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Plan vs decision 2013 juici


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Making Decisions

Making Decisions

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  • 1. 7/17/2013 1 Plans vs. Decisions How Things Really Get Done? Leahcim Semaj
  • 2. Mobile: 876.383.5627 Skype: LSemaj Office: 876.948.5627 Twitter: LSemaj Email: Facebook: Leahcim.Semaj.2013 Blog: 7/17/2013 2
  • 3. 7/17/2013 3 A man is what he is, Not what he used to be Yiddish Proverb Yesterday is gone Today is a new day
  • 4. 7/17/2013 4 STOP LIVING IN THE PAST Never ask, “Oh, why were things so much better in the old days?” It‟s not an intelligent question  Eccles 7:10
  • 5. 7/17/2013 5 STOP LIVING IN THE PAST ... the one thing I do, however, is to forget what is behind me and do my best to reach what is ahead  Philippians 3:13
  • 6. 7/17/2013 6 The New Illiterate  The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write  but those who cannot  Learn  …Unlearn  …and Relearn  Alvin Toffler 90% Rule
  • 7. 7/17/2013 7 There’s Always A Better Way Of Doing Things Either You Or Your Competitor Will Find It Brad Anderson, CEO, SolArc, Inc
  • 9. 7/17/2013 9 Plan vs. Decision JOHN I plan to go back to school in September PAUL I have decided to go back to school in September
  • 10. 7/17/2013 10 Making Decisions & Solving Problems  The work of managers, of scientists, of engineers, of lawyers  The work that steers the course of society and its economic and governmental organizations is largely work of making decisions and solving problems
  • 11. 7/17/2013 11 Our Daily Activities  Choosing issues that require 1. attention 2. setting goals 3. finding or designing suitable courses of action 4. evaluating and choosing among alternative actions
  • 12. 7/17/2013 12 Making Decisions & Solving Problems  The first three of these activities  fixing agendas, setting goals  designing actions  are usually called Problem Solving  the last  evaluating and choosing  is usually called Decision Making
  • 13. 7/17/2013 13 The Way Forward Nothing is more important for the well-being of society than that this work be performed effectively  that we address successfully the many problems requiring attention at all levels
  • 14. 7/17/2013 14 Remember Good resolutions (plans) are simply checks that men draw on a bank where they have no account. Oscar Wilde
  • 15. 7/17/2013 15 How Do We Make Decisions?
  • 16. 7/17/2013 16 Where Do You Start? What lies behind us And what lies before us Are small matters Compared to What lies within us RALPH WALDO EMERSON
  • 17. 7/17/2013 17 Prehistory & Decision Making  For millennia, human decisions are guided by interpretations of entrails, smoke, dreams and the like  hundreds of generations of Chinese rely on the poetic wisdom and divination instructions compiled in the I Ching  The Greeks consult the oracle of Delphi  Prophets and seers of all kinds peer into the future
  • 18. 7/17/2013 18 1984 Daniel Isenberg explains that executives often combine rigorous planning with intuition when faced with a high degree of uncertainty
  • 19. 7/17/2013 19 2005  Malcolm Gladwell‟s book „Blink‟  Explores the notion that our instantaneous decisions  are sometimes better than those based on lengthy, rational analysis
  • 20. 7/17/2013 20 Blink  is about how we think without thinking  about choices that seem to be made in an instant in the blink of an eye  Choices that actually aren’t as simple as they seem  about those instantaneous decisions that are impossible to explain to others
  • 21. 7/17/2013 21 Blink  reveals that great decision makers aren’t those who process the most information  or spend the most time deliberating  but those who have perfected the art of “thin-slicing”  filtering the very few factors that matter from an overwhelming number of variables
  • 22. 7/17/2013 22 In his landmark bestseller, The Tipping Point,  Malcolm Gladwell redefined how we understand the world around us  Now, in Blink, he revolutionizes the way we understand the world within  by exploring the decisions made by experts  in museums, sales, sports, the military  and the high-speed world of the New York Mercantile Exchange
  • 23. 7/17/2013 23 Today Drawing on cutting-edge neuroscience and psychology, and displaying all of the brilliance that made The Tipping Point a classic, Blink changes the way you understand every decision you make
  • 24. Psychologist, Gerd Gigerenzer  Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute in Germany  new book "Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of The Unconscious“  New York, Viking, 2007  collects a convincing body of evidence for the power of hunches over laborious data crunching 7/17/2013 24
  • 25. Hunches  gut feelings  Intuition  these are all colloquial English for what Gigerenzer and his colleagues call "heuristics"  fast and efficient cognitive shortcuts that (according to the emerging theory)  can help us negotiate life, if we let them 7/17/2013 25
