Mcw national assessment september 28 2012

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  • 1. National Polling AssessmentSeptember 2012
  • 2. Key Numbers at a Glance Right Direction/ Unemployment Consumer Wrong Track Confidence 42% 8.1% -40.8 Right Direction August 2012 Sept. 16th, 2012 Obama Job Approval Obama Romney Favorability Favorability 50% 53% 48% Approve Favorable Favorable 2012 Ballot Intrade: Generic Ballot Obama Re-elect 48% - 43% 78.1% 47% - 45% Sept. 28th, 2012 Mercury. 2
  • 3. As optimism about the future becomes a political issue… Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Right Direction/ Wrong Track: 42% Right Direction AP-GfK poll, conducted September 13-17, 2012 n=807 LVs, MoE = ± 4.3% Mercury. 3
  • 4. … many voters say they’re better off than four years ago… Are you better off or worse off than you were at the beginning of 2009? (Bloomberg poll, conducted September 21-24, n=1007 adults, MoE = ± 3.1%) Better/Worse Off: Compared with four years ago, are you and your family better off today, worse off today, or about the same? (CBS/NYT poll, conducted September 8-12, n=1301 adults, MoE = ± 3.0%) Thinking about your situation today compared to what it was four years ago, are you better off than you were four years ago, or not? (FOX News poll, conducted September 9-11, n=1056 adults, MoE = ± 3.0%) 43% Better Off *”About the Same” was a given in option on the CBS/NYT survey only Mercury. 4
  • 5. …despite stubborn unemployment numbers… Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment: 8.1% August 2012Mercury. 5
  • 6. …and unchanging consumer confidence numbers. Consumer Confidence Index by Bloomberg: Consumer Confidence -40.8 Sept. 16th 2012 Mercury. 6
  • 7. However, Obama has maintained a steady approval… Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Obama Job Approval 50% Approve NBC/WSJ poll, conducted September 12-16, 2012 n=900 RVs, MoE = ± 3.3% Mercury. 7
  • 8. …combined with a high personal favorability… Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Barack Obama? Obama Favorable 53% Favorable (net +9) AP-GfK poll, conducted September 13-17, 2012 n=807 LVs, MoE = ± 4.3% Mercury. 8
  • 9. …which is an area Romney has struggled in… Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney? Romney Favorable 48% Favorable (net +2) AP-GfK poll, conducted September 13-17, 2012 n=807 LVs, MoE = ± 4.3% Mercury. 9
  • 10. …leading to an Obama lead with five weeks to go. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? 2012 Ballot 48% - 43% FOX News poll, conducted September 24-26, 2012 n=1092 LVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 10
  • 11. More so than national polls, swing states favor Obama… Swing State Polling New Hampshire (4 EVs) Wisconsin (10 EVs) Obama 45, Romney 48 Obama 52, Romney 45 (Rasmussen, 9/15-17, Iowa (6 EVs) (PPP, 9/18-19, n=500 LV) n=842 LV) Obama 51, Romney 44 (PPP, 9/24-26, n=754 LV) Ohio (18 EVs) Obama 49, Romney 42 Colorado (9 EVs) (FOX News, 9/16-18, n=1009 LV) Obama 51, Romney 45 (PPP, 9/20-23, n=940 LV) Virginia (13 EVs) Obama 46, Romney 43 (Purple Strategies, 9/15-19, n=600 LV) Missouri (10 EVs) Arizona (11 EVs) Obama 45, Romney 48 Obama 42, Romney 52 (Rasmussen, 9/11, (Rasmussen, 9/25, n=500 LV) n=500 LV) Florida (29 EVs) Obama 49, Romney 46 (Florida Times-Union, 9/24, n=540 LV) Mercury. 11
  • 12. …particularly in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida… Recent Polls Ohio (18 EVs) 49% - 44% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Obama Obama RomneyJob Approval Favorable Favorable (RCP Average) 50% 54% 41% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Approve Favorable Favorable (net +3) (net +11) (net -8) CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll, conducted September 18-24, 2012 n=1162 LVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 12
  • 13. …three states Romney cannot win without… Recent Polls Virginia (15 EVs) 49% - 45% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Obama Obama RomneyJob Approval Favorable Favorable (RCP Average) 53% 58% 48% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Approve Favorable Favorable (net +8) (net +19) (net +2) FOX News poll, conducted September 16-18, 2012 n=1006 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 13
  • 14. …but where key indicators point in Obama’s favor. Recent Polls Florida (28 EVs) 49% - 46% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Obama Obama RomneyJob Approval Favorable Favorable (RCP Average) 50% 54% 41% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Approve Favorable Favorable (net +3) (net +12) (net -7) CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll, conducted September 18-24, 2012 n=1162 LVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 14
  • 15. Recent polling leads have the markets rallying to Obama… Intrade: Obama Re-Election 78.1% September 28 Mercury. 15
  • 16. …while downballot Democrats reap the benefits… If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? Congressional Ballot 47% - 45% GWU/Politco poll, conducted September 16-20, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 16
  • 17. …giving them an even chance at keeping the Senate… State of the Senate Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP Hawaii Florida Connecticut Arizona Nebraska (Open) (Nelson) (Open) (Open) (Open) Maine Missouri Massachusetts Indiana (Open) (McCaskill) (Brown) (Open) Michigan New Mexico Montana North Dakota (Stabenow) (Open) (Tester) (Open) Ohio Nevada (Brown) (Heller) Virginia (Open) Wisconsin (Open) Mercury. 17
  • 18. …though many states will go down to the wire. Latest Senate Polling Montana: Wisconsin: Massachusetts: Tester (D): 48% Baldwin (D): 48% Brown (R): 48% Rehberg (R): 45% Thomspon (R): 46% Warren (D): 48% (Mason-Dixon, 9/17-19, n=625 LV) (Marist, 9/16-18, n=968 LV) (Rasmussen, 9/24, n=500 LV) Connecticut: Murphy (D): 48% McMahon (R): 42% (PPP, 9/24-26, n=801 LV) Missouri: McCaskill (D): 43% Akin (R): 49% Nevada: (Rasmussen, 9/11, n=500 LV) Virginia: Heller (R): 49% Kaine (D): 46% Berkley (D): 43% Allen (R): 46% (Marist, 9/23-25, n=984 LV) (Suffolk, 9/24-26, n=600 LV) Florida: Nelson (D): 48% Mack (R): 40% (Mason-Dixon, 9/17-19, n=800 LV) Mercury. 18
  • 19. National Polling Assessment September 2012 Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko CEO President New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon Co-Chairman Partner Partner Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber Partner Partner PartnerSacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com Mercury. 19