2. INDEPENDENT EXPERT IN RENEWABLE
ENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• Independent consultancy
• Technical Advisor
• PV
Expertise
Projects
• Wind
• Biomass
• Energy efficiency
• Power markets
• > 15 countries
• + 20 years of experience in
renewable energy
• Offices in Belgium, France,
Turkey and China .
Growth
People
• Driven team of engineers, PhD
´s, scientists and experts
• 15 nationalities
• Result driven management
• Linked to major research
programs
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3. 3E AS PREFERRED PARTNER FOR
FULL RISK ASSESSMENT
Experience in renewable
energy for more than
20 years
3E is well positioned World-class expertise
to fully assess and
control risks in
renewable energy
projects Full risk assessment and
integrated organisation
Recognised globally in the
renewable energy industry
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5. COMBINED KNOW-HOW STRENGTHENS DUE
DILIGENCE QUALITY
3E’s experience during lifetime of RE projects
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Financial monitoring
Energy scan Full project guidance Operational monitoring
based on 3E tools
based on 3E tools
Project feasibility Site progress visits Increased reactivity
Intelligent alarms sorting
Design verification Provisional tools
commissioning Exact diagnostics and
Module assessment remedies
Final commissioning
Yield verification Short term predictions
feedback feedback feedback feedback
Due Diligence
5/38
6. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Contracting phase Design and yield estimations
EPC contract Material choice
O&M contract Design
Surface lease contract Performance
PPA contracts Resources & yield
6/38
7. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
EPC contracts / Framework agreements
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
Incomplete contractor’s obligations Contractor’s obligation are not exhaustive regarding the installation works. 0 - 10%
Works and responsibilities as AC (Middle-Voltage) works, effective grid-
connection, etc. are not included.
Mainly for international projects where the frame is flue.
Errors in yield/performance Yield guarantees are set up based on faulty references. Under-/overestimation
of the expected yearly yield (incoherent P50).
guarantees
Too optimistic guarantees can lead to unexpected recurrent penalties for the
Faulty measurements equipment contractor (until bankruptcy?) or low guarantees can lead to un-maintained
plants.
Contract’s formulae are based on un-accurate measurement equipment or 2 -12 %
references (real plant’s performance is unknown). Strong overestimations are
common (based on inverters production data and sensor cells).
Definition of completion and Contracts should include performance verifications. The guarantee, risk and 0 - 11 %
ownership should not be allowed if the real performance is not known.
acceptance Mechanical/electrical completion is not enough for assessing the quality of
energy plants.
Acceptable test period between completion and acceptance should be taken
into account.
Plant could be accepted with an average performance far below the P50
scenario.
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8. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
EPC contracts / Frameworks
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
Proposed material Components should be described or list of potential components should be 0 - 60 %
available for review.
Components’ quality and performance can highly fluctuate (also in case of
same technology).
Designs are depending of chosen components. When new components are
chosen, the errors’ probability is rising and uncertainty on P50 is substantially
increasing.
Spare parts / Provisions Proposed number of spare parts or proposed provision are clearly defined or 0-5%
not covering the failure risks.
Spare parts could be part of O&M. Spare parts are depending on the design
concept (central or string inverters).
Operational control Use of inadapted monitoring systems. Errors/failures could not be detected. 0 - 5%
Unknown new brands and suppliers !!!
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9. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
O&M contracts
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
Incomplete contractor’s obligations Limited contractor’s obligations or liabilities. Can lead to unexpected additional 0 - 10%
costs.
i.e.: replacement defected parts, cleaning modules, direct environment
maintenance (shadow problems), etc.
Errors in yield/performance Idem EPC 2 - 12 %
guarantees
Faulty measurement equipment
Poorly adjusted O&M concepts O&M strategy is in depending on project location (roof, ground), direct 0 – 8%
environment (industrial activities), design (centralised or decentralised
inverters).
Yearly degradation Too pessimistic power degradation. Can lead to irrelevant yield guarantees and 0 - 0.6%
un-maintained plants. Depends on technology used.
