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BETTER ASSESSING RENEWABLE ENERGY
PROJECTS
3E’s lessons learned – PV projects
February 2011
INDEPENDENT EXPERT IN RENEWABLE
ENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY

               •  Independent consultancy
               •  Technical Advisor
               •  PV
   Expertise




                                                                               Projects
               •  Wind
               •  Biomass
               •  Energy efficiency
               •  Power markets
               •  > 15 countries

                                            •  + 20 years of experience in
                                               renewable energy
                                            •  Offices in Belgium, France,
                                               Turkey and China .
   Growth




                                                                               People
                                            •  Driven team of engineers, PhD
                                               ´s, scientists and experts
                                            •  15 nationalities
                                            •  Result driven management
                                            •  Linked to major research
                                               programs
2/38
3E AS PREFERRED PARTNER FOR
FULL RISK ASSESSMENT


                                Experience in renewable
                                 energy for more than
                                       20 years



       3E is well positioned     World-class expertise
        to fully assess and
          control risks in
         renewable energy
              projects         Full risk assessment and
                                integrated organisation



                               Recognised globally in the
                               renewable energy industry



3/38
SOME REFERENCES



 Major financial institutions   Industrial clients   Associations




4/38
COMBINED KNOW-HOW STRENGTHENS DUE
DILIGENCE QUALITY


3E’s experience during lifetime of RE projects



            Design                Realisation              Operational                     Evaluation
            phase                   phase                    phase                           phase
                                                                                   Financial monitoring
  Energy scan            Full project guidance    Operational monitoring
                                                                                    based on 3E tools
                                                     based on 3E tools
  Project feasibility    Site progress visits                                    Increased reactivity
                                                    Intelligent alarms sorting
  Design verification    Provisional                                              tools
                           commissioning            Exact diagnostics and
  Module assessment                                 remedies
                          Final commissioning
  Yield verification                               Short term predictions

            feedback             feedback                   feedback                     feedback




                                           Due Diligence

5/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

       Design                      Realisation      Operational               Evaluation
       phase                         phase            phase                     phase




       Contracting phase                         Design and yield estimations

                 EPC contract                           Material choice
                 O&M contract                           Design
                 Surface lease contract                 Performance
                 PPA contracts                          Resources & yield




6/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

         Design                           Realisation                                   Operational                        Evaluation
         phase                              phase                                         phase                              phase

EPC contracts / Framework agreements
Defects/errors                        Description                                                                     Profit reduction

Incomplete contractor’s obligations   Contractor’s obligation are not exhaustive regarding the installation works.              0 - 10%
                                      Works and responsibilities as AC (Middle-Voltage) works, effective grid-
                                      connection, etc. are not included.
                                      Mainly for international projects where the frame is flue.

Errors in yield/performance           Yield guarantees are set up based on faulty references. Under-/overestimation
                                      of the expected yearly yield (incoherent P50).
guarantees
                                      Too optimistic guarantees can lead to unexpected recurrent penalties for the
Faulty measurements equipment         contractor (until bankruptcy?) or low guarantees can lead to un-maintained
                                      plants.
                                      Contract’s formulae are based on un-accurate measurement equipment or                    2 -12 %
                                      references (real plant’s performance is unknown). Strong overestimations are
                                      common (based on inverters production data and sensor cells).

Definition of completion and          Contracts should include performance verifications. The guarantee, risk and              0 - 11 %
                                      ownership should not be allowed if the real performance is not known.
acceptance                            Mechanical/electrical completion is not enough for assessing the quality of
                                      energy plants.
                                      Acceptable test period between completion and acceptance should be taken
                                      into account.
                                      Plant could be accepted with an average performance far below the P50
                                      scenario.



7/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

         Design                   Realisation                                   Operational                            Evaluation
         phase                      phase                                         phase                                  phase

EPC contracts / Frameworks
Defects/errors                Description                                                                         Profit reduction

Proposed material             Components should be described or list of potential components should be                      0 - 60 %
                              available for review.
                              Components’ quality and performance can highly fluctuate (also in case of
                              same technology).
                              Designs are depending of chosen components. When new components are
                              chosen, the errors’ probability is rising and uncertainty on P50 is substantially
                              increasing.

Spare parts / Provisions      Proposed number of spare parts or proposed provision are clearly defined or                   0-5%
                              not covering the failure risks.
                              Spare parts could be part of O&M. Spare parts are depending on the design
                              concept (central or string inverters).

Operational control           Use of inadapted monitoring systems. Errors/failures could not be detected.                    0 - 5%




                           Unknown new brands and suppliers !!!

