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National Polling AssessmentOctober 11 2012
Key Numbers at a Glance          Right Direction/                           Unemployment                                  ...
Optimism about the economy and country is improving…     Do you think things in this country are generally going in the ri...
…as unemployment dips below the 8% barrier…     Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:                   ...
…and a solid majority believe the economy is recovering.     Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recover...
Obama’s job approval continues to hover at 50%...     How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president:...
…though his personal favorability is higher than Romney’s…     Is your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mos...
…though Romney has begun to close the gap.    Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mos...
In addition, Romney’s victory in the first debate…     Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you thi...
…has produced a small Romney lead a month out...      If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if ...
… as the RCP average favors Romney for the 1st time since July...               Recent Polls                       RCP Ave...
…and Romney has closed the gap in several swing states.                                        Swing State Polling        ...
Polls in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida have tightened…               Recent Polls - OH                                      ...
…though the key indicators are still in Obama’s favor…               Recent Polls - VA                                    ...
…but the door is open for Romney to build on his momentum.               Recent Polls - FL                                ...
The recent turnaround is well-reflected by Intrade’s markets…                                           Intrade:          ...
…though downballot Democrats still enjoy a small edge…      If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you v...
…as the Senate math gets harder for Republicans…                             State of the Senate               Likely DEM ...
… with difficulties in WI, VA, FL, MO, and even North Dakota.                                   Latest Senate Polling     ...
National Polling Assessment                                                  October 11 2012                            Ki...
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Mercury National Polling Assessment - October 11 2012

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Dear Clients and friends of Mercury:

As you know, polling has always been core to the DNA of our company, an original capability dating back to 1999 which remains a critical part of our daily strategic work. Since the founding of the firm, there has been an explosion of polling data and polling firms, particularly during election years. To that end, we’ve decided to have our polling shop analyze the public polling data and provide you with a brief summary of what we’re seeing in the public data that is credible, well-researched, interesting and timely. For the balance of this election season, we will provide this update on a bi-weekly basis. Post-election, we will continue with presentations monthly unless events warrant more frequent updates.

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Transcript of "Mercury National Polling Assessment - October 11 2012"

