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community health index
for online communities
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contents




        1	        executive summary
        2	intro
        3	        defining health factors for online communities
        5	        using community health factors to drive action
        7	        using the community health index as a community standard
        11	conclusion
        12	       defining the CHI health factors
        15	       computing the community health index




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                                                                                                                     SocialMatters




we help companies unlock the passion of their customers.
The Lithium Social Customer Suite allows brands to build vibrant customer communities that:


  reduce service costs with              grow brand advocay with        drive sales with                   innovate faster with
  social support                         social marketing               social commerce                    social innovation


lithium.com | © 2012 Lithium Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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executive summary




   In the current economic climate, companies are discovering that   By analyzing hundreds of metrics from communities of
   their online communities have become a powerful and cost-         varying types, sizes, and ages, we identified the diagnostic and
   effective vehicle for interacting with customers. For example,    predictive metrics that most accurately represent key attributes
   a consumer electronics community that runs on the Lithium         of a healthy community: growth, useful content, popularity,
   platform recently reported 1.4 million deflected support calls,   responsiveness, interactivity, and liveliness. Although we
   resulting in an annual estimated savings of $10 million.          uncovered other metrics that proved to be even more predictive
                                                                     of community health, the ones we selected as the basis for
   Savings like these have clearly transformed online customer
                                                                     calculating the Community Health Index are readily available
   communities into vital enterprise assets, which makes
                                                                     for most online communities across the industry.
   monitoring their health increasingly important to corporate
   wellbeing. However, until now there has been no simple,           Smoothed and normalized for community purpose, size,
   common way to do so effectively, no standard by which to          and age, the Community Health Index provides a single
   evaluate or take action on the myriad of metrics used to          representation of community health. Deconstructed, its
   capture every aspect of community activity and performance.       constituent health factors enable community managers to take
   Imagine a discussion of credit-worthiness before the              specific action and measure the results. This paper describes
   introduction of the FICO® score.                                  these health factors and explains how to use them to calculate
                                                                     a Community Health Index. Although the source community
   Lithium, the leading provider of Social Customer solutions
                                                                     data is proprietary, Lithium freely offers the results of our
   that deliver real business results, offers a solution. Lithium
                                                                     research toward a common standard for the industry.
   has recently completed a detailed, time-series analysis of
   up to a decade’s worth of proprietary data that represents
   billions of actions, millions of users, and scores of
   communities. This research, coupled with our acknowledged
   expertise in planning, deploying, and managing customer
   communities, enabled us to identify and calculate key factors
   that contribute to a new standard for measuring community
   health: the Community Health Index.




                                                                                                                                                1
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intro




   Online customer communities have come a long way in the           Community Health Index. The development of the Community
   thirty years since a handful of hobbyists posted messages on      Health Index is based on data aggregated from a wide range
   the first public bulletin boards. For an increasing number of     of communities representing more than 15 billion actions
   companies, they have become an important tool for engaging        and 6 million users. In order to make it universally applicable,
   with their customers and driving sales.                           the Community Health Index is normalized for community
                                                                     purpose, size, and age.
   In a recent study published in the Harvard Business Review,
   researchers found that community participants at an online        Like a low FICO score or high BMI, a low Community Health
   auction site both bought and sold more, generating on             Index value points to the need for a change in behavior. And,
   average 56% more in sales than non-community users.               like the components of standardized tests, deconstruction
   This increased activity translated into several million dollars   of the Community Health Index into specific health factors
   in profit over the course of a year. Likewise, a community        points to specific areas within the community that require
   running on the Lithium platform recently reported both a 41%      corrective action. This deconstruction even extends to
   increase in sales by community members and an $8 million          different levels within a community, where we can identify the
   savings in support costs.                                         less healthy subdivisions and the conditions that are affecting
                                                                     their health. With information such as this, a company can
   Results such as these demonstrate the return on investment
                                                                     target its efforts and resources to make the specific changes
   for healthy and successful communities: customers are
                                                                     most likely to further improve the community’s health.
   getting what they need from the communities, which, in turn,
   allows the communities to meet the goals of the companies         In the spirit of Mr. Fair and Mr. Isaac, the National Institutes of
   that sponsor them. The ROI that online communities                Health, and generations of high school English teachers, we
   are capable of delivering makes it all the more essential         offer the Community Health Index as an open measurement
   that companies be able to measure the health of their             for community health.
   communities and take action to keep them healthy.

   Measurement, however, has proved to be a challenge because
   of the missing component: a single industry standard—like
   the FICO score, Body-Mass Index, or standardized test scores,
   for example—that allows communities to gauge their health
   in absolute objective terms. As the result of a massive data
   analysis project, Lithium has developed such a standard, the


                                                                                                                                               2
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defining health
factors for online
communities



   Good health and good sense are two of life’s                      The characteristics of healthy communities and their
   greatest blessings.                                               corresponding health factors are:
                                -Publius Syrus, Maxim 827
                                                                     Growing = Members. After an initial surge of registrations
   Health in an online customer community, like health in            characteristic of a newly-launched community, membership
   an individual, is spread across a broad spectrum. And as          in a healthy community continues to grow. Although mature
   Charles Atlas and the 97-pound weakling illustrate, some          communities typically experience a slower rate of growth,
   communities are stronger and healthier than others. But,          they still add new members as the company’s customer base
   no matter how good we look or how robust we feel at the           grows. The traditional method for measuring membership is
   moment, there is always room for improvement.                     the registration count.1

   Humans enjoy the benefit of sophisticated diagnostic and          Useful = Content. A critical mass of content posted on an
   preventive medicine, which tells us where we need to              online community is clearly one of its strongest attractions to
   improve. In order to get the most out of online communities,      both members and casual visitors. In support communities,
   we need similar diagnostics to help us make better use of the     the content enables participants to arrive at a general
   data currently available for measuring community activity and     understanding or get answers to specific questions. In
   performance. Armed with the right data and with standards         engagement (enthusiast or marketing) communities, it serves
   that allow us to evaluate that data objectively, we can then      as a magnet to attract and engage members. In listening
   formulate a plan for improving community health.                  communities, the content posted by community members
                                                                     gives the company valuable input from the customers who
   Based on our continuous engagement with successful online         use their products or services.
   communities, we were able to identify a common set of
   characteristics shared by healthy communities of all types,       A steady infusion of useful content, then, is essential to the
   sizes, and ages: they are growing, useful, popular, responsive,   health of a community.2 The traditional metric for measuring
   interactive, lively, and positive. Furthermore, analysis of the   content is number of posts. This metric alone, however, gives
   vast body of data available to us allowed us to then define       no indication of the usefulness of the content, especially in
   specific health factors that most accurately represent            communities that do not use content rating or tagging. In
   each characteristic.                                              order to model content usefulness instead of sheer bulk, we
                                                                     consider page views as a surrogate for marketplace demand,
                                                                     but then dampen their effect to reduce the likelihood of
                                                                     spurious inflation.


