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MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008
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MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008

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MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008

MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008

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MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008 MRC: Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe, Kiev, 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls - 2008 Presentation Transcript

  • Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls 3-4 June 2008, Kiev, Radisson SAS Hotel Sergey Yaremenko, MRC (Market Report Company)
  • Market Report Company We cooperate with 50 biggest worldwide chemical and petrochemical companies from TOP-100 2
  • Caustic & Chlorine Outlook in Russia /Eastern Europe 4 th Russia / CEE ChlorVinyls 3-4 June 2008, Kiev, Radisson SAS Hotel Sergey Yaremenko, MRC (Market Report Company)
  • Agenda General figures for CEE & CIS (macroeconomics, PVC, caustic soda) World Caustic Soda Market Caustic Soda Market in CEE & Russia Biggest Russian consumers of Caustic Soda Current Russian Caustic Soda Production Outlook of Russian production till 2012 4
  • Agenda General figures for CEE & CIS (macroeconomics, PVC, caustic soda) 5
  • Population, 000 people Country 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 e 2 008 f 2 009 f 2 010 f Belarus' 9 990 9 951 9 899 9 849 9 800 9 750 9 750 9 681 9 638 9 594 9 550 Bulgaria 8 170 7 913 7 868 7 823 7 787 7 764 7 741 7 629 7 569 7 510 7 450 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 781 3 798 3 828 3 832 3 836 3 858 3 873 3 887 3 901 3 916 3 930 Hungary 10 211 10 188 10 159 10 130 10 107 10 085 10 063 10 034 10 009 9 984 9 959 Latvia 2 373 2 355 2 339 2 325 2 313 2 308 2 304 2 284 2 273 2 261 2 249 Lithuania 3 500 3 481 3 469 3 454 3 436 3 419 3 412 3 393 3 378 3 363 3 348 Macedonia 2 026 2 035 2 038 2 049 2 062 2 068 2 076 2 085 2 094 2 102 2 111 Poland 38 256 38 251 38 232 38 195 38 180 38 142 38 104 38 091 38 065 38 039 38 013 Russia 147 000 146 300 145 600 145 000 144 200 143 500 142 827 142 124 141 425 140 726 140 027 Romania 22 435 22 408 21 795 21 734 21 686 21 643 21 553 21 281 21 128 20 975 20 822 Serbia and Montenegro 10 637 10 651 8 130 8 136 8 152 8 161 8 172 8 183 8 194 8 205 8 220 Slovakia 5 401 5 403 5 391 5 380 5 382 5 385 5 388 5 378 5 375 5 372 5 369 Slovenia 1 989 1 992 1 994 1 995 1 995 1 998 1 999 2 001 2 002 2 004 2 005 Turkey 66 400 65 667 68 700 70 700 71 152 72 065 72 929 74 635 75 880 77 124 78 368 Ukraine 48 923 48 457 48 003 47 622 47 280 46 929 46 481 46 184 45 688 45 391 44 194 Croatia 4 380 4 440 4 440 4 445 4 508 4 521 4 547 4 573 4 599 4 625 4 651 Czech Republic 10 273 10 224 10 201 10 202 10 207 10 222 10 232 10 206 10 201 10 197 10 193 Estonia 1 372 1 367 1 361 1 356 1 356 1 352 1 348 1 344 1 340 1 336 1 332 Total in EE 183 717 182 914 179 147 178 527 178 087 177 605 177 043 176 234 175 454 174 873 174 397 Increase, % -0,44% -2,06% -0,35% -0,25% -0,27% -0,32% -0,46% -0,44% -0,33% -0,27% Source: World Bank, MRC 6
  • Eastern Europe: GDP (PPP) in 2007, bln. USD GDP per capita (PPP), '000 USD 30 Slovenia 51 Czech Rep 253 25 Hungary 208 20 Russia Slovakia Poland 1 908 104 604 15 Bulgaria Romania 81 230 10 Belarus' Kazahstan Ukraine Turkey 92 154 374 723 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 Population, mln. Source: IMF, World Bank 7
