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Mcw national assessment october 25 2012

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  • 1. National Polling AssessmentOctober 25 2012
  • 2. Just over half of voters believe we’re on the wrong track… Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction/ Wrong Track: 53% Wrong Track CBS News poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1383 LVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 2
  • 3. …and Obama’s approval rating is at or near 50%... How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? Obama Job Approval 49% Approve NBC/WSJ poll, conducted October 17-20, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 3
  • 4. …while his favorability edge over Romney… Is your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Obama Favorable 52% Favorable (net +6) ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 4
  • 5. …has disappeared in the last month of the campaign. Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Romney Favorable 50% Favorable (net +3) ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=1376 LVs, MoE = ± 3% Mercury. 5
  • 6. Mitt Romney has a narrow lead in national polling… Recent Polls RCP Average 47.1 - 47.7 Source: RealClearPolitics.com Source: RealClearPolitics.com Source: Gallup.com Mercury. 6
  • 7. …though markets still favor Obama. Why the disparity? Intrade: Obama Re-Election 59.7% October 25 Mercury. 7
  • 8. Because Romney faces tough odds if he cannot win Ohio. Electoral College Outlook 270 Needed to Win | Swing States in Purple Obama 196 EVs + New Mexico (5) + Michigan (16) + Pennsylvania (20) ------------------------- - 237 EVs Romney 159 EVs + Arizona (11) + Missouri (10) + Indiana (11) + North Carolina (15) ------------------------- - 206 EVs Mercury. 8
  • 9. Key Ohio Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - OH Intrade 47.9 - 45.8 60.0% Obama Victory 18 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 47.4 - 42.2 52% - 47% Sherrod Brown (inc.) Josh Mandel Mercury. 9
  • 10. Romney has closed the favorability gap in Ohio… Ohio Obama Favorable 50% Favorable (net +4) Romney Favorable 50% Favorable (net +5) Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4% Mercury. 10
  • 11. …but not yet enough to overtake Obama. Ohio 2012 Ballot 47% - 47% Suffolk University poll, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=600 LVs, MoE = ± 4% Mercury. 11
  • 12. Key Virginia Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - VA Intrade 48.0 - 48.0 54.1% Romney Victory 13 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 47.0 - 46.0 53% - 46% Tim Kaine George Allen Mercury. 12
  • 13. Virginia is a similar story… Virginia Obama Favorable 50% Favorable (net +2) Romney Favorable 50% Favorable (net +3) Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5% Mercury. 13
  • 14. …though Obama trails in only few polls. Virginia 2012 Ballot 46% - 45% Mellman Group poll for Americans United for Change, conducted October 18-21, 2012 n=800 LVs, MoE = ± 3.5% Mercury. 14
  • 15. Key Florida Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - FL Intrade 47.0 - 48.7 70.2% Romney Victory 28 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 47.0 - 41.5 51% - 48% Bill Nelson (inc.) Connie Mack IV Mercury. 15
  • 16. Romney is starting to run away with Florida… Florida Obama Favorable 51% Favorable (net +6) Romney Favorable 55% Favorable (net +15) FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012 n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 16
  • 17. …allowing the campaign to focus resources elsewhere. Florida 2012 Ballot 45% - 48% FOX News poll, conducted October 17-18, 2012 n=1130 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 17
  • 18. Key Wisconsin Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - WI Intrade 49.5 - 46.8 71.0% Obama Victory 10 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 46.8 - 46.0 56% - 42% Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson Mercury. 18
  • 19. However, Wisconsin remains an uphill battle for Romney… Wisconsin Obama Favorable 53% Favorable (net +9) Romney Favorable 47% Favorable (net +0) NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012 n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 19
  • 20. …as Obama continues to lead despite Paul Ryan on the ticket. Wisconsin 2012 Ballot 51% - 45% NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted October 15-17, 2012 n=1013 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 20
  • 21. Key New Hampshire Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - NH Intrade 48.2 - 47.4 55.1% Obama Victory 4 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 54% - 44% None Mercury. 21
  • 22. Key Nevada Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - NV Intrade 49.5 - 46.8 75.1% Obama Victory 6 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 45.8 - 41.0 55% - 43% Dean Heller (inc.) Shelley Berkley Mercury. 22
  • 23. Key Colorado Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - CO Intrade 47.6 - 47.8 53.4% Romney Victory 9 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 54% - 45% None Mercury. 23
  • 24. Key Iowa Numbers at a Glance RCP Average - IA Intrade 48.8 - 46.8 63.0% Obama Victory 6 EVs RCP Average (Senate) 2008 Results 54% - 44% None Mercury. 24
  • 25. Republicans can pick up one to three Senate seats… State of the Senate Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP Hawaii Connecticut Massachusetts Arizona Nebraska (Open) (Open) (Brown) (Open) (Open) Maine Florida Montana Indiana (Open) (Nelson) (Tester) (Open) Michigan Missouri Nevada (Stabenow) (McCaskill) (Heller) New Mexico Ohio North Dakota (Open) (Brown) (Open) Virginia (Open) Wisconsin (Open) Mercury. 25
  • 26. … though control of the chamber requires running the table. Latest Senate Polling Massachusetts: Wisconsin: Brown (R): 44% Warren (D): 50% Baldwin (D): 47% (WBUR/MassINC, 10/21-22, Montana: Thomspon (R): 45% n=516 LV) Tester (D): 48% (Mason-Dixon, 10/15-17, n=625 LV) Rehberg (R): 48% (Rasmussen, 10/14, n=500 LV) Connecticut: Murphy (D): 49% North Dakota: McMahon (R): 43% (Quinnipiac, 10/9-22, Heitkamp (D): 40% n=1412 LV) Berg (R): 50% (Forum/Essman, 10/12-15, n=500 LV) Virginia: Kaine (D): 49% Nevada: Allen (R): 48% Heller (R): 46% (Rasmussen, 10/18, n=500LV) Berkley (D): 40% (SurveyUSA, 10/11-15, n=806 LV) Missouri: Florida: McCaskill (D): 51% Akin (R): 45% Nelson (D): 45% (Rasmussen, 9/2, n=500 LV) Mack (R): 41% (PPP, 10/17-18, n=800 LV) Mercury. 26
  • 27. National Polling Assessment October 25 2012 Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko CEO President New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon Co-Chairman Partner Partner Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber Partner Partner PartnerSacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com Mercury. 27