The retail world in 2012
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The retail world in 2012 Document Transcript

  • 1. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012 Retail real estate in 2012 10 Editors-in-Chief from the international press share their vision We asked MAPIC’s international media partners: what are the three most important PIC Exclusive to MA issues for the retail real estate industry in 2012? We thank all those who took part and hope that you will enjoy reading their answers as much as we did! Their articles give a perfect snapshot of major international trends for 2012 as well as the nuances of each local market. 36 37 38 39 40 Centros Comerciales Commercial Real Nuevo modelo de retail Estate Estate Gazette Eurobuild Immobilien Zeitung en un momento de Economy is the threat The retail market in New Cities, New Der Laden um die Ecke cambio but digital remains the Poland has not Formats, New Brands kann die Keimzelle eines challenge overheated * New retail model in a time of change Weltkonzerns sein Today’s corner shop * could be tomorrow’s global retail giant 41 42 43 45 46 Property Investor Property EU Sites Commerciaux Magaza Dergisi Europe Run on retail continues Retail Property La ville est très 2012’ de Perakende MAPIC 2011 flouts Analyst importante ; la périphérie Dünyasi Cannes echos of dramatic l’est aussi Wish you were here? * The retail world in 2012 euro, economic events Postcards from the * City centres are abyss extremely important; the suburbs are too * Please note that we have chosen to publish some articles in their original language. English translations are available at blog.mipimworld.com 35
  • 2. the retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by www.revistacentroscomerciales.com Marta Reñones es licenciada en Periodismo por la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Comenzó su carrera Nuevo modelo de retail English version here profesional hace ya más de una década como documentalista en en un momento de cambio varias empresas y redactora del diario El Mundo. Actualmente es El escenario económico que ha dejado tras de sí la crisis mundial está la redactora jefa de la afectando a la industria del retail desde el primer momento revista CENTROS COMERCIALES. En 2012, cuando ya todos queremos ver un financiación, que se ha ido agudizando poco de luz al final de túnel, será necesario con el paso del tiempo desde que se inició que el sector se adapte a la nueva situación la crisis. Ahora, cobran importancia las – menos financiación para acometer transacciones, quitándole el puesto a los proyectos nuevos, menor poder adquisitivo nuevos proyectos, que no terminan de de las familias debido al aumento del volver a despegar; asimismo las reformas y desempleo, nuevas formas de consumir, ampliaciones puesto que en la mayoría de etc. –. los casos, los suelos están amortizados. En Uno de los puntos a tener en cuenta es el España, todos los inversores que se modelo de gestión comercial. Los interesan por la adquisición de centros son responsables de los centros comerciales extranjeros, suelen ser empresas cotizadas deben variar su forma de gestionar las que no requieren financiación externa, partidas presupuestarias. Es necesario que sino que cuentan con fondos propios. ahorren costes (por ejemplo mediante la Debido a que las rentabilidades están implantación de sistemas de eficiencia bajando en países económicamente más energética o renegociando los contratos fuertes, España podría ser, en 2012, una con los proveedores de servicios) y que oportunidad para estos fondos que buscan dediquen un mayor esfuerzo al marketing. rentabilidades un poco más altas – Deben adaptarse a las nuevas técnicas de actualmente se encuentran en torno al comunicación (redes sociales, encuentros 6,5% –. profesionales, canales de televisión…). Y El nuevo consumidor o la nueva forma de por supuesto, deben prestar atención al consumir es otra de las preocupaciones de crecimiento de las ventas online, ver este los profesionales del retail. El cliente es nuevo canal como positivo e intentar cada vez más exigente y con la crisis ha reorientar su negocio para convertir cambiado sus hábitos de consumo. Es internet en un aliado. necesario que los comerciantes y los Otro tema de interés es el nuevo escenario gestores adapten su modelo a las en cuanto a la inversión en el mercado necesidades del consumidor. Deben inmobiliario del retail. El principal proporcionarle una experiencia de compra problema en toda Europa es la falta de especial si quieren fidelizarlo.36
