Mba 512 Final Example 2

962 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
962
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
18
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Mba 512 Final Example 2

  1. 1. 11/19/2009 The History of the Cell Phone:  The mobile phone or cell phone has come a long way from it’s ancestor the two-way radio in vehicles. The mobile phone dates back to 1910 but was really classified a cellular phone in Cell Phones off the Road ?  1973.  On April 3, 1973, Motorola employee Dr. Martin Cooper placed a call to a colleague, while strolling the streets of New York City talking on the first Motorola DynaTAC prototype in front of the media.* (Considered 1st generation) Marc Kostelansky  Second Generation phone systems were characterized by digital circuit switched transmission and the introduction of advanced and fast phone-to-network signaling. Established in Finland in 1991 but the first person-to-person SMS text message was & possible in Finland in 1993*  Third Generation has been developed and it is in use but the technology is being Aniello Tambasco advanced and tested for future uses in live streaming of radio and television.*  According to the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association, today there are more than 60 million customers with cellular phones, even though wireless service was just invented nearly 50 years ago. The cellular business was a $3 million market 25 years ago and has grown increasingly to close to a $30 billion per year industry.** **http://cellphones.org/cell-phone-history.html *http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_mobile_phones Background Statistics Background Statistics (Cont.):  Distraction from cell phone use while driving (hand held or hands free) extends a driver's reaction as much as having a blood alcohol  Laws on cell phone usage while driving have been proposed in 40 states concentration at the legal limit of .08%. (University of Utah) and there are bans already in place in 23 countries around the world (CMAJ, 2001).  The No.1 source of driver inattention is use of a wireless device. (Virginia Tech /NHTSA)  In 2005, 5,699 teens whose ages range from 16 to 20 died in car crashes  Drivers that use cell phones are four times as likely to get into crashes and accounted for 27.4% of all fatal crashes (Current Events, 2007). serious enough to injure themselves. (NHTSA, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety)  Drivers who use cell phones take longer to apply the brakes and  10% of drivers aged 16 to 24 years old are on their phone at any one quadruple their chances of getting in an accident (Solomon, 2000). time.  Driving while distracted is a factor in 25% of police reported crashes.  Sources say that cell phone usage has caused 2,600 deaths and 330,000 injures in the United States each year. Cell phone usage has risen 600% in  Driving while using a cell phone reduces the amount of brain activity the United States and 80% of all crashes and 65% of near crashes we due associated with driving by 37%. (Carnegie Mellon) to a distracted driver (DrivingLaws.org, 2009). 1
  2. 2. 11/19/2009 Exploration: Data Preparation:  Gender:  Hypothesis: Cell phone use should be banned while driving in order to Male (0) = 14 Female (1) = 24 37% minimize distraction to the driver except if a hands-free device is used. 0 63% 1  Target Audience: • Male or Female • Age range from 16-60 years old • Must have a valid driver’s license • Must own a cell phone Age Distribution of Surveys Collected 1. 16 - 25 Years Old (29) 40  Data Collection: • 10 Question survey distributed on paper 2. 26 – 35 Years Old (4) 30 • Population size >30 3. 36 – 45 Years Old (3) 20 • Distributed at random 10 Total • Distributed 50 surveys and 38 people responded 4. 46 – 55 Years Old (1) 5. 56 – 65 Years Old (1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Data Preparation: Data Preparation: 40 35  Functions used while driving: 30  Time Spent on Cell Phone Daily 16 14 Phone Call (38 out of 38) 25 1 – 0 mins to 5 mins (0) 12 20 Texting (29 out of 38) 15 2 – 6 mins to 12 mins (3) 10 Total 8 Email (4 out of 38) 10 3 – 13 mins to 30 mins (7) 6 5 Other apps (2 out of 38) 0 4 - 31 mins to 1 hr (15) 4 2 Sum of Fxn:Phone Sum of Fxn: Sum of Sum of Fxn: Email Fxn: Other 5 – 1 hr + (13) 0 Call Texting apps. 2 3 4 5 Gender Breakdown of Hands Free 6 Breakdown of Accidents due to Cell Phone 3.5 Device Usage 4 Usage by Gender 3 2 Total 2.5 0 Male (4) 0 0 Male (1) 2 1 Female (3) 0 1 1 Female (3) 1.5 4 out 38 people admitted to being in an accident 7 out of 38 people use a hands free device(18.4%) 1 due to using a cell phone while driving. (10.52%) 0.5 0 0 1 2