                                                                                                                                              3
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Popular = Traffic. Like membership, traffic in a community—      Liveliness. Although most people would be hard-pressed
page views or eyes on content—is one of the most frequently      to define it, they recognize and respond to liveliness or buzz
cited metrics for community health. In deriving the Traffic      when they encounter it. Research has shown that participants
health factor, we started with the standard page view metric,    are not only attracted to but are also motivated to return and
but then mitigated the effect of robot crawlers in order to      contribute in communities that feel animated and vibrant.4
diminish their impact.
                                                                 We find that liveliness can be best measured by tracking
Responsiveness. The speed with which community members           a critical threshold of posting activity that experience and
respond to each other’s posts is another key metric for          analysis have shown us characterizes healthy communities. In
determining community health. Participants in support            calculating the Liveliness factor, we look not only at the number
communities, for example, are only willing to wait for           of posts but also at their distribution within the community. We
answers for a limited amount of time. The same is true for       have identified the critical threshold at between five and ten
engagement and other types of communities. If there is too       posts per day in each community segment. Segments include
much of a lag between posts and responses, conversations         discussion boards, forums, blogs, idea exchanges, and so forth.
peter off and members start looking elsewhere.                   Lopsided distributions indicate a need to balance out the hot
                                                                 and cold spots in the community.
The traditional response time metric counts the number
of minutes between the first post and the first reply. That      In addition to these key factors, a positive atmosphere, civil
first post might be anything—a question, a blog article, an      behavior, and a degree of trust among members is essential
idea, a status update. Because our analysis of community-        to the success of online communities. Abusive language
member behavior has revealed the importance of subsequent        and harassment have no place in any community—online or
responses, we have enhanced the traditional response time        otherwise—particularly one sponsored by an enterprise.
metric to account for all of the responses in a topic.
                                                                 The opinions expressed by community members need not
Interactive = Topic Interaction. Interaction between             all be positive—in fact, one sign of a healthy community is
participants is one of the key reasons that online communities   the freedom members feel to express their opinions about
exist. The traditional metric for measuring interaction is       a company or its products. More important to community
thread depth3 , where threads are topics of discussion and       health, however, is the way in which those opinions are
their depth is the average number of posts they contain. This    expressed. In our experience and that of other community
way of looking at interaction, however, does not consider the    experts, healthy communities rely on moderators and active
number of individuals who are participating. As a result, a      community members to maintain a positive atmosphere
topic with six posts by the same participant would have the      and keep the anti-social behavior at bay.5 As a result, the
same depth as one with six different contributors. Because       Community Health Index is already normalized for moderator
our experience with online communities has led us to             control of atmosphere.
understand that the number of participants in an interaction
is even more important than the number of posts, we have
added the dimension of unique contributors to our calculation
of Topic Interaction.


                                                                                                                                           4
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using community
health factors to                                                              6                 1                        6                1


drive action
                                                                      5                                   2       5                                 2




                                                                               4       A         3                        4       B        3
   Further examination of health factor data from scores                                             6                1
   of communities reveals strong correlations between two
   groups of factors. The first group consists of Members,
   Content, and Traffic, which are closely aligned to traditional
                                                                                           5                                  2
   registration, posting, and page view metrics. These factors
   are strongly affected by community size. We refer to them as
   diagnostic indicators because they reflect the current state
   of the community.                                                                                 4        C       3

                                                                      1. Members - 2. Content - 3. Traffic - 4. Liveliness
   Fluctuations in a community’s diagnostic factors typically         5. Interaction - 6. Responsiveness

   correspond to specific events and serve as a record of their
   impact on the community. This correlation allows community         Take the case of a hypothetical software publisher based on
   managers to use diagnostic factors to gauge the effectiveness      communities that run on the Lithium platform. Concerned
   of tactics designed to boost registrations or page views, such     about the response rate in its support community, the
   as contests, participation incentives, or outreach campaigns.      company recruits staff experts to provide answers to
   Activities such as these appear as inflection points in the        members’ questions. Although the Responsiveness health
   community’s diagnostic health factors.                             factor improves significantly as a result of this infusion, the
                                                                      Interaction factor, which is based in part on the number
   The remaining group of factors—Responsiveness, Interaction,        of unique participants in a thread or topic, begins to drop.
   and Liveliness—are less susceptible to the effects of              Community members’ questions are being answered, but
   community size, more indicative of patterns of behavior            the interactions between participants that give it the feel of a
   within the community, and tend to be predictive indicators         community fall off significantly, as does the Liveliness factor.
   of community health. They are, in effect, an early warning         Instead, community members begin to view their community
   system for aspects of community health that may require            as just another support channel. Armed with this information,
   attention or intervention before their effects become              community managers can take action: setting out to identify
   apparent. Not only are the predictive factors interesting in and   and encourage home-grown experts from within the
   of themselves, but community managers can learn a great            community to replace the staff experts. Over time, this will
   deal by looking at the interplay between predictive factors.       lead to more participants, increased interaction levels, and
                                                                      ultimately to a renewed interest in the community.




                                                                                                                                                              5
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  4
                     A                         B             Interaction       C
                                                             Liveliness
3.2
                           Company Staff
                                                             Responsivieness
                           Introduced

2.4
                                                    Superuser Incentive
                                                    Program Initiated

1.6



0.8



  0




      Oct.07

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      Apr.06




                                      S1 Predictive Health Factors
In addition to monitoring the community as a whole,
community managers can correlate community health
factors with usage metrics for specific community features
to reveal the effects of these features on the community.
Lithium customers, for example, can see the effects of
critical engagement features such as Tagging, Kudos, Chat,
or Accepted Solutions. This enables community managers to
determine which features have the most positive impact on
community health and to implement features or make other
changes that have predictable effects on community health.




                                                                                                           6
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using the community
health index as a                                                             6                 1                            6              1


community standard
                                                                      5                                 2         5                                2




                                                                              4       S1        3                            4       E1     3
                                                                                                    6                 1
   As noted earlier, community health factors provide diagnostic
   and predictive information useful in measuring community
   health. Viewed either as a snapshot or mapped over time,
                                                                                            5                                    2
   these factors reveal a great deal about an online community.
   To account for factors such as community size, age, and
   volatility, we apply a series of smoothing and normalization
                                                                                                    4       L1        3
   algorithms to enable communities of all types to use a single
   formulation of the Community Health Index.
                                                                      1. Members - 2. Content - 3. Traffic - 4. Liveliness
                                                                      5. Interaction - 6. Responsiveness
   The three Community Health Index (CHI) compass diagrams
   below show healthy communities with the distinctly different       In the sample support community (S1), the three predictive
   profiles that are characteristic of support, engagement, and       factors—Responsiveness, Interaction, and Liveliness—are
   listening communities. Listening communities include both          balanced. In the sample, engagement (E1) and listening (L1)
   support and engagement elements. Although their profiles           communities, Interaction and Liveliness are characteristically
   are different, all are healthy communities. These diagrams         higher than Responsiveness.
   present a snapshot of health factors for a given period (in this
   case one week) as a relative percentage of the community’s         Simple CHI trend analysis, coupled with the ability to drill
   highest scores. For the purposes of illustration, the Predictive   down to the individual health factors, provides an early
   and Diagnostic factors are normalized separately to make the       warning of potentially serious problems within a community.
   different profiles easier to identify.                             It is important to note that a single health factor, like a single
                                                                      metric, doesn’t present the whole picture. Instead, community
   The Community Health Index is on a scale of 0 to                   managers should consider the Community Health Index in
   1000. The higher the number, the healthier the                     conjunction with the individual health factors. As the graphs
   community and the more likely it will accomplish the               that follow show, a community can weather the decline in
   goals of the members and the company. Regardless                   one or two health factors and remain healthy when the other
   of a community’s score, there is always room for                   factors are stable or improving.
   improvement and the individual health factors tell you
   exactly where to focus.




                                                                                                                                                              7
360
                                                                                                                                    720




                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                          1080
                                                                                                                                                        1800


                                                                                                                                                 1440
                                                                                                 Nov.05
                                                                                                 Dec.05
                                                                                                 Jan.06
                                                                                                 Feb.06
                                                                                                 Mar.06
                                                                                                 Apr.06
                                                                                                                                                                                               community (S1).


