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Technical analysis ala fundamental analyst
 

Technical analysis ala fundamental analyst

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Technical Analysis methods that are frequently used by Fundamental Analyst

Technical Analysis methods that are frequently used by Fundamental Analyst

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    Technical analysis ala fundamental analyst Technical analysis ala fundamental analyst Presentation Transcript

    • Technical Analysis ala Fundamental Analyst MM Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
    • Technical Analysis (CFTe Version) John J. Murphy • “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” • The study of market action through the use of chats for the purpose of forecasting future price trends Martin J. Pring • “Technical Analysis Explained” • The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards • “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends” • The science of recording in graphic form the actual history of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
    • The Use of Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Trend Analysis Timing Analysis Price Analysis Investment Strategy Decision & Action
    • Technical Analysis Branches Technical Analysis Classic Modern (Indicators)
    • Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Basic Theory Dow Jones Theory Trend Analysis Supply Demand Line Analysis Support Resistance Trendline Channel Price Pattern Analysis Candlestick Bar Chart Gap Analysis Chart Pattern Analysis Reversal Pattern Continuation Pattern Hybrid Pattern Volume Analysis Spesific Theory Elliot Wave Gann Method Fibonacci Method Indicators
    • Indicators Indicators Momentum Stochastic Oscillator RSI Trend Following Moving Average MACD Volume On Balance Volume Volatility Bollinger Band Average Trading Range Sentiment Market Breadth Advance Decline Quantitative Methods Standard Deviation Linear Regression Line
    • Technical Analysis’ Premises  Price Discounts Everything  Price Moves in Trend  History Repeats Itself
    • Detail Definition of Technical Analysis
    • Technical Analysis John J. Murphy • “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” • The study of market action through the use of charts for the purpose of forecasting future price trends Martin J. Pring • “Technical Analysis Explained” • The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards • “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends” • The science of recording in graphic form the actual history of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
    • Objects  Actual History of Market Action  Recording in Graphic Form or Charts  Market Action are  Price  Volume  Open Interest (in Futures Market)
    • Objectives  Deducing From That The Probable Future Trend  Forecasting Future Price Trends or A Trend Reversal
    • Time  Relatively Early Stage  Until Weight of the Evidence The Trend Has Reversed
    • The Point Is ... Everything that “use” Historical Data to predict Future Movement is a Technical Analysis  FULL STOP !
    • Market Analyst Fundamental Analysis Economic Analysis Technical Analysis Bandarmologi (Tape Reading) STRATEGIST Experience
    • History Repeat Itself & Price Moves in Trend
    • Cycle and Seasonality Cycle • Kondratieff • Presidential • 40 Months Coal Newcastle Seasonality • Ramadhan • January Effect • Windows Dressing • Sell in May and Go Away
    • January Effect in JCI January Effect terjadi 15 kali sejak tahun 1991 (23 tahun) sehingga peluang terjadinya adalah 65.2%
    • Windows Dressing in JCI Sejak tahun 1990, IHSG pada akhir bulan Desember selalu naik dibanding akhir bulan November kecuali pada tahun 1992, 1994 dan 2000
    • MoM Inflation Inflasi MoM cenderung turun dari 1Q hingga 2Q lalu kemudian naik lagi hingga awal 3Q kemudian menjelang 4Q namun kembali naik di akhir 4Q
    • CPIN Near Ramadhan CPIN naik minimal 24% hingga 93% dua bulan menjelang Lebaran antara 2009 hingga 2012
    • Siklus 40 Bulan Batubara Newcaslte
    • Kondratieff Cycle and Presidential Cycle
    • (Fundamental) Trend Analysis
    • Uptrend and Downtrend HH HH HL HL HH : Higher High HL : Higher Low LH : Lower High LL : Lower Low LL LL LH LH UPTREND DOWNTREND
    • Standard Definition in “Opposite”  Technical Rebound  A temporary and relatively small rise during Downtrend  Technical Correction  A temporary and relatively small fall during Uptrend Technical Rebound Technical Correction
    • Trend Analysis Trend • Uptrend • Downtrend Strengthening Trend • Accelerating Uptrend • Accelerating Downtrend Against Trend • Deccelerating Uptrend • Deccelerating Downtrend • Technical Rebound • Technical Correction Trend Reversal • Bullish Reversal • Bearish Reversal
    • Rising YoY ; Rising QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