8/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

         Design                           Realisation                                   Operational                             Evaluation
         phase                              phase                                         phase                                   phase

O&M contracts
Defects/errors                        Description                                                                          Profit reduction

Incomplete contractor’s obligations   Limited contractor’s obligations or liabilities. Can lead to unexpected additional             0 - 10%
                                      costs.
                                      i.e.: replacement defected parts, cleaning modules, direct environment
                                      maintenance (shadow problems), etc.

Errors in yield/performance           Idem EPC                                                                                      2 - 12 %
guarantees
Faulty measurement equipment
Poorly adjusted O&M concepts          O&M strategy is in depending on project location (roof, ground), direct                        0 – 8%
                                      environment (industrial activities), design (centralised or decentralised
                                      inverters).

Yearly degradation                    Too pessimistic power degradation. Can lead to irrelevant yield guarantees and                0 - 0.6%
                                      un-maintained plants. Depends on technology used.




Incomplete preventive procedures      Can lead to unexpected losses or unsafe situations.                                            0 - 5%
                                      i.e.: tests of electrical switches, grounding issues, no detection of yield losses
                                      due to soiling, high cables losses, inefficient inverters, etc.




9/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

         Design                         Realisation                                   Operational                       Evaluation
         phase                            phase                                         phase                             phase

Surface lease contracts
Defects/errors                     Description                                                                    Profit reduction

Incomplete contractor’s or owner   Limited contractor’s or owner’s (tenant’s) obligations or liabilities.                   0 - 10%
obligations                        i.e.: roof and environment maintenance, stability issues, site consumptions,
                                   roof access, electrical maintenance, etc.



PPA contracts
Defects/errors                     Description                                                                    Profit reduction

Short term contracts               Long term cash flow conditions are not ensured.                                         0 – 0.5%


Non market conform prices          Underestimation of the purchase prices.                                                 0 – 0.5%


No indexation                      Absence of price indexations.                                                           0 - 0.4%




10/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design                     Realisation     Operational                Evaluation
        phase                        phase           phase                      phase




        Contracting phase                        Design and yield estimations

                  EPC contract                          Material choice
                  O&M contract                          Design
                  Surface lease contract                Performance
                  PPA contracts                         Resources & yield




11/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design            Realisation          Operational         Evaluation
        phase               phase                phase               phase

Design and yield estimations – Material choice
Modules
  •  Questions:
        1.  What constitutes a “good quality” module?        basic quality.
        2.  How “reliable” will the module be in the field?  reliability.


  •  New/unknown brands
   New technology                    High risk; impact on profit: 0 – 60%
   Toll manufacturing


12/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design           Realisation                Operational                Evaluation
        phase              phase                      phase                      phase

Design and yield estimations – Module Quality & Reliability

                                             Module certifications
                      Based on IEC, EN, UL or other standards.
   Basic
                      IEC61215 (cSi), IEC61646 (thin film)  design qualification.
   Quality
                         • Module performance capability in accelerated environmental test.
                      IEC61730, UL1730  safety qualification.


                                         Limitations
                      Insufficient statistical data from PV fields:
 Reliability               lack of data for reliability standards.
                           IEC61215 & 61646 do not address long
                                                                                            ?
                             term reliability, ie. design qualification does
                             not imply module’s reliability.

13/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design               Realisation          Operational          Evaluation
        phase                  phase                phase                phase

Design and yield estimations – 3E Module Technical Assessment

                                                                  Implemented
              Module Technical Assessment                       manufacturing &
                                                                 quality practice
        •  Focus on mid-term risks                              (documentation)
        •  Complimentary to IEC                                    evaluation
        •  Detailed evaluation of manufacturing
           practice and quality management                            +
        •  High expertise required                               On-site factory
                                                                  evaluation


   •  To-date: 22% of assessed unknown module brands are not satisfactory.

14/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design                 Realisation                Operational                Evaluation
        phase                    phase                      phase                      phase

Design and yield estimations – Material choice
Inverters
  • new unknown brands  lower risk as mostly EU products
        future: will be needed (trend in other countries to use non-EU inverters / new
        design concepts)
  • power electronics  more expertise from manufacturers
  • reduced impact on profit: 0 – 25% (max. in case central inverters)
  • inverter is assembly of interchangeable parts
                If failure, component can be replaced
  • main potential errors
           • use of unsuited and inefficient inverters
                    impact on profit: 0 - 6%
             • installation errors (IP class, ventilation, etc.)  invalid product guarantee
15/38        • insufficient safety (DC switches, etc.)
             • incompliance with national grid connection codes
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

          Design                         Realisation                                 Operational                        Evaluation
          phase                            phase                                       phase                              phase

