Telekomunikasi

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  • 1. Pengembangan Strategi Suatu Unit Bisnis Telekomunikasi Lukmanulhakim Almamalik
  • 2. Pendahuluan• Sebuah Unit Bisnis dari sebuah Perusahaan Telekomunikasi beroperasi di sebuah kota kecil.• Operasi unit bisnis perusahaan ini meliputi penggantian, pemeliharaan, dan pemasangan sambungan dan koneksivitas telekomunikasi di kota tersebut.• Proses ini juga melibatkan perancangan dan perencanaan sambungan telekomunikasi sama halnya dengan pekerjaan jasa perbaikan dan pemeliharaan. Semua kegiatan dalam industri ini dikenal sebagai ‘job’.
  • 3. Permasalahan• Meskipun Unit Bisnis Perusahaan Telekomunikasi ini telah berpengalaman dalam pekerjaan, sementara itu dalam pasar telekomunikasi ini untuk semua jasa layanan yang ditawarkan Unit Bisnis ini secara keseluruhan mengalami pertumbuhan, akan tetapi pangsa pasar (market share) Unit Bisnis ini ternyata mengalami penurunan dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.• Disamping itu, harga aktual dari Unit Bisnis ini mengalami penurunan, bahkan harga yang ditawarkan lebih rendah dari harga rata-rata industri ini.
  • 4. Behaviour Over Time (BOT) for the TBU strategy case Total Market Average job completion time Average price per job Market Share tahun
  • 5. System Overview• Pengembangan suatu systems map dan causal loop diagram untuk menjelaskan perilaku variabel-variabel kunci yang ditampilkan dalam grafik Perilaku Terhadap Waktu (BOT).
  • 6. Systems (high level) map main sectors Market Sector Human ResourcesOperation Sector Sector Finance Sector
  • 7. Causal Loop Diagram Model O Market Share Market Growth Rate PriceTotal B1Market Ave time in job R1 backlog Revenue O Potential Job in Market Job in process O backlog O Job Starts Perceive Jobs quality Operating net O Cost Job Arrivals cash flow completion O O O R2 Staff Capacity Ave processing N PV time OtherDesired ops O O staff B2 delays O Productivity per Discount person Rate O Operations Relative job Staff Ave time to time ratio Gap in staff O complete jobs O numbers B4 B2 Industry job completion time R3 Staff Staff leaving hiring
  • 8. Main Feedback LoopLoop B1 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Job in Backlog – Av.(Quality – Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job TimeMarket) ratio - Perceive Quality – Market ShareLoop R1 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Job in Backlog – Av.(Quality – Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job TimePrice) ratio - Perceive Quality – Price - Market ShareLoop R2 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Desired Op. Staff – Gap(Staff – in Staff No. – Staff Hiring – Operation Staff – Staff Capacity – Job Start –Quality) Av. Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job Time ratio - Perceive Quality – Market ShareLoop B2 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Desired Op. Staff – Gap(Staff – in Staff No. – Staff Hiring – Operation Staff – Staff Capacity – Job Start –Price) Av. Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job Time ratio - Perceive Quality – Price – Market ShareLoop B3, B4, Gap in Staff No – Staff Hiring – Operation Staff – Gap in Staff No.dan R3 Operation Staff – Staff Leaving – Operation Staff(Staffing) Gap in Staff No. – Staff Hiring – Staff Leaving – Operation Staff – Gap in Staff No.
  • 9. Stock and Flow Diagram Model
  • 10. MARKET SECTOR target_market_sharequality_effect_on_market_share Potential_market_share market_growth_rate price_effect_on_market_share potential_marketRelative_job_time_ratio Total_market change_in_market_size Relative_price_ratio industry_price_per_job quality_effect_on_price Market_share price_per_job Job_arrivals
  • 11. OPERATION SECTOR Ave_backlog_time Job_in_backlog Job_in_proses Job_arrivals Job_start Job_completion staff_capacity Operation_staff other_delaypotential_market ave_completion_time ave_process_time productivity_per_person Relative_job_time_ratio work_intensity productive_hours_per_person industry_job_completion_time standard_processing_time_per_job hour_available_per_person
  • 12. HUMAN RESOURCES SECTOR Staff_Replacement_Delay Time_in_Organization Job_arrivals Job_arrivals_smoothing_time Staff_Replacement Staff_Keluar Ave_job_arrivals Hiring_delay Operation_staff Desired_ops_staff Perekrutan_Staff Gap_in_staff_numbers productivity_per_person
  • 13. FINANCE SECTOR Material_Cost_per_unit Job_start Ave_salary Operation_staff Material_cost Other_overheads Ave_contractor_jobs_cost eqip_charge_per_person Labour_cost Contractor_cost Operating_cost equipment_rentals Job_completion Gross_margin Taxes Tax_rate Cash Revenues Cash_outflow Net_cash_flow Discount_rate price_per_job Net_present_value
  • 14. PENGUJIAN DAN VALIDASI MODEL• Uji model selanjutnya adalah menyangkut validitas (kredibilitas) model. Tujuannya adalah mengetahui apakah model secara aktual dapat menggambarkan dan menghasilkan perilaku yang sama dengan apa yang diharapkan dari sistem nyatanya.• Validasi model ditentukan oleh dua jenis uji : – Uji Struktur Model : Apakah struktur model yang dibangun dapat merupakan suatu penjelasan dari permasalahan nyatanya? – Uji Perilaku Model : Apakah pola dinamika yang dihasilkan model sama dengan pola dinamika nyatanya?
