Australian Federal Election 2013 - Senate preference flows for Victoria

619 views

Published on

In this year's Australian Federal Election those that live in Victoria will have the choice of 38 political parties and 7 independents to vote for in the senate.

In this presentation we look at all the parties who've lodged a Group Preference ticket to see how the parties are aligned based on preferences.

We also crunched the numbers to find out which candidates could take the 6 available senate seats. Due to preference flows any number of strange outcomes are possible. We've listed a number of what we believe are the most likely outcomes.

Thanks goes to http://www.virginvoters.com.au/ for providing some of the party logos.

Published in: News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
619
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
74
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Australian Federal Election 2013 - Senate preference flows for Victoria

  1. 1. FEDERAL ELECTION 2013 Victorian Senate Voting Guide
  2. 2. POLITICAL PARTIES  The 2013 Election will feature 38 Political Parties and 7 independents  Only 16 of the 38 parties competed in the previous 2010 Federal Election  10 of the 38 parties have been registered for 3 months or less
  3. 3. PARTY CLASSIFICATIONS  Each political party is classified based on how they preference the other parties  All of the parties allocated one of the five categories:  Right Wing  Religious Right  Left Wing  Single Issue Parties  Fringe Parties
  4. 4. PARTY CLASSIFICATIONS (CONT.)  The following information is presented for each party: Party Logo First major party preference Party Name Classification
  5. 5. RELIGIOUS RIGHT Rise Up Australia Party Religious Right Family First Religious Right Australian Christians Religious Right DLP Democratic Labour Religious Right Australian Independents Confused Religious Right
  6. 6. RIGHT WING PARTIES Liberal/Nationals Moderate Right Wing Katter's Australian Party Right Wing Protectionist Country Alliance Rural Right Palmer United Party Left Leaning Right Wing Building Australia Party Micro Party/Right Australian Voice Party Micro Party/Right
  7. 7. LEFT WING PARTIES The Wikileaks Party Left Wing Australian Labor Party Moderate Left Senator Online Micro Party/Left Pirate Party Micro Party/Left Secular Party of Australia Micro Party/Left Sex Party Left Wing Australian Democrats Moderate Left The Greens Left Wing
  8. 8. SINGLE ISSUE PARTIES Bullet Train For Australia Single issue party Bank Reform Party Single issue party No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics Single issue/Religious Right Drug Law Reform Single issue party Animal Justice Party Single issue party Stop CSG Single issue party Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party Single Issue/Right Shooters and Fishers Single Issue/Right
  9. 9. SINGLE ISSUE PARTIES (CONT.) Stable Population Party Single Issue Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party Single issue party Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party Single issue party
  10. 10. FRINGE PARTIES Socialist Equality Party Far Left Citizens Electoral Council Far Right
  11. 11. TOP 10 HIGHEST PREFERENCED PARTIES  1st Bullet Train For Australia  2nd Bank Reform Party  3rd Senator Online  4th Building Australia  5th Australian Independents  6th Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party  7th Stop CSG  8th Australian Democrats  9th Australian Voice Party  10th Animal Justice
  12. 12. BOTTOM 10 LOWEST PREFERENCED PARTIES  32nd One Nation  33rd Rise Up Australia Party  34th Palmer United Party  35th Australian Labor Party  36th Stop the Greens  37th Liberal/Nationals  38th The Greens  39th Smoker's Rights  40th Socialist Equality Party  41st Citizens Electoral Council
  13. 13. MOST LIKELY VICTORIAN SENATE CANDIDATES  Based on polling and previous election results the six available seats in the Senate will be filled by:  Liberal Party x2  Labor Party x2  Greens x1  Unknown
  14. 14. MOST LIKELY VICTORIAN SENATE CANDIDATES (CONT.)  The final 6th seat will be chosen based on preferences  Thanks to Antony Green’s senate calculator and some guesstimation the following parties are likely to win the final seat:  Liberals (35% chance)  Family First (25% chance)  The Wikileaks Party (10% chance)  Bullet Train for Australia (10% chance)  DLP Democratic Labour (10% chance)  All other minor party (10% chance)
  15. 15. GUESS THE 6 CANDIDATES BASED ON THIS ESTIMATED ALLOCATION OF VOTES Party Total Votes % Votes Liberal / The Nationals 1,099,386 32.87% Australian Labor Party 967,233 28.92% The Greens 452,669 13.54% The Wikileaks Party 176,651 5.28% Katter's Australian Party 148,213 4.43% Palmer United Party 97,359 2.91% DLP Democratic Labour 67,917 2.03% Sex Party 50,519 1.51% Family First 49,850 1.49% Shooters and Fishers 37,471 1.12% Australian Christians 34,794 1.04% Rise Up Australia Party 28,772 0.86% Bank Reform Party 24,757 0.74% Group AJ 20,074 0.60% Group T 15,390 0.46% Australian Democrats 10,706 0.32% Bullet Train For Australia 8,698 0.26% Socialist Equality Party 8,028 0.24%
  16. 16. GUESS THE 6 CANDIDATES BASED ON THIS ESTIMATED ALLOCATION OF VOTES (CONT.) Party Total Votes % Votes Liberal / The Nationals 1,099,386 32.87% Australian Labor Party 967,233 28.92% The Greens 452,669 13.54% The Wikileaks Party 176,651 5.28% Katter's Australian Party 148,213 4.43% Palmer United Party 97,359 2.91% DLP Democratic Labour 67,917 2.03% Sex Party 50,519 1.51% Family First 49,850 1.49% Shooters and Fishers 37,471 1.12% Australian Christians 34,794 1.04% Rise Up Australia Party 28,772 0.86% Bank Reform Party 24,757 0.74% Group AJ 20,074 0.60% Group T 15,390 0.46% Australian Democrats 10,706 0.32% Bullet Train For Australia 8,698 0.26% Socialist Equality Party 8,028 0.24% Candidate Party 1 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party 2 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party 3 Scott RYAN Liberal Party 4 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party 5 Mark ERWOOD Bullet Train for Australia 6 Janet RICE Australian Greens The current Group Ticket voting system used in The senate could give a party with 0.26% of the vote a seat in the Senate
  17. 17. HOW TO TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR PREFERENCES  You can choose your own preferences by voting below the line  It’s not easy to number all the candidates from 1 to 97. The best way to manage this is by using an online tool to create a personalised “how to vote card”  Cluey Voter is recommended - https://www.clueyvoter.com  You could also use - http://www.belowtheline.org.au/  Don’t forget to also number above the line! Below the line will count first, but if you make a mistake your above the line vote will then be counted.

×