The digital transition 2.0  Heroes and Zeroes       Nicholas Lovell
About me
• Amazon US:  http://amzn.to/RQwAhA• Amazon UK:  http://amzn.to/R6kzHA
Subscribe to the blog!
Heroes and zeros2012
My zeroes     Zynga          From $20 billion rumoured                    valuation to less than cash     Subscription MM...
My heroesPlayStation Home   Sony’s stealth virtual world                                                     Nimblebit   ...
How did you do?                      My prediction   Your prediction   Result     Zynga                Zero             Ze...
Would you buy Zynga?Market value                      1,716.9Financial debt                      100.0Cash                ...
Would you buy Zynga?• Yes• No
Heroes and zeros2013
Epic Games“The free-to-play game isgoing to win”   - Mike Sweeney, co-founder
Epic: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
NPD        NPD’s focus          Industry future•   By territory         • Global•   Physical             • Digital•   AAA ...
NPD: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
DeNAARPDAU > $1Q2 revenues: $627 m
DeNA: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
Paymium
Unlock the true fansPRICE   Revenue        opportunity                        Marketing opportunity                       ...
Paymium: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
Windows 8 AppStore
Win8 Appstore: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
World of Warcraft• 10 million subs• Down from 12 million• Small uplift from Mists of Pandaria
World of Warcraft: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
Paid DLC• 30% of iOS/Android IAP revenue in the US comes from  transactions valued at $50• 51% comes from transactions of ...
PDLC: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
Kickstarter
Kickstarter: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
Did you agree?                       I said   You said       Epic            Hero       NPD             Zero      DeNA    ...
Thank you  Follow my blogwww.gamesbrief.com    Buy my bookshttp://amzn.to/R6kzHA
Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief
Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief
Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief
Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief
Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief
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Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief

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Transcript of "Digital Transition: The Heroes and Zeroes - Nicholas Lovell, Founder, GamesBrief "

  1. 1. The digital transition 2.0 Heroes and Zeroes Nicholas Lovell
  2. 2. About me
  3. 3. • Amazon US: http://amzn.to/RQwAhA• Amazon UK: http://amzn.to/R6kzHA
  4. 4. Subscribe to the blog!
  5. 5. Heroes and zeros2012
  6. 6. My zeroes Zynga From $20 billion rumoured valuation to less than cash Subscription MMOs The Old Republic  Handhelds 3DS below cost. PS Vita DOA  THQ 80% share price fall. Breach of debt covenants 
  7. 7. My heroesPlayStation Home Sony’s stealth virtual world  Nimblebit Apple’s game of the year 2011  Gaikai $380 million exit to Sony  Amazon AWS. Kindle. Kindle Fire. 
  8. 8. How did you do? My prediction Your prediction Result Zynga Zero Zero ZeroSubscription MMOs Zero Zero Zero Handhelds Zero Zero Zero THQ Zero Zero ZeroPlayStation Home Hero Zero Zero Nimblebit Hero Hero Hero Gaikai Hero Hero Hero Amazon Hero Hero Hero
  9. 9. Would you buy Zynga?Market value 1,716.9Financial debt 100.0Cash (394.4)Marketable securities (928.7)Long-term marketable securities (325.6)San Francisco Headquarters (274.8)Zyngas Enterprise Value (106.5)
  10. 10. Would you buy Zynga?• Yes• No
  11. 11. Heroes and zeros2013
  12. 12. Epic Games“The free-to-play game isgoing to win” - Mike Sweeney, co-founder
  13. 13. Epic: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  14. 14. NPD NPD’s focus Industry future• By territory • Global• Physical • Digital• AAA • Casual, AAA, indie…• Upfront payments • Freemium, paymium and more • Mobile, social, browser…
  15. 15. NPD: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  16. 16. DeNAARPDAU > $1Q2 revenues: $627 m
  17. 17. DeNA: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  18. 18. Paymium
  19. 19. Unlock the true fansPRICE Revenue opportunity Marketing opportunity Demand
  20. 20. Paymium: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  21. 21. Windows 8 AppStore
  22. 22. Win8 Appstore: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  23. 23. World of Warcraft• 10 million subs• Down from 12 million• Small uplift from Mists of Pandaria
  24. 24. World of Warcraft: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  25. 25. Paid DLC• 30% of iOS/Android IAP revenue in the US comes from transactions valued at $50• 51% comes from transactions of more than $20• Players don’t pay for content; they pay for database entries
  26. 26. PDLC: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  27. 27. Kickstarter
  28. 28. Kickstarter: Hero or Zero?• Hero• Zero
  29. 29. Did you agree? I said You said Epic Hero NPD Zero DeNA Hero Paymium HeroWindows 8 Appstore Zero World of Warcraft Zero Paid DLC Zero Kickstarter Hero
  30. 30. Thank you Follow my blogwww.gamesbrief.com Buy my bookshttp://amzn.to/R6kzHA
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