BETTER ASSESSING RENEWABLE ENERGYPROJECTS3E’s lessons learned – PV projectsFebruary 2011
INDEPENDENT EXPERT IN RENEWABLEENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY               •  Independent consultancy               •  Techni...
3E AS PREFERRED PARTNER FORFULL RISK ASSESSMENT                                Experience in renewable                    ...
SOME REFERENCES Major financial institutions   Industrial clients   Associations4/38
COMBINED KNOW-HOW STRENGTHENS DUEDILIGENCE QUALITY3E’s experience during lifetime of RE projects            Design        ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned       Design                      Realisation      Operational   ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned         Design                           Realisation             ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned         Design                   Realisation                     ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned         Design                           Realisation             ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned         Design                         Realisation               ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design                     Realisation     Operational    ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design            Realisation          Operational        ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design           Realisation                Operational   ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design               Realisation          Operational     ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design                 Realisation                Operatio...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned          Design                         Realisation              ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned          Design                     Realisation                  ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design            Realisation        Operational          ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design           Realisation         Operational          ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design              Realisation       Operational         ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design                Realisation         Operational     ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design           Realisation        Operational         Ev...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design             Realisation          Operational       ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned          Design                      Realisation                 ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned        Design               Realisation              Operational ...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned                   Design                Realisation            Op...
3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned                Design                Realisation        Operation...
3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned                           Design             Realisation        ...
Evolution PV perspectives in BelgiumNext step in project development based on future tariffs        • decreasing incentive...
Evolution PV perspectives in BelgiumActual characterization Belgian market        • large number installers & developers  ...
Evolution PV perspectives in BelgiumPossibilities for sustainable market        • reinforcement knowledge energy in buildi...
3E WORLDWIDE Brussels (BE) - Headquarters           Rue du Canal 61 Vaartstraat           B-1000 Brussels           T +32 ...
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06 jerome crotteux - 3 e

  1. 1. BETTER ASSESSING RENEWABLE ENERGYPROJECTS3E’s lessons learned – PV projectsFebruary 2011
  2. 2. INDEPENDENT EXPERT IN RENEWABLEENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY •  Independent consultancy •  Technical Advisor •  PV Expertise Projects •  Wind •  Biomass •  Energy efficiency •  Power markets •  > 15 countries •  + 20 years of experience in renewable energy •  Offices in Belgium, France, Turkey and China . Growth People •  Driven team of engineers, PhD ´s, scientists and experts •  15 nationalities •  Result driven management •  Linked to major research programs2/38
  3. 3. 3E AS PREFERRED PARTNER FORFULL RISK ASSESSMENT Experience in renewable energy for more than 20 years 3E is well positioned World-class expertise to fully assess and control risks in renewable energy projects Full risk assessment and integrated organisation Recognised globally in the renewable energy industry3/38
  4. 4. SOME REFERENCES Major financial institutions Industrial clients Associations4/38
  5. 5. COMBINED KNOW-HOW STRENGTHENS DUEDILIGENCE QUALITY3E’s experience during lifetime of RE projects Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase  Financial monitoring  Energy scan  Full project guidance  Operational monitoring based on 3E tools based on 3E tools  Project feasibility  Site progress visits  Increased reactivity  Intelligent alarms sorting  Design verification  Provisional tools commissioning  Exact diagnostics and  Module assessment remedies  Final commissioning  Yield verification  Short term predictions feedback feedback feedback feedback Due Diligence5/38
  6. 6. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Contracting phase Design and yield estimations  EPC contract  Material choice  O&M contract  Design  Surface lease contract  Performance  PPA contracts  Resources & yield6/38
