Technical analysis ala fundamental analyst

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Technical Analysis methods that are frequently used by Fundamental Analyst

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Technical analysis ala fundamental analyst

  1. 1. Technical Analysis ala Fundamental Analyst MM Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
  2. 2. Technical Analysis (CFTe Version) John J. Murphy • “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” • The study of market action through the use of chats for the purpose of forecasting future price trends Martin J. Pring • “Technical Analysis Explained” • The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards • “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends” • The science of recording in graphic form the actual history of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
  3. 3. The Use of Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Trend Analysis Timing Analysis Price Analysis Investment Strategy Decision & Action
  4. 4. Technical Analysis Branches Technical Analysis Classic Modern (Indicators)
  5. 5. Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Basic Theory Dow Jones Theory Trend Analysis Supply Demand Line Analysis Support Resistance Trendline Channel Price Pattern Analysis Candlestick Bar Chart Gap Analysis Chart Pattern Analysis Reversal Pattern Continuation Pattern Hybrid Pattern Volume Analysis Spesific Theory Elliot Wave Gann Method Fibonacci Method Indicators
  6. 6. Indicators Indicators Momentum Stochastic Oscillator RSI Trend Following Moving Average MACD Volume On Balance Volume Volatility Bollinger Band Average Trading Range Sentiment Market Breadth Advance Decline Quantitative Methods Standard Deviation Linear Regression Line
  7. 7. Technical Analysis’ Premises  Price Discounts Everything  Price Moves in Trend  History Repeats Itself
  8. 8. Detail Definition of Technical Analysis
  9. 9. Technical Analysis John J. Murphy • “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” • The study of market action through the use of charts for the purpose of forecasting future price trends Martin J. Pring • “Technical Analysis Explained” • The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards • “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends” • The science of recording in graphic form the actual history of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
  10. 10. Objects  Actual History of Market Action  Recording in Graphic Form or Charts  Market Action are  Price  Volume  Open Interest (in Futures Market)
  11. 11. Objectives  Deducing From That The Probable Future Trend  Forecasting Future Price Trends or A Trend Reversal
  12. 12. Time  Relatively Early Stage  Until Weight of the Evidence The Trend Has Reversed
  13. 13. The Point Is ... Everything that “use” Historical Data to predict Future Movement is a Technical Analysis  FULL STOP !
  14. 14. Market Analyst Fundamental Analysis Economic Analysis Technical Analysis Bandarmologi (Tape Reading) STRATEGIST Experience
  15. 15. History Repeat Itself & Price Moves in Trend
  16. 16. Cycle and Seasonality Cycle • Kondratieff • Presidential • 40 Months Coal Newcastle Seasonality • Ramadhan • January Effect • Windows Dressing • Sell in May and Go Away
  17. 17. January Effect in JCI January Effect terjadi 15 kali sejak tahun 1991 (23 tahun) sehingga peluang terjadinya adalah 65.2%
  18. 18. Windows Dressing in JCI Sejak tahun 1990, IHSG pada akhir bulan Desember selalu naik dibanding akhir bulan November kecuali pada tahun 1992, 1994 dan 2000
  19. 19. MoM Inflation Inflasi MoM cenderung turun dari 1Q hingga 2Q lalu kemudian naik lagi hingga awal 3Q kemudian menjelang 4Q namun kembali naik di akhir 4Q
  20. 20. CPIN Near Ramadhan CPIN naik minimal 24% hingga 93% dua bulan menjelang Lebaran antara 2009 hingga 2012
  21. 21. Siklus 40 Bulan Batubara Newcaslte
  22. 22. Kondratieff Cycle and Presidential Cycle
  23. 23. (Fundamental) Trend Analysis
  24. 24. Uptrend and Downtrend HH HH HL HL HH : Higher High HL : Higher Low LH : Lower High LL : Lower Low LL LL LH LH UPTREND DOWNTREND
  25. 25. Standard Definition in “Opposite”  Technical Rebound  A temporary and relatively small rise during Downtrend  Technical Correction  A temporary and relatively small fall during Uptrend Technical Rebound Technical Correction
  26. 26. Trend Analysis Trend • Uptrend • Downtrend Strengthening Trend • Accelerating Uptrend • Accelerating Downtrend Against Trend • Deccelerating Uptrend • Deccelerating Downtrend • Technical Rebound • Technical Correction Trend Reversal • Bullish Reversal • Bearish Reversal
  27. 27. Rising YoY ; Rising QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
  28. 28. Rising YoY ; Falling QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
  29. 29. Falling YoY ; Rising QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
