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Market Update Princeton Area

Market Update Princeton Area

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  • 1. • Weichert, Princeton Market Update • Prepared exclusively for the Weichert Princeton Associates every week. • Town by town data available at www.slideshare.net
  • 2. Agenda • Understanding the Market Change • What is happening in the market • Comparison of 2007 v 2009: Market Activity • Current Market Data • Price Trend Analysis • A Plan to Move Forward
  • 3. 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
  • 4. 123 Any street, Princeton, NJ
  • 5. Listings from the MLS in Weichert Market Areas Increase % 2008 from 2007 NY/CT (Ashby) +.09% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) -2.54% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) -3.12% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) -1.10% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) -3.85% Southern NJ (Williams) +.78% In our local area (CT/NY/NJ. Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years.
  • 6. 2007 thru 2009 Market Activity Comparison: Week of 6/24/09 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 Inven. Pending Absorp. Active w/ Inven. Pending Absorp. Active w/ Inven. Pending Absorp. Active w/ Count Sales Rate Contr. Count Sales Rate Contr. Count Sales Rate Contr. (prev. 30 (months) (prev. (prev. 30 (months) (prev. (prev. 30 (months) (prev. 30 days) days) 30 days) days) days) 30 days) Pton. Boro 70 3 23.2 - 48 5 9.6 - 48 11 4.3 - Pton Twp 137 15 9.1 - 117 15 7.8 - 151 21 7.19 - W. Windsor 167 26 6.4 - 144 32 4.5 - 123 45 2.7 - Lawrence 230 36 6.3 - 207 22 9.4 - 182 38 4.7 - East Windsor 229 23 9.9 - 216 16 13.5 - 202 31 6.5 - Ewing 280 26 10.7 - 249 21 11.8 - 230 31 7.4 - Hamilton 561 57 9.8 - 629 48 13.1 - 591 112 5 - Hopewell Twp. 208 21 9.9 - 161 19 8.4 - 174 21 8 - Cranbury 40 1 40 - 33 3 11 - 91 16 5.6 - Plainsboro 132 15 8.8 - 117 25 4.687 - 91 16 5.6 - South Brunswick 250 27 9.2 - 209 19 11 - 227 88 3 - Montgom. 178 31 5.7 - 156 25 6.2 - 160 35 4.5 - Cum. 2482 281 8.8 - 2286 250 9.1 - 2203 451 4.88 -
  • 7. 2007 - 2009 Core Market Comparison: Week of 2/23 067 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 Inven. Pending Absorp. Active Inven. Pending Absorp.Ra Active w/ Inven. Pending Absorp. Active w/ w/ Sales te Contr. Sales Contr. Count Sales Rate Count Count Rate Contr. (prev. 30 (months) (prev. (prev. 30 (prev. 30 (prev. 30 (months) days) (prev. days) 30 days) days) days) 30 days) Pton Boro Pton. Twp. W. Windsor Plainsboro Montgom Lawrence Hopewell Twp. Cum.
