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Security and Terrorism

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Victor Finkel, reigning Worlds Champion and Worlds Best Speaker, gives a session on Security and Terrorism.

Victor Finkel, reigning Worlds Champion and Worlds Best Speaker, gives a session on Security and Terrorism.

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  • Just Cause: Commonly agree responding to acts of open aggression. But how draw the line? Invasion – Insult – Trade Embargo? Reactive or Pre-emptive? Greater effect vs conjecture? Slippery Slope?Legit irrelevantRight Intention; oil etc. Justifiable, resenemtnet etc?Why are soliders legitimate targets? Volunteerism; Boxing ring analogy. Threat to invader. Soldiers at home? IN Civ gear? Civs who shelter fighters? Human shields, willing or not? Collective Responsibility for actions of government? Financiers of war?Proportionality – Avoid escalation; Minimise necessary suffering. Is Israels’ response to Rocket’s proportional? What is proportional?Where does assassination sit here? Aim: discourage retaliatory tit for tat and escalation. Key distinction. Israel/Palestine – Try for War Crimes
  • Confessions through torture are not admissable in any civilised country – say what want to hearUzbek confessions in exchange for showing valuable partner in woT; increased military aidEgypt Emergency Powers – USMalaysia indefinite detention powers w/ ref to Guantanamo BayRussia uses Abu Ghraib defence of ‘bad apples’ to defend abus in Chechnya
  • Think Iraq / Afghanistan – quick initial invasion vs insurgency Evin IF – e.g. Musharaff; e.g. Emerson Mnangagwa; e.g. Kim Il Sung?
  • Transcript

