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Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C• One thing is sure - the earth is now more cultivated and developed than ever before. There is more farming with pure force, swamps are drying up, and cities are springing up on unprecedented scale• Weve become a burden to our planet. Resources are becoming scare, and soon nature will no longer be able to satisfy our needs. The time will ultimately come when pest, hunger, floods and war will diminish the excessive numbers of our human species. Population Dynamics 4
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Global population evolutionThe history of the global populationFor thousands of years the world population remained well below 500 million.Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed to over 7billion. Population Dynamics 5
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World Population: Time to Add Successive Billions in World Population, 1800 to 2050 Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database Population Dynamics 6
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What is Population?Number of people residing in a countryand is measured as a snapshot at aparticular timeThe two components of Population Growth• Natural Increase• Net overseas migration Population Dynamics 7
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Population in major areas,estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 Population Dynamics 8
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Estimated World-Population 1800-2100 Population Dynamics 9
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UN DESA continent population 1950 to 2100 Population Dynamics 10
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Top 10 World Most Populous Countries % of worldRank Country / Territory Population Date population 1 China 1,356,110,000 February 22, 2013 19.2% 2 India 1,210,193,422 March 2011 17% 3 United States 315,550,000 February 22, 2013 4.46% 4 Indonesia 237,641,000 May 2010 3.36% 5 Brazil 197,755,000 February 22, 2013 2.8% 6 Pakistan 182,310,000 February 22, 2013 2.58% 7 Nigeria 170,123,740 July 2012 2.41% 8 Bangladesh 161,083,804 July 2012 2.28% 9 Russia 141,927,297 January 1, 2010 2.008% 10 Japan 127,547,000 June 1, 2012 1.8% Population Dynamics 11
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Ranking of 15 Most PopulousCountries from 1970 to 2050 Population Dynamics 12
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If the World were 100 PEOPLE• 50 would be female • 83 would be able to read and 50 would be male write; 17 would not• 26 would be children • 7 would have a college degree There would be 74 adults, 8 of 22 would own or share a whom would be 65 and older computer• 60 Asians • 77 people would have a place to 15 Africans shelter them from the wind and 14 Americans the rain, but 23 would not 11 Europeans • 87 would have access to safe• 33 Christians drinking water 22 Muslims 13 people would have no clean, 14 Hindus safe water to drink 7 Buddhists 12 people who practice other religions 12 people who would not be aligned with a religion Population Dynamics 13
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Population Forecasts• Population forecasts depend on the amount and Methods type of data available • Graphical• Population forecasts also depend on the resources • Mathematical or available i.e. the amount of Logistical money that you are willing to spend • Ratio and• Forecasts are susceptible Correlation to error if for no other • Component reason that nobody knows the future • Population Densities Population Dynamics 15
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Arithmetic or Zero Orderdp/dt= KaP = P1 + Ka (t - t1)Ka = (P2-P1)/ (t2-t1)P = populationt = timeKa = arithmetic growth constant Population Dynamics 17
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Example # 1Given: Arithmetic Numerical B.) General equationCase P = P1 + Ka (t - t1)t1 = 1990, P1=110,500 P = 110,500 + 770 (t - t1990),t2 = 2000, P2=118,200 based on 1990Find: Any population and theA.) Ka corresponding year may be used:B.) General equation P = 118,200 + 770 (t - t2000),C.) Population in 2020 based on 2000 C.) Population in 2020A.) Ka P2020 =P1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)Ka = (P2-P1)/ (t2-t1) P2020 = 110,500 + 770 (2020-= (118200-110500)/(2000-1990) 1990), based on 1990= 7700/10 P2020 = 110,500 + 23,100Ka = 770 Population Dynamics = 133,600 P2020 18
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Geometric or First Orderdp/dt= KgPlnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)Kg = (lnP2-lnP1)/(t2-t1)Kg = ln(P2/P1)/(t2-t1)P = populationt = timeKg = geometric growth constantNote: lim (1+K)1/K = e = 2.718… base of the natural logarithms K 0 Population Dynamics 19
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Example # 2Given: Geometric Numerical B.) General equationCase lnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)t1 = 1990, P1=110,500 lnP = ln (110,500) + 0.00700(t-1990) lnP = 11.61+0.00700(t-1990)t2 = 2000, P2=118,200 P = e(11.61+.00700(t-1990)Find:A.) Kg Any population and the corresponding year may be used:B.) General equation C.) Population in 2020C.) Population in 2020 lnP2020 =lnP1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)A.) Kg lnP = 11.61 + 0.00700(2020-1990) Kg = ln(P2)-ln(P1)/(t2-t1) = 11.61 + 0.21 lnP = 11.82= ln(P2/P1)/(t2-t1) P2020 = e 11.82=(ln1182000-ln110500)/(2000-1990) P2020 = 135,944= 0.07/10Kg = 0.00700 Population Dynamics 20
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Ratio and Correlation Method• Assumes that the population Formulas growth rate of any given community can be related to P2/P2R = P1/P1R = KR a larger region, i.e. county, state.• Use of the appropriate scale P2 = Projected population factor allows correlation P2R = Projected population in the larger region P1 = Population at last census for the projected region P1R = Population at last census for the projected region in the larger region KR = ratio or correlation constant Population Dynamics 21
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Component MethodBased on the detailedanalysis of thecomponents that makeup population growth:• Natural increase, births over deaths• Migration whose accurate determination is extremely complex Population Dynamics 22
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Population Densities• Zoning Categories (Typical, vary by community)• "Fly", survey the town to gather Zoning Category Density (persons/acre) topographical, physical data. Consult the community planning Residential - single 5-35• entity and determine the zoning Residential - multiple 30-100 plan. Apartments 100-1000• Combine the zoning and physical data. Commercial 15-30• Measure the number of acres in Industrial 5-15 each zoning category. Multiply the acreage by the density. Open 0 Total the results which is the current population if existing acreage is used or the saturation population if all the land is considered. Population Dynamics 23
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Example # 3Given: You have overflown a city, Find: The populationidentified the zoningcompositions and plain meteredthe areas with the followingresult: Zoning Area (acres) Usage Pop Category (people/acre) Zoning Category Area(acres) Residential 457 20 9,140 Residential - single 457 - single Residential - 112 Residential 112 65 7,280 multiple - multiple Apartments 3 Apartments 3 550 1,650 Commercial 87 Commercial 87 22.5 1,958 Industrial 22 Industrial 22 10 220 Open 176 Open 176 0 0 TOTAL 20,248 Population Dynamics 24
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Assignment # 2 Due Date: 4 th March,2013Given: Arithmetic Numerical Given: Geometric NumericalCase Caset1 = 2000, P1=150,000 t1 = 2000, P1=150,000t2 = 2010, P2=178,200 t2 = 2010, P2=178,200Find: Find:A.) Ka A.) KgB.) General equation B.) General equationC.) Population in 2020, 2030 and C.) Population in 2020, 2030 and2050 2050Note: The assignment should behandwritten and submittedindividually Population Dynamics 25
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Pakistan’s Population Rank Order in the WorldYear Rank Population (Million)1950 14 33.02009 6 169Net Addition in Population BIRTHS DEATHS ADDITIONIn One Year 4.2M 1.3M 2.9MOne Month 350,833 110,000 240,833 One Day 11,534 3,616 7,918One Minute 8 Population Dynamics 3 5 27
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Pakistan Population Policy 2010 Population Dynamics 28