Mercury National Polling Assessment - September 2012
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Mercury National Polling Assessment - September 2012

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Dear Clients and Friends of Mercury: ...

Dear Clients and Friends of Mercury:

As you know, polling has always been core to the DNA of our company, an original capability dating back to 1999 which remains a critical part of our daily strategic work.
Since the founding of the firm, there has been an explosion of polling data and polling firms, particularly during election years. To that end, we've decided to have our polling shop analyze the public polling data and provide you with a brief summary of what we're seeing in the public data that is credible, well-researched, interesting and timely.
For the balance of this election season, we will provide this update on a bi-weekly basis. Post-election, we will continue with presentations monthly unless events warrant more frequent updates.
This service is free to our clients and friends but if you do not want to receive this document, please let us know and we will immediately remove you from the distribution.

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Mercury National Polling Assessment - September 2012 Mercury National Polling Assessment - September 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • National Polling AssessmentSeptember 2012
  • Key Numbers at a Glance Right Direction/ Unemployment Consumer Wrong Track Confidence 39% 8.1% -46.5 Right Direction August 2012 Sept. 9th, 2012 Healthcare Reform Obama Job Approval Obama Favorability 40% 50% 53% Good Idea Approve Favorable Romney 2012 Ballot Generic Ballot Favorability 44% 48% - 43% 49% - 43% Favorable Mercury. 2
  • The country’s attitude about the future is improving… Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Right Direction/ Wrong Track: 39% Right Direction Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 3
  • …though unemployment remains above 8%... Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment: 8.1% August 2012 Mercury. 4
  • …and consumer confidence is stagnant. Consumer Confidence Index by Bloomberg: Consumer Confidence -42.2 Sept. 9th 2012 Mercury. 5
  • Despite passing SCTOUS, health care reform is unpopular. From what you have heard about Barack Obamas health care plan that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in 2010, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? Healthcare Reform 40% Good Idea NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted July 18-22, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 6
  • However, Obama’s job approval is resilient… Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Obama Job Approval 50% Approve Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 7
  • …and his favorability remains high… Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Barack Obama? Obama Favorable 53% Favorable (net +10) ABC News/Washington Post Poll, conducted September 5-9, 2012 n=837 RVs, MoE = ± 4% Mercury. 8
  • …while Romney’s favorability is inverted… Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney? Romney Favorable 44% Favorable (net -5) ABC News/Washington Post Poll, conducted September 5-9, 2012 n=837 RVs, MoE = ± 4% Mercury. 9
  • …leading to an edge for Obama on the ballot… If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? 2012 Ballot 48% - 43% Fox News Poll, conducted September 9 – 11, 2012, n=1,056 RVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 10
  • …and in key swing states. Swing State Polling New Hampshire Wisconsin (10 EVs) (4 EVs) Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama 45, Romney 40 Iowa (6 EVs) (Quinnipiac, 8/15-21, (WMUR, 9/4-10, n=592 LV) n=1190 LV) Obama 47, Romney 45 (PPP, 8/23-26, n=1244 LV) Ohio (18 EVs) Obama 50, Romney 43 Colorado (9 EVs) (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11, n=979 LV) Obama 49, Romney 46 (PPP, 8/31-9/2, n=1001 LV) Virginia (13 EVs) Obama 49, Romney 44 (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11, n=996 LV) Missouri (10 EVs) Arizona (11 EVs) Obama 43, Romney 50 Obama 44, Romney 53 (Mason-Dixon, 8/22-23, (PPP, 9/7 – 9/9, n=993 LV) n=625 LV) Florida (29 EVs) Obama 49, Romney 44 (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11, n=980 LV) Mercury. 11
  • Intrade also like Obama’s chances at re-election… Intrade: Obama Re-Election 63.2% September 13 Mercury. 12
  • … while the Twitter-verse remains unkind to Romney. Twitter Political Index 23% - 11% (September 13th) Source: election.twitter.com Mercury. 13
  • Paul Ryan’s image is good, but is historically unimportant. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people: Paul Ryan Paul Ryan CNN/ORC Poll, conducted August 31 – September 3 2012 n=1,005 adults, MoE = ± 3.4% Mercury. 14
  • Republicans have ceded their generic ballot advantage… If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? Congressional Ballot 49% - 43% Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 15
  • …though they are poised to pick up seats in the Senate… State of the Senate Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP Connecticut Florida Massachusetts Arizona Nebraska (Open) (Nelson) (Brown) (Open) (Open) Hawaii Missouri Montana Indiana (Open) (McCaskill) (Tester) (Open) Maine New Mexico Nevada North Dakota (Open) (Open) (Heller) (Open) Michigan Ohio Virginia (Stabenow) (Brown) (Open) Wisconsin (Open) Mercury. 16
  • …and toss-ups will determine who controls the chamber. Latest Senate Polling Wisconsin: Montana: Thompson (R): 50% Massachusetts: Baldwin (D): 44% Rehberg (R): 47% Tester (D): 43% Brown (R): 49% Warren (D): 44% Virginia: Kaine (D): 46% Allen (R): 46% Missouri: Nevada: Akin (R): 43% Heller (R): 47% McCaskill (D): 49% Berkley (D): 45% Mercury. 17
  • About Twitter’s Political Index Twitter introduced a Political Index that scores all tweets about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as “positive”, “negative”, or “neutral” The number associated with each candidate represents, on average, the percentage of tweets about that candidate that were more positive than all Tweets about any topic. Because the data it analyzes are completely unprovoked (as compared to a political survey), we find value in the Index in measuring the daily “winner” of users’ sentiments; evidence has also shown that the Index’s measurements for Obama do correlate with his net approval rating. We are unconvinced of its predictive power: the users of Twitter are not representative of the national electorate, and positive or Learn more about the index at negative tweets do not correlate with votes. elections.twitter.com The “Twindex” is a prototype in using social media as a metric for The “Twindex” is a prototype in using social media as a metric for an election. The world of social media will continue to merge with an election. The world of social media will continue to merge with the world of politics and public affairs. Our digital team can help the world of politics and public affairs. Our digital team can help you stay on top of and leverage new developments like this to you stay on top of and leverage new developments like this to achieve your policy and business goals. achieve your policy and business goals.Mercury. 18
  • National Polling Assessment September 2012 Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko CEO President New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon Co-Chairman Partner Partner Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber Partner Partner PartnerSacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com Mercury. 19