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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread
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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 1.1_Anthony Whitbread

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  • 1) Increasing resilience to biophysical and socioeconomic shocks despite marginal conditions; and 2) Sustainable intensification of production systems to reduce food insecurity and generate more income.
  • 1) Increasing resilience to biophysical and socioeconomic shocks despite marginal conditions; and 2) Sustainable intensification of production systems to reduce food insecurity and generate more income.
  • 1) Increasing resilience to biophysical and socioeconomic shocks despite marginal conditions; and 2) Sustainable intensification of production systems to reduce food insecurity and generate more income.
  • 1) Increasing resilience to biophysical and socioeconomic shocks despite marginal conditions; and 2) Sustainable intensification of production systems to reduce food insecurity and generate more income.
  • Some problems with map—political sensibilities
  • Transcript

    • 1. “Dryland Systems” Key tradeoffs questions and tools for CRP1.1 Anthony M. WhitbreadCrop Production Systems in the Tropics University of Göttingen, GermanyW. Payne (ICARDA), T. Gerik (TA&M), D. White(CSIRO), P. Lecomte (UMR-SELMET), H. Belhouchette(CIHEAM-IAMM), G. Hammer (QCCA)
    • 2. Integrated Agricultural Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas “Dryland Systems”Dryland Systems targets thepoor and highly vulnerablepopulations of dry areas indeveloping countries and theagricultural productionsystems on which they dependfor food and livelihoods
    • 3. Dryland Systems- key features• 65 % of the worlds agricultural lands fall into the category of drylands• The majority of the poorest people live in semi-arid areas.• Mixed farming systems• High climate variability and, in- general, high vulnerability to changes in climate.• Already extensive degradation• Systems analysis needs
    • 4. Targets 2 Strategic Research Themes.. production systems where: Reduced vulnerability and increased resilience to shocks (SRT2) Sustainable intensification to reduce food security and generate income (SRT3)
    • 5. Conceptual Framework and Steps in Impact PathwaySRT1: Approaches and models forstrengthening innovationsystems, building stakeholderinnovation capacity, and linkingknowledge topolicy actionSRT2: Reducing vulnerability andmanaging riskSRT3: Sustainable intensificationfor more productive, profitable anddiversified dryland agriculture withwell-established linkages tomarketsSRT4: Measuring impacts andcross-regional synthesis
    • 6. Tradeoffs and scale Markets Community, watershed, region… Markets Farm, household, l ivelihood… Field, flock, forest Microbe-plant
    • 7. Key tradeoffs and tools: plant to field scale Examples • High and low harvest index (fodder, building material Vs grain) • Short duration risk avoidance Vs longer duration higher yielding • Effect of stay green traits in sorghum across environment Tools • Detailed crop models that capture interactions between environment and genotype….and phenotype e.g. Hammer et al. (2010) uses “….sufficient physiological rigour for complex phenotypic traits to become emergent properties of the model dynamics.” [Hammer et al. 2010. J. Exp. Botany 61(8), 2185-2202.] Microbe-plant
    • 8. Simulating consequences on grain yield- sorghumYield consequences reflect trends in field data (e.g. Dalby)Source: Hammer pers. comm
    • 9. Key tradeoffs and tools: Field to farm scale Examples: • Fallow weed control and consequences for soil water at sowing (& labour tradeoffs) • Quantifying the riskiness of various intervention strategies (e.g. fertiliser response x season) • Comparing decisions around crop type/variety and time of planting Tools • Crop-soil models that capture interactions between environment and genotype (e.g. APSIM, DSSAT) • Summary models that capture model output statically (e.g. IAT) • Farm level models that capture interactions (e.g. APSFARM, NUANCES)
    • 10. Effect of variations in PAW and seeding opportunity on percentage of modelled yields – South Australian wheat belt Upper tercile (white) Middle tercile (grey) Lower tercile (black)Planting opportunity: Early Late
    • 11. Fertilizer response in extra bags grain for one bag applied AN (15 kg N/ha) a bSowing window from 1 Nov 1 Dec d cPlant population (/m2) 2.0 3.5 2.0 3.5 e Weed control good poor good poor good poor good poor Soil Depth Soil fertility Shallow (50 cm) low 10 1 3 0 8 1 2 0 mod 9 3 9 1 7 3 6 1 high 7 4 8 2 5 3 5 1 Medium (100 cm) low 17 5 14 1 15 4 11 0 mod 11 6 16 5 11 7 15 5 high 9 6 14 6 8 7 13 6 Deep (>150 cm) low 16 6 17 2 15 0 15 2 mod 11 7 17 7 10 8 15 8 high 8 6 14 8 8 6 13 9 very low risk (one year in 10) medium risk (one year in 5) high risk situations
    • 12. Key tradeoffs and tools: Farm towatershed or regional scales…Examples:• Impacts of soil conservation measures (buffers, etc.) in watershed to national level erosion assessments (e.g. USDA)• Impacts of widely adopted agronomic interventions on watershed processes (e.g. Lake Tana in NW Ethiopia).Tools• SWAT-APEX-EPIC (http://swat.tamu.edu/ http://apex.tamu.edu/)• Bio-economic modelling frameworks (farm to regional) e.g. or Integrated Agricultural Assessment Tools (IAAT) (CIRAD & CIHEAM)
    • 13. • Hydrologic analysis showed sufficient water for dry season irrigation• Crop yields responded strongly to N, dry season irrigation, improved varieties• Major environmental consequences due to increased yields - reductions in soil erosion and sedimentation
    • 14. ConclusionsThis CRP has aims at agro-ecosystems where:(i) systems are highly vulnerable ….increase resilience to shocks(ii) systems where some sustainable intensification options are availableMixed (crop-livestock) farming systems are dominant and therefore key tradeoffsat field/farm level include enterprise selection/ labour/ residues/ investment/climate risk management…Tools available (defined largely by the interested partners):• pasture-tree-crop-soil modelling (CSIRO, APSRU group, Australia)• whole farm/watershed management (Texas A&M, USA)• Animal (CIRAD) and whole farm to regional economic modelling (CIHEAM- Montpellier)• Underpinned by efforts to develop research methods support (Reading University) A community of practice of model expertise underpinning many of the CRP1.1 activities.Systems analysis is not just about the tools, its also how they are applied (e.g.Whitbread et al 2010, Ag. Systems show 4 distinct modes of use in SSA)
    • 15. Dryland Systems focuses on twoagro-ecosystems (SRT2 and SRT3)

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