Incomplete preventive procedures Can lead to unexpected losses or unsafe situations. 0 - 5%
i.e.: tests of electrical switches, grounding issues, no detection of yield losses
due to soiling, high cables losses, inefficient inverters, etc.
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10. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Surface lease contracts
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
Incomplete contractor’s or owner Limited contractor’s or owner’s (tenant’s) obligations or liabilities. 0 - 10%
obligations i.e.: roof and environment maintenance, stability issues, site consumptions,
roof access, electrical maintenance, etc.
PPA contracts
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
Short term contracts Long term cash flow conditions are not ensured. 0 – 0.5%
Non market conform prices Underestimation of the purchase prices. 0 – 0.5%
No indexation Absence of price indexations. 0 - 0.4%
10/38
11. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Contracting phase Design and yield estimations
EPC contract Material choice
O&M contract Design
Surface lease contract Performance
PPA contracts Resources & yield
11/38
12. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Material choice
Modules
• Questions:
1. What constitutes a “good quality” module? basic quality.
2. How “reliable” will the module be in the field? reliability.
• New/unknown brands
New technology High risk; impact on profit: 0 – 60%
Toll manufacturing
12/38
13. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Module Quality & Reliability
Module certifications
Based on IEC, EN, UL or other standards.
Basic
IEC61215 (cSi), IEC61646 (thin film) design qualification.
Quality
• Module performance capability in accelerated environmental test.
IEC61730, UL1730 safety qualification.
Limitations
Insufficient statistical data from PV fields:
Reliability lack of data for reliability standards.
IEC61215 & 61646 do not address long
?
term reliability, ie. design qualification does
not imply module’s reliability.
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14. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – 3E Module Technical Assessment
Implemented
Module Technical Assessment manufacturing &
quality practice
• Focus on mid-term risks (documentation)
• Complimentary to IEC evaluation
• Detailed evaluation of manufacturing
practice and quality management +
• High expertise required On-site factory
evaluation
• To-date: 22% of assessed unknown module brands are not satisfactory.
14/38
15. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Material choice
Inverters
• new unknown brands lower risk as mostly EU products
future: will be needed (trend in other countries to use non-EU inverters / new
design concepts)
• power electronics more expertise from manufacturers
• reduced impact on profit: 0 – 25% (max. in case central inverters)
• inverter is assembly of interchangeable parts
If failure, component can be replaced
• main potential errors
• use of unsuited and inefficient inverters
impact on profit: 0 - 6%
• installation errors (IP class, ventilation, etc.) invalid product guarantee
15/38 • insufficient safety (DC switches, etc.)
• incompliance with national grid connection codes
16. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Design
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
(probability)
AC diagrams not supplied Losses on AC cables are unknown. 0 - 2% (50%)
Flash tests not supplied Effective power and mismatch losses are unknown. 0 – 3% (25%)
Grid-connection study supplied Compatibility between grid capacity and plant power is unknown. 0 - 20 % (38%)
Mounting structure is unknown Compatibility with roof stability and chosen module is unknown. 0 – 20% (19%)
Error in sizing inverters Inverters are undersized. Affecting the PR. 0 – 3% (6%)
Error in connection modules to PV arrays with different characteristics are connected to the same inverter 0 – 3% (38%)
(MPP tracker). Non-optimal system.
inverters
DC diagrams not supplied Losses on DC cables are unknown. 0 – 2% (13%)
Undersized DC cables High losses and overheating issues. 0 – 5% (13%)
Stability report is not respected Roof is not strong enough for proposed PV system. 0 – 20% (19%)
16/38
17. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Design
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
(probability)
Shadow is underestimated Expected losses are underestimated. 0 - 8% (6%)
Absence on product warranties Proposed material does not have the minimal warranties. 0 – 5% (12%)
Use of inefficient inverters Inverters with low efficient are proposed. 0 – 5% (6%)
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18. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Performance
• portfolios under full scope: actual PR = 82.6%
• if design verification was not performed and issues resolved
lower PR
• difference between 3E’s PR estimation during design verification
and actual PR = 1.9%
verification on design level required for obtaining high PRs
3E’s PR estimations are accurate
(< theoretical models uncertainties)
18/38
19. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield
P50 estimation
• benchmark of data sources is required
• local effects can always occurs and could affect the results
• Belgium relatively flat profile but differences in uncertainties up to 6%
• New PVGIS data base: tentative to improve accuracy
• 3E integrates it in the benchmarked results but accuracy is not
better than other sources
• Climate impact not proven and historical data analysis (KMI – 3E study)
does not show any significant trend for the increasing of long term irradiation
averages
19/38
20. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield
P90 estimation
NB: P90 is not 90% of PVGIS’ P50
• PVGIS’ P50 is not taking into account design details and subtleties
Estimated error of +/-10%
• P90 is not 90% of a P50 value
Estimated error of +/- 5 to12% (Belgium: +/- 6%)
• P90 is a statically calculated value based on long term daily values
and including precise combination of all uncertainties
• uncertainties on models, algorithms (depending on
technology used, etc.)
