• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Aquamarine 14th Annual Partners Meeting New york,London Zurich
 

Aquamarine 14th Annual Partners Meeting New york,London Zurich

on

  • 739 views

Aquamarine Capital Annual Partnership Meetings held in New York, London and Zurich. www. AquamarineFund.com

Aquamarine Capital Annual Partnership Meetings held in New York, London and Zurich. www. AquamarineFund.com

Statistics

Views

Total Views
739
Views on SlideShare
738
Embed Views
1

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

1 Embed 1

http://paper.li 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment
  • Only 3 years underperformed…
  • Amazes me how many people misunderstand the value proposition here. Good news is that there is a small proportion of people who do – and they seek me out… Only about 5 people in the world who run money this way. All of them are phenomenal people. Can introduce you some time.
  • Seen the book. Checklists: Washing hands – reduces infection rates.Aeroplanes. Works in investing too. Seek to find mistakes - & salient facts that existed at the time of the mistake. Seek to avoid
  • Why great partnerships work. Seek to find great partnerships. Put yourself in the company of the right people. Structure the conversation in the right way.

Aquamarine 14th Annual Partners Meeting New york,London Zurich Aquamarine 14th Annual Partners Meeting New york,London Zurich Presentation Transcript

  • Welcome!
    Aquamarine 14th Annual Partners Meeting
    New York, London, Zurich
    Guy Spier
    Managing Partner
  • Agenda
    • Performance review & expectations
    • Post mortem on past holdings
    • Thoughts on the economy..
    • Q&A
  • Investment Performance (As of September 2010 net of fees since inception – Sep 1997
    Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc.
  • Performance Expectations
    • 85% of mutual funds lag the S&P 500 Index after all fees and expenses. Just 0.5% of Mutual Funds beat the Indices by over 3%. (Source: Bogle)
    • My goal is to beat the three indices over the long haul. Beating all three indices is likely to put us in the top 10% of all US mutual funds and hedge funds.
    • I’m quite confident we willbeat the indices over the long haul. Not sure by how much
  • Aquamarine Fund Value Proposition
    Low / No management fees vs. 2/20 @ some funds
    Spier family is the largest investor – we eat our own cooking
    No performance fees until fund regains new highs
    No leverage, No margin loans, No short positions, no complexity
  • I only make money if you make money…
  • Process Adjustments
  • The model I like to sort of simplify the notion of what goes on in a market for common stocks is the pari-mutuel system at the racetrack. If you stop to think about it, a pari-mutuel system is a market. Everybody goes there and bets and the odds change based on what's bet. That's what happens in the stock market.
    - Charlie Munger
    ( Commencement Address to USC law school)
  • Moody’s
  • Cresud: Investment considerations at purchase
    • Argentina: Kirschner government introduces heavy levies on agricultural exports.
    • Agricultural and other commodities have plunged.
    • Eduardo Elztain: Controversial figure both in Argentina and in the US. - Aggressive with the company shareholders.
    • Financial crisis: Developed markets hit badly. Developing markets even worse.
    • Share price has plunged: $22 to below $5 in 8 months
  • Cresud: Investment considerations at purchase
    Market Cap
    US$ 250 million
    $ 50 million in s/t debt. No LT. Debt:
    EV $300 million
    IRSA stake.
    $250 million.
    (Intrinsic value much higher)
    Arable Land
    675 mm hectares arable farm land
    - 280 mm hectares producing land
    Value in Argentina: U$$500 - 5,000 per hectare. Value in the USA – as high as $30,000 per hectare.
    $680 million @ $1,000 per hectare
  • Go long what China is short
    - John Burbank, Passport Capital
  • CresudS.p.a.
  • Investment Considerations at Purchase
    • Fairfax Financial (PremWatsa) & Wilbur Ross - 20%
    • Approx annual sales: 17-19 mm tonnes (2.6mm met coal)
    • Cash margin per ton $10
    • Moderate production costs cost producer
    • Valuation: 6.5X Cash Margin (US$ 1 billion)
    • Substantial Reserves (1.1 billion tons. 320mm met coal.)
  • ?
  • International Coal
    Projected Met Sales for 2011 = 3.1-3.5 mmt
  • London Mining
  • Fortescue Metals Group
  • USA: Rail Car Loadings
  • USA: Unemployment
  • USA: Housing Affordability Index
  • Daiwa Industries 6459 JP
    大和冷機工業
  • Daiwa Industries 6459 JP
    大和冷機工業
  • Daiwa Industries 6459 JP
    大和冷機工業
  • Japan Nikkei
    NKY: 1981 - 2011
  • Dankevielmals
    Auf widerluege
    Thank you