 14.7 42 16.4 35 21.3 36 29.7 18 20.5 19 11.8 4 3.8 33 13.4 3 2.6 10 7.0 1 0.5 16 12.6 76 20.0 2 3.9 UNSURE 7 1.0 4 1.5 2 0.8 0.3 5 2.0 1 0.8 0.2 1 0.3 1 0.2 1 0.4 1 0.6 1 0.4 NAME ID 492 78.2 225 79.3 177 76.2 81 78.6 9 85.3 209 81.6 129 77.9 85 70.3 70 79.3 144 87.8 90 96.2 212 86.4 131 97.4 141 100.0 170 100.0 134 92.7 104 99.5 111 86.8 300 79.6 43 96.1 81 100.0 HARD NAME ID 311 49.4 150 52.8 97 41.5 59 57.2 6 55.0 119 46.6 85 51.3 52 43.0 55 62.4 105 63.9 82 88.0 152 61.8 111 83.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 87 60.3 96 91.5 82 64.6 203 53.7 39 87.4 78 95.6
  47. 47. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 10-3 T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Jones? GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) -30 -4.7 -16 -22.5 -24 -13.5 52 69.4 2 13.1 -4 -29.0 -29 -28.7 -12 -35.6 0.1 -9 -5.7 -5 -1.7 -16 -7.9 12 10.7 16 12.6 -29 -31.4 -28 -9.4 25 30.4 -7 -13.0 -33 -37.1 -14 -3.5 FAVORABLE 141 22.3 12 16.4 31 17.9 53 70.7 5 30.5 3 22.6 15 14.7 3 9.1 19 13.0 45 27.2 69 25.6 27 13.8 43 38.5 49 38.9 14 14.7 35 11.8 42 51.3 13 24.5 15 16.9 71 17.5 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 28 38.8 55 31.4 1 1.2 3 17.3 6 51.6 43 43.4 15 44.7 19 12.9 54 32.8 73 27.3 43 21.8 31 27.8 33 26.3 43 46.1 64 21.2 17 20.9 20 37.4 48 54.0 85 20.9 NO OPINION 182 28.8 17 23.2 52 29.8 10 12.7 4 28.7 3 21.3 32 32.3 11 34.3 52 35.8 33 20.1 79 29.5 69 35.2 28 25.2 27 21.2 31 33.6 96 31.9 20 24.9 18 34.2 18 20.1 125 30.8 NEVER HEARD OF 131 20.8 16 21.6 34 19.4 12 15.3 3 23.4 1 4.5 10 9.6 4 11.9 52 35.6 30 18.3 46 17.3 54 27.6 9 8.0 17 13.5 5 5.5 100 33.3 2 2.9 2 4.0 8 9.1 118 29.2 UNSURE 7 1.0 3 1.5 4 2.7 3 1.6 1 0.3 3 1.6 1 0.5 0.2 6 2.0 7 1.6 NAME ID 492 78.2 57 78.4 139 79.1 64 84.7 11 76.6 12 95.5 90 90.4 29 88.1 90 61.7 132 80.1 221 82.4 139 70.8 102 91.5 108 86.5 87 94.4 195 64.8 79 97.1 51 96.0 82 90.9 281 69.2 HARD NAME ID 311 49.4 40 55.2 87 49.3 54 71.9 7 47.8 9 74.2 58 58.1 18 53.8 38 25.9 99 60.0 142 52.9 70 35.6 74 66.3 81 65.2 56 60.8 99 32.9 59 72.2 33 61.9 64 70.8 156 38.4
  48. 48. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 10-4 T7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Christine Jones? GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) -30 -4.7 -3 -1.1 -20 -8.2 -28 -4.9 -2 -2.8 FAVORABLE 141 22.3 60 26.3 55 22.9 130 23.0 11 17.3 UNFAVORABLE 170 27.0 62 27.4 75 31.1 157 27.9 13 20.1 NO OPINION 182 28.8 61 26.9 58 24.1 161 28.5 21 32.2 NEVER HEARD OF 131 20.8 39 17.3 53 21.9 113 20.0 1 100.0 17 26.2 UNSURE 7 1.0 5 2.2 4 0.7 3 4.3 NAME ID 492 78.2 184 80.6 188 78.1 448 79.3 44 69.5 HARD NAME ID 311 49.4 122 53.6 130 54.0 287 50.8 24 37.4