  • 3. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by New Cities, New Formats, New Brands Russia is too large a market to be homogeneous. While large cities are saturated with retail space and anticipate the entry of new European retail formats, small regional cities need at least one completed quality project The Russian retail real estate market keeps analysts believe, will be interesting not growing mainly due to regional expansion. only for Moscow and Saint Petersburg, The most important trend mentioned by but for other developed markets too. For nearly all developers today is keener example, Yekaterinburg with its 26 CRE magazine, interest in the cities with half a million shopping centers having the aggregated published in Russian plus population. Until recently experts built space of 1,013,000 sq m is in need of and English twice a considered only a limited circle of million- extensive, rather than intensive month,  is the leading plus cities. Apart from Moscow and Saint development. Saturation with retail space publication on Petersburg, this list included Yekaterinburg, is a formidable sign for developers. As Rafael commercial real estate Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod... Now reported by London Consulting & Khaybrakhmanov in Russia. The Editor in Chief developers are ready to enter even small Management Company, the average magazine covers all cities located far from the capital city. The recoupment time for retail properties in segments of the city of Surgut (about 309,000 residents) in the Urals capital is in the range of 5-9 market. Circulation: the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area is years and depends on their specific 20,000 copies. one of the most vivid examples. Two characteristics – above all, on their Commercial Real shopping and entertainment centers are location and concept. Yekaterinburg- about to open their doors here almost at based players point out that in some cases Estate magazine is a one time – 154,000 sq m and 100,000 sq m, the payoff time may reach 12 years and part of the Impress respectively. Thanks to these two projects, more because of oversaturation with retail Media, Marketing such retail chains as O’Key, M.video, space. On the other hand, the city with the Publishing House. Cinemapark, Sportmaster, Detskiy Mir population of 1.3 million cannot but and MediaMarkt will make their debut on arrest the attention of developers. New www.impressmedia.ru the local market. This is rather an retail formats will open new prospects exception from the general rule, to be sure, before the developers. www.cre.ru since consultants, talking about the most promising regional cities, mention And lastly, new brands: shopping centers via the Internet, which is similar to the Novosibirsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, feel an acute need for unique and Auchan Drive project in France. The Chelyabinsk and Rostov-on-Don, in the unmatched brands that have never been inauguration of Auchanauto is scheduled first place – that is the cities with more represented on the Russian market. At the for next year. IKEA contemplates the than one million population. Meanwhile present time each SC features a more or opening of stand-alone stores (for now the deliberate and announced trend less standard pool of tenants. But already IKEA has accommodated its stores only towards development of a huge market of this year has seen the entry of new players. in MEGA malls in Russia) and has started the cities with half a million population is Thus early in September, the first store of negotiations with landlords. The German already an important step forward for the American brand “Banana Republic”, Metro Group has decided to apply its Russia where the basic development trading in clothes and accessories, opened Polish experience to Russia and to open a pattern follows the path from the national its doors in Moscow. Victoria’s Secret chain of “corner” shops with rentable capital to regional centers and only then comfortably lodged at the Mega Teply space varying between 40 and 100 sq  m to smaller cities and towns. Stan mall. However many retail chains do under a new brand unrelated to Metro, not have the guts to launch regional using the franchising system, and so on. The second trend that will come to the expansion. It’s difficult to forecast the activity of the fore on the market in the coming year is retail segment in Russia in the year 2012. the emergence of new retail formats, Another tendency at the juncture of the To date it is the retail segment of commercial outlet centers in particular. For now two above-mentioned trends will definitely real estate market that has been the most Russia does not have a single facility in gather momentum in 2012: we mean that attractive in the regions for investors, as it this format. The inauguration of the first retail operators are keen on the accounted for more than 90% of all outlet centers – Fashion House Moscow development of new formats. In particular transactions completed in H1 of 2011. and Outlet Village Belaya Dacha – has Auchan announced its readiness to open Besides Saint Petersburg, Kaluga, Irkutsk, been announced in Moscow for late 2011 the first storage-type store in Moscow that Izhevsk, Kaliningrad and Volgograd have – early 2012. Meanwhile new formats, the operates by the principle of preordering also been popular with investors. 37
