LSS ‘Big Trends’ 2013 Edition

Greg Sterling
19 November, 2013
A Q u ic k L o o k a t L a s t Ye a
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Continued momentum of mobile and “decline” of the PC
Growth o...
To p 1 0 T h is Ye a r
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Rise of mobile-only and mainly mobile users
Mobile colonizing local
Vertical mar...
S till th e D o m in a n t S to ry
Mobile and its impact on
the local and social
sectors continues to be
the big story of ...
C a tc h in g U p to W o rld P o p u
7.1 billion people in the
world*, 6.6 billion
“mobile subscriptions”
today**
37% of g...
N e a rly 6 B S m a rtp h o n e s b y

** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)
S m a rtp h o n e s : 7 0 % b y 2 0

53% to 66%
penetration
across ‘EU5’
Nearly 140 million
people

62%+ smartphone
penetr...
A g g re s s iv e P ric in g = P e n e t
Moto G: a premium
smartphone for

£135, $179, €132

Amazon will release an
inexpe...
Mobile Only/Mobile First
‘G e n e ra tio n M ’
• 50% of teen smartphone owners
(12-17) use the internet mostly on
their mobiles

• 45% of young adu...
M u ltis c re e n U s a g e P a tte

“Smartphones are the backbone of [ ] daily media use. They are the
devices used most ...
M o re M o b ile T im e S p e n
US internet time spent via mobile devices in May
exceeded internet time spent on the PC (4...
Mobile Eats Local
M o b ile Tra ffic : 2 0 %
100

Global Internet Traffic

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Source: StatCounter (November 2013)...
L o c a l n o t E a tin g M o b ile
• Assumption (esp. ad forecasts) that
local to dominate/define mobile
• So far it’s th...
M o b ile C o lo n iz in g L o c a
• 59% of searches on Yelp are from mobile
• 40% to 50% of search/lookups on various
YP ...
Rise of ‘Local Commerce’ or
‘E-commercification of Local’
V e rtic a l o r N ic h e M a rk e t
• Car sharing/ride apps
• Made possible by mobile
• Generally two-sided
marketplaces
...
Online Booking, Offline Fulfillment
• Older:
- Tickets/events
- Restaurant reservations
- Travel

• Newer:
- Groupon
- Oth...
Bifurcation: Winner Take All & Perennial
Insurgents
B ig B ra n d s v s . N ic h e P la y
In s u rg e n ts A tta c k

Source: Andrew Parker, 2010
F a c e b o o k v s . C o m p e tito r
Search Free Local Search
D a ta : P u s h + P e rs o n a liz a t

Using social + offline data to offer
recommendations or personalization

Real wor...
Real-World Analytics
O2O Sales: 10X EC
E-commerce
Retail + services
(2012):
(2012):
US$186
US$7.3 Trillion
billion
Online-toOffline (2012):
US$...
C lic k s a B a d M e tric
For display ads:
• CTR became de-facto currency for
performance-based ads (because
trackable)
•...
M o b ile ’s M is s in g R O I
Marketers not seeing mobile “conversions” …
because they happen offline

PC:
3.3%

Tablet:
...
‘Estimated Total Conversions’
Through signed-in Chrome users, Google will determine cross-device and
offline conversions

...
S e e k in g t o ‘C lo s e L o o p ’
• Proxy metrics: calls/map look-ups
• Coupons (challenges at the
register)
• Check-in...
Indoor Location
R a n g e o f In d o o r L o c a tio n
Cameras

 Buyers
Seeking

WiFi

Accuracy

Source: Opus Research (2013)

Bluetooth
4...
P h a s e s o f M a rk e t D e v e lo p
• Venue mapping (extension of outdoor)
• Retailer/B2B analytics (sales, operations...
Wearables
S m a rt/ C o n n e c te d D e v ic e
H e re b u t N o t M a in s tre a m
• No experience: More than 80% of US smartphone
owners had no direct experience with G...
Privacy
P riv a c y : lé
O
Bonus Round
• Smarter use of location (incl. geo-conquesting) by
mobile advertisers
• Increasing merger of online and offl...
M e A g a in

Follow or Contact Me

Greg Sterling greg.sterling@gmail.
com
Twitter.com/gsterling
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Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition. Greg Sterling.