  49. 49. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 11-1 T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Smith? GENDER~MARITAL AGE REGION RACE REP VS. TEA ----------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- MEN TOT --------- MARR MEN -------- SING MEN --------- WOM TOT --------- MARR WOM -------- SING WOM --------- 18-34 --------- 35-44 -------- 45-54 --------- 55-64 --------- 65+ -------- NRTH --------- STH -------- NRTH CENT --------- STH CENT --------- WHTE -------- HISP LTNO --------- OTHR --------- REP PRTY -------- TEA PRTY --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 302 100.0 241 100.0 60 100.0 328 100.0 196 100.0 125 100.0 44 100.0 63 100.0 120 100.0 145 100.0 258 100.0 88 100.0 38 100.0 290 100.0 214 100.0 556 100.0 40 100.0 35 100.0 269 100.0 289 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 40 6.3 14 4.8 -2 -0.8 17 28.1 25 7.8 30 15.5 -5 -4.0 4 8.3 7 11.5 -5 -4.2 14 9.4 20 7.9 3 3.4 -3 -8.8 1 0.2 40 18.5 43 7.8 -7 -18.7 4 11.4 48 17.7 -7 -2.5 FAVORABLE 145 22.9 73 24.2 50 20.9 23 37.5 72 21.8 49 25.0 23 18.1 14 31.2 14 21.9 25 20.6 38 26.2 54 21.0 11 12.6 2 4.0 54 18.6 78 36.4 132 23.7 4 10.9 9 24.7 83 30.9 53 18.2 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 59 19.4 52 21.7 6 9.4 46 14.1 19 9.5 28 22.1 10 22.9 7 10.4 30 24.8 24 16.8 34 13.2 8 9.2 5 12.8 53 18.4 38 17.9 88 15.9 12 29.6 5 13.2 36 13.2 60 20.7 NO OPINION 200 31.7 103 34.1 88 36.7 15 24.4 97 29.5 65 33.1 31 25.1 14 31.1 24 37.7 24 20.4 44 30.3 94 36.5 33 37.3 13 33.6 99 34.1 55 25.9 170 30.7 19 46.8 11 31.8 68 25.4 107 37.0 NEVER HEARD OF 161 25.5 60 19.7 42 17.4 17 28.7 101 30.8 60 30.8 34 27.5 7 14.8 17 26.6 31 26.0 38 26.4 68 26.3 29 32.3 17 44.2 77 26.5 39 18.0 145 26.1 5 12.7 10 30.3 72 26.8 62 21.4 UNSURE 20 3.2 8 2.6 8 3.3 12 3.7 3 1.7 9 7.3 2 3.4 10 8.1 0.3 8 3.0 7 8.5 2 5.4 7 2.4 4 1.8 20 3.6 10 3.6 8 2.8 NAME ID 449 71.3 235 77.7 191 79.3 43 71.3 214 65.4 133 67.6 81 65.3 38 85.2 44 70.0 79 65.9 106 73.3 183 70.7 52 59.2 19 50.4 206 71.1 172 80.2 390 70.3 35 87.3 24 69.7 187 69.6 219 75.8 HARD NAME ID 249 39.6 132 43.5 103 42.6 28 46.9 118 35.9 68 34.4 50 40.2 24 54.1 20 32.3 54 45.5 62 43.0 88 34.2 19 21.9 6 16.8 107 37.0 116 54.3 220 39.6 16 40.5 13 37.9 119 44.2 112 38.8