  • 15. PENGUJIAN DAN VALIDASI MODEL• Uji struktur model ini biasanya melibatkan pakar dan praktisi yang memahami permasalahan untuk menguji struktur model yang telah dibangun apakah telah sesuai dengan teori dan kondisi yang ada di lapangan.• Uji perilaku model dirancang untuk membandingkan perilaku komponen model yang dibangun dengan perilaku dalam dunia nyatanya.• Dalam uji perilaku ini lebih pada membandingkan pola perilaku model dengan sistem nyatanya dan bukan membandingkan nilai- nilainya satu persatu.
  • 16. Base Case Behaviour 40 10 35 5Market_share Gross_margin 30 25 0 20 15 -5 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month 5.0 11,000 4.5ave_completion_time 10,500 price_per_job 4.0 10,000 3.5 9,500 3.0 2.5 9,000 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 17. Base Case Behaviour 1,000,000 1.05 800,000 Relative_price_ratioNet_present_value 1.00 600,000 400,000 0.95 200,000 0 0.90 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 Time month 40,000 1.8 1.7 Relative_job_time_ratio 30,000 1.6 Net_cash_flow 1.5 20,000 1.4 10,000 1.3 1.2 0 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 18. Analisis Sensitivitas• Analisis sensitivitas digunakan untuk menentukan seberapa sensitif sebuah model yang dibangun terhadap perubahan nilai parameter dan /atau strukturnya.
  • 19. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Nilai Parameter 100 35 90 2 30 80 1 market_share 70 1 1 12 Job_arrivals 1 25 60 2 Job_completion 2 2 1 3 Operation_staff 3 50 20 3 3 40 3 3 30 15 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month 5.0 11,000 4.5 10,500ave_completion_time price_per_job 4.0 10,000 3.5 9,500 3.0 2.5 9,000 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 20. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Nilai Parameter 10 1,000,000 800,000 Net_present_value 5Gross_margin 600,000 400,000 0 200,000 0 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month 40,000 relative_job_time_ratio 1.8 Net_cash_flow 20,000 1.6 0 1.4 -20,000 1.2 0 15 30 45 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 month month
  • 21. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktura. Merancang Ulang Rate ‘Job Arrival40 1035 51 2 1 1 1 130 2 2 2 2 Market_share Gross_margin 1 125 market_share_1 Gross_margin_1 12 2 2 2 2 0 1 2 2 120 1 115 -5 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month5.0 11,0004.5 10,5004.0 2 10,000 ave_completion_time price_per_job 1 1 2 123.5 ave_completion_time_1 1 1 1 price_per_job_1 2 2 1 2 2 2 9,500 2 2 1 23.0 1 1 12 12.5 9,000 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 22. a. Merancang Ulang Rate ‘Job Arrival1,000,000 1.05 1 800,000 2 1 1.00 600,000 2 12 1 1 1 Net_present_value 2 1 Relative_price_ratio 1 1 1 2 2 400,000 Net_present_value_1 Relative_price_ratio_1 2 2 2 0.95 2 12 200,000 2 0.90 01 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 Time month 1.8 40,000 1.7 1.6 20,000 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.5 Net_cash_flow Relative_job_time_ratio 1 2 1 0 Net_cash_flow_1 1.4 relative_job_time_ratio_1 2 2 2 1.3-20,000 2 1 1.2 1 1 12 1 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 23. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur b. Merancang Ulang Kebijakan Perekrutan Pegawai40 1035 51 2 1 1 1 130 2 2 2 2 Market_share Gross_margin 1 125 market_share_1 Gross_margin_1 12 12 2 2 12 1 1 0 22015 -5 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month5.0 11,0004.5 10,5004.0 2 10,000 ave_completion_time price_per_job 1 1 2 123.5 1 ave_completion_time_1 1 price_per_job_1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 9,500 2 2 23.0 1 122.5 9,000 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 24. