Security and Terrorism

SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM
Victor Finkel

CONCEPTS

Just War Theory
“Jus ad bellum” - Right to go to War
Just Cause
Last Resort
Declared by Legitimate Authority
Right Intention
Reasonable Chance of Success
End Proportional to Means
“Jus in bello” – Right conduct within War
Discrimination
Who are legitimate targets of war?
Proportionality
How much force is appropriate?
Responsibility
Maintaining responsibility amongst soldiers
“Jus post bellum”
Compensation
Rehabilitation
Punishment
Standing in International Law?
Significance of International Law?

Golden Arches Peace Theory

Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention
No two countries that are both part of a major global supply chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each other as long as they are both part of the same global supply chain.”
Nations are unwilling to risk the employment generated by globalizastion, and don’t fight.
Use to argue why economic ties are a positive; e.g. in sanctions debates
Examples:
India/Pakistan Nuclear Standoff
Taiwan/China
?

Democratic Peace Theory
Democracies almost never fight with each other – lack of any real wars between real democracies in 20th C
-Normative Reasons
-Structural Reasons
Argue that promoting democracy has broader benefits to protecting the security of existing democratic nations
?democratic crusade?
Other explanations; e.g. political similarity
Just a matter of time – e.g. Iran (is this true democracy though?)
Promoting democracy can backfire – increase conflict

Mutually Assured Destruction vs Non-Proliferation
More Nukes = More Safety!
Presumes:
Bipolar world
Rational Actors
Perfect Detection
Perfect Lines of Communication
Clear operating protocols
How closely does this reflect reality?
Are you willing to gamble on a mistake?

War vs Insurgency
War
“Conventional Warfare”
US etc have massive technological superiority in this type of conflict
The initial campaign in Iraq 2003 was over in four weeks, 6 weeks after George Bush declared ‘victory’
Libyan air defences destroyed within days by Tomohawk missile attacks
Insurgency
“Guerilla Warfare”
Iraq didn’t finish till 2010; even then not really. 10 times as many died in insurgency as in initial war

Terrorism
Key questions when considering counter-terrorism policies
What is the root cause of the terrorism?
Will this tactic work given the particular structure of the terrorist organisation?
Will this just make things worse?
Hearts and Minds of the people – terrorists do not live in a vacuum. They get support. How, Why?

TORTURE
Once ultimate taboo, torture seems to be back in fashion.
Used extensively in “War on Terror” in Guantanamo, Egypt (Extraordinary Rendition) etc
Key Questions
What does torture include?
Who could it be used on?
Does it work?
Where & how will it be used? Slippery slope?
Are there other ways to have gained this information?

PIRACY
Piracy rampant off coast of Somalia; near Suez canal – 97 attacks so far this year. Use small boats.
Risk/Reward Equation; need to hit both sides of each
Options
Naval Deployment
Arming Merchant Ships
Land Resolution; Invasion?
Case Study: Straights of Malacca
40 attacks in 2004, only 2 in 2008
Military: Air patrols, information sharing
Civil: End of conflict in Aceh, restoration of economy

Sovereignty
In Favour
Sovereign Right to govern necessary to prevent meddling by other countries
Sovereignty must be respected if nations are to be able to work together in International Frameworks
To maintain the good parts of the NORM, we must accept the bad (restrictions)
Against
Sovereignty is an artifact of history
Should not be respected in cases where
Clear Humanitarian Crisis
Does not represent the Will of the People
All other methods have been tried
?

Multi-Lateralismvs Unilateralism
Unilateral vs. multilateral war: big issue in recent years – is it legitimate for and should countries intervene internationally on their own? Is there a certain mandate and legitimacy that comes with collective intervention?
Application in debates: aside from the obvious example of Iraq II, which was latterly unilateral, it often arises where it’s claimed that “we can’t wait for things to get any worse”.
Consider issues of precedent, slippery slope, role of the UN etc.

Debating about Invasions / Assassinations etc
AFF
Establish Imperative
Identify a tipping point (why we can’t wait)
Last Resort (all other options have been tried)
Provide clear mechanism
Outline a military strategy that will work
Initial conflict
Continuing conflict (insurgency?)
Include amnesty option for combatants / suggest won’t fight
Show path to a better future
Reconstruction efforts?
Who will take power afterwards?
Creates important positive precedents
NEG
Throw mess around
War is never clean or simple
Civilians & Soldiers will die
Responsibility on our hands
Show how will mobilise opposition
EVEN IF invasion works
Show most likely scenario will be at best sub-optimal and most likely even worse than to start
Undermines precedents of international law

Chain of Command
"An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This inference does not apply to a patently illegal order, such as one that directs the commission of a crime.”
"the justification for acts done pursuant to orders does not exist if the order was of such a nature that a man of ordinary sense and understanding would know it to be illegal."

Amnesties
How do you deal with the old guard who will opposed change? Consider “Golden Parachutes” of sorts.

Collective Security
Do we need to have our own armed forces?

Soft Power vs Hard Power
Carrot vs Stick!
Try both

Rational vs Irrational Actors

MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
In particular looking at ‘game changers’

Combat Drones
Avoids risking life of soldier – good or bad?
Decision making
Deployment Duration
War Cost
Operator driven vs fully automated?

Satellite Weapons
Bad Idea
Space is a tricky place to keep clean

Bunker Busters
Bombs such as GBU-28; over 6 m over hardened concrete no worries
Nuclear versions – Earth Penetrating Weapons; up to 50 m
Not really going to get inside a mountain… but you might collapse some tunnels

Stealth
U.S. Stealth Bombers
F-117
B-2
(F-22)
Anti-Stealth Missile Systems
Russian S-300 and S-400 Missile System have limited anti-stealth capability
Potential sale to Iran stopped by latest round of sanctions

Anti-Ballistic Missiles
Types
Standard SM-3 (US)
Patriot Missile (broadly)
Efficacy
Limited to shorter range missiles, single warheads
i.e. might stop Iran or NK but won’t stop Russia
Controversy
Undermines MAD by weakening probability of enemy hit – implication is arms race again

TOPICS
That international institutions should use force to restrict the sale of small arms to African nations
That gun ownership should be restricted to law enforcement agencies
That we should rely on mutual assured destruction rather than on nuclear non-proliferation
That the UN should hire mercenaries for military operations
That we would create separate units for gays in the military
That we would hold soldiers accountable for war crimes committed while following orders
TTHW Invade Zimbabwe

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Security and Terrorism

by Monash Association of Debaters on Apr 23, 2011

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Security and Terrorism — Webinar Transcript