  3. 3. 11/19/2009 Data Preparation: One Sample Proportion Test How distracted do you rate yourself while driving and using a cell phone? 1 – Not Distracted (2) 30 HYPOTHESIS TESTS hypothesized value sample proportion x sample size std error 2 – Somewhat Distracted (25) 25 for the proportion 0.5 0.184211 7 38 0.08111071 3 – Distracted (8) 20 NULL : p<=0.5 Most people don’t use a hands free device while driving. 4 – Very Distracted (2) 15 5 – I Never Use a Cell Phone While Driving (1) 10 ALTERNATIVE: p>0.5 Most people use a hands free device while driving. 5 Do most people use a hands free device while driving? 0 test statistic (obs) (3.893) 1 2 3 4 5 one-tailed or two- critical measure 1.645 =NORMSINV tailed? 1 0 1 Should Cell Phone Use Be Banned While Driving? |obs| > critical? Yes 0 – No (23) 1 – Yes (15) p-value 0.00004944 =(# of tails)*(1-NORMSDIST) 39% a-level 0.050 15 out of 38 people would like to have cell phone usage 61% p-value < a-level? Yes banned (39.47%) Accept the Null One Sample Proportion Test 2 One Sample Proportion Test 3 hypothesized sample sample hypothesized sample HYPOTHESIS TESTS value proportion x size std error HYPOTHESIS TESTS value proportion x sample size std error 0.5 0.105263158 4 38 0.081110711 for the proportion 0.5 0.394736842 15 38 0.081110711 for the proportion Most people were not in an accident due to Most people do not agree that cell phone NULL : p<=0.5 driving and using a cell phone. NULL : p<=0.5 use should be banned while driving. Most people were in an accident due to driving Most people agree that cell phone use ALTERNATIVE: p>0.5 and using a cell phone. ALTERNATIVE: p>0.5 should be banned while driving. Do most accident occur due to driving and using a cell phone? Do most people think cell phone use should be banned while driving? test statistic (obs) (4.867) test statistic (obs) (1.298) one-tailed or one-tailed critical measure 1.645 =NORMSINV two-tailed? 1 or two- critical measure 1.645 =NORMSINV tailed? 1 |obs| > critical? Yes |obs| > critical? No p-value 0.00000057 =(# of tails)*(1-NORMSDIST) p-value 0.09718296 =(# of tails)*(1-NORMSDIST) a-level 0.050 a-level 0.050 p-value < a-level? Yes p-value < a-level? No Accept the Null Reject the Null! 3
  4. 4. 11/19/2009 Scatter plot of Distraction Rating vs. Simple Linear Regression Banning Opinion Y Variable – Banning Option 1.2 0 - No 1 - Yes 1 0.8 X Variable – Distraction Rating 0.6 0 – Not Distracted 1 – Somewhat Distracted 0.4 2 – Distracted 0.2 3 – Very Distracted 4 – I never us a cell phone while driving. 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Weak Positive Relationship Linear Regression Cont. Multiple Regression P Value  Correlation Coefficient = 41.01% Gender: 0.105814  R^2 = 0.1682 Age: 0.034488  Std. Error = 0.4580 Driver's license: - Own a cell phone: -  Slope = 0.2602 Fxn:Phone Call -  Intercept = -0.2147 Fxn: Texting 0.028097  P Value = 0.0105 Fxn: Email 0.443939  T obs = 2.698 Fxn: Other apps. 0.713586 There is a weak positive relationship between the variables, Do you use a hands free device while driving?: 0.273375 therefore, accept the null. Time spent on cell phone: 0.145984 Banned Option = -0.2147 + 0.2602 (Distraction Rating) Where you in an accident while driving and using your cell phone?: 0.67988 Example: A person who feels very distracted (4) will vote to have cell phones How distracted are you while driving and using a cell phone?: 0.002957 banned while driving. (Banned option = 1) 4
  5. 5. 11/19/2009 Multiple Regression Cont Multiple Regression Cont Regression 2  Correlation Coefficient = 43.65% P Value  Adjusted R = 0.1681  Std. Error = 0.4518 Age: 0.180788  T obs = -2.9114 Fxn: Texting 0.01326  Intercept = 0.7778 How distracted are you while driving and using a cell  Slope = -0.5019 phone?: 0.020305  P value = 0.00614 Regression 3  F value = 0.0061 <= LOW! Therefore there is a weak negative correlation between the variables. P Value Example: Banning Option = 0.7778 – 0.5019 (Texting) Fxn: Texting 0.031041 Someone who Text messages (1) while driving is likely to vote How distracted are you while driving and using a cell against having cell phones banned while driving (Banned option = phone?: 0.054119 0). Results: Recommendations:  Hypothesis 1 • Most people don’t use a hands free device while driving.  Bigger population  Hypothesis 2  Distribute the surveys in various locations • Most people were not in an accident due to using a cell phone and driving. and types (online, phone, etc.)  Hypothesis 3  Compare accidents with users of services • Most people agree cell phone usage should be banned such as On Star. while driving.  Regression 1  Analyze data from states that have • There was a weak positive relationship between the banned option and already banned cell phone usage while distraction rating. driving.  Regression 2 • There was a weak negative correlation between the banned option  Collect more specific data (Ex. Time on and using the texting function while driving. phone while driving) 5
  6. 6. 11/19/2009 Questions? 6

×