Design and yield estimations – Design
Defects/errors                      Description                                                                   Profit reduction
                                                                                                                  (probability)
AC diagrams not supplied            Losses on AC cables are unknown.                                                      0 - 2% (50%)


Flash tests not supplied            Effective power and mismatch losses are unknown.                                      0 – 3% (25%)


Grid-connection study supplied      Compatibility between grid capacity and plant power is unknown.                      0 - 20 % (38%)


Mounting structure is unknown       Compatibility with roof stability and chosen module is unknown.                      0 – 20% (19%)


Error in sizing inverters           Inverters are undersized. Affecting the PR.                                           0 – 3% (6%)


Error in connection modules to      PV arrays with different characteristics are connected to the same inverter           0 – 3% (38%)
                                    (MPP tracker). Non-optimal system.
inverters
DC diagrams not supplied            Losses on DC cables are unknown.                                                      0 – 2% (13%)


Undersized DC cables                High losses and overheating issues.                                                   0 – 5% (13%)


Stability report is not respected   Roof is not strong enough for proposed PV system.                                    0 – 20% (19%)




16/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

          Design                     Realisation                              Operational         Evaluation
          phase                        phase                                    phase               phase

Design and yield estimations – Design
Defects/errors                  Description                                                 Profit reduction
                                                                                            (probability)
Shadow is underestimated        Expected losses are underestimated.                                 0 - 8% (6%)


Absence on product warranties   Proposed material does not have the minimal warranties.             0 – 5% (12%)


Use of inefficient inverters    Inverters with low efficient are proposed.                          0 – 5% (6%)




17/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design            Realisation        Operational          Evaluation
        phase               phase              phase                phase

Design and yield estimations – Performance
 • portfolios under full scope: actual PR = 82.6%

 • if design verification was not performed and issues resolved
            lower PR

 • difference between 3E’s PR estimation during design verification
 and actual PR = 1.9%

             verification on design level required for obtaining high PRs
             3E’s PR estimations are accurate
                      (< theoretical models uncertainties)

18/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design           Realisation         Operational          Evaluation
        phase              phase               phase                phase

Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield
   P50 estimation
   • benchmark of data sources is required
        • local effects can always occurs and could affect the results
        • Belgium  relatively flat profile but differences in uncertainties up to 6%
        • New PVGIS data base: tentative to improve accuracy
             • 3E integrates it in the benchmarked results but accuracy is not
             better than other sources
   • Climate impact not proven and historical data analysis (KMI – 3E study)
   does not show any significant trend for the increasing of long term irradiation
   averages


19/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design              Realisation       Operational          Evaluation
        phase                 phase             phase                phase

Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield
   P90 estimation

                 NB: P90 is not 90% of PVGIS’ P50

          • PVGIS’ P50 is not taking into account design details and subtleties
               Estimated error of +/-10%
          • P90 is not 90% of a P50 value
               Estimated error of +/- 5 to12% (Belgium: +/- 6%)
          • P90 is a statically calculated value based on long term daily values
          and including precise combination of all uncertainties
                    • uncertainties on models, algorithms (depending on
                    technology used, etc.)
20/38               • standard deviations
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design                Realisation         Operational        Evaluation
        phase                   phase               phase              phase

Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield


  High yields possible – P50 > 850 kWh/kWp.y

                 But only thanks to higher system performance
                 And not thanks to higher irradiation averages !!!

  Low standard deviations and relatively low uncertainties in comparison
  with other RE technologies  lower risk on resources’ availability




21/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design           Realisation        Operational         Evaluation
        phase              phase              phase               phase

Realisation phase – Installation risks

  Site progress visits for MWp systems
  • how fast an issue is identified, how easier the implementation of the
  solution and how lower the risks are
  • visits at crucial moments and not only mechanical expertise


  Sample based site progress visits for smaller systems
  • site visits expensive for small projects
  • solution: randomly samples => cost reduction 25% and risk by 50%



22/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design             Realisation          Operational          Evaluation
        phase                phase                phase                phase

Realisation phase – Installation risks
  Provisional commissioning
  • state-of-the-art protocol
       • visual inspection, measurements, performance verification
       • >3 weeks between grid-connection and tests
                      (accuracy of performance measurement)
       • expertise for right diagnostics

  Final commissioning
        • reduced scope
        • still important as some errors only identifiable after several
        operational months

23/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

          Design                      Realisation                                Operational                          Evaluation
          phase                         phase                                      phase                                phase

Realisation – Commissioning
Defects/errors                   Description                                                                    Profit reduction
                                                                                                                (probability)
Poor monitoring system           Alarms are not taken into account. Maintenance control is low. Performance             0 - 20% (43%)
                                 decreases are not identified (not working inverters – 11%) and solved.