  • 4. the retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by Estates Gazette is the UK’s leading commercial property title, covering the retail, Damian Wild office, industrial and Editor residential sectors in print and online. To view all we offer go to www.estatesgazette.com www.estatesgazette.com Economy is the threat but Topics It’s the economy, stupid digital remains the challenge Time to embrace digital High street renaissance? The challenges to the retail sector will come thick and fast in 2012. Consumers may be embracing the web, but are they ready to fall back in love with the high street? It may be a decade since the maxim kept UK, was almost certainly unprecedented.  25bp to 1.25% suggests acknowledgement the Clinton campaign bus on the road, Meanwhile it’s been an awful year for high that the Eurozone’s debt crisis is impacting but today “it’s the economy, stupid” is a streets in the UK. Vacancy rates in some the wider economy. Does the bank have the principle that developers, investors, town centres are approaching 30% while courage to take bolder steps to prevent the landlords and retailers themselves neglect almost two-thirds of towns have seen shop crisis deepening? Many have their doubts. at their peril. vacancy levels increase by more than 10% And then there’s the impact of digital, the Depending on your point of view the over the past three years. single biggest medium-term influence. outlook for the year ahead varies from As well as the tough trading conditions, Groupon and its ilk continue to march troublesome to unimaginably dreadful. this summer’s riots affected city centre while Amazon has launched its customer Twelve months ago few would have premises in London and beyond. A collection lockers in the UK. Sited at Land countenanced the collapse of the euro or a government review, led by retail guru Securities’ One New Change in the City of slowdown in emerging economies of a Mary Portas, is pending. Consumers say London, it’s a further bridging of the sharpness to match the contraction in the they want the high street to survive. But divide between the virtual and the physical. west. But today neither feels impossible. with the British Council of Shopping Their presence in Europe is only weeks Surveys indicate the UK economy is likely Centres predicting that more than one in old but already some asset managers to contract in Q4. Meanwhile the 10 UK stores could remain vacant in the complain that they are running shopping withdrawal this month of bellweather long term, will they vote with their wallets? centres not post offices. In this climate retailer John Lewis from the £700m Look wider and the European Central though they will take rental income where Tithebarn shopping scheme in Preston, Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by they can find it.38
  • 5. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by The Galeria Wilanów shopping centre in Warsaw is a joint project of Polnord and GTC Eurobuild CEE is a B2B magazine published in two languages (Polish and English) and is one of Radosław Górecki the most important Deputy Editor monthlies devoted to the topics of real estate, investment and architecture in Central and Eastern Europe. www.eurobuildcee.com The retail market in Topics The retail market in Poland Poland has not overheated is unsaturated There are now 360 shopping centres in Poland Next year looks to be an extremely promising one for the shopping Investors have turned their centre market: more spectacular projects are to be launched while the attention to smaller towns retail market in smaller towns will thrive The retail sector in Poland has a bright construction of a shopping centre in However, the retail sector does not just future ahead of it. Experts are stressing Warsaw’s Białołeka district (60,000 sq m). consist of huge projects alone. More and that this sector of the property market is However, there are many more new more investors are showing an interest in still unsaturated, both in terms of the projects to come. Shopping centres are smaller towns. You could even go as far as number of projects and the presence of soon to be opened in Kraków, Torun, to say that 2012 will be the year of international retail chains. According Kalisz and Gorzów Wielkopolski. ‘convenience stores’, which have areas not Colliers International’s data, there are 360 Neinver’s spectacular new project in exceeding 5,000 