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MRC: Russian PVC market, Amsterdam, The 5th Global PVC Conference - 2005

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MRC: Russian PVC market, Amsterdam, The 5th Global PVC Conference - 2005

MRC: Russian PVC market, Amsterdam, The 5th Global PVC Conference - 2005

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  • 1. Russian PVC market Sergey Yaremenko, Market Report Company THE 5th GLOBAL PVC CONFERENCE Amsterdam, 16-17 November, 2005
  • 2. Agenda
    • Russian PVC market – development nature
    • Analysis of key PVC producers in CIS
    • Resume
  • 3. Russia: General figures Here and further: 2005-2008 YY – forecast data Source: Market Report AAGR: 6% AAGR: 7% AAGR: 10% AAGR: 12%
  • 4. Russia: Consumption of PVC Source: Market Report 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 KT 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8 00 1998 1999 99-04 AAGR: 24% 05-08 AAGR: 12%
  • 5. * by import Russia: Consumption of PVC, KT Source: Market Report 12% 10% 10% 20% 27% 53% 2% 8% - Growth, % 786 ,5 70 1,4 639 ,3 583 ,4 486 ,1 384 ,2 251 ,6 246 ,5 227 ,7 Total 7 ,4 6 , 5 5 ,7 4 ,8 4 ,1 2 ,6 2 ,9 1 ,1 0,4 Pastes * 2 ,4 2 ,7 3 ,1 4 ,3 3 ,6 2 ,9 3 ,7 4 , 9 5 , 6 Others 21 ,1 18 ,4 15 ,7 13 ,4 11 ,2 7 ,4 4 ,1 1 ,7 1 ,3 Soft compounds * 53 ,1 46 ,6 40 ,1 32 ,3 26 ,9 23 ,7 14 ,4 4 ,7 2 ,1 Rigid compounds * 85 ,6 80 ,5 75 ,4 77 ,9 64 , 9 53 ,4 45 ,7 49 , 3 53 ,1 Emulsion 617 ,1 546 ,7 499 ,4 450 ,2 375 ,4 293 ,7 180 ,9 184 ,8 165 ,1 Suspension 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Type
  • 6. Russia: Production of PVC Source: Market Report Export Domestic market 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 KT 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 255 179 296 179 202 292 113 433 92 476 45 531 260 165 122 370 46 609
  • 7. Russia: Export of PVC, KT 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Others Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East CIS Asia China Source: Harriman Chemsult
  • 8. Russian export of PVC, MT Source: Market Report 51 457 121 963 202 639 301 652 249 520 259 701 Total - -40% -33% 21% -4% - Growth , % 275 340 1 724 1 953 180 179 Poland 488 333 1 577 1 686 962 -  Finland 1 393 2 862 1 786 935 593 369 Kazakhstan 1 819 2 745 3 455 2 610 2 675 2 337 Uzbekistan - 11 342 6 874 2 475 165   - Azerbaijan 4 703 - 180 2 622 3 629 22 448 Egypt 12 166 30 199 21 683 10 861 2 831 820 Ukraine 4 314 21 914 32 935 10 049 8 996 4 574 Turkey 25 964 51 319 131 092 264 588 225 174 216 795 China 2005 (5) 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Country
  • 9. Balance of PVC-S market, KT Source: Market Report 1% 3% 5% 4% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% Import in consumption 7% 8% 16% 21% 25% 41% 62% 59% 61% Export in production 83% 99% 9 8 % 106 % 97% 98% 94% 86% 84% Capacities utilization 13% 9% 11% 20% 28% 62% -2% 12%   - Growth , % 617 ,1 546 ,7 499 ,4 450 ,2 375 ,4 293 ,7 180 ,9 184 ,8 165 ,1 Consumption 8 ,3 15 ,9 23 ,4 17 ,1 5 ,1 1 ,7 2 ,5 5 ,5 - Import 46 ,3 45 ,3 91 ,7 112 ,8 121 ,6 202 ,2 295 ,9 255 ,1 259 ,7 Export 654 ,9 576 ,1 567 ,5 545 ,9 491 ,9 494 ,2 474 ,4 434 ,4 424 , 7 Production 784 ,8 584 ,8 584 ,8 504 ,8 504 ,8 504 ,8 504 ,8 504 ,8 0 504 ,8 Capacities 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Index
  • 10. 165 KT 450 KT Consumption of PVC-S by markets Source: Market Report
  • 11. Consumption of PVC-S by K values 165 KT 450 KT Source: Market Report
  • 12. 165 KT 450 KT Market shares of PVC-S producers Source: Market Report
  • 13. 165 KT 450 KT Market shares of PVC-S brands Source: Market Report
  • 14. 53 KT 78 KT Market shares of PVC-E producers Source: Market Report