  • Forecast: consumption of PVC in 2010, KT PVC per capita, kg 15 Western Europe Poland 472 Hungary 119 12 Turkey 894 43 Lithuania Russia 9 Slovakia Ex-Yugoslavia 26 996 100 World 6 Czech Rep China 60 Estonia Ukraine 5 Azerbaijan 156 3 Romania 24 89 Belarus' 12 Kazahstan 21 0 0% 5% 10% 15% Market increase 06-10,% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC 8
  • Agenda The World Caustic Soda Market 9
  • The world market Source: Harriman Chemsult World Caustic Soda market, m m n t 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Others NA EE & CIS WE Asia CMAI: Asia will continue to add a lot of chlor-alkali capacities. There are no major capacity additions scheduled in the European and American regions until 2008. The continued acceleration of chlor-alkali capacity expansion in China to support the vinyls industry is expected to result in a caustic surplus in this region. 10
  • Major Caustic Soda flows, 1996,2000,2006 (000 mt) Source: Harriman Chemsult 11
  • The biggest world importers & exporters Source: Harriman Chemsult 12
  • Agenda Caustic Soda Market in CEE & Russia 13
  • Forecast: Caustic Soda consumption in 2010, KT Caustic Soda per capita, kg 15 74 Slovakia 12 Czech Rep 127 Poland Romania 305 9 172 World Turkey Belarus' Russia 6 293 56 1168 Bulgaria Serbia 41 32 Estonia Ukraine 5 3 193 Lithuania 8 0 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Market increase, 06-10,% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC 14
  • Poland Consumption of Chlorine, 2007, % Consumption of Caustic Soda, 2007, % Others 4% Others Inorganic 31% chemicals Inorganic 24% chemicals 32% Vinyls Organic Other organic 46% chemicals chemicals Textiles/Rayon 6% 10% 7% Soaps and Chlorinated Pulp and paper detergents Isocyanates Propylene oxide aromatics 17% 7% 6% 6% 4% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC The major caustic consumers are sodium silicate and STPP producers (one of the biggest are ZC Alwernia and Wizow). 15
  • Hungary Consumption of Chlorine, 2007, % Consumption of Caustic Soda, 2007, % Others Others 3% Inorganic 12% chemicals Organic chemicals Phosgene 3% Textiles/Rayon 17% derivatives 4% 4% Vinyls Pulp and paper Other organic Inorganic 47% 2% chemicals chemicals 2% 14% Soaps and detergents Alumina Isocyanates 7% 44% 41% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC One of the biggest consumers: Alumina ( Ajka Aluminipari 305,000mt; MOTIM - 75,000mt), Pulp & Paper (Dunapack) 16
  • Romania Consumption of Chlorine, 2007, % Consumption of Caustic Soda, 2007, % Others Others 11% 13% Organic Textiles/Rayon chemicals Inorganic 2% 23% chemicals 14% Vinyls Pulp and paper 41% 7% Propylene oxide Alumina 7% 14% Inorganic Chlorinated Soaps & chemicals aromatics ED for export C detergents 3% Other C2 C1 32% 3% 9% Chloroethanes Chloromethanes 15% 3% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC One of the biggest consumers is alumina producer BBG Alum, Tulcea (600,000mt/year) 17
  • Russia Consumption of Chlorine, 2007, % Consumption of Caustic Soda, 2007, % Others 16% Iron 1% Others 4% Refinery Other organic 6% chemicals 8% VCM/EDC Textiles 35% 5% Isocyanates 1% Chemicals Energetics Chlorinated 35% 9% aromatics 1% Non-ferrous Hydrochloric Non -ferrous acid 5% 12% 3% Epichlorhydrin Pulp & Paper Methylene 7% 7% Chloroform Pulp & Papers 4% chloride 28% 5% Source: MRC We have completed TOP-100 of Russian Caustic Soda Consumers 18