  • 26. What to Do "Take the best" means that you reason and calculate only as much as you absolutely have to; then you stop and do IT 7/17/2013 26
  • 27. 7/17/2013 27
  • 28. 7/17/2013 28 All leadership comes down to this: changing people's behavior Why is that so hard?
  • 29. 7/17/2013 29 Change or Die What if you were given that choice? We're talking actual life or death now
  • 30. 7/17/2013 30 Change or Die What if a well-informed, trusted authority figure said you had to make difficult and enduring changes in the way you think and act? If you didn't, you would die  a lot sooner than you had to
  • 31. 7/17/2013 31 Those Who said YES You're probably deluding yourself Chances are you wouldn't change
  • 32. 7/17/2013 32 Don't believe it? You want odds? Here are the odds The scientifically studied odds: NINE to ONE That's nine to one against you How do you like those odds?
  • 33. 7/17/2013 33 Lifestyle and Health A relatively small percentage of the population consumes the vast majority of the health-care budget for diseases that are very well known and by and large behavioral
  • 34. 7/17/2013 34 Many People are sick because of how they choose to live their lives Not because of environmental or genetic factors beyond their control
  • 35. 7/17/2013 35 For The last 50 Years  We know that 80% of health-care budget is consumed by 5 behavioral issues  too much  Smoking  Drinking  Eating  Stress  And not enough exercise
  • 36. 7/17/2013 36 Every Year in the United States  About 600,000 people have bypasses  1.3 million heart patients have angioplasties  All at a total cost of around U$30 billion  The procedures temporarily relieve chest pains but rarely prevent heart attacks or prolong lives
  • 37. 7/17/2013 37 Around Half of The Time the bypass grafts clog up in a few years the angioplasties , in a few months
  • 38. 7/17/2013 38 But Many Patients Could avoid the return of pain and the need to repeat the surgery Not to mention arrest the course of their disease before it kills them By switching to healthier lifestyles
  • 39. 7/17/2013 39 Very Few Do If you look at people after coronary-artery bypass grafting 2 years later 90% of them have not changed their lifestyle This been studied over and over and over again
  • 40. 7/17/2013 40 Even though they know they have a very bad disease and they know they should change their lifestyle for whatever reason they don't
  • 41. 7/17/2013 41 Resistance To Change Changing the behavior of people isn't just the biggest challenge in health care It's the most important challenge for businesses trying to compete in a turbulent world
  • 42. 7/17/2013 42 Change The central issue is never strategy, structure, culture, or systems The core of the matter is always about changing the behavior of people
  • 43. 7/17/2013 43 YOU may be called upon to respond to profound upheavals in marketplace dynamics a shift from a regulated to a deregulated environment or to a corporate reorganization, merger or entry into a new business
  • 44. 7/17/2013 44 As individuals we may want to change our own styles of work how we mentor subordinates how we react to criticism Yet more often than not, we don't
  • 45. Getting People to do The Right Thing Shaping Behaviour 7/17/2013 45
  • 46. for you You are responsible 7/17/2013 46
  • 47. for people You are not responsible 7/17/2013 47
  • 48. Your parents, partner, children, neighbors, work team… You are responsible to the people in your life… 7/17/2013 48
  • 49. people You can’t change 7/17/2013 49
  • 50. themselves People change 7/17/2013 50
  • 51. which increase or decrease the probability of people changing themselves You can create contexts 7/17/2013 51
  • 52. Wishful Thinking Threats Punishment Promises Rewards Motivation Inspiration Forces of Change 7/17/2013
  • 53. Rewards Promises Punishment Threats Wishing Changing Behaviour 7/17/2013
  • 54. A habitual or characteristic mental attitude that determines how you will interpret and respond to situations Mindset 7/17/2013 54
  • 55. Inspiration Motivation Changing Mindset 7/17/2013
  • 56. Visions, Goals and Plans Your Vision – 1 year Your Goals – 100 days Your Plans – 1 month 7/17/2013 56
  • 57. 57 7/17/2013 57 What Can We Learn From Our World Champions? Your behaviour can be a function Of your decisions Not your conditions
  • 58. 7/17/2013 58 The Way Forward If you want to get something you have never had You must be willing to do something you have never done Use The Right Tools
  • 59. 7/17/2013 59 You Still Have a Chance It is never too late to be what you might have been  George Eliot
  • 60. 7/17/2013 60 Eskimo Proverb Yesterday is ashes Tomorrow is wood Only today does the fire burn brightly
  • 61. 7/17/2013 61 Saint Francis Start by doing what's necessary Then what's possible And suddenly you are doing the impossible
  • 62. The Way Forward “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, ” Charles Darwin (1809-1882) July 17, 2013 62