  • 8. 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Days Princeton Boro: All Styles 48 11 4.3 7 (4) 8 16% 5 1 10 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 12 2 6 3 1 2 16% 1 1 1 Pton-Boro Single Family 36 9 4 4 (5) 6 16% 4 0 9 Pton Twp: All Styles 151 21 7.19 36 15 25 17% 5 9 14 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 23 3 7.6 4 1 4 17% 0 1 5 Pton Twp: Single Family 128 18 7.1 32 14 21 16% 5 8 9
  • 9. Town by Town Analysis 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in Gain Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days (Loss) to in 30 Days Reduced Market West Windsor: 123 45 2.7 30 (15) 47 38 6 5 36 All Styles West Windsor 23 15 1.5 9 (6) 11 47 0 2 12 Condo/ T.Houses West Windsor 6 0 99 - - - - - - 55+ West Windsor 94 30 3.1 21 (9) 36 38 6 3 24 Single Family Lawrence: All Styles 182 38 4.7 38 0 59 32 17 2 20 Lawrence: Condo/ 85 17 5 24 7 24 28 6 2 14 THouses Lawrence: 55+ 12 0 99 - - - - - - - Lawrence: Single 85 21 4 14 (7) 35 41 11 0 6
  • 10. Town by Town Analysis 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Days Reduced Ewing: All Styles 230 31 7.4 61 30 60 26 22 5 23 Ewing : Condo/ 44 9 4.8 9 0 15 34 2 2 5 T.Houses Ewing: 55+ 1 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ewing: Single 185 22 8.4 52 30 45 24 20 3 18 Family East Windsor: 202 31 6.5 50 19 49 24 19 5 30 All Styles East Windsor: 104 17 6.1 34 17 21 20 8 3 18 Condo/ THouses East Windsor: 19 0 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 55+ East Windsor: 81 14 5.7 16 2 28 34 11 2 12 Single Family
  • 11. Town by Town Analysis 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Days Hopewell Twp. All Styles 174 21 8 28 7 49 28% 15 5 12 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 24 7 3 10 3 7 29% 2 2 2 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 4 0 99 - - - - - - - Hopewell Twp: Single Family 146 14 10 18 4 42 29% 13 3 10 Hamilton: All Styles 591 112 5 136 24 153 26% 31 25 55 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 101 28 4 34 6 35 35% 11 5 10 Hamilton: Single Family 449 79 6 102 23 118 26% 20 20 45 Hamilton: 55+ 41 5 8 - - - - - - - -
  • 12. Town by Town Analysis 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Days = Robbinsville All Styles 119 19 6 29 10 27 23% 10 3 16 Robbinsville Condo/ 57 10 5.7 19 9 16 28% 4 3 8 T.Houses Robbinsville 55+ - - - - - - - - - - Single 62 9 7 10 1 11 18% 6 0 8 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 55 6 9 14 8 13 24% 2 2 2 Pennington Boro: 29 1 29 8 7 6 23% 0 1 1 All Styles Hopewell Boro: All Styles 14 4 3.5 1 (3) 3 21% 0 0 3
  • 13. Market Activity: Town by Town Analysis 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in Gain Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days (Loss) in 30 Reduced to Days Market Plainsboro All Styles 91 16 5.6 34 18 20 21% 11 0 29 Plainsboro Condo/ 54 3 18 24 21 13 24% 4 0 17 THouses Plainsboro 55+ 10 2 5 2 0 4 4% 0 0 0 Plainsboro Single 27 11 2,4 8 (4) 3 11% 7 0 12 Family Cranbury: All Styles 24 2 12 4 2 3 8% 0 0 1 Cranbury: 55+ 4 1 4 0 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 Cranbury: Single 20 1 20 4 3 3 15% 0 0 1 Family
  • 14. Market Activity: Town by Town Analysis 6/24/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/draw Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings n Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Listings Days South Brunswick 227 88 3 51 (37) 79 34% 16 16 29 All Styles South BrunswickCon 71 29 7 19 (20) 15 21% 5 9 12 do/ T.Houses South Brunswick 34 5 7 3 (2) 2 5% 0 0 0 55+ South Brunswick 122 54 2 29 (25) 16 13% 11 7 17 Single Family Monroe: All Styles 509 89 6 96 7 144 28% 27 12 3 Monroe: 55+ 345 46 7 45 (1) 113 33% 16 4 2 Monroe: Single Family 164 43 4 31 8 31 18% 11 8 1
  • 15. Town by Town Analysis 6/30/09 Towns Active Pending Absorption New Net Gain Listings % of Expired W/drawn Closed Listings in Last Rate in Listings in (Loss) to Reduced Invent. Listings Listings Listings 30 Days Months 30 Days Market in 30 Reduced Days Montgom. 160 35 4.5 47 12 38 24% 9 9 22 Hillsboro 260 40 6.5 83 43 57 22% 14 10 36 Rocky Hill 413 1 13 0 (1) 1 7.6% 0 0 1 Franklin
  • 16. Princeton Boro. Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 80 70 60 Princeton Boro Active Listings 50 Princeton Boro Pendings 40 30 Princeton Boro Price 20 Reductions 10 0
  • 17. Princeton Twp. Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 180 160 140 120 Twp. Actives 100 Twp. Pendings 80 Twp. Reductions 60 40 20 0
  • 18. West Windsor Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 250 200 West Windsor Actives 150 West Windsor Pendings 100 West Windsor Reductions 50 0
