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05 winfried hoffmann - epia

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  • 1. Main Secondary Color Color Palette Winfried Hoffmann Palette EPIA Vice PresidentCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 EPIA  Market  Expecta/on  for  the  Long  Term   227/50/38CMYK5/80/100/0RGB –  again  too  Pessimis/c?   CMYK 0/70/0/10 RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris,  6th  Market  Outlook,  18  March  2010  
  • 2. Main Color Content Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0RGB •  Expectations for PV growth in EU and worldwide 5/95/100/0 RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK5/80/100/0 •  Trends in PV system price development CMYK 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 •  PV outpacing traditional electricity production in the medium (peak power, CCS) and long run (base load) CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 •  Results are based on CMYK 100/5/5/10 # EPIA „PV market outlook“ 2011 (-2015) RGB 0/152/203 # EPIA/AT Kearney/Consentec study: „PV competing in the energy sector“ CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB # EPIA/Greenpeace „Solar Generation VI“ 165/175/41 # own estimates CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 2
  • 3. Main 16.7 GW Secondary Color Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 3
  • 4. Main Color Our position in 2010… installed capacity EU27 Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK •  