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Early Warning System


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  • 1. Early Warning Systems
  • 2. Thought of the Day• Tie the knot…… and leave it at God’s WillHadithEarly Warning Systems 2
  • 3. TermsAdaptationActions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope withchanging climate conditionsCapacity buildingProcess of developing the technical skills, institutional capability, andpersonnel.CycloneAn atmospheric closed circulation rotating counterclockwise in theNorthern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.EarthquakesEarthquakes are due to a sudden release of stresses accumulatedaround the faults in the Earth’s crust. This energy is released throughseismic waves that travel from the origin zone, which cause the groundto shake. Severe earthquakes can affect buildings and populations.Early Warning Systems 3
  • 4. TermsDeforestationThe direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forestedland.DroughtsA period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lackof water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area.False AlarmIn the context of Early Warning Systems, a false alarm is defined as thesituation in which an alarm is activated when it should not have been.FloodsAn overflow of water onto normally dry land. Floods are oftentriggered by severe storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes.Early Warning Systems 4
  • 5. TermsMissed AlarmIn the context of Early Warning Systems, a missed alarm is defined asthe situation in which an alarm is not activated when it should havebeen.MitigationThe lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards andrelated disasters.TsunamiA tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by suddendisplacements in the sea floor, landslides, or volcanic activity.Volcanic eruptionsVolcanic eruptions may be mild, releasing steam and gases or lavaflows, or they can be violent explosions that release ashes and gasesinto the atmosphere.Early Warning Systems 5
  • 6. The Hyogo Framework for ActionThe Hyogo Framework for Action (ISDR 2005), which wasadopted by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction inHyogo, Japan in 2005, identified five priority areas:1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a national andlocal priority with a strong institution basis forimplementation;2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhanceearly warning;3. Better knowledge management for building a culture ofsafety;4. Reducing the underlying risk factors; and5. Enhance preparedness for an effective responseEarly Warning Systems 6
  • 7. MonitoringEarly Warning Systems 7
  • 8. Earth ObservationEarth Observation, throughmeasuring and monitoring,provides an insight andunderstanding into Earth’scomplex processes andchanges. EO includemeasurements that can bemade directly or by sensors in-situ or remotely (i.e. satelliteremote sensing, aerial surveys,land or ocean-basedmonitoring systems) to providekey information to models orother tools to support decisionmaking processes.Early Warning Systems 8
  • 9. Early Warning SystemThe set of capacities neededto generate and disseminatetimely and meaningfulwarning information toenable individuals,communities andorganizations threatened bya hazard to prepare and toact appropriately and insufficient time to reduce thepossibility of harm or loss.Early Warning Systems 9
  • 10. Effective Early Warning Systems• extending the lead time ofwarnings• improving the accuracy ofwarnings• greater demand for probabilisticforecasts• better communication anddissemination of warnings• using new techniques to alert thepublic• targeting of the warning servicesto relevant and specific users(right information to right peopleat right time and right place)• warning messages areunderstood and the appropriateaction taken in response.Early Warning Systems 10
  • 11. Prerequisites for an Effective WarningServiceFocus on the User• Identify the users• The hazards community• Weather-sensitiveeconomic sectors• Media (print, radio, TVand others)• The publicEarly Warning Systems 11
  • 12. Effective Warning Program• Receive the warning• Understand theinformation presented• Believe the information• Personalize theinformation• Make correct decisions• Respond in a timelymannerEarly Warning Systems 12
  • 13. People Centered Early WarningSystems• Risk Knowledge• Monitoring andWarning Service• Dissemination andCommunication• Response CapabilityEarly Warning Systems 13
  • 14. MeteoalarmsEarly Warning Systems 14
  • 15. MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence forthe heat waveEarly Warning Systems 15