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur b. Merancang Ulang Kebijakan Perekrutan Pegawai1,000,000 1.05 1 930,466.28 800,000 1 2 1.00 600,000 2 12 1 Relative_price_ratio 1 Net_present_value 2 1 1 2 1 1 400,000 2 1 Relative_price_ratio_1 Net_present_value_1 2 2 0.95 2 2 12 200,000 2 0.90 01 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 Time month 1.8 40,000 1.7 1.6 1 20,000 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.5 Net_cash_flow Relative_job_time_ratio 1 2 1 0 Net_cash_flow_1 1.4 relative_job_time_ratio_1 2 1 2 2 1 1.3 1-20,000 2 1.2 1 12 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 25. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Strukturc. Merancang Ulang Tanggapan terhadap Intensitas Kerja40 10 22.94 5.0435 1 1 1 52 1 130 2 2 2 2 Market_share Gross_margin 1 125 market_share_1 Gross_margin_1 12 12 2 2 12 12 0 12015 -5 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month5.0 11,0004.5 10,5004.0 1 ave_completion_time 10,000 price_per_job 2 1 1 1 123.5 ave_completion_time_1 12 price_per_job_1 2 2 2 12 1 12 9,500 2 13.0 1 122.5 9,000 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 26. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Strukturc. Merancang Ulang Tanggapan terhadap Intensitas Kerja1,000,000 1.05 1,103,674 1 800,000 2 1.00 1 600,000 2 12 1 Relative_price_ratio Net_present_value 2 1 1 1 2 2 Relative_price_ratio_1 400,000 Net_present_value_1 1 2 1 2 0.95 2 1 2 200,000 2 0.90 01 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 Time month 1.8 40,000 1.7 1 1.6 20,000 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.5 Net_cash_flow 2 Relative_job_time_ratio 1 1 1 0 Net_cash_flow_1 1.4 relative_job_time_ratio_1 2 2 2 1.3 1 2-20,000 1.2 1 12 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 27. Pengembangan Strategi 30 Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Base tightening Market up ops Boost 28Other Delay 1.25 1.00 1.00 26 3 3Work Intensity 0.80 0.82 0.82 1 Market_share 1 market_share_1 23 1 24 1 2 2 2 1 3 Market_share_2 1 3 2 2 22Standard Processing Time /Job 80.00 78.00 78.00Hiring Delay 3.00 2.50 2.50 20 0 15 30 45 60Staff Replacement Delay 4.00 3.00 3.00 monthAverage Salary 3,750.00 3,960.00 4,100.00 4.0 2Target Market Share 3 2 3.5 1 2 13 ave_completion_time 1 ave_completion_time_1 2 2 3.0 1 3 ave_completion_time_2 3 2 1 13 2.5 0 15 30 45 60 month
  • 28. 25 1,500,00020 1 1 1,000,000 1 315 Gross_margin 3 Net_present_value 1 1 1 2 Gross_margin_1 Net_present_value_110 2 2 2 3 Gross_margin_2 500,000 3 Net_present_value_2 3 3 1 2 352 1 13 1 1 23 3 2 2 2 2 30 01 2 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month Time 80,000 11,000 3 60,000 10,500 price_per_job Net_cash_flow 1 40,000 1 10,000 1 3 price_per_job_1 Net_cash_flow_1 1 2 2 2 23 1 Net_cash_flow_2 2 13 price_per_job_2 3 1 3 1 13 1 1 9,500 3 2 20,000 2 3 2 23 2 2 2 9,000 0 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month
  • 29. 1.00 50 130.99 1 2 20.98 45 3 3 1 2 1 2 Relative_price_ratio 2 13 Operation_staff0.97 1 1 3 13 Relative_price_ratio_1 2 1 Operation_staff_1 2 2 2 Relative_price_ratio_2 23 1 Operation_staff_20.96 3 40 1 3 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 10.95 3 20.94 35 0 15 30 45 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 month month1.6 75 2 6 11.5 70 2 5 2 3 2 5 Job_arrivals 1 4 11.4 1 3 Job_completion 2 6 2 2 Relative_job_time_ratio 5 1 3 1 65 4 Job_arrivals_11.3 1 3 3 relative_job_time_ratio_1 6 2 2 Job_completion_1 1 4 4 2 Relative_job_time_ratio_2 36 3 1 3 2 Job_arrivals_21.2 60 5 1 4 2 345 Job_completion_2 61.1 1 13 55 0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60 month month