  30. 30. Falling YoY ; Falling QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
  31. 31. Financial Statement – Trend Analysis  Trend  Uptrend  YoY Rise and QoQ Rise  Downtrend  YoY Fall and QoQ Fall  Strengthening Trend  Accelerating Uptrend  QoQ Rise > YoY Rise  Accelerating Downtrend  QoQ Fall > YoY Fall  Against Trend  Deccelerating Uptrend  QoQ Rise < YoY Rise  Deccelerating Downtrend  QoQ Fall < YoY Fall  Technical Correction  YoY Rise but QoQ Fall  Technical Rebound  YoY Fall but QoQ Rise
  32. 32. Chart Pattern Types Reversal Pattern Bullish Double / Triple Bottoms Inverted Head and Shoulders Bearish Double / Triple Tops Head and Shoulders Continuation Pattern Bullish Ascending Triangle Falling Wedges Bullish Flag Cup and Handle Bearish Descending Triangle Rising Wedges Bearish Flag Hybrid Pattern Symmetrical Triangle Rectangle Rounding Top Rounding Bottom
  33. 33. Double / Triple Tops The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement  Previous Condition :  Uptrend  Expected Movement  Downtrend Target Price  The Height between two or three Tops to Baseline, projected Downward Example
  34. 34. Head and Shoulders The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement  Previous Condition :  Uptrend  Expected Movement  Downtrend Target Price  Height between Head and Neckline, projected Downward Example
  35. 35. Inflasi YoY – Inverted Head and Shoulders
  36. 36. Logic Technical Analysis’ Indicators
  37. 37. Technical Analysis’ Indicators Indicators Momentum Stochastic Oscillator RSI Trend Following Moving Average MACD Volume On Balance Volume Volatility Bollinger Band Average Trading Range Sentiment Market Breadth Advance Decline Quantitative Methods Standard Deviation Linear Regression Line
  38. 38. Logic Indicators (So Far ...)  Moving Average  Bollinger Band  Rate of Change
  39. 39. The Basic of Moving Average  Averaging certain periods  Price above MA = Bullish  Price below MA = Bearish  Short MA above Long MA = Bullish  Short MA below Long MA = Bearish
  40. 40. Fundamental Moving Average  MA20 ~ 1 Month ~ MoM  MA60 ~ 3 Months ~ Quarterly or QoQ  MA200 ~ 1 Year ~ Yearly or YoY  MA20 is a Monthly Average Price  MA60 is a Quarterly Average Price  MA200 is a Yearly Average Price  MA20 above MA60 =  Monthly Average Price is above Quarterly Average Price  MoM Rise > QoQ Rise  MoM Price > QoQ Price  MA60 above MA200 =  Quarterly Average Price is above Yearly Average Price  QoQ Rise > YoY Rise  QoQ Price > YoY Price
  41. 41. The Basic of Bollinger Band  Bollinger Band = MA20 and +/- 2x Standard Deviation of MA20  Middle Band (MA20)  Upper Band (+2x Standard Deviation of MA20)  Lower Band (-2x Standard Deviation of MA20)  +/- 2x Standard Deviation = ~95% Datas are Within The Band
  42. 42. Fundamental Bollinger Band Squeeze Squeeze Bulge Bulge
  43. 43. The Basic of Rate of Change  Rate of Change (RoC) is a percentage of change for certain period  RoC 14 = 20% means there is a 20% rise from 14 days ago to current price  RoC 20 = MoM Change  RoC 60 = QoQ Change  RoC 200 = YoY Change
  44. 44. Fundamental Rate of Change
  45. 45. Liquidity
  46. 46. Supply Demand Theory  When Demand > Supply = Price Rise  When Demand < Supply = Price Fall
  47. 47. Capital Market Demand Supply  Buyers or Bull-ishers  Increase in Funds or Investor  Monetary Expantion  Sellers or Bear-ishers  Initial Public Offering  Rights Issue
  48. 48. Basic Volume Analysis Price Volume Indication Explanation Rise Rise Bullish Volume Confirms Trend Rise Fall Bearish Volume Against Trend Fall Rise Bearish Volume Confirms Trend Fall Fall Bullish Volume Against Trend Compare today’s price and previous (mostly yesterday) prices to determine the Rise or Fall of Price and Volume
  49. 49. U.S Quantitative Easing 1st, 2nd and the 3rd
  50. 50. Why Market Capitalization Matter ?  Easy Come – Easy Go  Less Trail  Better Good Corporate Governance  Industry Leader  Better Future Prospect  Going (less) Concern  Current Biggest Market Cap in JCI :  HMSP Rp363.8tr  ASII Rp269.2tr  BBCA Rp236.8tr  UNVR Rp221.3tr  TLKM Rp218.7tr  BBRI Rp188tr  PGAS Rp139.4tr  SMGR Rp94.6tr  GGRM Rp94.5tr
  51. 51. Intermarket Analysis
  52. 52. Economic Cycle
  53. 53. Intermarket Analysis Stocks Market Bonds Market Money Market Commodities Market
  54. 54. JCI vs Gov. Bond 10Yr
  55. 55. JCI vs Inflation YoY
  56. 56. JCI vs USD-IDR
  57. 57. Any Questions ?
  58. 58. Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Working Experiences  Currently as Junior Investment Manager at Mandiri Healthcare  3 year as Technical Analyst at Trimegah Securities, AmCapital Indonesia and Anugerah Securindo Indah  1 year as Equity Sales at Danareksa Sekuritas Certifications  Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) from IFTA  Bronwen Wood Award 2011 from IFTA  Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) from SASB Indonesia  mmdandytra@gmail.com  (+62) 813 145 45 317 Contact Information

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