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Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition
Greg Sterling revisit the top 10 trends for local and mobile for next year and beyond: big data, mobile migration, social discovery, personal assistants, indoor location and more.

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Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition. Greg Sterling.

  1. 1. LSS ‘Big Trends’ 2013 Edition Greg Sterling 19 November, 2013
  2. 2. A Q u ic k L o o k a t L a s t Ye a • • • • • • • • • • • • Continued momentum of mobile and “decline” of the PC Growth of tablets (and emergence of smaller tablets) Rise of multi-screen consumer Mobile shopping and ‘showrooming’ Mobile payments – not quite there yet Bursting of the deals “bubble” Decline of Facebook? Fragmentation of search, growth of apps and “assistants” Slow merchant response (brands, SMBs) to consumer changes SMB confusion amid market complexity Novel uses for location data (proxy for audiences) Indoor location, “turn by turn” directions
  3. 3. To p 1 0 T h is Ye a r • • • • • • • • • Rise of mobile-only and mainly mobile users Mobile colonizing local Vertical marketplaces and “e-commercification of local services” (incl. mobile payments) Market bifurcation: “winner take all” yet perennial insurgents Search-free local search: virtual assistants and data-driven local recommendations Real-world analytics Indoor location SMB confusion/market complexity Wearables Last but not least . . . privacy
  4. 4. S till th e D o m in a n t S to ry Mobile and its impact on the local and social sectors continues to be the big story of 2013 (and 2014)
  5. 5. C a tc h in g U p to W o rld P o p u 7.1 billion people in the world*, 6.6 billion “mobile subscriptions” today** 37% of global population in China and India *US Census Bureau estimate (2013) ** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)
  6. 6. N e a rly 6 B S m a rtp h o n e s b y ** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)
  7. 7. S m a rtp h o n e s : 7 0 % b y 2 0 53% to 66% penetration across ‘EU5’ Nearly 140 million people 62%+ smartphone penetration Nearly 150 million people Figures higher for those under 35 Source: Nielsen (Q3 2013) comScore (Q1 2013), Pew Research Center, Opus Research (2013)
  8. 8. A g g re s s iv e P ric in g = P e n e t Moto G: a premium smartphone for £135, $179, €132 Amazon will release an inexpensive/subsidized smartphone
  9. 9. Mobile Only/Mobile First
  10. 10. ‘G e n e ra tio n M ’ • 50% of teen smartphone owners (12-17) use the internet mostly on their mobiles • 45% of young adults (18-29) reported in 2012 that they mostly go online with mobile • 46% of survey respondents said they relied exclusively on smartphones or tablets in conducting online research across a range of local purchase categories Source: 2012, 2013 Pew Research Center reports on “Teens and Technology”; Nielsen-xAd-Telmetrics (2013)
  11. 11. M u ltis c re e n U s a g e P a tte “Smartphones are the backbone of [ ] daily media use. They are the devices used most throughout the day and serve as the most common starting point for activities across multiple screens.” Source: Google-IPSOS Q2 2013, n=1,600 US adults
  12. 12. M o re M o b ile T im e S p e n US internet time spent via mobile devices in May exceeded internet time spent on the PC (477 billion minutes vs. 481 billion) Source: comScore (May 2013)
  13. 13. Mobile Eats Local
  14. 14. M o b ile Tra ffic : 2 0 % 100 Global Internet Traffic 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: StatCounter (November 2013) Desktop Mobile
  15. 15. L o c a l n o t E a tin g M o b ile • Assumption (esp. ad forecasts) that local to dominate/define mobile • So far it’s the other way around
  16. 16. M o b ile C o lo n iz in g L o c a • 59% of searches on Yelp are from mobile • 40% to 50% of search/lookups on various YP sites are from mobile (globally) • Nearly 50% of Groupon transactions in Q2 (North America) came from mobile • Google Maps has more mobile than PC users (as of Q4 2012) Source: public filings, company data