                                                                                                 Jun.06
                                                                                                  Jul.06
                                                                                                 Aug.06
                                                                                                 Sep.06
                                                                                                 Oct.06
                                                                                                 Nov.06
                                                                                                 Dec.06
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                                                                                                 Mar.07




                                                                                                               Members
                                                                                                 Apr.07
                                                                                                 May.07




                                   0.7
                                         1.4
                                               2.1
                                                     2.8
                                                           3.5




              0
                                                                                                 Jun.07
    Nov.05                                                                                        Jul.07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 predictive factors, and the health trend for a support




    Dec.05                                                                                       Sep.07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          For example, the graphs below show diagnostic factors,




    Jan.06                                                                                       Oct.07

                                                                                                               Content / 60
                                                                                                                                                               S1 Diagnostic Heal th Factors




    Feb.06                                                                                       Nov.07
    Mar.06                                                                                       Dec.07
    Apr.06                                                                                       Jan.08
                                                                                                 Feb.08
    Jun.06
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     Jul.06
                                                                                                 May.08
    Aug.06
                                                                                                               Traffic / 3000




                                                                                                 Jun.08
    Sep.06
    Oct.06
    Nov.06
    Dec.06
    Feb.07
    Mar.07




                  Interaction
    Apr.07
    May.07
    Jun.07
     Jul.07
    Sep.07




                  Liveliness
    Oct.07
                                                                 S1 Predictive Heal th Factors




    Nov.07
    Dec.07
    Jan.08
    Feb.08
    Mar.08
    May.08
                  Responsiveness




    Jun.08
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8
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                                                S1 Community
1.5


1.2
               CHI = 797
0.9


0.6


0.3

                                                                 Health Function                   Health Trend
 0
      Nov.05
      Dec.05
      Jan.06
      Feb.06
      Mar.06
      Apr.06
      Jun.06
       Jul.06
      Aug.06
      Sep.06
      Oct.06
      Nov.06
      Dec.06
      Feb.07
      Mar.07
      Apr.07
      May.07
      Jun.07
       Jul.07
      Sep.07
      Oct.07
      Nov.07
      Dec.07
      Jan.08
      Feb.08
      Mar.08
      May.08
      Jun.08
                                                                     Graphs of the Diagnostic factors, Predictive factors, and the
                                                                     Health Trend for a health support community. To plot the
                                                                     Diagnostic factors in a single plot, we have down-scaled
                                                                     Content by 60 and Traffic by 3000.

Our research has shown that support communities typically
average between 1 and 4 interactions per topic. This
community demonstrates a steady average Interaction of
2, which is considered healthy. Likewise, a Responsiveness
of greater than 1, which reflects the community’s ability to
meet the expectations of most participants, is also healthy. A
further indication of health is a Liveliness factor that shows
improvement over time. Although the community’s diagnostic
factors reveal evidence of a plateau at the end of its second
year, its high content usefulness indicates that community
members continue to derive benefit from the content. Overall,
as its CHI indicates, this is a healthy community.




                                                                                                                                      9
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                       S2 Diagnostic Heal th Factors                                                S2 Predictive Heal th Factors
10000                                                                               3.5

8000                                                                                2.8

6000                                                                                2.1


4000                                                                                1.4


2000                                                                                0.7

                                             Members   Content / 40   Traffic / 650                                     Interaction   Liveliness     Responsiveness
    0                                                                                0




                                                                                          Dec.03
                                                                                          Feb.04
                                                                                          May.04
                                                                                            Jul.04
                                                                                          Sep.04
                                                                                          Nov.04
                                                                                           Jan.05
                                                                                          Mar.05
                                                                                          May.05
                                                                                            Jul.05
                                                                                          Sep.05
                                                                                          Nov.05
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                                                                                          Dec.06
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                                                                                          Jun.07
                                                                                          Aug.07
                                                                                          Oct.07
                                                                                          Dec.07
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                                                                                          Apr.08
                                                                                          Jun.08
                                                                                          Aug.08
        Dec.03
        Feb.04
        Apr.04
        Jun.04
        Aug.04
        Oct.04
        Nov.04
        Jan.05
        Mar.05
        May.05
         Jul.05
        Sep.05
        Oct.05
        Dec.05
        Feb.06
        Apr.06
        Jun.06
        Aug.06
        Oct.06
        Nov.06
        Jan.07
        Mar.07
        May.07
         Jul.07
        Sep.07
        Oct.07
        Dec.07
        Feb.08
        Apr.08
        Jun.08
        Aug.08
        Graphs of the Diagnostic
        factors, Predictive factors,
                                                                        S2 Community
        and the Health Trend for a
                                       1.5
        health support community.


                                                       CHI = 208
        To plot the Diagnostic
        factors in a single plot, we
        have down-scaled Content       1.2
        by 40 and Traffic by 650.

                                       0.9


                                       0.6


                                       0.3
                                                                                           Health Function      Health Trend
                                        0
                                             Jan.04
                                             Feb.04
                                             Apr.04
                                             Jun.04
                                              Jul.04
                                             Sep.04
                                             Oct.04
                                             Dec.04
                                             Feb.05
                                             Mar.05
                                             May.05
                                              Jul.05
                                             Aug.05
                                             Oct.05
                                             Nov.05
                                             Jan.06
                                             Mar.06
                                             Apr.06
                                             Jun.06
                                              Jul.06
                                             Sep.06
                                             Nov.06
                                             Dec.06
                                             Feb.07
                                             Apr.07
                                             May.07
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                                             Aug.07
                                             Oct.07
                                             Dec.07
                                             Jan.08
                                             Mar.08
                                             Apr.08
                                             Jun.08
                                             Aug.08
                  The graphs above show health factors for an older and larger but less robust community. This community is more than
                  10 times the size of S1, but its diagnostic factors demonstrate wildly fluctuating yearly cycles with little actual improvement over
                  time. The diagnostic factors show that the community experienced a spike in registrations toward the end of 2006, but was unable
                  to capitalize on the infusion of new members. Responsiveness and Interaction are stable and within norms for support
                  communities, but S2 shows a troubling decline in its Liveliness factor, which can often be remedied by adjusting the community’s
                  structure, something that other large communities routinely do on an ongoing basis. Although still large, this community is
                  stagnant, with a low CHI for its size.




                                                                                                                                                                     10
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conclusion




   Although existing community metrics yield a tremendous                                 In fact, we see communities using the Community Health
   amount of data, the industry has been unable until now to                              Index in multiple ways: as a metric to objectively measure the
   use that data to achieve a meaningful measure of community                             health of a community, as a means to validate the perceptions
   health. With the introduction of the Community Health Index,                           of community moderators and other community experts, and
   companies and community experts have a way to organize                                 as diagnostic and prescriptive drivers to help communities
   and compare this data against both the past performance of                             meet ROI and business objectives.
   the community itself and against other similar communities.
                                                                                          Companies have the data, and now they have a standard to
                                                                                          compare it against.




   resources
   1
    Butler, B. S. (2001). Membership Size, Communication Activity, and                    4
                                                                                           Ackerman, M. S., & Starr, B. (1995). Social activity indicators: interface
   Sustainability: A Resource-Based Model of Online Social Structures.                    components for CSCW systems. In Proceedings of the 8th annual ACM
   INFORMATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH, 12(4), 346-362.                                          symposium on User interface and software technology (pp. 159-168).
   2
    Soroka,V., & Rafaeli,S (2006). Invisible Participants: How Cultural Capital Relates   5
                                                                                           Cosley, D., Frankowski, D., Kiesler, S., Terveen, L., & Riedl, J. (2005). How
   to Lurking Behavior. Proceedings of the 15th international conference on World         oversight improves member-maintained communities. In Proceedings of
   Wide Web (pp163-172).                                                                  the SIGCHI conference on Human factors in computing systems (pp. 11-20).
                                                                                          Portland, Oregon, USA: ACM
   3
    Preece, J. (2001). Sociability and usability in online communities: determining
   and measuring success. Behaviour and Information Technology, 347-356




   Lithium social solutions helps the world’s most iconic brands to build brand nations—vibrant online communities of passionate social customers.
   Lithium helps top brands such as AT&T, Sephora, Univision, and PayPal build active online communities that turn customer passion into social
   media marketing ROI. For more information on how to create lasting competitive advantage with the social customer experience,
   visit lithium.com, or connect with us on Twitter, Facebook and our own brand nation – the Lithosphere.


   lithium.com | © 2012 Lithium Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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defining the CHI
health factors



   Our goal in introducing the Community Health Index (CHI)            Traffic
   is to provide a standard of measurement that all online             Traffic is typically measured using the standard page
   communities can use. To that end, this section describes the        views metric. Because the page view metric can be heavily
   representation of the six health factors as well as a formula       contaminated by robot crawlers, it is important to discount


                                                                       views when computing CHI. Traffic is represented by 𝑣 𝒉.
   for combining them.                                                 the effects of robots and use only human contributed page


   Members
                                                                       Responsiveness
   The standard measure for Members is the registration


   Members is represented by μ.
                                                                       The traditional time-to-response metric is the starting
   metric that all communities track. In the formulas that follow,
                                                                       point for calculating Responsiveness. Time-to-response is
                                                                       generally defined as the number of minutes between the
                                                                       first message in a message thread and the first response
   Content


   utility are posts and page views. Posts (represented by 𝑝) is the
                                                                       to that message. However, this metric does not consider
   The two standard metrics that contribute to calculating content
                                                                       the intervals between the first response and the second
                                                                       response, and so on. Therefore, we have defined a more
   number of posts added to the community over a period of time.