  • 15. Domestic processing of PVC will grow ! Source: Market Report Import of PVC finished goods into Russia
  • 16. Domestic processing of PVC will grow ! Source: Market Report Investments into processing of PVC
  • 17. Investments into processing of PVC Source: Market Report November 2005 14 KT /EUR 30 mln. 15 KT /EUR 10 mln. 14 KT /EUR 13 mln. 12 KT/ EUR 11 mln. 10 KT /EUR 10 mln. Total: 65 KT/ EUR 74 mln.
  • 18. Caustic and ethylene – key limitations for Russian PVC producers Production chain of PVC Chlorine Caustic Ethylene EDC VCM PVC Oxychloride Hydrochloric acid Oxygen 1 MT 1,0 2 MT 0,5 8 MT 0,4 5 MT 0,6 8 MT
  • 19. * - 5 months PVC production growth , % Source: Market Report Caustic production in Russia, KT 2005* 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Producer 506 1 153 1 061 1 145 1 190 1 238 Total 1% 9% -7% -4% -4% - Growth , % 79 183 154 211 235 236 Others - 2,9 2,2 2,3 5,2 5,8 Sintez, Moscow 17,6 37,1 34,7 36,2 37 39,8 Khimprom, Kemerovo 32,8 81,4 76,2 69,2 68,3 67,1 Khimprom , Chuvashiya 35,2 81,3 76,1 75,4 71,6 73,8 Azot 3 2 6 8 46 60 70 81 Kirovo - Chepezkiy khimkombinat 37 89 8 6 85 83 96 Sibur-Neftechim 29 6 5 6 2 9 3 100 105 Usolekhimprom 5 4 11 9 115 114 11 3 101 Sayanskkhimprom 8 6 203 195 17 7 1 80 19 4 Kaustik , Volgograd 103 22 4 213 222 22 7 23 8 Kaustik, Sterlitamak 20% 28% 62% -2% 12%
  • 20. * - assessment Ethylene production in Russia, KT Source: Market Report 3 035 250 45 180 210 300 250 300 300 350 400 450 Capacity 2005 450 234 227 208 - - Lukor >4 500 2 401 2 324 2 227 1 955 1 903 Total 150 33 30 29 29 30 Sibur - Chimprom 180 68 65 65 70 56 Neftechimiya 250 136 124 118 129 140 Ufaorgsintez 300 187 172 159 138 103 Tomsky NHZ 360 206 169 153 160 157 Sibur - Neftechim 330 206 196* 194* 185 179 Angarsky NH К 600 247 235 230 215 249 Salavatnefteorgsintez 600 300 291 290 257 264 Stavrolen 600 332 370 333 337 317 Kazanorgsintez 1050 452 445 448 435 413 Nizhnekamskneftekhim Capacity 2010 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Producer
  • 21. PVC production balance, 2004, KT Source: Market Report * without Lukor supplied stable 104 104 150 370 - Lukor own variable 9 - 15 27 27 Khimprom Volgograd Salt Ethylene deliveries Ethylene needs Chlorine production Chlorine needs VCM capacity PVC capacity Producers 674 56 70 77 175 193 103 own variable 103 150 270 250 Sayanskkhimplast - - 242 349 629 615 Total* own variable 8 14 26 24 Usolekhimprom supplied acetylene - 25 45 54 Azot supplied stable 15 20 36 42 Sibur-Neftechim own variable 35 36 64 6 8 Nikos own variable 72 89 160 1 5 0 Kaustik Sterlitamack
  • 22. +160 Source: Market Report D eclared production growth up to 2008 : 855 KT Market will demand : 280 KT CIS: Capacities growth up to 2008 Investments into PVC, VCM, Ethylene? Key limitations of producers: HDPE, MEG or PVC? Investments into PVC? Investments into PVC, VCM? Investments into PVC, VCM, Ethylene? ? ? Moscow Budennovsk Ufa Salavat Omsk Tomsk Berezniki Kstovo Kazan Nizhnekamsk Dzerzhinsk Volgograd Novomoscowsk Chapaevsk Sterlitamack Angarsk Bratsk Usole Sayansk Aliaga Shurtan Sumgait Navoi Vozlavsk Kalush +285 +160 +150 +180 +80
  • 23. Resume
    • Market will increase by 12% AAGR to 2008
    • Producers focused on domestic market because of loosing of China
    • ETK as well as high custom duties support the current market situation
    • 2008 – time of dramatic changes in the market (WTO, election, capacities increasing)
  • 24. Thank you ! Sergey Yaremenko, Managing Director of Market Report Company syaremenko@market-cis.com; www.market-cis.com Moscow +7 095 543 91 94 ; Kiev +38 044 240 82 35 ; Kharkov +38 057 228 20 11

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