  • Agenda Biggest Russian consumers of Caustic Soda 19
  • Top-10 Russian consumers: whole marke # Company Sector Location Main Supplier Product Volume, MT Market share, % 1 Ust-Ulimskiy pulp&paper plant pulp and paper Irkutsk oblast' Ilimchemprom LCS 102 333 9,20% 2 Siberian-Ural aluminium company non-ferrous Sverdlovsk oblast' Sayanskchemplast LCS 72 594 6,60% 3 Arkhangelsk pulp&paper plant pulp and paper Arhangelsk oblast' Usolyechemprom LCS 56 257 5,10% 4 Mondi Business Syktyvkarskiy LPK pulp and paper Komy Usolyechemprom LCS 55 928 5,00% 5 Volzhskiy Orgsintez chemicals Volgograd oblast' Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 53 566 4,80% 6 Kuybyshevazot chemicals Samara oblast' Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 44 858 4,00% 7 Azot, Kemerovo chemicals Kemerovo oblast' Chemprom, Kemerovo LCS 44 510 4,00% 8 Fosforit chemicals Leningrad oblast' Azot, Novomoskovsk LCS 43 791 4,00% 9 Balkovskiy plant of fibre materials textiles Saratov oblast' Chemprom, Volgograd LCS 29 879 2,70% 10 Bogoslovskiy aluminium plant non-ferrous Sverdlovsk oblast' Sayanskchemplast LCS 25 286 2,30% Total 529 002 47,70% Source: MRC 20
  • Top-10 Russian consumers in Pulp & Paper # Company Location Main Supplier Product Volume, MT Market share, % 1 Ust-Ulimskiy pulp&paper plant Irkutsk oblast' Ilimchemprom LCS 102 333 9,20% 2 Arkhangelsk pulp&paper plant Arhangelsk oblast' Usolyechemprom LCS 56 257 5,10% 3 Mondi Business Syktyvkarskiy LPK Komy Usolyechemprom LCS 55 928 5,00% 4 Kotlasskiy pulp&paper plant Arhangelsk oblast' Sibur-Neftechem LCS 21 023 1,90% 5 Nemansk pulp&paper plant Kaliningrad oblast' Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 19 030 1,70% 6 Baykalskiy pulp&paper plant Irkutsk oblast' Usolyechemprom LCS 18 681 1,70% 7 Segezhskiy pulp&paper plant Karelia Sibur-Neftechem LCS 12 292 1,10% 8 Cepruss Kaliningrad oblast' Sibur-Neftechem LCS 6 783 0,60% 9 Turinskaya paper plant Sverdlovsk oblast' Chemprom, Novocheboksarsk LCS 6 435 0,60% 10 Kama paper plant Perm' oblast' Soda-Chlorat LCS 6 200 0,60% Total 304 962 27,50% Source: MRC 21
  • Top-10 Russian consumers in Chemicals # Company Location Main Supplier Product Volume, MT Market share, % 1 Kuybyshevazot Samara oblast' Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 44 858 4,00% 2 Azot, Kemerovo Kemerovo oblast' Chemprom, Kemerovo LCS 44 510 4,00% 3 Fosforit Leningrad oblast' Azot, Novomoskovsk LCS 43 791 4,00% 4 Nizhnekamskneftechem Tatarstan Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 24 444 2,20% 5 Procter end Gamble, Novomoskovsk Tula oblast' Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 20 057 1,80% 6 Tolyattiazot Samara oblast' Chemprom, Novocheboksarsk LCS 19 275 1,70% 7 Metafraks Perm' oblast' Kirovo-Chepetskiy chemical plant LCS 18 142 1,60% 8 Kazan factory of synthetic rubber Tatarstan Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 15 359 1,40% 9 Schekinoazot Tula oblast' Chemprom, Volgograd LCS 14 086 1,30% 10 Salavatnefteorgsintez Baskortostan Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 11 342 1,00% Total 255 864 23,10% Source: MRC 22