                                                                       𝑅). This health factor is computed in three steps. First,
                                                                       robust health factor, called Responsiveness (denoted by
   We use page views to represent consumer demand because

                                                                       we compute the average response time (denoted by 𝑡 𝑅) by
   we have found that page views provides an accurate reflection
   of the relative usefulness of the posts. However, we also
                                                                       averaging the response time for all messages within a topic,
   observed that highly viewed pages tend to draw more random

                                                                       response time for the 𝑘 message posted in thread θ, then
                                                                       and then averaging that over all topics. If    denotes the
                                                                                                𝑡𝒉
   views, resulting in a snowball effect that could spuriously


   effect, we take the log of page views as a surrogate for user
   inflate the estimate of consumer demand. To dampen this
                                                                       the average response time may be expressed as


   express Content Utility (represented by U) as:
   demand, and thus the usefulness of the posts. We therefore
                                                                                                                       (2)



                                                                       where Θ is the total number of threads and 𝑚θ is the number
                                                      (1)


                                                                       of messages in thread θ.




                                                                                                                                              12
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numeric, 𝑡 𝑅 is a measure of time, so its value can change
Unlike page views and registrations, which are purely                   is achieved when there are two messages between two
                                                                        distinct users. Furthermore, since we do not want the level
depending on the unit at which         is measured. When                of interaction to be biased by extremely long threads, we


community may be 𝑡 𝑅 = 1 day. However, if it is measured in
measured in days, the response time for a hypothetical                  use the function to dampen their effect. Based on these


hours, 𝑡 𝑅 = 24 , and if in minutes, 𝑡 𝑅 = 1440. Therefore, the
                                                                        requirements, Topic Interaction can be written as:


second step involves converting 𝑡 𝑅 into a unit-less numeric


expected response time ( 𝑡 𝑒), which defines the time that a
                                                                                                                                      (4)
value. This can be done by defining a constant, called the


user would be willing to wait before receiving a response.


unit as 𝑡 𝑅. Taking the ratio of 𝑡 𝑅 to 𝑡 𝑒 would then cancel
Since it is another measure of time, it should have the same
                                                                        Liveliness
                                                                        Although online communities furnish users with many
out the units and render the ratio a unit-less measure of

                                                                        calculate the Liveliness of a community (represented by 𝐿) as
                                                                        activities, the most obvious action is posting. Therefore, we
response time with an expected value of 1. Because we have
found that response time is inversely related to community
                                                                        a function of the average number of posts per forum or other
health, with a shorter response time typically pointing to a
                                                                        community division.

inverse of the ratio 𝑡 𝑅/𝑡 𝑒. Therefore Responsiveness can be
healthier community, the final step simply computes the

                                                                                                                                      (5)
written as:




                                                                             𝑝 𝒆 is the expected number of posts per board (a constant
                                                                        explained later). The arctan function with the parameter
                                                                  (3)   where B is the total number of publicly accessible boards,



                                                                        0.07 is used to give a linear behavior near the origin and a
                                                                        and



Interaction                                                             slow saturation as its argument increases. This prevents the
The conventional metric for measuring interactivity is thread           indefinite inflation of liveliness by continuously reducing the
depth, the average number of messages in a topic. However,              number of forums or other community divisions.


Therefore, we calculate Topic Interaction (denoted by 𝐼)
this number does not consider the number of participants.



participating in a thread (denoted by 𝑢θ) and the number of
as a function of two terms: the number of unique users


messages in a thread, 𝑚θ. The minimum unit of interaction




                                                                                                                                                 13
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                                              𝐻 𝒐 , in terms of its
Combining Health Factors
After defining the health factors, the next step is to derive
the functional form of the health function,
factors. Since the factors are defined in such way that they
are directly proportional to community health, combining the
health factors simply requires multiplying them together. We
also take the square root of the product to make the health
function more robust against large fluctuations in any one
health factor that is not correlated with the other factors.
Therefore, the final form of the health function is:




                                                                      (6)




                                                                                                14
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computing the
community health
index


                                                         𝐻 𝒐it does not
                                                                          a value for the expected response time ( 𝑡 𝑒) and the expected
                                                                          number of posts per board ( 𝑝 𝒆).Based on our analysis,
   Although equation (6) defines the health function (                    To compute the predictive health function, we need to choose
   describe how we actually compute it. This section fills in the
   technical details that make it possible. The basic steps are:



                                                                          also have 50 posts per forum per week. Therefore, we set 𝑡 𝑒
                                                                          we found healthy communities generally have an average
   •	   Choose a window for data aggregation.


                                                                          equal to 1000 minutes and 𝑝 𝒆 equal to 50 posts per forum
                                                                          response time of 1000 minutes or less. On average, they
   •	   Assign values to the free parameters.

   •	   Smooth the health function to more easily see the trend.
                                                                          for a one week aggregation window. With these parameters,
   •	   Normalize the health function for community size, age,            we can compute the health function for any community over
        and type for comparison purposes.                                 time via equation (6). This will give us the whole history of the
                                                                          community’s health.



                                                                                                                𝐻 𝒐), the remaining
   Choosing a Window for Data Aggregation
                                                                          Smoothing The Health Function to View a Trend
   The first step in computing the health function is to choose
                                                                          Once we have the health function (


   factors. For example, it is understood that θ is the thread
   a window for data aggregation. The aggregation window
                                                                          computations involve smoothing and normalizing the health


   count within the period of one aggregation window, and B is
   gives context to the variable in the definition for the health
                                                                          function. These computations are not difficult, but they do
                                                                          involve certain mathematical literacy. Depending on the
                                                                          application, they may or may not be necessary. Smoothing
   the cumulative board count up to and including the current
                                                                          is often desirable, because it removes extraneous noise in
   window of interest. The aggregation window is typically
                                                                          the data to give a better indication of the health progression
   set to be one month or one week. It is not advisable to use
                                                                          for the community. Normalization is only necessary when
   windows smaller than one week, because online behaviors
                                                                          comparing the health between
   of community users show strong weekly cyclic variation. We
                                                                          different communities.
   used a one week aggregation window for all our calculations.
                                                                          To accurately portray the health of a community, we require
   Assigning Values for Free Parameters
                                                                          the smoothing algorithm to use the latest data effectively as
   Grouping the messages via their post date into weekly
                                                                          they are most important for determining the current state
   windows, the health factors for each week can be computed
                                                                          of health. Although a moving average will use the most
   using only data within and prior to the week of interest.
                                                                          recent data efficiently, it introduces a lag that is undesirable.
   Subsequently, all the health factors are plotted and examined
                                                                          Kernel smoothing can track the trend in the bulk of the data
   over time. We usually discard the health factors for the first
                                                                          very accurately, but performs poorly at the two ends of the
   and the last window to avoid edge effects.