20/38 • standard deviations
21. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Design and yield estimations – Resource and yield
High yields possible – P50 > 850 kWh/kWp.y
But only thanks to higher system performance
And not thanks to higher irradiation averages !!!
Low standard deviations and relatively low uncertainties in comparison
with other RE technologies lower risk on resources’ availability
21/38
22. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Realisation phase – Installation risks
Site progress visits for MWp systems
• how fast an issue is identified, how easier the implementation of the
solution and how lower the risks are
• visits at crucial moments and not only mechanical expertise
Sample based site progress visits for smaller systems
• site visits expensive for small projects
• solution: randomly samples => cost reduction 25% and risk by 50%
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23. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Realisation phase – Installation risks
Provisional commissioning
• state-of-the-art protocol
• visual inspection, measurements, performance verification
• >3 weeks between grid-connection and tests
(accuracy of performance measurement)
• expertise for right diagnostics
Final commissioning
• reduced scope
• still important as some errors only identifiable after several
operational months
23/38
24. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Realisation – Commissioning
Defects/errors Description Profit reduction
(probability)
Poor monitoring system Alarms are not taken into account. Maintenance control is low. Performance 0 - 20% (43%)
decreases are not identified (not working inverters – 11%) and solved.
Modules and mounting structure The mounting structure and the modules are not correctly installed. Roof 0 – 5% (29%)
damages are possible.
not correctly mounted
Difficult roof access The roof access is difficult. Maintenance operations will be done under poor 0 - 20 % (3%)
and unsafe conditions.
Differences between design and Modifications between the provided design and the reality on site. 0 – 5% (11%)
as-built
Badly installed inverters Inverters are not installed in accordance with supplier’s recommendations. 0 – 9% (14%)
Guarantees are not applicable or inverters are inefficient.
Unexpected shadow Obstacles were not mentioned in the design documents and are casting 0 – 8% (3%)
shadow on the plant.
Damaged components Electrical boxes, cables, inverters, modules, etc. were damaged during 0 – 2% (11%)
installation works and were not replaced.
