MAPIC Keynote Wrap-Up 2012, by James Brown, JLL

1,038 views
903 views

Published on

James Brown from Jones Lang LaSalle, returns to MAPIC 2012 to give the famou Wrap-Up Keynote. Find key industry trends, figures and forecasts.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,038
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
109
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
16
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

MAPIC Keynote Wrap-Up 2012, by James Brown, JLL

  1. 1. Wrap up - Mapic 2012Adapting for Changeand Positioning for GrowthJames BrownHead of EMEA Retail Research & Consultingjames.brown@eu.jll.com
  2. 2. Looking BackWhat has happened since Mapic 2011? Mapic 2011 2
  3. 3. European Economic Recovery ScenariosUncertainty and volatility remain... Scenario 1: 10% Upside scenario: strong bounce back Scenario 2: 60% Central scenario: ‘muddle’ through Scenario 3: 30% Downside scenario: disorderly breakdown of Eurozone 4
  4. 4. Consumer and Retail Trade ConfidenceMild deterioration in consumer and trade confidence since last year… 4
  5. 5. Consumer Confidence Index Q3 2012Consumer confidence below LT trend across Europe (excl. Turkey & Russia)…Long-Term Country Average = 100 Confidence above Long-Term Country Average Confidence below Long-Term Country Average Country confidence October 2011Source: European Commission (November 2012) 5
  6. 6. Retail Sales Growth Forecast 2012 - 2014Multi speed forecast retail sales growth…Source: Oxford Economics (October 2012); IHS Global Insight for Croatia and Ukraine (October 2012) 8
  7. 7. The Rise and Rise of OnlineThe move to multi-channel is accelerating… Internet retail spend per capita 2010 (£)Source: Euromonitor 9
  8. 8. The Impact of Multi-Channel RetailGlobal trends and initiatives are emerging, FAST… Tesco shopping wall, Korea Source: Google 10
  9. 9. The Retailer 11
  10. 10. Retail Requirements are ChangingInternational opportunities for growth; increased competition… Jones Lang LaSalle - Global 660 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Global 660, ESRI 12
  11. 11. Destination Europe: Leading CitiesLondon remains ‘springboard’ to Europe for non-European retailers… Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, ‘Destination Europe 2013’ 13
  12. 12. Destination Europe: Core and Growth CitiesGrowth, diversification; international borders no longer a barrier… Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, ‘Destination Europe 2013’ 14
  13. 13. Retailer Country of OriginItaly leads exporter league, the US is catching up fast and China emerges… Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, ‘Destination Europe 2013’ 15
  14. 14. The Rise and Rise of LuxuryThriving through turbulence…• Continued growth anticipated• Specific requirements• Constrained supply of units• Driving prime, luxury HS rents• Favouring larger tourist markets 17
  15. 15. Portfolio Optimisation for Legacy Retailers Leases events area trigger for change... Cumulative number of lease expiries (%)Lease expiries per year (%) Number of lease expiries per year Cumulative number of lease expiries Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (April 2012) Note: Analysis based on a sample of circa 15,000 European Shopping Centre lease contracts. Lease expiry profile varies by country and by retail sub-sector. 1
  16. 16. The Owner & Developer 18
  17. 17. Shopping Centre Pipeline H2 2012-2013Tired stock in WE ripe for redevelopment, Asset Management… 45% of new stock across Europe to be opened in Russia and Turkey combined…Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (October 2012) Note: Includes schemes >5,000m² GLA only; excludes Retail Warehousing and Factory Outlet Centre. Pipeline figures should be treated with caution. 19
  18. 18. Differentiation to SucceedKey ingredients to succeed in a multi-channel World… Embrace digital Accessibility Listen & communicate Cinema Security Culture Retail Catering Community engagement Education Service Pop-up Environment Convenience Click & collect Know the customer 19
  19. 19. NEW Opportunities: Travel HubsEurope’s top 100 airports have a combined 1.34 bn ‘visitors’ annually…. 21
  20. 20. The Investor 22
  21. 21. European Retail Investment Volumes Q1-Q3 2012€11.7bn invested in Q1-Q3 2012, down 50% y-o-y due to lack of large deals… €178Retail Transaction €739Volumes Q1-Q3 2012in million € €580 €32 4,000 or over €844 2,000 to 4,000 €6 €43 1000 to 2,000 €3,595 500 to 1000 €436 200 to 500 €460 €405 €2,890 100 - 200 0 - 100 €101 €52 No Transactions €758 €121 €12 €29 €74 €118 €220Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (October 2012) Note: This review considers all investment sales of shopping centres, retail warehouses, factory outlet centres and supermarkets in Europe. The analysis excludes the high street and any investment deal less than $ 5 million in value. 23
  22. 22. European Retail Investment Drivers Q1-Q3 2012Liquidity and fundamentals continue to attract majority of retail investment… p.a. Average Europe € 1,584 mn – 14% € 8,961 mn – 77% Average EU (27 Countries) € 130 mn - 1% € 964 mn – 8%Source: Oxford Economics (October 2012), Jones Lang LaSalle (October 2012) Note: Average Retail Sales per Capita based on countries shown on graph. % Share investment volumes based on countries shown on graph. 24
  23. 23. Global Retail InvestmentContinued globalisation and increased competition... 25
  24. 24. Global Retail InvestmentRedefining retail investment markets... 25
  25. 25. European Retail InvestmentRedefining retail investment…• Absence of debt (for the majority) in the near term• Global equity appetite for Retail investment to continue• Partnering to continue – ‘Equity and Expertise’• EMEA leads investment market but Asia is catching up• Global flows to influence prime pricing for best retail schemes• Spread between prime and secondary pricing likely to stay 25
  26. 26. Summary 26
  27. 27. 10 Takeaways2013 – Still adapting and positioning for growth…• Uncertainty to remain; economic and retail sales growth subdued• Pockets of strong growth exist across Europe• Targeted retail expansion to continue• Do NOT underestimate the impact of digital• Retailer optimisation and consolidation to continue• Re-development becomes the new development in WE• New development continues in Turkey and Russia in particular• Retail investment market to remain focused on ‘best’• Lack of debt fuelling 2 tier market - prime vs. secondary• Internationalisation of investment and partnering to continue 27
  28. 28. Adapting for Changeand Positioning for GrowthThank you.James BrownHead of EMEA Retail Research & Consultingjames.brown@eu.jll.com

×