  • 16. Adapting Good Practices in EWS inDeveloping CountriesNowcasting• capacity to providenowcasts• forecasts for thefollowing few hours• analysis andextrapolation ofweather systems• observed on radar,satellites and in situsensorsT+60 minute thunderstormnowcasting generated byBJANC (WMO 2010)Early Warning Systems 16
  • 17. Existing Early Warning Systems• Tsunami• Wildfires• El Niño phenomenon• Desert locust plague• Landslides• Floods/Urban flash floods• Drought and famine• Volcanic eruption• Typhoons and hurricanes• EarthquakesEarly Warning Systems 17
  • 18. Timeliness of Early Warning SystemsEarly Warning Systems 18
  • 19. Environmental Impact AssessmentEarly Warning Systems 19
  • 20. Implementation PlanEarly Warning Systems 20
  • 21. Effective WarningEarly Warning Systems 21
  • 22. Institutional Design Option for GovernmentProvision of Early WarningEarly Warning Systems 22
  • 23. Japan’s Early Warning System• Japan invested in public alert systemafter 1995, 6.9 Kobe earthquake• Seven years and $500 million later,Japan unveiled worlds first earlywarning network.• The Japanese got their big test inMarch when a massive quake hit offthe northeast coast and spawned atsunami.• A public emergency announcementwas sent out eight seconds aftersensors detected the first inkling ofthe quake, interrupting regular TVand radio programming, and buzzingcell phones.• Millions received 5 to 40seconds of warningdepending on how far theywere from the epicenter.Tokyo — about 230 milesaway — got about 10 to 30seconds of notice beforehigh-rises swayed.A dozen trains werestopped in their trackswithout derailing.Japanese early warningsystem saved thousands oflives.Early Warning Systems 23
  • 24. Earthquake Tsunami Warning System• new earthquake alertsystem• ocean-based tsunamiwarning systemEarly Warning Systems 24
  • 25. Examples of Response to anEarthquake Early WarningEarly Warning Systems 25
  • 26. Limitations of the Earthquake EarlyWarning• TimingFrom seconds to tens of seconds• False alarms• Magnitude estimation• Seismic intensityestimationEarly Warning Systems 26
  • 27. LandslidesEarly Warning Systems 27
  • 28. LandslidesEarly Warning Systems 28
  • 29. LandslidesEarly Warning Systems 29
  • 30. Flood Warning SystemEarly Warning Systems 30
  • 31. Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM)Early Warning Systems 31
  • 32. Deep-ocean Assessment andReporting of Tsunamis (DART)Early Warning Systems 32
  • 33. WildfiresEarly Warning Systems 33
  • 34. Famine in Africa• The crisis had been predictedover a year before, and manydedicated professionals did asmuch as they could to persuadetheir agencies and others torespond in order to prevent theworst of the crisis, but too littlewas done too late.• First things first. The mostfundamental duty of anygovernment is to provide itscitizens with basic protectionfrom physical threat and extremedeprivation, whether from war,criminal violence, or naturaldisaster. Everything else shouldcome second.• The experience of Somalia is astark demonstration of thestrengths and limits of theinternational humanitariancommunity to mobilize for earlyaction based on early warninginformation.Early Warning Systems 34
  • 35. Early Warning Systems 35
  • 36. Human Health Consequences ofClimate Change1. Asthma, Respiratory Allergies, andAirway Diseases2. Cancer3. Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke4. Foodborne Diseases and Nutrition5. Heat-Related Morbidity andMortality6. Human Developmental Effects7. Mental Health and Stress-RelatedDisorders8. Neurological Diseases andDisorders9. Vectorborne and Zoonotic Diseases10. Waterborne Diseases11. Weather-Related Morbidity andMortalityEarly Warning Systems 36
  • 37. What are future global shocks?• a rapid onset event with severely disruptiveconsequences covering at least twocontinents.Early Warning Systems 37
  • 38. Critical InfrastructureInterdependanciesEarly Warning Systems 38
  • 39. Global ShocksEarly Warning Systems 39
  • 40. Key Capacities for Governance ofFuture Global ShocksEarly Warning Systems 40
  • 41. Global Public Health IntelligenceNetwork (GPHIN)• The prototype GPHINsystem was developed in1997 in partnership withthe World HealthOrganization (WHO)• GPHINs mission is to be anindispensable source ofearly warning for potentialpublic health threatsworldwide includingchemical, biological,radiological and nuclear(CBRN).Early Warning Systems 41
  • 42. Global Public Health IntelligenceNetwork (GPHIN)• Animal Diseases• Human diseases• Plant diseases• Biologics• Natural disasters• Chemical incidents• Radioactive incidents• Unsafe productsEarly Warning Systems 42
  • 43. Global Environmental Burden ofDiseaseEarly Warning Systems 43
  • 44. Thank YouEarly Warning Systems 44