                                                                                                                                                    15
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data series because it does not use that data efficiently. We     3. We compute the definite integral of the weighted derivative
developed a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both          to obtain the “net health” of the community.
types of smoothing algorithms by using a weighted average
                                                                  4. We take into account the volatility of CHI by dividing the
between the two algorithms. The latest data near the end of
                                                                  net health by the square root of the weighted mean absolute
the series are smoothed primarily with a weighted moving
                                                                  deviation of the health function’s derivative. The weighting
average. Earlier data are smoothed primarily with kernel
                                                                  function is the same as the one we used in step 2 of this
smoothing that uses a Hanning window as its kernel function.
                                                                  normalization procedure.
The smoothed health function is called the health trend
(denoted by without any subscript).                               5. Because the weighted net health has a very large range
                                                                  of values, we apply the “signed-logarithm” function to the
Normalizing CHI for Comparisons
                                                                  weighted net health so that its value is more linear. Here, the
The health trend will give a good indication of the community’s
                                                                  signed-logarithm is defined by
health throughout its history, so we can objectively compare


                                                                                                                               𝐶𝒐
the health condition of a community between any two points        6. Finally, to calibrate the result into a more commonly used
in time. However, the health trend is derived from the un-


                                                                              𝐶 𝑠. The result is the community health index
                                                                  scale, we shift the reference point by adding a constant
normalized health function, so we cannot directly compare


                                                                  (denoted by the Greek letter χ).
                                                                  to the result from step 5 and then multiplied by a scaling
the health between different communities. In applications,        constant,
such as benchmark studies, that require comparison of health
across communities, we must normalize the health function.
There are many different ways to normalize the health function    Mathematically , the sequence of operations for computing
depending on what aspect of the communities we like to            CHI can be written as where
compare. For benchmark studies, we normalized the health
function by the following steps:

1. First we compute the smoothed derivative of
                                                                                                                                        (7)
the health function to reveal all the positive and
negative health trends throughout the history of the



                                                                    𝐻 𝒐 is the health function, 𝐻 is the health trend, 𝑡 represents
community. (This operation is mathematically equivalent



                                                                  time measured in weeks, and 𝑡 𝒐  is the current time in weeks.
to taking the derivative of the health trend, because the
smoothing operator commutes with the differential operator).

2. We also weight the smoothed derivative with an exponential     The notation 〈∙〉 𝑡represents the sample average that takes
decay that has a decay time constant of 50 weeks. This            averages over the time variable, .
will attenuate the effect of long past health trends on the
community’s current health condition.



                                                                                                                                              16

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Community Health Index for Online Communities