Modules and mounting structure   The mounting structure and the modules are not correctly installed. Roof               0 – 5% (29%)
                                 damages are possible.
not correctly mounted
Difficult roof access            The roof access is difficult. Maintenance operations will be done under poor           0 - 20 % (3%)
                                 and unsafe conditions.

Differences between design and   Modifications between the provided design and the reality on site.                     0 – 5% (11%)
as-built
Badly installed inverters        Inverters are not installed in accordance with supplier’s recommendations.             0 – 9% (14%)
                                 Guarantees are not applicable or inverters are inefficient.

Unexpected shadow                Obstacles were not mentioned in the design documents and are casting                   0 – 8% (3%)
                                 shadow on the plant.

Damaged components               Electrical boxes, cables, inverters, modules, etc. were damaged during                 0 – 2% (11%)
                                 installation works and were not replaced.

Dirt deposition                  Unexpected dirt deposition due to direct environment.                                  0 – 2% (6%)




24/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned

        Design               Realisation              Operational              Evaluation
        phase                  phase                    phase                    phase

Conclusions
         • full scope still needed due to learning curve experience by installers
              • portfolio risks and contractor’s overestimated guarantees 
              bankruptcy risk not always insured
         • very dynamic market  bottlenecks and thus risks change rapidly
         • new module manufacturer  assessment and expertise required for
         quality evaluations (dynamic and maintained eligibility lists possible)
         • multi-disciplinary expertise required
                                           senior experts
                                           expertise in module manufacturing
                                           PhD experts
                                           meteorological experts
         3E’s PV team                      experts with RE experts
                                           commissioning experts
                                           modelling experts
                                           11 nationalities
25/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
                   Design                Realisation            Operational               Evaluation
                   phase                   phase                  phase                     phase




                Problem: Failure or malfunctioning of specific components in solar park
   Failure      Consequence: important losses on annual yield of the park
                Solution: Moniotring by exception and 24/7 alarm management – inverter based

                Problem: unforeseen or unexpected shading on installation
  Shading       Consequence: important losses on yield of the park
                Solution: Smart alerts to indicate unexpected shading (trend analysis) – performance based

                Problem: inaccuracy of sensor data / single sensor on site / sensor failure
 Irradiation    Consequence: inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 8%
                Solution: benchmarking of sensor data with external satellite data

                Problem: inaccuracy of inverter meter reading
   Meter        Consequence: additional inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 3%
                Solution: Green current meter reading

                Problem: installation errors, not reported in inverters (wiring errors)
 Installation   Consequence: unexpected system losses which arise in annual verification
    errors
                Solution: 24/7 monitoring with inverter performance checking




26/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
                Design                Realisation        Operational       Evaluation
                phase                   phase              phase             phase


        Case   Detailed description                                             Impact on annual yield



               Problem: Wiring error at string level during installation
                                                                                 Case specific: 2,3%
    Wiring     Consequence: Performance loss at 1 inverter
                                                                                 No intervention:13%
               Solution: Field intervention and re-wiring


               Problem: Grass grown too high and shaded modules
                                                                                 Case specific: 3,5%
   Shadow      Consequence: Daily performance loss due to schadow
                                                                                 No intervention:28%
               Solution: Field intervention and maintenance


               Problem: Underperformance of 1 of the 4 inverters
                                                                                 Case specific: 1,1 %
 Component     Consequence: Daily performance losses in the morning
                                                                                 No intervention:18%
               Solution: Field intervention / change power electronics


               Problem: Inverter disconnection due to earthing error
                                                                                 Case specific: 0,4 %
   Earthing    Consequence: Daily disconnection of inverters
                                                                                 No intervention:3%
               Solution: Field intervention / change wiring


27/38
3E’s long term track record PV projects –
 lessons learned
                           Design             Realisation            Operational            Evaluation
                           phase                phase                  phase                  phase




      Owner / Investor                                                                                 O&M
“I can’t follow up the financial                                                          “I must minimize my operational
& guaranteed performance of                                                                   costs while meeting the
      my entire portfolio”                                                                    contractual guarantees”

           Business Portal                                                                 Operations & Maintenance
                                                                                                        Portal
• Report from park to portfolio level             Stakeholders                         •  5‘ / 10’’ granularity analysis
                                                                                        1
• Mirror to business plan                           of energy                          • Technical parameters reporting
• Report system and resource perf.                                                     • Receive all alerts
• Report lost income                              performance                          • Alerts management
• Follow up contractual guarantees                                                     • Interventions management
• Receive critical business alerts                                                     • Instant portfolio monitoring


                                               Others
                                        - Energy consumers
                                        - Turbine manuf.
                                        - Compo. Manuf.
                                        - Traders
                                        - Dispatchers
                                        - DSO/TSO                       Other Portals