  1. 1. National Polling AssessmentOctober 11 2012
  2. 2. Key Numbers at a Glance Right Direction/ Unemployment Obama Wrong Track Job Approval 38% 7.8% 50% Right Direction September 2012 Approve (Sept 28: 42%) (August 2012: 8.1%) (Sept 28: 50%) Obama Romney 1st Debate Favorability Favorability 50% 45% 67% Favorable Favorable Romney Won (Sept 28: 53%) (Sept 28: 48%) 2012 Ballot Intrade: Generic Ballot Obama Re-elect 45% - 49% 61.9% 46% - 45% October 11th, 2012 (Sept 28: 48% - 43%) (Sept 28: 47% - 45%) (Sept 28: 78.1%) (Key Numbers at a Glance from September 28, 2012 report in parenthesis ) Mercury. 2
  3. 3. Optimism about the economy and country is improving… Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction/ Wrong Track: 38% Right Direction ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=845 RVs, MoE = ± 4% Mercury. 3
  4. 4. …as unemployment dips below the 8% barrier… Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment: 7.8% September 2012 Mercury. 4
  5. 5. …and a solid majority believe the economy is recovering. Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering? Economy Recovering? (NBC/WSJ poll, conducted 9/26-30/12, n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%) 57% Is Recovering Mercury. 5
  6. 6. Obama’s job approval continues to hover at 50%... How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? Obama Job Approval 50% Approve GWU/Politico Battleground poll, conducted October 1-4, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 6
  7. 7. …though his personal favorability is higher than Romney’s… Is your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Obama Favorable 50% Favorable (net +5) Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4% Mercury. 7
  8. 8. …though Romney has begun to close the gap. Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Romney Favorable 45% Favorable (net -2) Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4% Mercury. 8
  9. 9. In addition, Romney’s victory in the first debate… Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?(CNN poll, conducted 1st Debate 10/3/12, n=430 adult debate watchers, MoE = ± 4.5%) Which candidate do you think did the best job – or won – tonight’s debate? (CBS/GfK poll, conducted 10/3/12, n=523 uncommitted voters, MoE = ±4.0%) Mercury. 9
  10. 10. …has produced a small Romney lead a month out... If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? 2012 Ballot 45% - 49% Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4% Mercury. 10
  11. 11. … as the RCP average favors Romney for the 1st time since July... Recent Polls RCP Average 46% - 47% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Source: RealClearPolitics.com Mercury. 11
  12. 12. …and Romney has closed the gap in several swing states. Swing State Polling New Hampshire (4 EVs) Wisconsin (10 EVs) Obama 47, Romney 41 (WMUR/UNH, 9/30-10/6, Obama 49, Romney 47 n=559 LV) Iowa (6 EVs) (PPP, 10/4-6, n=979 LV) Nevada (5 EVs) Obama 49, Romney 47 (Rasmussen, 10/7, n=500 LV) Obama 47, Romney 45 (Suffolk/KSNV, 10/6-9, n=500 LV) Ohio (18 EVs) Obama 51, Romney 45 (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=994 LV) Virginia (13 EVs) Obama 47, Romney 48 (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=981 LV) Colorado (9 EVs) Obama 46, Romney 50 (ARG, 10/5-8, Missouri (10 EVs) n=600 LV) Florida (29 EVs) Obama 45, Romney 51 (PPP, 10/1-3, Obama 48, Romney 47 n=700 LV) (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=988 LV) Mercury. 12
  13. 13. Polls in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida have tightened… Recent Polls - OH Ohio (18 EVs) 48% - 46% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Obama Obama RomneyJob Approval Favorable Favorable (RCP Average) 49% 51% 44% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Approve Favorable Favorable (net +3) (net +7) (net -6) NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=994 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 13
  14. 14. …though the key indicators are still in Obama’s favor… Recent Polls - VA Virginia (15 EVs) 48% - 48% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Obama Obama RomneyJob Approval Favorable Favorable (RCP Average) 48% 51% 49% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Approve Favorable Favorable (net +1) (net +6) (net +5) NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=981 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 14
  15. 15. …but the door is open for Romney to build on his momentum. Recent Polls - FL Florida (28 EVs) 48% - 48% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Obama Obama RomneyJob Approval Favorable Favorable (RCP Average) 48% 52% 49% Source: RealClearPolitics.com Approve Favorable Favorable (net +2) (net +9) (net +5) NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=988 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 15
  16. 16. The recent turnaround is well-reflected by Intrade’s markets… Intrade: Obama Re-Election 61.9% October 11 Mercury. 16
  17. 17. …though downballot Democrats still enjoy a small edge… If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? Congressional Ballot 46% - 45% GWU/Politico Battleground poll, conducted October 1-4, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1% Mercury. 17
  18. 18. …as the Senate math gets harder for Republicans… State of the Senate Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOP Hawaii Connecticut Massachusetts Arizona Nebraska (Open) (Open) (Brown) (Open) (Open) Maine Florida Montana Indiana (Open) (Nelson) (Tester) (Open) Michigan Missouri Nevada (Stabenow) (McCaskill) (Heller) New Mexico Ohio North Dakota (Open) (Brown) (Open) Virginia (Open) Wisconsin (Open) Mercury. 18
  19. 19. … with difficulties in WI, VA, FL, MO, and even North Dakota. Latest Senate Polling Massachusetts: Brown (R): 48% Wisconsin: Warren (D): 45% Baldwin (D): 49% (WBUR/MassINC, 10/5-7, Montana: n=501 LV) Thomspon (R): 46% Tester (D): 48% (PPP, 10/4-6, n=979 LV) Rehberg (R): 45%(Mason-Dixon, 9/17-19, n=625 LV) Connecticut: Murphy (D): 51% North Dakota: McMahon (R): 46% (Rasmussen, 10/7, n=500 LV) Heitkamp (D): 47% Berg (R): 47% (Mason-Dixon, 10/3-5, n=625 LV) Virginia: Kaine (D): 47% Nevada: Allen (R): 46% Heller (R): 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=981 LV) Berkley (D): 44% (PPP, 10/8-10, n=594 LV) Missouri: Florida: McCaskill (D): 51% Nelson (D): 52% Akin (R): 45% (Rasmussen, 9/2, n=500 LV) Mack (R): 39% (NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=988 LV) Mercury. 19
  20. 20. National Polling Assessment October 11 2012 Kieran Mahoney Kirill Goncharenko CEO President New York, NY | kmahoney@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | kgoncharenko@mercuryllc.com Senator James Talent Hon. Fernando Ferrer Hon. Fabian Nunez Co-Chairman Co-Chairman Partner Washington, DC| jtalent@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | fferrer@mercuryllc.com Sacramento, CA| fnunez@mercuryllc.com Hon. Max Sandlin Thomas Doherty Michael McKeon Co-Chairman Partner Partner Washington, DC | msandlin@mercuryllc.com Albany, NY | tdoherty@mercuryllc.com New York, NY | mmckeon@mercuryllc.com Adam Mendelsohn Michael DuHaime Hon. Vin Weber Partner Partner PartnerSacramento, CA| amendelsohn@mercuryllc.com Westfield, NJ| mduhaime@mercuryllc.com Washington, DC | vin@cwdc.com Mercury. 20
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