  7. 7. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseEPC contracts / Framework agreementsDefects/errors Description Profit reductionIncomplete contractor’s obligations Contractor’s obligation are not exhaustive regarding the installation works. 0 - 10% Works and responsibilities as AC (Middle-Voltage) works, effective grid- connection, etc. are not included. Mainly for international projects where the frame is flue.Errors in yield/performance Yield guarantees are set up based on faulty references. Under-/overestimation of the expected yearly yield (incoherent P50).guarantees Too optimistic guarantees can lead to unexpected recurrent penalties for theFaulty measurements equipment contractor (until bankruptcy?) or low guarantees can lead to un-maintained plants. Contract’s formulae are based on un-accurate measurement equipment or 2 -12 % references (real plant’s performance is unknown). Strong overestimations are common (based on inverters production data and sensor cells).Definition of completion and Contracts should include performance verifications. The guarantee, risk and 0 - 11 % ownership should not be allowed if the real performance is not known.acceptance Mechanical/electrical completion is not enough for assessing the quality of energy plants. Acceptable test period between completion and acceptance should be taken into account. Plant could be accepted with an average performance far below the P50 scenario.7/38
  8. 8. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseEPC contracts / FrameworksDefects/errors Description Profit reductionProposed material Components should be described or list of potential components should be 0 - 60 % available for review. Components’ quality and performance can highly fluctuate (also in case of same technology). Designs are depending of chosen components. When new components are chosen, the errors’ probability is rising and uncertainty on P50 is substantially increasing.Spare parts / Provisions Proposed number of spare parts or proposed provision are clearly defined or 0-5% not covering the failure risks. Spare parts could be part of O&M. Spare parts are depending on the design concept (central or string inverters).Operational control Use of inadapted monitoring systems. Errors/failures could not be detected. 0 - 5% Unknown new brands and suppliers !!!8/38
  9. 9. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseO&M contractsDefects/errors Description Profit reductionIncomplete contractor’s obligations Limited contractor’s obligations or liabilities. Can lead to unexpected additional 0 - 10% costs. i.e.: replacement defected parts, cleaning modules, direct environment maintenance (shadow problems), etc.Errors in yield/performance Idem EPC 2 - 12 %guaranteesFaulty measurement equipmentPoorly adjusted O&M concepts O&M strategy is in depending on project location (roof, ground), direct 0 – 8% environment (industrial activities), design (centralised or decentralised inverters).Yearly degradation Too pessimistic power degradation. Can lead to irrelevant yield guarantees and 0 - 0.6% un-maintained plants. Depends on technology used.Incomplete preventive procedures Can lead to unexpected losses or unsafe situations. 0 - 5% i.e.: tests of electrical switches, grounding issues, no detection of yield losses due to soiling, high cables losses, inefficient inverters, etc.9/38
  10. 10. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseSurface lease contractsDefects/errors Description Profit reductionIncomplete contractor’s or owner Limited contractor’s or owner’s (tenant’s) obligations or liabilities. 0 - 10%obligations i.e.: roof and environment maintenance, stability issues, site consumptions, roof access, electrical maintenance, etc.PPA contractsDefects/errors Description Profit reductionShort term contracts Long term cash flow conditions are not ensured. 0 – 0.5%Non market conform prices Underestimation of the purchase prices. 0 – 0.5%No indexation Absence of price indexations. 0 - 0.4%10/38
  11. 11. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Contracting phase Design and yield estimations  EPC contract  Material choice  O&M contract  Design  Surface lease contract  Performance  PPA contracts  Resources & yield11/38
  12. 12. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Material choiceModules •  Questions: 1.  What constitutes a “good quality” module?  basic quality. 2.  How “reliable” will the module be in the field?  reliability. •  New/unknown brands New technology  High risk; impact on profit: 0 – 60% Toll manufacturing12/38
  13. 13. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Module Quality & Reliability Module certifications   Based on IEC, EN, UL or other standards. Basic   IEC61215 (cSi), IEC61646 (thin film)  design qualification. Quality • Module performance capability in accelerated environmental test.   IEC61730, UL1730  safety qualification. Limitations   Insufficient statistical data from PV fields: Reliability   lack of data for reliability standards.   IEC61215 & 61646 do not address long ? term reliability, ie. design qualification does not imply module’s reliability.13/38
  14. 14. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – 3E Module Technical Assessment Implemented Module Technical Assessment manufacturing & quality practice •  Focus on mid-term risks (documentation) •  Complimentary to IEC evaluation •  Detailed evaluation of manufacturing practice and quality management + •  High expertise required On-site factory evaluation •  To-date: 22% of assessed unknown module brands are not satisfactory.14/38
  15. 15. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Material choiceInverters • new unknown brands  lower risk as mostly EU products future: will be needed (trend in other countries to use non-EU inverters / new design concepts) • power electronics  more expertise from manufacturers • reduced impact on profit: 0 – 25% (max. in case central inverters) • inverter is assembly of interchangeable parts If failure, component can be replaced • main potential errors • use of unsuited and inefficient inverters impact on profit: 0 - 6% • installation errors (IP class, ventilation, etc.)  invalid product guarantee15/38 • insufficient safety (DC switches, etc.) • incompliance with national grid connection codes