  • 1. community health index for online communities
  • 2. share this whitepaper contents 1 executive summary 2 intro 3 defining health factors for online communities 5 using community health factors to drive action 7 using the community health index as a community standard 11 conclusion 12 defining the CHI health factors 15 computing the community health index subscribe to request a demo SocialMatters we help companies unlock the passion of their customers. The Lithium Social Customer Suite allows brands to build vibrant customer communities that: reduce service costs with grow brand advocay with drive sales with innovate faster with social support social marketing social commerce social innovation lithium.com | © 2012 Lithium Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved 2
  • 3. share this whitepaper executive summary In the current economic climate, companies are discovering that By analyzing hundreds of metrics from communities of their online communities have become a powerful and cost- varying types, sizes, and ages, we identified the diagnostic and effective vehicle for interacting with customers. For example, predictive metrics that most accurately represent key attributes a consumer electronics community that runs on the Lithium of a healthy community: growth, useful content, popularity, platform recently reported 1.4 million deflected support calls, responsiveness, interactivity, and liveliness. Although we resulting in an annual estimated savings of $10 million. uncovered other metrics that proved to be even more predictive of community health, the ones we selected as the basis for Savings like these have clearly transformed online customer calculating the Community Health Index are readily available communities into vital enterprise assets, which makes for most online communities across the industry. monitoring their health increasingly important to corporate wellbeing. However, until now there has been no simple, Smoothed and normalized for community purpose, size, common way to do so effectively, no standard by which to and age, the Community Health Index provides a single evaluate or take action on the myriad of metrics used to representation of community health. Deconstructed, its capture every aspect of community activity and performance. constituent health factors enable community managers to take Imagine a discussion of credit-worthiness before the specific action and measure the results. This paper describes introduction of the FICO® score. these health factors and explains how to use them to calculate a Community Health Index. Although the source community Lithium, the leading provider of Social Customer solutions data is proprietary, Lithium freely offers the results of our that deliver real business results, offers a solution. Lithium research toward a common standard for the industry. has recently completed a detailed, time-series analysis of up to a decade’s worth of proprietary data that represents billions of actions, millions of users, and scores of communities. This research, coupled with our acknowledged expertise in planning, deploying, and managing customer communities, enabled us to identify and calculate key factors that contribute to a new standard for measuring community health: the Community Health Index. 1
  • 4. share this whitepaper intro Online customer communities have come a long way in the Community Health Index. The development of the Community thirty years since a handful of hobbyists posted messages on Health Index is based on data aggregated from a wide range the first public bulletin boards. For an increasing number of of communities representing more than 15 billion actions companies, they have become an important tool for engaging and 6 million users. In order to make it universally applicable, with their customers and driving sales. the Community Health Index is normalized for community purpose, size, and age. In a recent study published in the Harvard Business Review, researchers found that community participants at an online Like a low FICO score or high BMI, a low Community Health auction site both bought and sold more, generating on Index value points to the need for a change in behavior. And, average 56% more in sales than non-community users. like the components of standardized tests, deconstruction This increased activity translated into several million dollars of the Community Health Index into specific health factors in profit over the course of a year. Likewise, a community points to specific areas within the community that require running on the Lithium platform recently reported both a 41% corrective action. This deconstruction even extends to increase in sales by community members and an $8 million different levels within a community, where we can identify the savings in support costs. less healthy subdivisions and the conditions that are affecting their health. With information such as this, a company can Results such as these demonstrate the return on investment target its efforts and resources to make the specific changes for healthy and successful communities: customers are most likely to further improve the community’s health. getting what they need from the communities, which, in turn, allows the communities to meet the goals of the companies In the spirit of Mr. Fair and Mr. Isaac, the National Institutes of that sponsor them. The ROI that online communities Health, and generations of high school English teachers, we are capable of delivering makes it all the more essential offer the Community Health Index as an open measurement that companies be able to measure the health of their for community health. communities and take action to keep them healthy. Measurement, however, has proved to be a challenge because of the missing component: a single industry standard—like the FICO score, Body-Mass Index, or standardized test scores, for example—that allows communities to gauge their health in absolute objective terms. As the result of a massive data analysis project, Lithium has developed such a standard, the 2
  • 5. share this whitepaper defining health factors for online communities Good health and good sense are two of life’s The characteristics of healthy communities and their greatest blessings. corresponding health factors are: -Publius Syrus, Maxim 827 Growing = Members. After an initial surge of registrations Health in an online customer community, like health in characteristic of a newly-launched community, membership an individual, is spread across a broad spectrum. And as in a healthy community continues to grow. Although mature Charles Atlas and the 97-pound weakling illustrate, some communities typically experience a slower rate of growth, communities are stronger and healthier than others. But, they still add new members as the company’s customer base no matter how good we look or how robust we feel at the grows. The traditional method for measuring membership is moment, there is always room for improvement. the registration count.1 Humans enjoy the benefit of sophisticated diagnostic and Useful = Content. A critical mass of content posted on an preventive medicine, which tells us where we need to online community is clearly one of its strongest attractions to improve. In order to get the most out of online communities, both members and casual visitors. In support communities, we need similar diagnostics to help us make better use of the the content enables participants to arrive at a general data currently available for measuring community activity and understanding or get answers to specific questions. In performance. Armed with the right data and with standards engagement (enthusiast or marketing) communities, it serves that allow us to evaluate that data objectively, we can then as a magnet to attract and engage members. In listening formulate a plan for improving community health. communities, the content posted by community members gives the company valuable input from the customers who Based on our continuous engagement with successful online use their products or services. communities, we were able to identify a common set of characteristics shared by healthy communities of all types, A steady infusion of useful content, then, is essential to the sizes, and ages: they are growing, useful, popular, responsive, health of a community.2 The traditional metric for measuring interactive, lively, and positive. Furthermore, analysis of the content is number of posts. This metric alone, however, gives vast body of data available to us allowed us to then define no indication of the usefulness of the content, especially in specific health factors that most accurately represent communities that do not use content rating or tagging. In each characteristic. order to model content usefulness instead of sheer bulk, we consider page views as a surrogate for marketplace demand, but then dampen their effect to reduce the likelihood of spurious inflation. 3
  • 6. share this whitepaper Popular = Traffic. Like membership, traffic in a community— Liveliness. Although most people would be hard-pressed page views or eyes on content—is one of the most frequently to define it, they recognize and respond to liveliness or buzz cited metrics for community health. In deriving the Traffic when they encounter it. Research has shown that participants health factor, we started with the standard page view metric, are not only attracted to but are also motivated to return and but then mitigated the effect of robot crawlers in order to contribute in communities that feel animated and vibrant.4 diminish their impact. We find that liveliness can be best measured by tracking Responsiveness. The speed with which community members a critical threshold of posting activity that experience and respond to each other’s posts is another key metric for analysis have shown us characterizes healthy communities. In determining community health. Participants in support calculating the Liveliness factor, we look not only at the number communities, for example, are only willing to wait for of posts but also at their distribution within the community. We answers for a limited amount of time. The same is true for have identified the critical threshold at between five and ten engagement and other types of communities. If there is too posts per day in each community segment. Segments include much of a lag between posts and responses, conversations discussion boards, forums, blogs, idea exchanges, and so forth. peter off and members start looking elsewhere. Lopsided distributions indicate a need to balance out the hot and cold spots in the community. The traditional response time metric counts the number of minutes between the first post and the first reply. That In addition to these key factors, a positive atmosphere, civil first post might be anything—a question, a blog article, an behavior, and a degree of trust among members is essential idea, a status update. Because our analysis of community- to the success of online communities. Abusive language member behavior has revealed the importance of subsequent and harassment have no place in any community—online or responses, we have enhanced the traditional response time otherwise—particularly one sponsored by an enterprise. metric to account for all of the responses in a topic. The opinions expressed by community members need not Interactive = Topic Interaction. Interaction between all be positive—in fact, one sign of a healthy community is participants is one of the key reasons that online communities the freedom members feel to express their opinions about exist. The traditional metric for measuring interaction is a company or its products. More important to community thread depth3 , where threads are topics of discussion and health, however, is the way in which those opinions are their depth is the average number of posts they contain. This expressed. In our experience and that of other community way of looking at interaction, however, does not consider the experts, healthy communities rely on moderators and active number of individuals who are participating. As a result, a community members to maintain a positive atmosphere topic with six posts by the same participant would have the and keep the anti-social behavior at bay.5 As a result, the same depth as one with six different contributors. Because Community Health Index is already normalized for moderator our experience with online communities has led us to control of atmosphere. understand that the number of participants in an interaction is even more important than the number of posts, we have added the dimension of unique contributors to our calculation of Topic Interaction. 4