sq m. One such example modern shopping centres currently Katowice is also currently under is the newly-born ‘Czerwona Torebka’ operating in Poland with a combined area construction. In spite of the fact that banks [Red Bag] concept – the founders of the of more than 8.38 mln sqm. Another still regard the financing of new projects Eurocash, Biedronka and Zabka chains 215,000 sq m is to be opened within the with a large degree of caution (you have to have announced that they will build as next six months. And this is not all. The have at least 30 pct of your own many as 1,950 Czerwona Torebka centres biggest market players are preparing more contribution and preliminary contracts across Poland over the next ten years. projects. These include Globe Trade signed for at least 50–60 pct of the leasable To sum up, 2012 looks to be an outstanding Centre, which has announced the area in order to qualify for finance), there year for the retail sector. Substantial development of Galeria Wilanów, a huge is lots of cash flowing in from investment demand from investment funds and the project (76,000 sq m) to be built in funds. At the moment three or four funds launches of new, major projects are raising Wilanów, one of the most thriving districts are interested in buying every shopping hopes that Poland will stand out proudly of Warsaw. GTC will also be starting the centre that comes onto the market. on the European real estate market map. 39
  • 6. the retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by Der Laden um die Ecke English version here kann die Keimzelle eines Weltkonzerns sein Alle paar Wochen eröffnet eine internationale Filialkette ihren ersten Laden in Die Immobilien Deutschland. Zeitung mit ihrem Werden Primark, Online-Auftritt www. Vapiano oder TK iz.de zählt zu den Maxx den führenden deutschen deutschen Konsum Christoph V. Fachzeitschriften für verändern wie es Schwanenflug Redakteur die Immobilienwirts- Ikea, H&M und Immobilien Zeitung chaft. Sie gehört zur McDonald’s getan Verlagsgruppe haben? Deutscher Fachverlag, Frankfurt.  www.iz.de Topics Wer wird der nächste H&M? Wer wird der nächste Ikea? Wer wird der nächste McDonald’s? Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s haben den und McDonald’s spielen? Diese Frage Möbeldesigner kopierte. McDonald’s Konsum in Deutschland revolutioniert. stellen sich auch Vermieter, vor allem hat sich durchgesetzt, obwohl viele Ikea hat die deutsche Eiche endgültig aus solche, die nicht einen, sondern 50, 100 Eltern ihren Kindern verboten haben, den deutschen Wohnzimmern vertrieben. oder gar 500 Läden zu vermieten haben. dort essen zu gehen. H&M liefert den jungen Menschen im Primark wird immer wieder genannt, weil Land ihre Alltagsmode, und McDonald’s die irische Firma Textilien verkauft wie Auch Vapiano, der expansivste deutsche ist das einzige Lokal, in dem der Milliardär Aldi Lebensmittel. TK Maxx erweitert System-Gastronom, hat einmal klein Seit’ an Seit’ mit dem Hartz-IV-Empfänger sein Filialnetz beharrlich. Woolworth, angefangen. Als das Bonner Unternehmen isst. Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s sind so nebenbei bemerkt, ist auch auf dem besten vor acht, neun Jahren seine ersten Lokale sehr Teil der deutschen Alltagskultur Weg, wieder das Kaufhaus von nebenan eröffnete, mussten die Vermieter lange geworden, dass man ganz vergessen hat, zu werden, das es jahrzehntelang war. überredet werden. Pizza und Pasta schien dass sie ursprünglich gar nicht aus es in Deutschland doch schon genug zu Deutschland kommen. Sie sind erfolgreich, Hennes & Mauritz, wie es in seiner geben. Inzwischen ist Vapiano auf vier weil sie einen Markt kreiert haben, den es Frühzeit in Deutschland noch genannt Kontinenten vertreten. Vor einiger Zeit vorher nicht gab. Irgendwann haben aber wurde, hat am Anfang ziemlich hat sich die Milliardärsfamilie Herz auch sie ihren ersten Laden bzw. ihr erstes ausgeflippte Sachen verkauft. Hätte 1980 (Tchibo) beteiligt. Was lernen wir Lokal hierzulande eröffnet. (erster Laden in Hamburg) jemand daraus? Niemand kann vorher genau gedacht, dass die Schweden einmal in wissen, welches Potenzial in einem Welcher Einzelhändler, der in letzter Zeit der Fußgängerzone von Pirmasens Konzept steckt. Der kleine Laden um die nach Deutschland gekommen ist, könnte vertreten sein würden? Ikea wurde Ecke kann die Keimzelle eines eine ähnlich große Rolle wie Ikea, H&M abgetan, weil es ja angeblich nur andere Weltkonzerns sein.40
  • 7. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by 2012’de Perakende Dünyası English version here Okan Aras www.pebev.com www.magazadergisi.com - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 41