                                                            • Marketing portal
                                                            • sub-contractor portals
 28/38
Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium


Next step in project development based on future tariffs

        • decreasing incentives
             ⇒ the only solution for converging to grid parity
        • proposed new scheme
              • bad communication
              • no support for innovation / intelligence
              • increasing hurry for new projects before July
                    ⇒ lowering engineering quality and material choice
                    ⇒ no space for roof membranes renovations
              • finalisation & commissioning during summer
        • high dependency evolution module prices
        • increasing surface leasing prices
        • bank financing limitations due to 15 years period




29/38
Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium


Actual characterization Belgian market

        • large number installers & developers
        • high population & building density
        • low industrial/engineering knowledge
        • high installed peak power capacity / inhabitant
        • low EPC prices due to high competition, rooftop systems
        • number smaller installers moving to large scale systems
                   => Intensive competition leads to higher technical risks:
                        • cheapest material choice
                        • surpassed roofs’ capacities
                        • uncontrolled risks in proposed contracts




30/38
Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium



Possibilities for sustainable market

        • reinforcement knowledge energy in buildings for better energy integration
        • development BIPV experience – special incentives for pilot projects?
                  => privileging onsite consumption
        • research/innovation grid interaction, short term forecast
        • development new mounting system (aerodynamics, roof integration)
        • use yield optimizer for better efficiencies on roofs
        • involving industries in research & concept/product developments
             => ensuring diversity, expertise and internationalisation perspectives
        • participation from Belgian companies in foreign start-ups
        • improving quality residential systems => installers quality labels
        • reinforce communication & co-development under professional clusters


31/38
3E WORLDWIDE


 Brussels (BE) - Headquarters
           Rue du Canal 61 Vaartstraat
           B-1000 Brussels
           T +32 2 217 58 68 F +32 2 219 79 89
 Toulouse (FR)
           9 rue Faubourg Bonnefoy
           F-31500 Toulouse
           T +33 5 81 18 07 70
 Beijing (CN)
           Kuntai Building 1220, Chaowai Avenue 10
           100020 Beijing
           M +86 159 2155 2860 Chinese – T +86 (10) 65995709
           M +86 159 0148 5126 English
 Istanbul (TR)
           M +90 542 723 55 70 Turkish - M +32 472 83 94 24 English

