Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition. Greg Sterling.
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition. Greg Sterling.

on

  • 289 views

Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition ...

Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition
Greg Sterling revisit the top 10 trends for local and mobile for next year and beyond: big data, mobile migration, social discovery, personal assistants, indoor location and more.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
289
Slideshare-icon Views on SlideShare
239
Embed Views
50

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0

1 Embed 50

http://localsocialsummit.com 50

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition. Greg Sterling. Opening Keynote: Big Trends Overview - 2013 Edition. Greg Sterling. Presentation Transcript

    • LSS ‘Big Trends’ 2013 Edition Greg Sterling 19 November, 2013
    • A Q u ic k L o o k a t L a s t Ye a • • • • • • • • • • • • Continued momentum of mobile and “decline” of the PC Growth of tablets (and emergence of smaller tablets) Rise of multi-screen consumer Mobile shopping and ‘showrooming’ Mobile payments – not quite there yet Bursting of the deals “bubble” Decline of Facebook? Fragmentation of search, growth of apps and “assistants” Slow merchant response (brands, SMBs) to consumer changes SMB confusion amid market complexity Novel uses for location data (proxy for audiences) Indoor location, “turn by turn” directions
    • To p 1 0 T h is Ye a r • • • • • • • • • Rise of mobile-only and mainly mobile users Mobile colonizing local Vertical marketplaces and “e-commercification of local services” (incl. mobile payments) Market bifurcation: “winner take all” yet perennial insurgents Search-free local search: virtual assistants and data-driven local recommendations Real-world analytics Indoor location SMB confusion/market complexity Wearables Last but not least . . . privacy
    • S till th e D o m in a n t S to ry Mobile and its impact on the local and social sectors continues to be the big story of 2013 (and 2014)
    • C a tc h in g U p to W o rld P o p u 7.1 billion people in the world*, 6.6 billion “mobile subscriptions” today** 37% of global population in China and India *US Census Bureau estimate (2013) ** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)
    • N e a rly 6 B S m a rtp h o n e s b y ** Ericsson Mobility Report, (November, 2013)
    • S m a rtp h o n e s : 7 0 % b y 2 0 53% to 66% penetration across ‘EU5’ Nearly 140 million people 62%+ smartphone penetration Nearly 150 million people Figures higher for those under 35 Source: Nielsen (Q3 2013) comScore (Q1 2013), Pew Research Center, Opus Research (2013)
    • A g g re s s iv e P ric in g = P e n e t Moto G: a premium smartphone for £135, $179, €132 Amazon will release an inexpensive/subsidized smartphone
    • Mobile Only/Mobile First
    • ‘G e n e ra tio n M ’ • 50% of teen smartphone owners (12-17) use the internet mostly on their mobiles • 45% of young adults (18-29) reported in 2012 that they mostly go online with mobile • 46% of survey respondents said they relied exclusively on smartphones or tablets in conducting online research across a range of local purchase categories Source: 2012, 2013 Pew Research Center reports on “Teens and Technology”; Nielsen-xAd-Telmetrics (2013)
    • M u ltis c re e n U s a g e P a tte “Smartphones are the backbone of [ ] daily media use. They are the devices used most throughout the day and serve as the most common starting point for activities across multiple screens.” Source: Google-IPSOS Q2 2013, n=1,600 US adults
    • M o re M o b ile T im e S p e n US internet time spent via mobile devices in May exceeded internet time spent on the PC (477 billion minutes vs. 481 billion) Source: comScore (May 2013)
    • Mobile Eats Local
    • M o b ile Tra ffic : 2 0 % 100 Global Internet Traffic 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: StatCounter (November 2013) Desktop Mobile
    • L o c a l n o t E a tin g M o b ile • Assumption (esp. ad forecasts) that local to dominate/define mobile • So far it’s the other way around