    • Rising YoY ; Falling QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
    • Falling YoY ; Rising QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
    • Falling YoY ; Falling QoQ 1Q12 4Q12 1Q13 YoY QoQ
    • Financial Statement – Trend Analysis  Trend  Uptrend  YoY Rise and QoQ Rise  Downtrend  YoY Fall and QoQ Fall  Strengthening Trend  Accelerating Uptrend  QoQ Rise > YoY Rise  Accelerating Downtrend  QoQ Fall > YoY Fall  Against Trend  Deccelerating Uptrend  QoQ Rise < YoY Rise  Deccelerating Downtrend  QoQ Fall < YoY Fall  Technical Correction  YoY Rise but QoQ Fall  Technical Rebound  YoY Fall but QoQ Rise
    • Chart Pattern Types Reversal Pattern Bullish Double / Triple Bottoms Inverted Head and Shoulders Bearish Double / Triple Tops Head and Shoulders Continuation Pattern Bullish Ascending Triangle Falling Wedges Bullish Flag Cup and Handle Bearish Descending Triangle Rising Wedges Bearish Flag Hybrid Pattern Symmetrical Triangle Rectangle Rounding Top Rounding Bottom
    • Double / Triple Tops The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement  Previous Condition :  Uptrend  Expected Movement  Downtrend Target Price  The Height between two or three Tops to Baseline, projected Downward Example
    • Head and Shoulders The Pattern Previous Condition & Expected Movement  Previous Condition :  Uptrend  Expected Movement  Downtrend Target Price  Height between Head and Neckline, projected Downward Example
    • Inflasi YoY – Inverted Head and Shoulders
    • Logic Technical Analysis’ Indicators
    • Technical Analysis’ Indicators Indicators Momentum Stochastic Oscillator RSI Trend Following Moving Average MACD Volume On Balance Volume Volatility Bollinger Band Average Trading Range Sentiment Market Breadth Advance Decline Quantitative Methods Standard Deviation Linear Regression Line
    • Logic Indicators (So Far ...)  Moving Average  Bollinger Band  Rate of Change
    • The Basic of Moving Average  Averaging certain periods  Price above MA = Bullish  Price below MA = Bearish  Short MA above Long MA = Bullish  Short MA below Long MA = Bearish
    • Fundamental Moving Average  MA20 ~ 1 Month ~ MoM  MA60 ~ 3 Months ~ Quarterly or QoQ  MA200 ~ 1 Year ~ Yearly or YoY  MA20 is a Monthly Average Price  MA60 is a Quarterly Average Price  MA200 is a Yearly Average Price  MA20 above MA60 =  Monthly Average Price is above Quarterly Average Price  MoM Rise > QoQ Rise  MoM Price > QoQ Price  MA60 above MA200 =  Quarterly Average Price is above Yearly Average Price  QoQ Rise > YoY Rise  QoQ Price > YoY Price
    • The Basic of Bollinger Band  Bollinger Band = MA20 and +/- 2x Standard Deviation of MA20  Middle Band (MA20)  Upper Band (+2x Standard Deviation of MA20)  Lower Band (-2x Standard Deviation of MA20)  +/- 2x Standard Deviation = ~95% Datas are Within The Band
    • Fundamental Bollinger Band Squeeze Squeeze Bulge Bulge
    • The Basic of Rate of Change  Rate of Change (RoC) is a percentage of change for certain period  RoC 14 = 20% means there is a 20% rise from 14 days ago to current price  RoC 20 = MoM Change  RoC 60 = QoQ Change  RoC 200 = YoY Change
    • Fundamental Rate of Change
    • Liquidity
    • Supply Demand Theory  When Demand > Supply = Price Rise  When Demand < Supply = Price Fall
    • Capital Market Demand Supply  Buyers or Bull-ishers  Increase in Funds or Investor  Monetary Expantion  Sellers or Bear-ishers  Initial Public Offering  Rights Issue
    • Basic Volume Analysis Price Volume Indication Explanation Rise Rise Bullish Volume Confirms Trend Rise Fall Bearish Volume Against Trend Fall Rise Bearish Volume Confirms Trend Fall Fall Bullish Volume Against Trend Compare today’s price and previous (mostly yesterday) prices to determine the Rise or Fall of Price and Volume
    • U.S Quantitative Easing 1st, 2nd and the 3rd
    • Why Market Capitalization Matter ?  Easy Come – Easy Go  Less Trail  Better Good Corporate Governance  Industry Leader  Better Future Prospect  Going (less) Concern  Current Biggest Market Cap in JCI :  HMSP Rp363.8tr  ASII Rp269.2tr  BBCA Rp236.8tr  UNVR Rp221.3tr  TLKM Rp218.7tr  BBRI Rp188tr  PGAS Rp139.4tr  SMGR Rp94.6tr  GGRM Rp94.5tr
    • Intermarket Analysis
    • Economic Cycle
    • Intermarket Analysis Stocks Market Bonds Market Money Market Commodities Market
    • JCI vs Gov. Bond 10Yr
    • JCI vs Inflation YoY
    • JCI vs USD-IDR
    • Any Questions ?
    • Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Working Experiences  Currently as Junior Investment Manager at Mandiri Healthcare  3 year as Technical Analyst at Trimegah Securities, AmCapital Indonesia and Anugerah Securindo Indah  1 year as Equity Sales at Danareksa Sekuritas Certifications  Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) from IFTA  Bronwen Wood Award 2011 from IFTA  Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) from SASB Indonesia  mmdandytra@gmail.com  (+62) 813 145 45 317 Contact Information