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Food and Nutrition Security in Africa, Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal, Siwa Msangi
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Food and Nutrition Security in Africa seminar in Helsinki 16 June 2014, Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal, Siwa Msangi, IFPRI

Food and Nutrition Security in Africa seminar in Helsinki 16 June 2014, Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal, Siwa Msangi, IFPRI

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Food and Nutrition Security in Africa, Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal, Siwa Msangi Food and Nutrition Security in Africa, Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal, Siwa Msangi Presentation Transcript

  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa Siwa Msangi, IFPRI Jarkko Niemi, MTT Amy Faye, ISRA Climate change impacts & adaptation in Senegal
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Overview of Work Package 3 • Focused on examining the climate change impacts on the agricultural economy of Senegal, and options for adaptation • Covers several key aspects: • Impacts on crop productivity and farm incomes in key regions such as the peanut basin (among others) • Goes beyond crops to also consider the impacts on livestock – especially in the extensive systems of the drylands (Ferlo) – often overlooked in many climate change studies • Will look at the macro-level implications of climate change – with economy-wide linkages between agriculture and other key sectors • Working closely with local partners (ISRA) and linking with other relevant institutions/initiatives (CIRAD-PPZS, AgMIP) FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 2
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Looking at crop production impacts • Building on work done by IFPRI & others to measure yield impacts for key crop sectors • Building on methodologies used before for measuring crop technology adoption in Senegal – the ’Trade-off Analysis’ (TOA) model – adapting it to new data for Senegal • Also adopting newer techniques of modeling farm-level behavior that can better illustrate the decisions and trade-offs that face farmers at the micro-level • Amy Faye (PhD student working at ISRA) will bring out some of these results in her poster presentation FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 3
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Production from ’medium’ farms in peanut basin under stochastic shocks FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 4
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Analysing climate data for Senegal as basis for scenario work FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 5
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Looking at the livestock sector • Due to the increased vulnerability of dryland areas to climate shocks, we have invested considerable effort in understanding how pastoralists adapt to climate-driven fluctations in feed availability • Capturing decisions around transhumance (moving animals across space) has required the use of specialized modeling techniques that can take the dynamics into account • This allows us to model how decisions on stocking rates and animal movements might be affected by climate shocks • We can also compare the effectiveness of transhumance (moving animals across space) to moving feed across space with the introduction of feed markets FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 6
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Transhumance in the 1950’s and in 2000’s 23.6.2014© MTT Agrifood Research Finland 7 Cesaro et al. 1950’s 2000’s
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Low rainfall will increase the sales and reduce stocking rate in the next year 6/23/ © MTT Agrifood Research Finland 8 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.2 Changeinstocksize(%) Stocking rate (TLU/ha before transhumance) Normalyear Drought • Transhumant population is more resilient to adverse weather than non-transhumant population More livestock than local biomass production entails • Regions are not isolated -transhumance affects livestock also in the rainy region
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland 6/23/ © MTT Agrifood Research Finland 9 Factors which increase transhumance High stocking rate in the dry region Little stock in the rainy region Drought in the dry region Low costs of travel High meat price Low discount rate No feed markets
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland A macro-level perspective • We consider market-level outcomes, in order to capture the implications for the agricultural sector – and what it entails for the wider economy • We start with a partial-equilibrium framework, which focuses on the specific crop sectors of interest, and enables us to aggregate up more directly from the farm-level outcomes • We are also preparing an economy-wide analysis, that will make use of an updated social accounting matrix (SAM) for Senegal – to give us the implications of climate change for agriculture & the rest of the economy • This will enable us to examine the implications for growth and tradeoffs in investments at the macro-level FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 10
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Summary • Impacts on groundnuts and grains could be significant – although uncertainty exists about the severity of impacts (some could be positive) • In some regions, salinity control will be needed if irrigation is to be considered an important means of adaptation • Transhumance will become an even more important mechanism of adaptation for extensive systems in the Ferlo – feed markets could become highly beneficial as well • Need to do further work to bring out the implications for livestock in mixed crop systems – currently developing the modeling tools to address this FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 11
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland Continuing work • Continue to develop farm-level production models to cover the range of farm types observed in the Peanut Basin and Natural Casamance – better integrate them with livestock, where data allows & mixed crop-livestock systems occur • Continue to develop model of transhumance and herd management for extensive systems in the Ferlo – integrate it more closely with market modeling (to capture feedback in the market for live animals & simulate feed mkt interventions) • Develop additional scenarios with local partners and hold consultative workshops with stakeholders in Senegal to discuss results & get additional feedback • Further work on economywide modeling & policy analysis FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 12
  • 16 June 2014, Helsinki, Finland THANK YOU! FoodAfrica Midterm Seminar Food and Nutrition Security in Africa 13