  • 19. Lawrence Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 300 250 200 Lawrence Actives 150 Lawrence Pendings Lawrence Reductions 100 50 0
  • 20. Cranbury Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 45 40 35 30 Cranbury Actives 25 Cranbury Pendings 20 Cranbury Reductions 15 10 5 0
  • 21. Plainsboro Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 180 160 140 120 Plainsboro Actives 100 Plainsboro Pendings 80 Plainsboro Reductions 60 40 20 0
  • 22. Ewing Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 350 300 250 Ewing Actives 200 Ewing Pendings 150 Ewing Reductions 100 50 0
  • 23. East Windsor Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 250 200 East Windsor Actives 150 East Windsor Pendings 100 East Windsor Reductions 50 0
  • 24. Montgomery Twp. Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 250 200 150 Montgomery Actives Montgomery Pendings 100 Montgomery Reductions 50 0
  • 25. Hopewell Twp. Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 250 200 Hopewell Twp. Actives 150 Hopewell Twp. Pendings 100 Hopewell Twp. Reductions 50 0
  • 26. Hamilton Active YTD Listings v Pending Analysis 700 600 500 Hamilton Actives 400 Hamilton Pendings 300 Hamilton Reductions 200 100 0
  • 27. Myth: If I reduce my price, buyers will wait for another reductions. Reality: There is a direct relationship between price improvements and contracts.
  • 28. Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’ 70 60 50 Princeton Pendings 40 30 Princeton Price Reductions 20 10 0 Source: trend mls
  • 29. Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’ 120 100 80 West Windsor Pendings 60 West Windsor Reductions 40 20 0 Source: trend mls
  • 30. Relationship of Price Reductions to ‘Pending Sales’ 100 90 80 70 60 Lawrence Pendings 50 40 Lawrence Reductions 30 20 10 0 Source: trend mls
  • 31. Understand the Market You are Selling Out of or Buying In to… Anytown., NJ 107 current active listings 24.3 = months 4 reported sales in last 30 days absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 32. Market Absorption Rate Comparable Properties Princeton Twp. $4+ bedroom 13 current active listings 99 month =absorption 0 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 33. Market Absorption Rate Comparable Properties Princeton Twp. $4+ bedroom colonials 11 current active listings 99 months =absorption 0 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 34. Market Absorption Rate Specific Comps 4+ bedroom Jefferson, Moore, Walnut, Harris only 7 current active listings 3.5 months =absorption 2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 35. Market Absorption Rate Specific Comps Lawrence, NJ $450-550 Colonials Only 12 current active listings 12 months =absorption 1 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 36. Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal 1 Market Absorption in Months 2 Weichert has been studying market 3 conditions for more than 4 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between 5 Normal market absorption and 6 property values. 7 As absorption rates increase beyond a normal 8 market level of 5-6 9 months, property values depreciate annually. 10 11 12
  • 37. Let’s look at your competition • Properties currently in competition with yours for buyer attention • Properties that have caught buyer attention in the last 30 days. • At this rate, how many months will it take for the current buyer demand to absorb the current listing supply in this sector of the market?
  • 38. Progress in Marketing Your Home • Broker open house • Public open houses • Agent showings Bottom line . . . • Internet activity Our experience is that an • Agent feedback average of 30 showings on a property, usually brings an • Buyer feedback offer.
  • 39. Showing Activity Prospective Buyer Showings 45 40 35 30 Prospective 25 Buyer Show ings 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Weeks on Market
  • 40. A Plan for Moving Forward • The market is telling us, by the absence of offers, to generate fresh interest by repositioning your home • This will bring a whole new group of buyers • Your home will stand out among all other properties • Competitively priced homes are selling
  • 41. Price to hit the market not chase it 500000 490000 Your Listing 480000 Your Listing 470000 460000 450000 Market 440000 430000 Market 420000 Market 410000 400000 1 mos 2 mos 3 mos 4 mos 5 mos 6 mos 7 mos
  • 42. Current Market Price Based on the available data and the increasing inventory combined with falling prices, I would recommend a price of $###,### for your home.
  • 43. Let’s Respond To & Get Ahead of the Market.