    • 1. SECURITY: WAR & TERRORISM
      Victor Finkel
    • 2. CONCEPTS
    • 3. Just War Theory
      “Jus ad bellum” - Right to go to War
      Just Cause
      Last Resort
      Declared by Legitimate Authority
      Right Intention
      Reasonable Chance of Success
      End Proportional to Means
      “Jus in bello” – Right conduct within War
      Discrimination
      Who are legitimate targets of war?
      Proportionality
      How much force is appropriate?
      Responsibility
      Maintaining responsibility amongst soldiers
      “Jus post bellum”
      Compensation
      Rehabilitation
      Punishment
      Standing in International Law?
      Significance of International Law?
    • 4. Golden Arches Peace Theory
    • 5. Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention
      No two countries that are both part of a major global supply chain, like Dell’s, will ever fight a war against each other as long as they are both part of the same global supply chain.”
      Nations are unwilling to risk the employment generated by globalizastion, and don’t fight.
      Use to argue why economic ties are a positive; e.g. in sanctions debates
      Examples:
      India/Pakistan Nuclear Standoff
      Taiwan/China
      ?
    • 6. Democratic Peace Theory
      Democracies almost never fight with each other – lack of any real wars between real democracies in 20th C
      -Normative Reasons
      -Structural Reasons
      Argue that promoting democracy has broader benefits to protecting the security of existing democratic nations
      ?democratic crusade?
      Other explanations; e.g. political similarity
      Just a matter of time – e.g. Iran (is this true democracy though?)
      Promoting democracy can backfire – increase conflict
    • 7. Mutually Assured Destruction vs Non-Proliferation
      More Nukes = More Safety!
      Presumes:
      Bipolar world
      Rational Actors
      Perfect Detection
      Perfect Lines of Communication
      Clear operating protocols
      How closely does this reflect reality?
      Are you willing to gamble on a mistake?
    • 8. War vs Insurgency
      War
      “Conventional Warfare”
      US etc have massive technological superiority in this type of conflict
      The initial campaign in Iraq 2003 was over in four weeks, 6 weeks after George Bush declared ‘victory’
      Libyan air defences destroyed within days by Tomohawk missile attacks
      Insurgency
      “Guerilla Warfare”
      Iraq didn’t finish till 2010; even then not really. 10 times as many died in insurgency as in initial war
    • 9. Terrorism
      Key questions when considering counter-terrorism policies
      What is the root cause of the terrorism?
      Will this tactic work given the particular structure of the terrorist organisation?
      Will this just make things worse?
      Hearts and Minds of the people – terrorists do not live in a vacuum. They get support. How, Why?
    • 10. TORTURE
      Once ultimate taboo, torture seems to be back in fashion.
      Used extensively in “War on Terror” in Guantanamo, Egypt (Extraordinary Rendition) etc
      Key Questions
      What does torture include?
      Who could it be used on?
      Does it work?
      Where & how will it be used? Slippery slope?
      Are there other ways to have gained this information?
    • 11. PIRACY
      Piracy rampant off coast of Somalia; near Suez canal – 97 attacks so far this year. Use small boats.
      Risk/Reward Equation; need to hit both sides of each
      Options
      Naval Deployment
      Arming Merchant Ships
      Land Resolution; Invasion?
      Case Study: Straights of Malacca
      40 attacks in 2004, only 2 in 2008
      Military: Air patrols, information sharing
      Civil: End of conflict in Aceh, restoration of economy
    • 12. Sovereignty
      In Favour
      Sovereign Right to govern necessary to prevent meddling by other countries
      Sovereignty must be respected if nations are to be able to work together in International Frameworks
      To maintain the good parts of the NORM, we must accept the bad (restrictions)
      Against
      Sovereignty is an artifact of history
      Should not be respected in cases where
      Clear Humanitarian Crisis
      Does not represent the Will of the People
      All other methods have been tried
      ?
    • 13. Multi-Lateralismvs Unilateralism
      Unilateral vs. multilateral war: big issue in recent years – is it legitimate for and should countries intervene internationally on their own? Is there a certain mandate and legitimacy that comes with collective intervention?
      Application in debates: aside from the obvious example of Iraq II, which was latterly unilateral, it often arises where it’s claimed that “we can’t wait for things to get any worse”.
      Consider issues of precedent, slippery slope, role of the UN etc.
    • 14. Debating about Invasions / Assassinations etc
      AFF
      Establish Imperative
      Identify a tipping point (why we can’t wait)
      Last Resort (all other options have been tried)
      Provide clear mechanism
      Outline a military strategy that will work
      Initial conflict
      Continuing conflict (insurgency?)
      Include amnesty option for combatants / suggest won’t fight
      Show path to a better future
      Reconstruction efforts?
      Who will take power afterwards?
      Creates important positive precedents
      NEG
      Throw mess around
      War is never clean or simple
      Civilians & Soldiers will die
      Responsibility on our hands
      Show how will mobilise opposition
      EVEN IF invasion works
      Show most likely scenario will be at best sub-optimal and most likely even worse than to start
      Undermines precedents of international law
    • 15. Chain of Command
      "An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This inference does not apply to a patently illegal order, such as one that directs the commission of a crime.”
      "the justification for acts done pursuant to orders does not exist if the order was of such a nature that a man of ordinary sense and understanding would know it to be illegal."
    • 16. Amnesties
      How do you deal with the old guard who will opposed change? Consider “Golden Parachutes” of sorts.
    • 17. Collective Security
      Do we need to have our own armed forces?
    • 18. Soft Power vs Hard Power
      Carrot vs Stick!
      Try both
    • 19. Rational vs Irrational Actors
    • 20. MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
      In particular looking at ‘game changers’
    • 21. Combat Drones
      Avoids risking life of soldier – good or bad?
      Decision making
      Deployment Duration
      War Cost
      Operator driven vs fully automated?
    • 22. Satellite Weapons
      Bad Idea
      Space is a tricky place to keep clean
    • 23. Bunker Busters
      Bombs such as GBU-28; over 6 m over hardened concrete no worries
      Nuclear versions – Earth Penetrating Weapons; up to 50 m
      Not really going to get inside a mountain… but you might collapse some tunnels
    • 24. Stealth
      U.S. Stealth Bombers
      F-117
      B-2
      (F-22)
      Anti-Stealth Missile Systems
      Russian S-300 and S-400 Missile System have limited anti-stealth capability
      Potential sale to Iran stopped by latest round of sanctions
    • 25. Anti-Ballistic Missiles
      Types
      Standard SM-3 (US)
      Patriot Missile (broadly)
      Efficacy
      Limited to shorter range missiles, single warheads
      i.e. might stop Iran or NK but won’t stop Russia
      Controversy
      Undermines MAD by weakening probability of enemy hit – implication is arms race again
    • 26. TOPICS
      That international institutions should use force to restrict the sale of small arms to African nations
      That gun ownership should be restricted to law enforcement agencies
      That we should rely on mutual assured destruction rather than on nuclear non-proliferation
      That the UN should hire mercenaries for military operations
      That we would create separate units for gays in the military
      That we would hold soldiers accountable for war crimes committed while following orders
      TTHW Invade Zimbabwe

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