  • 8. the retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by MAPIC 2011 promises opportunities beyond the Euro crisis MAPIC 2011 takes place in Cannes in the very same Palais des Congrès that just a few weeks ago resounded with some of the most dramatic political events seen in Europe in recent years: the G20 Summit deliberating on a Greek drama. The venue thus sets the tenor for European experience into a social and entertainment retail for, despite its general good health, event for the family. Footfall, as always, the sector is far from immune to external remains the holy grail. economic events. Still, as the themes at MAPIC 2011 show, the industry is on a One keen observer of the European retail PIE Mission Statement structural path of modernisation, landscape is Stephan Wundrak, director The mission of Property refurbishment and re-thinking not entirely of European property research at Investor Europe is to determined by cycles, and is a hive of Henderson Global Investors. The group’s bring transparency to activity. Panelists at PIE’s recent Russia Warburg Henderson joint venture in Allan Saunderson mainland Europe real Property Breakfast, for instance, pointed to summer paid €61m for the Tuna Park mall estate for US & global the huge potential of that nation’s emerging in the Swedish city of Eskilstuna for its investment retail. The low 13% income tax rate and Henderson European Core Property Fund professionals. PIE is buoyant economic base have generated a No. 1. Wundrak says that even if investors uniquely published in rich and growing middle class, around should be more careful amid the euro- English from Frankfurt, 10m-strong, with rapidly rising disposable related financial market swings, he is with editors around income and consumption needs. starting to advise clients to take a little more risk in retail and move out of core Europe. PIE reaches MAPIC 2011 Country Of Honour is Italy, assets, which have become very expensive. over 70,000 institutional where a flurry of retail activity is bringing professionals via PIE new greenfield and downtown retail “Everyone likes the Nordics and Germany Dailies, and in print development and a fertile base for but there is a premium to be paid for these monthly to 4,000-5,000 investment. Australia’s Westfield is markets,” Wundrak told PIE last month. targeted subscribers and planning a €1bn regional mall in Milan Henderson has always been a retail others. and has agreed to acquire a 50% interest in specialist. After Germany, it is mainly a 60 ha site near Milan’s Linate airport in active in the UK but its fund allocation a joint venture with Gruppo Stilo. Swedish there is full. “There is a strong interest in furniture giant IKEA is earmarking €1bn Sweden but we have only managed to close www.pie-mag.com for new superstores; and that is not even to Tuna Park near Stockholm due to quite mention Hines Italia’s Porta Nuova project strong competition,” he says. “We would in Milan, nearing completion, or the Santa like to spend a lot of money in France but Giulia project coveted by a consortium we can’t find the product at the right price. that includes Chinese interests. Retail is hard to come by and office is extremely expensive.” In Germany, One theme at MAPIC 2011 is multi- Henderson is buying retail warehouses channelling - retailing strategies that where net yields are around 6.5% and combine internet marketing with physical leverage can be put on at 50%. The huge store sales, whether malls or high streets. advantage for Henderson clients in the Another topic will be re-generation: how nation, mainly insurance companes and to revitalise existing premises, particularly pension funds, is the massive yield pickup malls, bringing them into line with modern over German Bund sovereign bonds, requirements and establishing customer currently returning under 2% - too low to enticements that turn the shopping service their long-term liabilities.42
  • 9. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by Run on retail continues European retail property has remained institutional heavyweights including resilient since the collapse of Lehman sovereign wealth funds are also entering Brothers, but the eurozone crisis will the arena and global players from outside continue to cast its shadow over the sector Europe are getting into the act as well. At in 2012 and beyond. As fears of a break- end-October, US pension fund TIAA- up and a double-dip recession widen, retail CREF acquired the Perlacher landlords are growing ever more concerned Einkaufsparadies (PEP) shopping centre about what this will mean for their assets. in Munich for a record low yield of sub With anaemic GDP growth a best-case 5%. In France, the National Pension scenario in view of the severe austerity Service of South Korea recently bought a measures being implemented across further 24% interest in O’Parinor shopping Europe, consumer spending will inevitably