  • Top-10 Russian consumers in Non-ferrous # Company Location Main Supplier Product Volume, MT Market share, % 1 Siberian-Ural aluminium company Sverdlovsk oblast' Sayanskchemplast LCS 72 594 6,60% 2 Bogoslovskiy aluminium plant Sverdlovsk oblast' Sayanskchemplast LCS 25 286 2,30% 3 Sredneuralskiy copper factory Sverdlovsk oblast' Sayanskchemplast LCS 22 528 2,00% 4 Ufaleynikel' Chelyabinsk' oblast' Caustic, Sterlitamak LCS 8 116 0,70% 5 Rusal Bratsk Irkutsk oblast' Sayanskchemplast LCS 6 093 0,60% 6 Apatit Murmansk oblast' Kirovo-Chepetskiy chemical plant LCS 5 110 0,50% 7 Gidrometallurg Kabardino-Balkaria Chemprom, Volgograd LCS 2 558 0,20% Total 142 285 12,90% Source: MRC 23
  • Agenda Current Russian Caustic Soda Production 24
  • Russian caustic market, 00-10 Consumption, 000 DMT Production, 000 DMT 2100 2100 1400 1400 700 700 0 0 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f Export, 000 DMT Import, 000 DMT 400 60 300 40 200 20 100 0 0 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f Source: MRC 25
  • Production of Caustic Soda in Russia, 000 dm Producer 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Caustic, Sterlitamak 238 227 222 213 224 239 249 250 Caustic, Volgograd 194 180 177 195 203 210 216 232 Sayanskchemplast 101 113 114 115 119 129 111 162 Usolyechemprom 105 100 93 62 65 84 96 98 Sibur-Neftechem, Dzerzhynsk 96 83 85 86 89 86 92 87 Kirovo-Chepetsky Plant 81 70 60 46 68 80 79 81 Azot, Novomoskovsk 74 72 75 76 81 73 61 42 Chemprom, Novocheboksarsk 67 68 69 76 81 99 92 95 Chemprom, Kemerovo 40 37 36 35 37 42 44 43 Total 1 238 1 190 1 145 1 061 1 153 1 229 1 266 129 Increase, % - -3,9% -3,8% -7,3% 8,7% 6,6% 3,0% 2,3% Source: MRC 26
  • Russian caustic market in 2007 Consumption, 000 DMT Production, 000 DMT 100 120 75 90 50 60 25 30 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Export, 000 DMT Import, 000 DMT 28 4 21 3 14 2 7 1 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: MRC 27
  • Russian caustic market in 2007 Export to Production,% Import to Consumption,% 30% 5% 24% 4% 18% 3% 12% 2% 6% 1% 0% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 08 Production in 2007, % Kirovo-Chepetsk Export in 2007, % Sibur-Neftechem 6% others Georgia 2% others 5% 7% 16% Chemprom, Volgograd Finland 2% 7% Azerbaijan Chemprom, 9% Ukraine Novocheboksarsk 7% Caustic, Sterlitamak 38% Usolyechemprom 18% Kazakhstan 8% 14% Sayanskchemplast Caustic. 13% Volgograd Turkey 17% 30% Source: MRC 28
  • Russian Production in 2007 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Producer 2007 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 Caustic, Sterlitamak 21.40 20.00 22.10 21.10 21.90 21.10 21.00 13.50 19.60 23.10 21.90 23.00 249.70 Caustic, Volgograd 20.00 17.80 19.90 17.70 19.30 19.70 20.30 18.10 15.40 21.10 20.90 21.30 231.50 Sayanskchemplast 14.60 13.30 14.40 14.30 13.70 14.10 14.60 8.90 11.60 14.20 14.10 14.50 162.30 Usolyechemprom 9.60 5.50 7.10 8.30 6.00 9.00 8.40 6.60 9.30 8.40 9.70 9.90 97.80 Chemprom, 8.00 7.40 8.20 8.00 8.20 7.50 8.10 7.60 7.80 7.80 7.90 8.10 94.60 Novocheboksarsk Chemprom, Volgograd 7.60 7.70 7.20 6.50 7.40 7.80 7.90 7.10 7.60 6.10 6.80 7.50 87.20 Sibur-Neftechem, 8.00 7.40 8.50 7.90 6.00 7.00 6.80 7.70 6.60 6.10 7.30 7.40 86.70 Dzerzhynsk Kirovo-Chepetsky Plant 7.30 6.30 5.80 6.70 5.80 5.70 6.50 7.50 7.40 6.40 6.50 8.80 80.70 Ilimchemprom 5.40 4.30 6.30 6.40 5.60 5.70 6.50 6.40 6.20 6.80 6.10 6.60 72.30 Chemprom, Kemerovo 3.90 3.50 3.80 3.40 3.00 3.70 3.60 3.20 2.80 3.70 3.50 4.60 42.70 Azot, Novomoskovsk 4.80 4.60 4.80 3.70 3.20 2.30 2.30 2.40 3.10 3.50 3.50 3.50 41.70 others 5.00 3.50 5.30 4.00 3.70 4.50 3.50 3.30 3.60 3.90 3.40 3.70 47.40 Total 115.60 101.30 113.40 108.00 103.80 108.10 109.50 92.30 101.00 111.10 111.60 118.90 1 294.60 Source: MRC 29