Dirt deposition Unexpected dirt deposition due to direct environment. 0 – 2% (6%)
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25. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Conclusions
• full scope still needed due to learning curve experience by installers
• portfolio risks and contractor’s overestimated guarantees
bankruptcy risk not always insured
• very dynamic market bottlenecks and thus risks change rapidly
• new module manufacturer assessment and expertise required for
quality evaluations (dynamic and maintained eligibility lists possible)
• multi-disciplinary expertise required
senior experts
expertise in module manufacturing
PhD experts
meteorological experts
3E’s PV team experts with RE experts
commissioning experts
modelling experts
11 nationalities
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26. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Problem: Failure or malfunctioning of specific components in solar park
Failure Consequence: important losses on annual yield of the park
Solution: Moniotring by exception and 24/7 alarm management – inverter based
Problem: unforeseen or unexpected shading on installation
Shading Consequence: important losses on yield of the park
Solution: Smart alerts to indicate unexpected shading (trend analysis) – performance based
Problem: inaccuracy of sensor data / single sensor on site / sensor failure
Irradiation Consequence: inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 8%
Solution: benchmarking of sensor data with external satellite data
Problem: inaccuracy of inverter meter reading
Meter Consequence: additional inaccuracy on system performance (PR) estimated at +- 3%
Solution: Green current meter reading
Problem: installation errors, not reported in inverters (wiring errors)
Installation Consequence: unexpected system losses which arise in annual verification
errors
Solution: 24/7 monitoring with inverter performance checking
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27. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Case Detailed description Impact on annual yield
Problem: Wiring error at string level during installation
Case specific: 2,3%
Wiring Consequence: Performance loss at 1 inverter
No intervention:13%
Solution: Field intervention and re-wiring
Problem: Grass grown too high and shaded modules
Case specific: 3,5%
Shadow Consequence: Daily performance loss due to schadow
No intervention:28%
Solution: Field intervention and maintenance
Problem: Underperformance of 1 of the 4 inverters
Case specific: 1,1 %
Component Consequence: Daily performance losses in the morning
No intervention:18%
Solution: Field intervention / change power electronics
Problem: Inverter disconnection due to earthing error
Case specific: 0,4 %
Earthing Consequence: Daily disconnection of inverters
No intervention:3%
Solution: Field intervention / change wiring
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28. 3E’s long term track record PV projects –
lessons learned
Design Realisation Operational Evaluation
phase phase phase phase
Owner / Investor O&M
“I can’t follow up the financial “I must minimize my operational
& guaranteed performance of costs while meeting the
my entire portfolio” contractual guarantees”
Business Portal Operations & Maintenance
Portal
• Report from park to portfolio level Stakeholders • 5‘ / 10’’ granularity analysis
1
• Mirror to business plan of energy • Technical parameters reporting
• Report system and resource perf. • Receive all alerts
• Report lost income performance • Alerts management
• Follow up contractual guarantees • Interventions management
• Receive critical business alerts • Instant portfolio monitoring
Others
- Energy consumers
- Turbine manuf.
- Compo. Manuf.
- Traders
- Dispatchers
- DSO/TSO Other Portals
• Marketing portal
• sub-contractor portals
28/38
29. Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium
Next step in project development based on future tariffs
• decreasing incentives
⇒ the only solution for converging to grid parity
• proposed new scheme
• bad communication
• no support for innovation / intelligence
• increasing hurry for new projects before July
⇒ lowering engineering quality and material choice
⇒ no space for roof membranes renovations
• finalisation & commissioning during summer
• high dependency evolution module prices
• increasing surface leasing prices
• bank financing limitations due to 15 years period
29/38
30. Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium
Actual characterization Belgian market
• large number installers & developers
• high population & building density
• low industrial/engineering knowledge
• high installed peak power capacity / inhabitant
• low EPC prices due to high competition, rooftop systems
• number smaller installers moving to large scale systems
=> Intensive competition leads to higher technical risks:
• cheapest material choice
• surpassed roofs’ capacities
• uncontrolled risks in proposed contracts
30/38
31. Evolution PV perspectives in Belgium
Possibilities for sustainable market
• reinforcement knowledge energy in buildings for better energy integration
• development BIPV experience – special incentives for pilot projects?
=> privileging onsite consumption
• research/innovation grid interaction, short term forecast
• development new mounting system (aerodynamics, roof integration)
• use yield optimizer for better efficiencies on roofs
• involving industries in research & concept/product developments
=> ensuring diversity, expertise and internationalisation perspectives
• participation from Belgian companies in foreign start-ups
• improving quality residential systems => installers quality labels
• reinforce communication & co-development under professional clusters
31/38
32. 3E WORLDWIDE
Brussels (BE) - Headquarters
Rue du Canal 61 Vaartstraat
B-1000 Brussels
T +32 2 217 58 68 F +32 2 219 79 89
Toulouse (FR)
9 rue Faubourg Bonnefoy
F-31500 Toulouse
T +33 5 81 18 07 70
Beijing (CN)
Kuntai Building 1220, Chaowai Avenue 10
100020 Beijing
M +86 159 2155 2860 Chinese – T +86 (10) 65995709
M +86 159 0148 5126 English
Istanbul (TR)
M +90 542 723 55 70 Turkish - M +32 472 83 94 24 English