centre near Paris from UK REIT slow and retail sales will be hit. Against Hammerson, taking its interest in the this bleak economic backdrop, winds of centre to 75%. As the spending spree on change are also sweeping through the prime retail continues, a shortage of sector. In the latest instalment of its Retail product looms and the gap with secondary 2020 study entitled ‘The New Retail assets is set to widen further. Judi Seebus is Editor Rulebook: 5 Key Lessons from the Future’, in chief of PropertyEU, Jones Lang LaSalle predicts that by 2020, Germany has been a point of gravity for the pan-European more than 50% of all non-food retail retail investors of all types and the country portal for real estate transactions will be digitally influenced in outpaced the UK for the first time in the professionals. mature markets. third quarter of this year. Given the size Stay in touch with the and depth of the market, it will likely While the big listed investors and institutional remain a key target in the coming year as dealmakers in Europe players continue to target core properties in well. Another development that is likely to via our daily digital prime locations, dominance in big catchment gain momentum is the growth of new newsletter and areas alone is not enough to win over alliances between equity players and monthly magazine. consumers. Consumer spending patterns specialist operators. Indeed, a shift is are becoming less predictable and visible among some of the bigger global consumer profiles more complex in our institutional players in their bid to gain www.propertyeu.info highly competitive global market. A recent more control over investment decisions. report by CBRE revealed that men are replacing women as shoppers of the future. While pension funds have long been in the ‘Across Europe, two in five people (40%) market through blind pool funds and now shop online – and it’s men not women specialist investment vehicles, increasingly that are driving the charge,’ the adviser they are deploying capital directly or co- said. As ecommerce continues to penetrate investing through joint ventures with all levels of society and all generations, the specialist operating partners. The number of e-drives and click-and-collect Canadians have been particularly active depots will expand further. on this front, with Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) leading the Over the past decade, shopping centres way with its alliance with Dutch pension have delivered average total returns of just fund APG and Westfield at Stratford City under 10% a year and retail performance mall in East London. In May, CPPIB has also been less volatile than other made its first step in mainland Europe sectors. But in the current environment, a with the purchase of a 50% stake in the major driver behind the wall of equity massive Centro Oberhausen shopping targeting the European retail sector is no centre in Germany and more recently longer capital growth but capital HOOPP, the manager of healthcare Topics preservation. Against a background of workers’ retirement plans in Ontario, nervous equity markets and low-yielding acquired two malls in the Czech Republic Winds of change sweep bonds, there has been a run on prime retail in partnership with Meyer Bergman. In through the sector property and the competition continues to the coming year, rich Gulf states and grow. Established players such as wealth funds from Asia and Australia are Capital preservation Henderson and ING REIM*, the big likely to start knocking on European doors heads the wish list specialist REITs such as Unibail-Rodamco as well. Specialists & investors and Corio and the German open-ended band together funds have been around for some time. But * Now part of CBRE Investors 43
  • 10. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by Recession, what recession? Westfield and Forever 21 signal direction for 2012 For exclusive and in-depth analysis of the retail and real estate markets in Europe, Retail Property Mark Faithfull Analyst provides Editor concise and insightful information on the crucial trends across the continent. Our goal is to explain, not just report, the big news. www.retailpropertyanalyst.com Wish you were here? Topics Lack of liquidity maintains Postcards from the abyss logjam Quick-fix asset management to dominate MAPIC approaches with crippling macro-economic uncertainty across Unpredictable consumers Europe threatening to come to a head. But Mark Faithfull asks whether set the agenda the doomsayers might just be missing the point Investment caution, bank reluctance to crisis, so the banks and institutional really be concerning investors is consumer right-price distressed property and investors - holding a whole lot of retail behaviour and just how damned annoying nervous