  16. 16. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – DesignDefects/errors Description Profit reduction (probability)AC diagrams not supplied Losses on AC cables are unknown. 0 - 2% (50%)Flash tests not supplied Effective power and mismatch losses are unknown. 0 – 3% (25%)Grid-connection study supplied Compatibility between grid capacity and plant power is unknown. 0 - 20 % (38%)Mounting structure is unknown Compatibility with roof stability and chosen module is unknown. 0 – 20% (19%)Error in sizing inverters Inverters are undersized. Affecting the PR. 0 – 3% (6%)Error in connection modules to PV arrays with different characteristics are connected to the same inverter 0 – 3% (38%) (MPP tracker). Non-optimal system.invertersDC diagrams not supplied Losses on DC cables are unknown. 0 – 2% (13%)Undersized DC cables High losses and overheating issues. 0 – 5% (13%)Stability report is not respected Roof is not strong enough for proposed PV system. 0 – 20% (19%)16/38
  17. 17. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – DesignDefects/errors Description Profit reduction (probability)Shadow is underestimated Expected losses are underestimated. 0 - 8% (6%)Absence on product warranties Proposed material does not have the minimal warranties. 0 – 5% (12%)Use of inefficient inverters Inverters with low efficient are proposed. 0 – 5% (6%)17/38
  18. 18. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Performance • portfolios under full scope: actual PR = 82.6% • if design verification was not performed and issues resolved  lower PR • difference between 3E’s PR estimation during design verification and actual PR = 1.9%  verification on design level required for obtaining high PRs  3E’s PR estimations are accurate (< theoretical models uncertainties)18/38
  19. 19. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Resource and yield P50 estimation • benchmark of data sources is required • local effects can always occurs and could affect the results • Belgium  relatively flat profile but differences in uncertainties up to 6% • New PVGIS data base: tentative to improve accuracy • 3E integrates it in the benchmarked results but accuracy is not better than other sources • Climate impact not proven and historical data analysis (KMI – 3E study) does not show any significant trend for the increasing of long term irradiation averages19/38
  20. 20. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Resource and yield P90 estimation NB: P90 is not 90% of PVGIS’ P50 • PVGIS’ P50 is not taking into account design details and subtleties  Estimated error of +/-10% • P90 is not 90% of a P50 value  Estimated error of +/- 5 to12% (Belgium: +/- 6%) • P90 is a statically calculated value based on long term daily values and including precise combination of all uncertainties • uncertainties on models, algorithms (depending on technology used, etc.)20/38 • standard deviations
  21. 21. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseDesign and yield estimations – Resource and yield High yields possible – P50 > 850 kWh/kWp.y But only thanks to higher system performance And not thanks to higher irradiation averages !!! Low standard deviations and relatively low uncertainties in comparison with other RE technologies  lower risk on resources’ availability21/38
  22. 22. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseRealisation phase – Installation risks Site progress visits for MWp systems • how fast an issue is identified, how easier the implementation of the solution and how lower the risks are • visits at crucial moments and not only mechanical expertise Sample based site progress visits for smaller systems • site visits expensive for small projects • solution: randomly samples => cost reduction 25% and risk by 50%22/38
  23. 23. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseRealisation phase – Installation risks Provisional commissioning • state-of-the-art protocol • visual inspection, measurements, performance verification • >3 weeks between grid-connection and tests (accuracy of performance measurement) • expertise for right diagnostics Final commissioning • reduced scope • still important as some errors only identifiable after several operational months23/38
  24. 24. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseRealisation – CommissioningDefects/errors Description Profit reduction (probability)Poor monitoring system Alarms are not taken into account. Maintenance control is low. Performance 0 - 20% (43%) decreases are not identified (not working inverters – 11%) and solved.Modules and mounting structure The mounting structure and the modules are not correctly installed. Roof 0 – 5% (29%) damages are possible.not correctly mountedDifficult roof access The roof access is difficult. Maintenance operations will be done under poor 0 - 20 % (3%) and unsafe conditions.Differences between design and Modifications between the provided design and the reality on site. 0 – 5% (11%)as-builtBadly installed inverters Inverters are not installed in accordance with supplier’s recommendations. 0 – 9% (14%) Guarantees are not applicable or inverters are inefficient.Unexpected shadow Obstacles were not mentioned in the design documents and are casting 0 – 8% (3%) shadow on the plant.Damaged components Electrical boxes, cables, inverters, modules, etc. were damaged during 0 – 2% (11%) installation works and were not replaced.Dirt deposition Unexpected dirt deposition due to direct environment. 0 – 2% (6%)24/38