  • Russian PVC resin market: time of Import Production Export Import PVC-S, KT 600 +80% 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 PVC-E, KT 120 +25% 80 40 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRC 30
  • Russian PVC resin market in 2007 Production, KT Apparent Consumption, KT 60 80 45 60 30 40 15 20 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 08 Import to Apparent Consumption,% Import, KT 60% 40 30 ! 45% 30% 20 15% 10 0% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 08 Source: MRC 31
  • Import of PVC-S: Asia wins Import in 2006, % Import in 2007, % others others Netherlands 7% 15% 2% Turkey Romania 5% 3% China Taiwan 31% Hungary 7% China 5% Norway 44% Netherlands 8% 53% 5% Hungary 72% Finland 8% South Korea 8% South Korea Norway 22% 9% 21% By Producers, 2006, % By Producers, 2007, % Xinjiang Tianye 14% others others Oltchim 12% 35% 3% LG Tianjin Dagu 11% Xinjiang Tianye 5% 36% Formosa Hanwha 7% 11% BorsodChem BorsodChem 5% Hydro 8% Shandong Finnplast 10% LG Hydro 6% 8% Hanwha 11% 10% 11% 32 Source: MRC
  • Currency rate is an additional market driver EUR/USD +16% Additional advantage of Asian & US producers in Europe EUR/RUB USD/RUB UAH/RUB + 6% - 9% - 8% Source: MRC 33
  • Agenda Outlook of Russian production till 2012 24
  • Russian Caustic Soda Market New Caustic Soda market till 2012, dmt PVC project 1 600 1 200 800 400 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Production Export Import Source: MRC 34
  • Caustic Soda Balance till 2015: Nikochem Source: Nikochem Production Capacities, Kta Caustic Soda D and, 000 D T em M Caustic Soda Production, 000 D T M 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Big hope on Komi Alumina project (1.4 mln. MT or 150,000 mt of Caustic Soda) 35
  • Caustic Soda Balance till 2012: MRC P dem VC and P production VC Ethylene D and em KT Caustic Soda Equivalent Caustic Soda Production Caustic Soda D and em 1 600 1 200 800 400 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: MRC 37
  • Production chain of PVC 0,66 MT Caustic and ethylene – key limitations Chlorine Caustic for Russian PVC producers 0,57 MT 1,03 MT 1 MT EDC VCM PVC Ethylene Oxychloride Hydrochloric 0,43 MT acid Oxygen 38
  • Current PVC production balance, KT PVC VCM Chlorine Chlorine Ethylene Ethylene Producers Salt capacity capacity needs production needs deliveries Sayanskchemplast 250 270 150 103 103 variable own Caustik Sterlitamak 150 160 89 193 72 variable own Nikos 80 80 42 181 40 variable own Sibur-Neftechim 42 36 20 77 15 stable supplied Azot 47 45 25 70 - acetylene supplied Pervomaysk 50 - 26 100 - not own Usolechemprom 24 26 14 56 - variable own Chemprom Volgograd 27 27 15 - - variable own Karpatneftechem - 370 150 104 104 stable supplied Total* 670 644 371 780 230 - - * without Kalush Source: MRC 39
  • Resume • Chinese producers have to find the balance in chlorine /caustic soda • Eastern European production balance generally will not change in future • New PVC production in Russia will increase the supply of Caustic Soda • Export of Caustic Soda will be correlated with Komi project performance • We will not observe the deficit of Caustic Soda in Russia till 2012 40
  • Thank you! Sergey Yaremenko, Managing Director, Market Report Company sergey.yaremenko@mrcplast.com; www.mrcplast.com Moscow +7 495 543 91 94; Kiev +38 044 599 29 50