  17. 17. Rise of ‘Local Commerce’ or ‘E-commercification of Local’
  18. 18. V e rtic a l o r N ic h e M a rk e t • Car sharing/ride apps • Made possible by mobile • Generally two-sided marketplaces • Offer car sharing or inventory mgmt for drivers • Convenience and/or efficiency for consumers The power of limits: often mobile is preferred experience because it’s simpler, more streamlined
  19. 19. Online Booking, Offline Fulfillment • Older: - Tickets/events - Restaurant reservations - Travel • Newer: - Groupon - Others: Seamless, Yelp, Uber, Hailo, MyTime, Square/PayPal, OpenTable/Top Table
  20. 20. Bifurcation: Winner Take All & Perennial Insurgents
  21. 21. B ig B ra n d s v s . N ic h e P la y
  22. 22. In s u rg e n ts A tta c k Source: Andrew Parker, 2010
  23. 23. F a c e b o o k v s . C o m p e tito r
  24. 24. Search Free Local Search
  25. 25. D a ta : P u s h + P e rs o n a liz a t Using social + offline data to offer recommendations or personalization Real world provides context and more data Virtual assistants: learning and pushing information based on behavior and context
  26. 26. Real-World Analytics
  27. 27. O2O Sales: 10X EC E-commerce Retail + services (2012): (2012): US$186 US$7.3 Trillion billion Online-toOffline (2012): US$1.83 Trillion Source: comScore, US Commerce Department, Opus Research estimates
  28. 28. C lic k s a B a d M e tric For display ads: • CTR became de-facto currency for performance-based ads (because trackable) • Don’t reflect real value of digital ads • comScore (2012): Clicks had lowest correlation (0.01) with conversion vs other metrics • Nielsen (2011): CTR “showed no connection” to actual offline sales lift
  29. 29. M o b ile ’s M is s in g R O I Marketers not seeing mobile “conversions” … because they happen offline PC: 3.3% Tablet: 2.2% Source: various SEM platform and industry reports from Q2, Q3 (US data) Smartphone: 0.7%
  30. 30. ‘Estimated Total Conversions’ Through signed-in Chrome users, Google will determine cross-device and offline conversions Source: Google (Q3 2013)
  31. 31. S e e k in g t o ‘C lo s e L o o p ’ • Proxy metrics: calls/map look-ups • Coupons (challenges at the register) • Check-ins, scanning QR codes instore/at POS • Mobile wallets/in-store payments • Data partnerships: Facebook, Twitter & Datalogix (offline loyalty cards)
  32. 32. Indoor Location
  33. 33. R a n g e o f In d o o r L o c a tio n Cameras  Buyers Seeking WiFi Accuracy Source: Opus Research (2013) Bluetooth 4.0 Ubiquity RFID Magnetic Cost LED Lighting Speed to implement Sound/Aco ustic Privacy
  34. 34. P h a s e s o f M a rk e t D e v e lo p • Venue mapping (extension of outdoor) • Retailer/B2B analytics (sales, operations, staffing) • Offline ROI/ad impact tracking • Enhanced in-store consumer experience • In-store digital advertising/indoor marketing
  35. 35. Wearables
  36. 36. S m a rt/ C o n n e c te d D e v ic e
  37. 37. H e re b u t N o t M a in s tre a m • No experience: More than 80% of US smartphone owners had no direct experience with Google Glass, smartwatches or fitness wristbands • But demand/interest exits: - Glass: roughly half under 43 interested or willing to consider Google Glass if more conventional designs became available - Smartwatches: More than 40% under 53 w/o one said they were interested: 1) Samsung, 2) Apple, 3) Google (corresponding to phone ownership) - Report: Only 50K Galaxy Gear watches sold Source: August 2013 survey of more than 1,100 US adult smartphone owners, BusinessKorea
  38. 38. Privacy
  39. 39. P riv a c y : lé O
  40. 40. Bonus Round • Smarter use of location (incl. geo-conquesting) by mobile advertisers • Increasing merger of online and offline data sets (can the humans make sense of it all?) • Return of mapping competition: - HERE (one of the surviving parts of Nokia) - Facebook? - Waze (part of Google) - Apple Maps stablizing - Google Maps slipping
  41. 41. M e A g a in Follow or Contact Me Greg Sterling greg.sterling@gmail. com Twitter.com/gsterling
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