  25. 25. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phaseConclusions • full scope still needed due to learning curve experience by installers • portfolio risks and contractor’s overestimated guarantees  bankruptcy risk not always insured • very dynamic market  bottlenecks and thus risks change rapidly • new module manufacturer  assessment and expertise required for quality evaluations (dynamic and maintained eligibility lists possible) • multi-disciplinary expertise required senior experts expertise in module manufacturing PhD experts meteorological experts 3E’s PV team experts with RE experts commissioning experts modelling experts 11 nationalities25/38
  26. 26. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Problem: Failure or malfunctioning of specific components in solar park Failure Consequence: important losses on annual yield of the park Solution: Moniotring by exception and 24/7 alarm management – inverter based Problem: unforeseen or unexpected shading on installation Shading Consequence: important losses on yield of the park Solution: Smart alerts to indicate unexpected shading (trend analysis) – performance based Problem: inaccuracy of sensor data / single sensor on site / sensor failure Irradiation Consequence: inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 8% Solution: benchmarking of sensor data with external satellite data Problem: inaccuracy of inverter meter reading Meter Consequence: additional inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 3% Solution: Green current meter reading Problem: installation errors, not reported in inverters (wiring errors) Installation Consequence: unexpected system losses which arise in annual verification errors Solution: 24/7 monitoring with inverter performance checking26/38
  27. 27. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Case Detailed description Impact on annual yield Problem: Wiring error at string level during installation Case specific: 2,3% Wiring Consequence: Performance loss at 1 inverter No intervention:13% Solution: Field intervention and re-wiring Problem: Grass grown too high and shaded modules Case specific: 3,5% Shadow Consequence: Daily performance loss due to schadow No intervention:28% Solution: Field intervention and maintenance Problem: Underperformance of 1 of the 4 inverters Case specific: 1,1 % Component Consequence: Daily performance losses in the morning No intervention:18% Solution: Field intervention / change power electronics Problem: Inverter disconnection due to earthing error Case specific: 0,4 % Earthing Consequence: Daily disconnection of inverters No intervention:3% Solution: Field intervention / change wiring27/38
  28. 28. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Owner / Investor O&M“I can’t follow up the financial “I must minimize my operational& guaranteed performance of costs while meeting the my entire portfolio” contractual guarantees” Business Portal Operations & Maintenance Portal• Report from park to portfolio level Stakeholders •  5‘ / 10’’ granularity analysis 1• Mirror to business plan of energy • Technical parameters reporting• Report system and resource perf. • Receive all alerts• Report lost income performance • Alerts management• Follow up contractual guarantees • Interventions management• Receive critical business alerts • Instant portfolio monitoring Others - Energy consumers - Turbine manuf. - Compo. Manuf. - Traders - Dispatchers - DSO/TSO Other Portals • Marketing portal • sub-contractor portals 28/38
  29. 29. Evolution PV perspectives in BelgiumNext step in project development based on future tariffs • decreasing incentives ⇒ the only solution for converging to grid parity • proposed new scheme • bad communication • no support for innovation / intelligence • increasing hurry for new projects before July ⇒ lowering engineering quality and material choice ⇒ no space for roof membranes renovations • finalisation & commissioning during summer • high dependency evolution module prices • increasing surface leasing prices • bank financing limitations due to 15 years period29/38
  30. 30. Evolution PV perspectives in BelgiumActual characterization Belgian market • large number installers & developers • high population & building density • low industrial/engineering knowledge • high installed peak power capacity / inhabitant • low EPC prices due to high competition, rooftop systems • number smaller installers moving to large scale systems => Intensive competition leads to higher technical risks: • cheapest material choice • surpassed roofs’ capacities • uncontrolled risks in proposed contracts30/38
  31. 31. Evolution PV perspectives in BelgiumPossibilities for sustainable market • reinforcement knowledge energy in buildings for better energy integration • development BIPV experience – special incentives for pilot projects? => privileging onsite consumption • research/innovation grid interaction, short term forecast • development new mounting system (aerodynamics, roof integration) • use yield optimizer for better efficiencies on roofs • involving industries in research & concept/product developments => ensuring diversity, expertise and internationalisation perspectives • participation from Belgian companies in foreign start-ups • improving quality residential systems => installers quality labels • reinforce communication & co-development under professional clusters31/38
  32. 32. 3E WORLDWIDE Brussels (BE) - Headquarters Rue du Canal 61 Vaartstraat B-1000 Brussels T +32 2 217 58 68 F +32 2 219 79 89 Toulouse (FR) 9 rue Faubourg Bonnefoy F-31500 Toulouse T +33 5 81 18 07 70 Beijing (CN) Kuntai Building 1220, Chaowai Avenue 10 100020 Beijing M +86 159 2155 2860 Chinese – T +86 (10) 65995709 M +86 159 0148 5126 English Istanbul (TR) M +90 542 723 55 70 Turkish - M +32 472 83 94 24 English
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