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06 jerome crotteux - 3 e

  • 1. BETTER ASSESSING RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS 3E’s lessons learned – PV projects February 2011
  • 2. INDEPENDENT EXPERT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY •  Independent consultancy •  Technical Advisor •  PV Expertise Projects •  Wind •  Biomass •  Energy efficiency •  Power markets •  > 15 countries •  + 20 years of experience in renewable energy •  Offices in Belgium, France, Turkey and China . Growth People •  Driven team of engineers, PhD ´s, scientists and experts •  15 nationalities •  Result driven management •  Linked to major research programs 2/38
  • 3. 3E AS PREFERRED PARTNER FOR FULL RISK ASSESSMENT Experience in renewable energy for more than 20 years 3E is well positioned World-class expertise to fully assess and control risks in renewable energy projects Full risk assessment and integrated organisation Recognised globally in the renewable energy industry 3/38
  • 4. SOME REFERENCES Major financial institutions Industrial clients Associations 4/38
  • 5. COMBINED KNOW-HOW STRENGTHENS DUE DILIGENCE QUALITY 3E’s experience during lifetime of RE projects Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase  Financial monitoring  Energy scan  Full project guidance  Operational monitoring based on 3E tools based on 3E tools  Project feasibility  Site progress visits  Increased reactivity  Intelligent alarms sorting  Design verification  Provisional tools commissioning  Exact diagnostics and  Module assessment remedies  Final commissioning  Yield verification  Short term predictions feedback feedback feedback feedback Due Diligence 5/38
  • 6. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Contracting phase Design and yield estimations  EPC contract  Material choice  O&M contract  Design  Surface lease contract  Performance  PPA contracts  Resources & yield 6/38
  • 7. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase EPC contracts / Framework agreements Defects/errors Description Profit reduction Incomplete contractor’s obligations Contractor’s obligation are not exhaustive regarding the installation works. 0 - 10% Works and responsibilities as AC (Middle-Voltage) works, effective grid- connection, etc. are not included. Mainly for international projects where the frame is flue. Errors in yield/performance Yield guarantees are set up based on faulty references. Under-/overestimation of the expected yearly yield (incoherent P50). guarantees Too optimistic guarantees can lead to unexpected recurrent penalties for the Faulty measurements equipment contractor (until bankruptcy?) or low guarantees can lead to un-maintained plants. Contract’s formulae are based on un-accurate measurement equipment or 2 -12 % references (real plant’s performance is unknown). Strong overestimations are common (based on inverters production data and sensor cells). Definition of completion and Contracts should include performance verifications. The guarantee, risk and 0 - 11 % ownership should not be allowed if the real performance is not known. acceptance Mechanical/electrical completion is not enough for assessing the quality of energy plants. Acceptable test period between completion and acceptance should be taken into account. Plant could be accepted with an average performance far below the P50 scenario. 7/38
  • 8. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase EPC contracts / Frameworks Defects/errors Description Profit reduction Proposed material Components should be described or list of potential components should be 0 - 60 % available for review. Components’ quality and performance can highly fluctuate (also in case of same technology). Designs are depending of chosen components. When new components are chosen, the errors’ probability is rising and uncertainty on P50 is substantially increasing. Spare parts / Provisions Proposed number of spare parts or proposed provision are clearly defined or 0-5% not covering the failure risks. Spare parts could be part of O&M. Spare parts are depending on the design concept (central or string inverters). Operational control Use of inadapted monitoring systems. Errors/failures could not be detected. 0 - 5% Unknown new brands and suppliers !!! 8/38
  • 9. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase O&M contracts Defects/errors Description Profit reduction Incomplete contractor’s obligations Limited contractor’s obligations or liabilities. Can lead to unexpected additional 0 - 10% costs. i.e.: replacement defected parts, cleaning modules, direct environment maintenance (shadow problems), etc. Errors in yield/performance Idem EPC 2 - 12 % guarantees Faulty measurement equipment Poorly adjusted O&M concepts O&M strategy is in depending on project location (roof, ground), direct 0 – 8% environment (industrial activities), design (centralised or decentralised inverters). Yearly degradation Too pessimistic power degradation. Can lead to irrelevant yield guarantees and 0 - 0.6% un-maintained plants. Depends on technology used. Incomplete preventive procedures Can lead to unexpected losses or unsafe situations. 0 - 5% i.e.: tests of electrical switches, grounding issues, no detection of yield losses due to soiling, high cables losses, inefficient inverters, etc. 9/38
  • 10. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Surface lease contracts Defects/errors Description Profit reduction Incomplete contractor’s or owner Limited contractor’s or owner’s (tenant’s) obligations or liabilities. 0 - 10% obligations i.e.: roof and environment maintenance, stability issues, site consumptions, roof access, electrical maintenance, etc. PPA contracts Defects/errors Description Profit reduction Short term contracts Long term cash flow conditions are not ensured. 0 – 0.5% Non market conform prices Underestimation of the purchase prices. 0 – 0.5% No indexation Absence of price indexations. 0 - 0.4% 10/38
  • 11. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Contracting phase Design and yield estimations  EPC contract  Material choice  O&M contract  Design  Surface lease contract  Performance  PPA contracts  Resources & yield 11/38
  • 12. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Material choice Modules •  Questions: 1.  What constitutes a “good quality” module?  basic quality. 2.  How “reliable” will the module be in the field?  reliability. •  New/unknown brands New technology  High risk; impact on profit: 0 – 60% Toll manufacturing 12/38