  50. 50. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 11-2 T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Smith? FISCAL IDEOLOGY SOCIAL IDEOLOGY BENNETT IMG DUCEY IMG JONES IMG SMITH IMG HORNE IMG BRNOVICH IMG ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------- ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- -------------------- TOTAL --------- VERY CONS --------- CONS ERVE -------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL --------- VERY CONS -------- CONS ERVE --------- MODE RATE --------- LIB ERAL -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- FAV --------- UN FAV -------- FAV --------- UN FAV --------- FAV -------- UN FAV --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 284 100.0 233 100.0 103 100.0 11 100.0 256 100.0 166 100.0 120 100.0 88 100.0 164 100.0 94 100.0 245 100.0 134 100.0 141 100.0 170 100.0 145 100.0 105 100.0 127 100.0 377 100.0 44 100.0 81 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 40 6.3 -9 -3.3 29 12.6 21 20.1 -1 -7.2 6 2.2 6 3.9 4 3.5 24 26.9 6 3.9 -6 -5.9 2 0.6 15 11.4 4 2.6 -12 -7.1 145 100.0 -105 -100.0 13 10.2 22 5.9 3 7.5 1 0.7 FAVORABLE 145 22.9 41 14.5 61 26.1 39 38.1 4 32.9 47 18.3 40 24.3 25 20.8 32 36.8 57 34.6 34 36.0 55 22.2 58 43.5 37 26.3 50 29.5 145 100.0 29 22.4 105 28.0 21 47.2 39 48.1 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 50 17.8 31 13.5 18 18.0 4 40.1 41 16.1 34 20.4 21 17.4 9 9.9 50 30.7 39 41.9 53 21.6 43 32.1 33 23.7 62 36.6 105 100.0 16 12.2 83 22.0 18 39.8 39 47.4 NO OPINION 200 31.7 103 36.4 78 33.5 16 15.9 2 21.1 90 35.3 48 29.1 39 32.8 22 25.0 34 21.0 14 14.6 68 27.7 27 20.4 45 32.3 38 22.4 46 36.0 103 27.4 4 7.9 4 4.5 NEVER HEARD OF 161 25.5 77 27.2 59 25.2 24 23.5 1 5.8 66 25.6 40 24.2 31 25.4 24 27.7 18 11.2 7 7.5 65 26.3 5 3.9 24 17.3 15 8.9 33 26.1 77 20.3 2 3.9 UNSURE 20 3.2 12 4.1 4 1.8 5 4.4 12 4.6 3 2.1 4 3.7 1 0.6 4 2.4 5 2.2 0.3 4 2.6 4 3.4 9 2.3 1 1.2 NAME ID 449 71.3 195 68.7 170 73.1 74 72.0 10 94.2 179 69.8 122 73.7 85 71.0 63 71.7 141 86.4 87 92.5 175 71.5 129 96.1 116 82.4 151 88.5 145 100.0 105 100.0 90 70.5 292 77.4 42 94.9 81 100.0 HARD NAME ID 249 39.6 92 32.3 92 39.6 58 56.1 8 73.0 88 34.5 74 44.6 46 38.2 41 46.7 107 65.3 73 77.9 108 43.8 101 75.6 70 50.1 113 66.1 145 100.0 105 100.0 44 34.5 189 50.0 39 87.0 78 95.5
  51. 51. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 11-3 T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Smith? GOP GOVERNOR BALLOT AG BALLOT SOS BALLOT TREASURER BALLOT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- BENN ETT --------- DUC EY -------- JON ES --------- MEL VIN --------- RIG GS -------- SMI TH --------- THO MAS --------- UNDE CIDE -------- HOR NE --------- BRNO VICH --------- UNDE CIDE -------- CARD ON --------- REAG AN -------- PIE RCE --------- UNDE CIDE --------- DE