  • 7. share this whitepaper using community health factors to 6 1 6 1 drive action 5 2 5 2 4 A 3 4 B 3 Further examination of health factor data from scores 6 1 of communities reveals strong correlations between two groups of factors. The first group consists of Members, Content, and Traffic, which are closely aligned to traditional 5 2 registration, posting, and page view metrics. These factors are strongly affected by community size. We refer to them as diagnostic indicators because they reflect the current state of the community. 4 C 3 1. Members - 2. Content - 3. Traffic - 4. Liveliness Fluctuations in a community’s diagnostic factors typically 5. Interaction - 6. Responsiveness correspond to specific events and serve as a record of their impact on the community. This correlation allows community Take the case of a hypothetical software publisher based on managers to use diagnostic factors to gauge the effectiveness communities that run on the Lithium platform. Concerned of tactics designed to boost registrations or page views, such about the response rate in its support community, the as contests, participation incentives, or outreach campaigns. company recruits staff experts to provide answers to Activities such as these appear as inflection points in the members’ questions. Although the Responsiveness health community’s diagnostic health factors. factor improves significantly as a result of this infusion, the Interaction factor, which is based in part on the number The remaining group of factors—Responsiveness, Interaction, of unique participants in a thread or topic, begins to drop. and Liveliness—are less susceptible to the effects of Community members’ questions are being answered, but community size, more indicative of patterns of behavior the interactions between participants that give it the feel of a within the community, and tend to be predictive indicators community fall off significantly, as does the Liveliness factor. of community health. They are, in effect, an early warning Instead, community members begin to view their community system for aspects of community health that may require as just another support channel. Armed with this information, attention or intervention before their effects become community managers can take action: setting out to identify apparent. Not only are the predictive factors interesting in and and encourage home-grown experts from within the of themselves, but community managers can learn a great community to replace the staff experts. Over time, this will deal by looking at the interplay between predictive factors. lead to more participants, increased interaction levels, and ultimately to a renewed interest in the community. 5
  • 8. share this whitepaper 4 A B Interaction C Liveliness 3.2 Company Staff Responsivieness Introduced 2.4 Superuser Incentive Program Initiated 1.6 0.8 0 Oct.07 Dec.07 Oct.06 Dec.06 Dec.05 Jun.08 Jun.07 Jan.08 Sep.07 Mar.08 Jun.06 Sep.06 Mar.07 Feb.08 Jan.06 Mar.06 Aug.06 Feb.07 Feb.06 Jul.07 Nov.07 Jul.06 Nov.06 May.08 Nov.05 May.07 Apr.07 Apr.06 S1 Predictive Health Factors In addition to monitoring the community as a whole, community managers can correlate community health factors with usage metrics for specific community features to reveal the effects of these features on the community. Lithium customers, for example, can see the effects of critical engagement features such as Tagging, Kudos, Chat, or Accepted Solutions. This enables community managers to determine which features have the most positive impact on community health and to implement features or make other changes that have predictable effects on community health. 6
  • 9. share this whitepaper using the community health index as a 6 1 6 1 community standard 5 2 5 2 4 S1 3 4 E1 3 6 1 As noted earlier, community health factors provide diagnostic and predictive information useful in measuring community health. Viewed either as a snapshot or mapped over time, 5 2 these factors reveal a great deal about an online community. To account for factors such as community size, age, and volatility, we apply a series of smoothing and normalization 4 L1 3 algorithms to enable communities of all types to use a single formulation of the Community Health Index. 1. Members - 2. Content - 3. Traffic - 4. Liveliness 5. Interaction - 6. Responsiveness The three Community Health Index (CHI) compass diagrams below show healthy communities with the distinctly different In the sample support community (S1), the three predictive profiles that are characteristic of support, engagement, and factors—Responsiveness, Interaction, and Liveliness—are listening communities. Listening communities include both balanced. In the sample, engagement (E1) and listening (L1) support and engagement elements. Although their profiles communities, Interaction and Liveliness are characteristically are different, all are healthy communities. These diagrams higher than Responsiveness. present a snapshot of health factors for a given period (in this case one week) as a relative percentage of the community’s Simple CHI trend analysis, coupled with the ability to drill highest scores. For the purposes of illustration, the Predictive down to the individual health factors, provides an early and Diagnostic factors are normalized separately to make the warning of potentially serious problems within a community. different profiles easier to identify. It is important to note that a single health factor, like a single metric, doesn’t present the whole picture. Instead, community The Community Health Index is on a scale of 0 to managers should consider the Community Health Index in 1000. The higher the number, the healthier the conjunction with the individual health factors. As the graphs community and the more likely it will accomplish the that follow show, a community can weather the decline in goals of the members and the company. Regardless one or two health factors and remain healthy when the other of a community’s score, there is always room for factors are stable or improving. improvement and the individual health factors tell you exactly where to focus. 7
  • 10. 360 720 0 1080 1800 1440 Nov.05 Dec.05 Jan.06 Feb.06 Mar.06 Apr.06 community (S1). Jun.06 Jul.06 Aug.06 Sep.06 Oct.06 Nov.06 Dec.06 Feb.07 Mar.07 Members Apr.07 May.07 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 0 Jun.07 Nov.05 Jul.07 predictive factors, and the health trend for a support Dec.05 Sep.07 For example, the graphs below show diagnostic factors, Jan.06 Oct.07 Content / 60 S1 Diagnostic Heal th Factors Feb.06 Nov.07 Mar.06 Dec.07 Apr.06 Jan.08 Feb.08 Jun.06 Mar.08 Jul.06 May.08 Aug.06 Traffic / 3000 Jun.08 Sep.06 Oct.06 Nov.06 Dec.06 Feb.07 Mar.07 Interaction Apr.07 May.07 Jun.07 Jul.07 Sep.07 Liveliness Oct.07 S1 Predictive Heal th Factors Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 May.08 Responsiveness Jun.08 share this whitepaper 8
  • 11. share this whitepaper S1 Community 1.5 1.2 CHI = 797 0.9 0.6 0.3 Health Function Health Trend 0 Nov.05 Dec.05 Jan.06 Feb.06 Mar.06 Apr.06 Jun.06 Jul.06 Aug.06 Sep.06 Oct.06 Nov.06 Dec.06 Feb.07 Mar.07 Apr.07 May.07 Jun.07 Jul.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Nov.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Feb.08 Mar.08 May.08 Jun.08 Graphs of the Diagnostic factors, Predictive factors, and the Health Trend for a health support community. To plot the Diagnostic factors in a single plot, we have down-scaled Content by 60 and Traffic by 3000. Our research has shown that support communities typically average between 1 and 4 interactions per topic. This community demonstrates a steady average Interaction of 2, which is considered healthy. Likewise, a Responsiveness of greater than 1, which reflects the community’s ability to meet the expectations of most participants, is also healthy. A further indication of health is a Liveliness factor that shows improvement over time. Although the community’s diagnostic factors reveal evidence of a plateau at the end of its second year, its high content usefulness indicates that community members continue to derive benefit from the content. Overall, as its CHI indicates, this is a healthy community. 9
  • 12. share this whitepaper S2 Diagnostic Heal th Factors S2 Predictive Heal th Factors 10000 3.5 8000 2.8 6000 2.1 4000 1.4 2000 0.7 Members Content / 40 Traffic / 650 Interaction Liveliness Responsiveness 0 0 Dec.03 Feb.04 May.04 Jul.04 Sep.04 Nov.04 Jan.05 Mar.05 May.05 Jul.05 Sep.05 Nov.05 Jan.06 Mar.06 May.06 Jul.06 Oct.06 Dec.06 Feb.07 Apr.07 Jun.07 Aug.07 Oct.07 Dec.07 Feb.08 Apr.08 Jun.08 Aug.08 Dec.03 Feb.04 Apr.04 Jun.04 Aug.04 Oct.04 Nov.04 Jan.05 Mar.05 May.05 Jul.05 Sep.05 Oct.05 Dec.05 Feb.06 Apr.06 Jun.06 Aug.06 Oct.06 Nov.06 Jan.07 Mar.07 May.07 Jul.07 Sep.07 Oct.07 Dec.07 Feb.08 Apr.08 Jun.08 Aug.08 Graphs of the Diagnostic factors, Predictive factors, S2 Community and the Health Trend for a 1.5 health support community. CHI = 208 To plot the Diagnostic factors in a single plot, we have down-scaled Content 1.2 by 40 and Traffic by 650. 0.9 0.6 0.3 Health Function Health Trend 0 Jan.04 Feb.04 Apr.04 Jun.04 Jul.04 Sep.04 Oct.04 Dec.04 Feb.05 Mar.05 May.05 Jul.05 Aug.05 Oct.05 Nov.05 Jan.06 Mar.06 Apr.06 Jun.06 Jul.06 Sep.06 Nov.06 Dec.06 Feb.07 Apr.07 May.07 Jul.07 Aug.07 Oct.07 Dec.07 Jan.08 Mar.08 Apr.08 Jun.08 Aug.08 The graphs above show health factors for an older and larger but less robust community. This community is more than 10 times the size of S1, but its diagnostic factors demonstrate wildly fluctuating yearly cycles with little actual improvement over time. The diagnostic factors show that the community experienced a spike in registrations toward the end of 2006, but was unable to capitalize on the infusion of new members. Responsiveness and Interaction are stable and within norms for support communities, but S2 shows a troubling decline in its Liveliness factor, which can often be remedied by adjusting the community’s structure, something that other large communities routinely do on an ongoing basis. Although still large, this community is stagnant, with a low CHI for its size. 10
  • 13. share this whitepaper conclusion Although existing community metrics yield a tremendous In fact, we see communities using the Community Health amount of data, the industry has been unable until now to Index in multiple ways: as a metric to objectively measure the use that data to achieve a meaningful measure of community health of a community, as a means to validate the perceptions health. With the introduction of the Community Health Index, of community moderators and other community experts, and companies and community experts have a way to organize as diagnostic and prescriptive drivers to help communities and compare this data against both the past performance of meet ROI and business objectives. the community itself and against other similar communities. Companies have the data, and now they have a standard to compare it against. resources 1 Butler, B. S. (2001). Membership Size, Communication Activity, and 4 Ackerman, M. S., & Starr, B. (1995). Social activity indicators: interface Sustainability: A Resource-Based Model of Online Social Structures. components for CSCW systems. In Proceedings of the 8th annual ACM INFORMATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH, 12(4), 346-362. symposium on User interface and software technology (pp. 159-168). 2 Soroka,V., & Rafaeli,S (2006). Invisible Participants: How Cultural Capital Relates 5 Cosley, D., Frankowski, D., Kiesler, S., Terveen, L., & Riedl, J. (2005). How to Lurking Behavior. Proceedings of the 15th international conference on World oversight improves member-maintained communities. In Proceedings of Wide Web (pp163-172). the SIGCHI conference on Human factors in computing systems (pp. 11-20). Portland, Oregon, USA: ACM 3 Preece, J. (2001). Sociability and usability in online communities: determining and measuring success. Behaviour and Information Technology, 347-356 Lithium social solutions helps the world’s most iconic brands to build brand nations—vibrant online communities of passionate social customers. Lithium helps top brands such as AT&T, Sephora, Univision, and PayPal build active online communities that turn customer passion into social media marketing ROI. For more information on how to create lasting competitive advantage with the social customer experience, visit lithium.com, or connect with us on Twitter, Facebook and our own brand nation – the Lithosphere. lithium.com | © 2012 Lithium Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved 11