  • 13. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Module Quality & Reliability Module certifications   Based on IEC, EN, UL or other standards. Basic   IEC61215 (cSi), IEC61646 (thin film)  design qualification. Quality • Module performance capability in accelerated environmental test.   IEC61730, UL1730  safety qualification. Limitations   Insufficient statistical data from PV fields: Reliability   lack of data for reliability standards.   IEC61215 & 61646 do not address long ? term reliability, ie. design qualification does not imply module’s reliability. 13/38
  • 14. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – 3E Module Technical Assessment Implemented Module Technical Assessment manufacturing & quality practice •  Focus on mid-term risks (documentation) •  Complimentary to IEC evaluation •  Detailed evaluation of manufacturing practice and quality management + •  High expertise required On-site factory evaluation •  To-date: 22% of assessed unknown module brands are not satisfactory. 14/38
  • 15. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Material choice Inverters • new unknown brands  lower risk as mostly EU products future: will be needed (trend in other countries to use non-EU inverters / new design concepts) • power electronics  more expertise from manufacturers • reduced impact on profit: 0 – 25% (max. in case central inverters) • inverter is assembly of interchangeable parts If failure, component can be replaced • main potential errors • use of unsuited and inefficient inverters impact on profit: 0 - 6% • installation errors (IP class, ventilation, etc.)  invalid product guarantee 15/38 • insufficient safety (DC switches, etc.) • incompliance with national grid connection codes
  • 16. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Design Defects/errors Description Profit reduction (probability) AC diagrams not supplied Losses on AC cables are unknown. 0 - 2% (50%) Flash tests not supplied Effective power and mismatch losses are unknown. 0 – 3% (25%) Grid-connection study supplied Compatibility between grid capacity and plant power is unknown. 0 - 20 % (38%) Mounting structure is unknown Compatibility with roof stability and chosen module is unknown. 0 – 20% (19%) Error in sizing inverters Inverters are undersized. Affecting the PR. 0 – 3% (6%) Error in connection modules to PV arrays with different characteristics are connected to the same inverter 0 – 3% (38%) (MPP tracker). Non-optimal system. inverters DC diagrams not supplied Losses on DC cables are unknown. 0 – 2% (13%) Undersized DC cables High losses and overheating issues. 0 – 5% (13%) Stability report is not respected Roof is not strong enough for proposed PV system. 0 – 20% (19%) 16/38
  • 17. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Design Defects/errors Description Profit reduction (probability) Shadow is underestimated Expected losses are underestimated. 0 - 8% (6%) Absence on product warranties Proposed material does not have the minimal warranties. 0 – 5% (12%) Use of inefficient inverters Inverters with low efficient are proposed. 0 – 5% (6%) 17/38
  • 18. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Performance • portfolios under full scope: actual PR = 82.6% • if design verification was not performed and issues resolved  lower PR • difference between 3E’s PR estimation during design verification and actual PR = 1.9%  verification on design level required for obtaining high PRs  3E’s PR estimations are accurate (< theoretical models uncertainties) 18/38
  • 19. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield P50 estimation • benchmark of data sources is required • local effects can always occurs and could affect the results • Belgium  relatively flat profile but differences in uncertainties up to 6% • New PVGIS data base: tentative to improve accuracy • 3E integrates it in the benchmarked results but accuracy is not better than other sources • Climate impact not proven and historical data analysis (KMI – 3E study) does not show any significant trend for the increasing of long term irradiation averages 19/38
  • 20. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield P90 estimation NB: P90 is not 90% of PVGIS’ P50 • PVGIS’ P50 is not taking into account design details and subtleties  Estimated error of +/-10% • P90 is not 90% of a P50 value  Estimated error of +/- 5 to12% (Belgium: +/- 6%) • P90 is a statically calculated value based on long term daily values and including precise combination of all uncertainties • uncertainties on models, algorithms (depending on technology used, etc.) 20/38 • standard deviations
  • 21. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield High yields possible – P50 > 850 kWh/kWp.y But only thanks to higher system performance And not thanks to higher irradiation averages !!! Low standard deviations and relatively low uncertainties in comparison with other RE technologies  lower risk on resources’ availability 21/38
  • 22. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Realisation phase – Installation risks Site progress visits for MWp systems • how fast an issue is identified, how easier the implementation of the solution and how lower the risks are • visits at crucial moments and not only mechanical expertise Sample based site progress visits for smaller systems • site visits expensive for small projects • solution: randomly samples => cost reduction 25% and risk by 50% 22/38
  • 23. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Realisation phase – Installation risks Provisional commissioning • state-of-the-art protocol • visual inspection, measurements, performance verification • >3 weeks between grid-connection and tests (accuracy of performance measurement) • expertise for right diagnostics Final commissioning • reduced scope • still important as some errors only identifiable after several operational months 23/38
  • 24. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Realisation – Commissioning Defects/errors Description Profit reduction (probability) Poor monitoring system Alarms are not taken into account. Maintenance control is low. Performance 0 - 20% (43%) decreases are not identified (not working inverters – 11%) and solved. Modules and mounting structure The mounting structure and the modules are not correctly installed. Roof 0 – 5% (29%) damages are possible. not correctly mounted Difficult roof access The roof access is difficult. Maintenance operations will be done under poor 0 - 20 % (3%) and unsafe conditions. Differences between design and Modifications between the provided design and the reality on site. 0 – 5% (11%) as-built Badly installed inverters Inverters are not installed in accordance with supplier’s recommendations. 0 – 9% (14%) Guarantees are not applicable or inverters are inefficient. Unexpected shadow Obstacles were not mentioned in the design documents and are casting 0 – 8% (3%) shadow on the plant. Damaged components Electrical boxes, cables, inverters, modules, etc. were damaged during 0 – 2% (11%) installation works and were not replaced. Dirt deposition Unexpected dirt deposition due to direct environment. 0 – 2% (6%) 24/38