WIT -------- PULL EN --------- HALL MAN --------- UNDE CIDE -------- TOTAL 630 100.0 73 100.0 176 100.0 76 100.0 15 100.0 12 100.0 100 100.0 33 100.0 146 100.0 165 100.0 268 100.0 196 100.0 112 100.0 125 100.0 92 100.0 301 100.0 81 100.0 53 100.0 90 100.0 406 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 40 6.3 -15 -20.5 -17 -9.5 -3 -3.4 3.1 -9 -69.7 90 90.8 -10 -29.9 2 1.2 18 10.9 2 0.9 20 9.9 6 5.6 11 8.5 -3 -3.3 26 8.7 -17 -20.8 4 7.8 10 11.1 43 10.5 FAVORABLE 145 22.9 10 13.3 17 9.6 8 11.0 2 13.9 1 4.4 91 91.3 3 9.1 13 9.0 40 24.0 69 25.5 36 18.5 34 30.6 42 33.7 18 20.0 50 16.5 12 15.2 18 33.5 34 38.1 80 19.8 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 25 33.8 33 19.1 11 14.4 2 10.8 9 74.2 1 0.6 13 39.0 11 7.8 22 13.1 66 24.7 17 8.5 28 25.0 31 25.2 21 23.2 24 7.9 29 36.0 14 25.7 24 27.1 38 9.2 NO OPINION 200 31.7 26 34.9 58 33.2 31 41.2 7 44.5 1 4.5 7 6.7 15 45.3 56 38.6 52 31.5 77 28.8 71 36.0 27 24.1 32 26.0 43 46.4 98 32.5 30 36.8 18 34.4 21 22.9 131 32.4 NEVER HEARD OF 161 25.5 13 18.0 59 33.5 25 33.4 5 30.9 1 4.5 1 1.5 2 6.6 54 37.4 46 27.7 48 18.0 67 33.9 20 17.5 19 15.1 9 10.0 113 37.5 10 12.1 3 6.5 9 10.2 138 34.1 UNSURE 20 3.2 8 4.6 2 12.4 11 7.2 6 3.7 8 3.0 6 3.1 3 2.7 0.4 17 5.6 2 1.8 19 4.6 NAME ID 449 71.3 60 82.0 109 61.8 50 66.6 10 69.1 10 83.1 98 98.5 31 93.4 81 55.4 113 68.6 212 79.0 124 63.0 89 79.7 106 84.9 83 89.6 171 56.9 72 87.9 50 93.5 79 88.0 249 61.4 HARD NAME ID 249 39.6 35 47.1 50 28.7 19 25.4 4 24.6 10 78.6 92 91.9 16 48.1 24 16.8 61 37.2 135 50.2 53 27.0 62 55.6 74 58.9 40 43.2 73 24.4 42 51.2 31 59.2 59 65.2 118 29.0
  52. 52. Arizona Republican Primary Survey, June 3rd - 4th, 2014, 630N, 3.90% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300, Louisville, CO 80027, 303-861-8585 Table 11-4 T8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Smith? GOV CAND DMA -------------------- ------------------------------------------ TOTAL --------- PRO FAM --------- BUS ESTB -------- PHOE NIX --------- YUMA --------- TUC SON -------- ALBQ STFE --------- TOTAL 630 100.0 228 100.0 240 100.0 565 100.0 1 100.0 64 100.0 (FAV - UNFAV) 40 6.3 22 9.4 1 0.3 43 7.7 -3 -5.4 FAVORABLE 145 22.9 56 24.7 53 22.1 141 25.0 3 5.1 UNFAVORABLE 105 16.6 35 15.2 52 21.8 98 17.3 7 10.5 NO OPINION 200 31.7 71 31.1 66 27.3 175 30.9 1 100.0 24 37.4 NEVER HEARD OF 161 25.5 56 24.7 62 25.8 137 24.2 24 37.1 UNSURE 20 3.2 10 4.3 7 3.1 14 2.5 6 9.8 NAME ID 449 71.3 162 71.0 171 71.2 414 73.3 1 100.0 34 53.1 HARD NAME ID 249 39.6 91 39.9 105 43.9 239 42.4 10 15.6

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