  • 14. share this whitepaper defining the CHI health factors Our goal in introducing the Community Health Index (CHI) Traffic is to provide a standard of measurement that all online Traffic is typically measured using the standard page communities can use. To that end, this section describes the views metric. Because the page view metric can be heavily representation of the six health factors as well as a formula contaminated by robot crawlers, it is important to discount views when computing CHI. Traffic is represented by 𝑣 𝒉. for combining them. the effects of robots and use only human contributed page Members Responsiveness The standard measure for Members is the registration Members is represented by μ. The traditional time-to-response metric is the starting metric that all communities track. In the formulas that follow, point for calculating Responsiveness. Time-to-response is generally defined as the number of minutes between the first message in a message thread and the first response Content utility are posts and page views. Posts (represented by 𝑝) is the to that message. However, this metric does not consider The two standard metrics that contribute to calculating content the intervals between the first response and the second response, and so on. Therefore, we have defined a more number of posts added to the community over a period of time. 𝑅). This health factor is computed in three steps. First, robust health factor, called Responsiveness (denoted by We use page views to represent consumer demand because we compute the average response time (denoted by 𝑡 𝑅) by we have found that page views provides an accurate reflection of the relative usefulness of the posts. However, we also averaging the response time for all messages within a topic, observed that highly viewed pages tend to draw more random response time for the 𝑘 message posted in thread θ, then and then averaging that over all topics. If denotes the 𝑡𝒉 views, resulting in a snowball effect that could spuriously effect, we take the log of page views as a surrogate for user inflate the estimate of consumer demand. To dampen this the average response time may be expressed as express Content Utility (represented by U) as: demand, and thus the usefulness of the posts. We therefore (2) where Θ is the total number of threads and 𝑚θ is the number (1) of messages in thread θ. 12
  • 15. share this whitepaper numeric, 𝑡 𝑅 is a measure of time, so its value can change Unlike page views and registrations, which are purely is achieved when there are two messages between two distinct users. Furthermore, since we do not want the level depending on the unit at which is measured. When of interaction to be biased by extremely long threads, we community may be 𝑡 𝑅 = 1 day. However, if it is measured in measured in days, the response time for a hypothetical use the function to dampen their effect. Based on these hours, 𝑡 𝑅 = 24 , and if in minutes, 𝑡 𝑅 = 1440. Therefore, the requirements, Topic Interaction can be written as: second step involves converting 𝑡 𝑅 into a unit-less numeric expected response time ( 𝑡 𝑒), which defines the time that a (4) value. This can be done by defining a constant, called the user would be willing to wait before receiving a response. unit as 𝑡 𝑅. Taking the ratio of 𝑡 𝑅 to 𝑡 𝑒 would then cancel Since it is another measure of time, it should have the same Liveliness Although online communities furnish users with many out the units and render the ratio a unit-less measure of calculate the Liveliness of a community (represented by 𝐿) as activities, the most obvious action is posting. Therefore, we response time with an expected value of 1. Because we have found that response time is inversely related to community a function of the average number of posts per forum or other health, with a shorter response time typically pointing to a community division. inverse of the ratio 𝑡 𝑅/𝑡 𝑒. Therefore Responsiveness can be healthier community, the final step simply computes the (5) written as: 𝑝 𝒆 is the expected number of posts per board (a constant explained later). The arctan function with the parameter (3) where B is the total number of publicly accessible boards, 0.07 is used to give a linear behavior near the origin and a and Interaction slow saturation as its argument increases. This prevents the The conventional metric for measuring interactivity is thread indefinite inflation of liveliness by continuously reducing the depth, the average number of messages in a topic. However, number of forums or other community divisions. Therefore, we calculate Topic Interaction (denoted by 𝐼) this number does not consider the number of participants. participating in a thread (denoted by 𝑢θ) and the number of as a function of two terms: the number of unique users messages in a thread, 𝑚θ. The minimum unit of interaction 13
  • 16. share this whitepaper 𝐻 𝒐 , in terms of its Combining Health Factors After defining the health factors, the next step is to derive the functional form of the health function, factors. Since the factors are defined in such way that they are directly proportional to community health, combining the health factors simply requires multiplying them together. We also take the square root of the product to make the health function more robust against large fluctuations in any one health factor that is not correlated with the other factors. Therefore, the final form of the health function is: (6) 14
  • 17. share this whitepaper computing the community health index 𝐻 𝒐it does not a value for the expected response time ( 𝑡 𝑒) and the expected number of posts per board ( 𝑝 𝒆).Based on our analysis, Although equation (6) defines the health function ( To compute the predictive health function, we need to choose describe how we actually compute it. This section fills in the technical details that make it possible. The basic steps are: also have 50 posts per forum per week. Therefore, we set 𝑡 𝑒 we found healthy communities generally have an average • Choose a window for data aggregation. equal to 1000 minutes and 𝑝 𝒆 equal to 50 posts per forum response time of 1000 minutes or less. On average, they • Assign values to the free parameters. • Smooth the health function to more easily see the trend. for a one week aggregation window. With these parameters, • Normalize the health function for community size, age, we can compute the health function for any community over and type for comparison purposes. time via equation (6). This will give us the whole history of the community’s health. 𝐻 𝒐), the remaining Choosing a Window for Data Aggregation Smoothing The Health Function to View a Trend The first step in computing the health function is to choose Once we have the health function ( factors. For example, it is understood that θ is the thread a window for data aggregation. The aggregation window computations involve smoothing and normalizing the health count within the period of one aggregation window, and B is gives context to the variable in the definition for the health function. These computations are not difficult, but they do involve certain mathematical literacy. Depending on the application, they may or may not be necessary. Smoothing the cumulative board count up to and including the current is often desirable, because it removes extraneous noise in window of interest. The aggregation window is typically the data to give a better indication of the health progression set to be one month or one week. It is not advisable to use for the community. Normalization is only necessary when windows smaller than one week, because online behaviors comparing the health between of community users show strong weekly cyclic variation. We different communities. used a one week aggregation window for all our calculations. To accurately portray the health of a community, we require Assigning Values for Free Parameters the smoothing algorithm to use the latest data effectively as Grouping the messages via their post date into weekly they are most important for determining the current state windows, the health factors for each week can be computed of health. Although a moving average will use the most using only data within and prior to the week of interest. recent data efficiently, it introduces a lag that is undesirable. Subsequently, all the health factors are plotted and examined Kernel smoothing can track the trend in the bulk of the data over time. We usually discard the health factors for the first very accurately, but performs poorly at the two ends of the and the last window to avoid edge effects. 15
  • 18. share this whitepaper data series because it does not use that data efficiently. We 3. We compute the definite integral of the weighted derivative developed a hybrid approach that takes advantage of both to obtain the “net health” of the community. types of smoothing algorithms by using a weighted average 4. We take into account the volatility of CHI by dividing the between the two algorithms. The latest data near the end of net health by the square root of the weighted mean absolute the series are smoothed primarily with a weighted moving deviation of the health function’s derivative. The weighting average. Earlier data are smoothed primarily with kernel function is the same as the one we used in step 2 of this smoothing that uses a Hanning window as its kernel function. normalization procedure. The smoothed health function is called the health trend (denoted by without any subscript). 5. Because the weighted net health has a very large range of values, we apply the “signed-logarithm” function to the Normalizing CHI for Comparisons weighted net health so that its value is more linear. Here, the The health trend will give a good indication of the community’s signed-logarithm is defined by health throughout its history, so we can objectively compare 𝐶𝒐 the health condition of a community between any two points 6. Finally, to calibrate the result into a more commonly used in time. However, the health trend is derived from the un- 𝐶 𝑠. The result is the community health index scale, we shift the reference point by adding a constant normalized health function, so we cannot directly compare (denoted by the Greek letter χ). to the result from step 5 and then multiplied by a scaling the health between different communities. In applications, constant, such as benchmark studies, that require comparison of health across communities, we must normalize the health function. There are many different ways to normalize the health function Mathematically , the sequence of operations for computing depending on what aspect of the communities we like to CHI can be written as where compare. For benchmark studies, we normalized the health function by the following steps: 1. First we compute the smoothed derivative of (7) the health function to reveal all the positive and negative health trends throughout the history of the 𝐻 𝒐 is the health function, 𝐻 is the health trend, 𝑡 represents community. (This operation is mathematically equivalent time measured in weeks, and 𝑡 𝒐 is the current time in weeks. to taking the derivative of the health trend, because the smoothing operator commutes with the differential operator). 2. We also weight the smoothed derivative with an exponential The notation 〈∙〉 𝑡represents the sample average that takes decay that has a decay time constant of 50 weeks. This averages over the time variable, . will attenuate the effect of long past health trends on the community’s current health condition. 16