European retailers, set against a stock they don’t want - have refused to put it is. Those who remained cautious during background of the eurozone crisis. Ouch! on a fire sale. The result, frustratingly for the boom years (like the French and But, you know, 2012 might not be so bad the equity houses bursting with Germans) will not spend their way out of after all. institutional money to allocate, has been recession and previous big spenders (the Of course that depends on who and where that the predicted slump in capital values UK, Ireland, the southern Mediterranean) you are. If you own or run a small store on has not materialised. It probably won’t in are feeling the pinch. Retailers who cannot a provincial high street in Western Europe, 2012 either, although a gradual release of combine value, accessibility and cache especially the UK or Ireland, you may stock would give the market some hugely will suffer long and hard in 2012 and so want to turn away now. If you own or needed liquidity. will those centres which rely upon them. lease within a big shiny shopping centre in Postcard 2: That means the smart money And what consumers do spend is a prime location in one of Europe’s will be spent on quick fixes in 2012, increasingly not in-store. principal cities, then things really aren’t so improving existing centres to polish up Out here at the abyss there are certainly bad. But the issue that will surely dominate capital values and – a mantra for the next plenty of doomsday scenarios to pick 2012, other than ongoing polarisation, is 12 months – income generation. But this from. But for those prepared to embrace who faces up to where we are: the abyss. will be a year for cost-effective the change and to build a new business Postcard one: Just as Europe’s politicians optimisation, not grand redesigns. model, 2012 might not be the holiday have failed to grapple with the eurozone Postcard 3: However, the issue that should from hell after all. 45
  • 11. mapicthe retail world in 2012The most important topics to look at in 2012, by Family Village Alain Boutigny est directeur de “La Correspondance de L’Enseigne” (newsletter hebdomadaire s’adressant aux enseignes, promoteurs et investisseurs) et de “Sites commerciaux” (mensuel à l’attention des commerçants, opérateurs de centres commerciaux et conseils immobiliers) www.sites-commerciaux.com La ville est très importante ; English version here la périphérie l’est aussi Thèmes La ville est encensée Le discours sur la reconquête du centre-ville dont les politiques nous La périphérie est décriée rebattent les oreilles ne doit pas cacher le besoin d’équipements de Le commerce aime les commerce dont la périphérie a évidemment besoin deux Les tartes à la crème ont ceci de formidable “assez”, “pas vraiment” ou “pas du tout” Et voilà que la foule des banlieues, privée que l’on peut en manger dans tous les votre centre-ville ?” leur a demandé Tns. de ses centres commerciaux et de ses retail établissements où la réflexion fait défaut. Eh bien, croyez-le ou non : 71 % répondent parks, viendrait faire ses emplettes intra- Prenez par exemple le retour au centre-ville “pas vraiment” (13 %), “pas du tout” (4 %) muros, additionnerait la foule du travail à dont les politiques nous rebattent les oreilles. ou “assez” (54  % – autrement dit “m... celle des promeneurs, un peu comme un Le projet de loi Ollier (qui a du plomb dans ouais”). Seuls 27 % affirment “beaucoup”. dimanche en semaine. On aura beau l’aile) ne parle que de cela : des centralités Ce n’est pas grand-chose, vous l’avouerez... construire des immeubles sur les urbaines, de cette mauvaise herbe qu’est la De là, on tire néanmoins des plans sur la immeubles, ajouter des mètres carrés de périphérie et de cet amour infini des comète. On dit que les zones suburbaines vente aux mètres carrés de vente et populations pour le cœur de nos cités. sont sans lendemain, que les commerces organiser les transports les plus efficaces Billevesées ! Les Français n’aiment pas qui s’y trouvent n’ont rien à y faire et que possible, on ne poussera pas bien loin les leur centre-ville tant que ça. Ils l’affirment le prix de l’essence leur aura bientôt donné murs de la ville : un concept historique et du reste sans ambages, faisant mentir les le coup de grâce. Inversement, les jolis affectif, certes, mais parfaitement limité. élites qui se permettent de parler pour cœurs de villes parleraient d’amour avec Et que l’automobile, l’avion, l’autoroute eux. Dans un sondage paru cette année, leurs ruelles inaccessibles, leurs parkings et le Tgv ont enterré depuis longtemps. cette “bof attitude” crève les yeux. insuffisants et leur capacité d’accueil Elle restera précieuse, bien sûr  : tout “Diriez-vous que vous aimez “beaucoup”, impossible à augmenter. autant que les grottes de Lascaux.46