  • 25. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Conclusions • full scope still needed due to learning curve experience by installers • portfolio risks and contractor’s overestimated guarantees  bankruptcy risk not always insured • very dynamic market  bottlenecks and thus risks change rapidly • new module manufacturer  assessment and expertise required for quality evaluations (dynamic and maintained eligibility lists possible) • multi-disciplinary expertise required senior experts expertise in module manufacturing PhD experts meteorological experts 3E’s PV team experts with RE experts commissioning experts modelling experts 11 nationalities 25/38
  • 26. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Problem: Failure or malfunctioning of specific components in solar park Failure Consequence: important losses on annual yield of the park Solution: Moniotring by exception and 24/7 alarm management – inverter based Problem: unforeseen or unexpected shading on installation Shading Consequence: important losses on yield of the park Solution: Smart alerts to indicate unexpected shading (trend analysis) – performance based Problem: inaccuracy of sensor data / single sensor on site / sensor failure Irradiation Consequence: inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 8% Solution: benchmarking of sensor data with external satellite data Problem: inaccuracy of inverter meter reading Meter Consequence: additional inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 3% Solution: Green current meter reading Problem: installation errors, not reported in inverters (wiring errors) Installation Consequence: unexpected system losses which arise in annual verification errors Solution: 24/7 monitoring with inverter performance checking 26/38
  • 27. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Case Detailed description Impact on annual yield Problem: Wiring error at string level during installation Case specific: 2,3% Wiring Consequence: Performance loss at 1 inverter No intervention:13% Solution: Field intervention and re-wiring Problem: Grass grown too high and shaded modules Case specific: 3,5% Shadow Consequence: Daily performance loss due to schadow No intervention:28% Solution: Field intervention and maintenance Problem: Underperformance of 1 of the 4 inverters Case specific: 1,1 % Component Consequence: Daily performance losses in the morning No intervention:18% Solution: Field intervention / change power electronics Problem: Inverter disconnection due to earthing error Case specific: 0,4 % Earthing Consequence: Daily disconnection of inverters No intervention:3% Solution: Field intervention / change wiring 27/38
  • 28. 3E’s long term track record PV projects – lessons learned Design Realisation Operational Evaluation phase phase phase phase Owner / Investor O&M “I can’t follow up the financial “I must minimize my operational & guaranteed performance of costs while meeting the my entire portfolio” contractual guarantees” Business Portal Operations & Maintenance Portal • Report from park to portfolio level Stakeholders •  5‘ / 10’’ granularity analysis 1 • Mirror to business plan of energy • Technical parameters reporting • Report system and resource perf. • Receive all alerts • Report lost income performance • Alerts management • Follow up contractual guarantees • Interventions management • Receive critical business alerts • Instant portfolio monitoring Others - Energy consumers - Turbine manuf. - Compo. Manuf. - Traders - Dispatchers - DSO/TSO Other Portals • Marketing portal • sub-contractor portals 28/38
  • 29. Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium Next step in project development based on future tariffs • decreasing incentives ⇒ the only solution for converging to grid parity • proposed new scheme • bad communication • no support for innovation / intelligence • increasing hurry for new projects before July ⇒ lowering engineering quality and material choice ⇒ no space for roof membranes renovations • finalisation & commissioning during summer • high dependency evolution module prices • increasing surface leasing prices • bank financing limitations due to 15 years period 29/38
  • 30. Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium Actual characterization Belgian market • large number installers & developers • high population & building density • low industrial/engineering knowledge • high installed peak power capacity / inhabitant • low EPC prices due to high competition, rooftop systems • number smaller installers moving to large scale systems => Intensive competition leads to higher technical risks: • cheapest material choice • surpassed roofs’ capacities • uncontrolled risks in proposed contracts 30/38
  • 31. Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium Possibilities for sustainable market • reinforcement knowledge energy in buildings for better energy integration • development BIPV experience – special incentives for pilot projects? => privileging onsite consumption • research/innovation grid interaction, short term forecast • development new mounting system (aerodynamics, roof integration) • use yield optimizer for better efficiencies on roofs • involving industries in research & concept/product developments => ensuring diversity, expertise and internationalisation perspectives • participation from Belgian companies in foreign start-ups • improving quality residential systems => installers quality labels • reinforce communication & co-development under professional clusters 31/38
  • 32. 3E WORLDWIDE Brussels (BE) - Headquarters Rue du Canal 61 Vaartstraat B-1000 Brussels T +32 2 217 58 68 F +32 2 219 79 89 Toulouse (FR) 9 rue Faubourg Bonnefoy F-31500 Toulouse T +33 5 81 18 07 70 Beijing (CN) Kuntai Building 1220, Chaowai Avenue 10 100020 Beijing M +86 159 2155 2860 Chinese – T +86 (10) 65995709 M +86 159 0148 5126 English Istanbul (TR) M +90 542 723 55 70 Turkish - M +32 472 83 94 24 English