    • M o b ile C o lo n iz in g L o c a • 59% of searches on Yelp are from mobile • 40% to 50% of search/lookups on various YP sites are from mobile (globally) • Nearly 50% of Groupon transactions in Q2 (North America) came from mobile • Google Maps has more mobile than PC users (as of Q4 2012) Source: public filings, company data
    • Rise of ‘Local Commerce’ or ‘E-commercification of Local’
    • V e rtic a l o r N ic h e M a rk e t • Car sharing/ride apps • Made possible by mobile • Generally two-sided marketplaces • Offer car sharing or inventory mgmt for drivers • Convenience and/or efficiency for consumers The power of limits: often mobile is preferred experience because it’s simpler, more streamlined
    • Online Booking, Offline Fulfillment • Older: - Tickets/events - Restaurant reservations - Travel • Newer: - Groupon - Others: Seamless, Yelp, Uber, Hailo, MyTime, Square/PayPal, OpenTable/Top Table
    • Bifurcation: Winner Take All & Perennial Insurgents
    • B ig B ra n d s v s . N ic h e P la y
    • In s u rg e n ts A tta c k Source: Andrew Parker, 2010
    • F a c e b o o k v s . C o m p e tito r
    • Search Free Local Search
    • D a ta : P u s h + P e rs o n a liz a t Using social + offline data to offer recommendations or personalization Real world provides context and more data Virtual assistants: learning and pushing information based on behavior and context
    • Real-World Analytics
    • O2O Sales: 10X EC E-commerce Retail + services (2012): (2012): US$186 US$7.3 Trillion billion Online-toOffline (2012): US$1.83 Trillion Source: comScore, US Commerce Department, Opus Research estimates
    • C lic k s a B a d M e tric For display ads: • CTR became de-facto currency for performance-based ads (because trackable) • Don’t reflect real value of digital ads • comScore (2012): Clicks had lowest correlation (0.01) with conversion vs other metrics • Nielsen (2011): CTR “showed no connection” to actual offline sales lift
    • M o b ile ’s M is s in g R O I Marketers not seeing mobile “conversions” … because they happen offline PC: 3.3% Tablet: 2.2% Source: various SEM platform and industry reports from Q2, Q3 (US data) Smartphone: 0.7%
    • ‘Estimated Total Conversions’ Through signed-in Chrome users, Google will determine cross-device and offline conversions Source: Google (Q3 2013)
    • S e e k in g t o ‘C lo s e L o o p ’ • Proxy metrics: calls/map look-ups • Coupons (challenges at the register) • Check-ins, scanning QR codes instore/at POS • Mobile wallets/in-store payments • Data partnerships: Facebook, Twitter & Datalogix (offline loyalty cards)
    • Indoor Location
    • R a n g e o f In d o o r L o c a tio n Cameras  Buyers Seeking WiFi Accuracy Source: Opus Research (2013) Bluetooth 4.0 Ubiquity RFID Magnetic Cost LED Lighting Speed to implement Sound/Aco ustic Privacy
    • P h a s e s o f M a rk e t D e v e lo p • Venue mapping (extension of outdoor) • Retailer/B2B analytics (sales, operations, staffing) • Offline ROI/ad impact tracking • Enhanced in-store consumer experience • In-store digital advertising/indoor marketing
    • Wearables
    • S m a rt/ C o n n e c te d D e v ic e
    • H e re b u t N o t M a in s tre a m • No experience: More than 80% of US smartphone owners had no direct experience with Google Glass, smartwatches or fitness wristbands • But demand/interest exits: - Glass: roughly half under 43 interested or willing to consider Google Glass if more conventional designs became available - Smartwatches: More than 40% under 53 w/o one said they were interested: 1) Samsung, 2) Apple, 3) Google (corresponding to phone ownership) - Report: Only 50K Galaxy Gear watches sold Source: August 2013 survey of more than 1,100 US adult smartphone owners, BusinessKorea
    • Privacy
    • P riv a c y : lé O
    • Bonus Round • Smarter use of location (incl. geo-conquesting) by mobile advertisers • Increasing merger of online and offline data sets (can the humans make sense of it all?) • Return of mapping competition: - HERE (one of the surviving parts of Nokia) - Facebook? - Waze (part of Google) - Apple Maps stablizing - Google Maps slipping
    • M e A g a in Follow or Contact Me Greg Sterling greg.sterling@gmail. com Twitter.com/gsterling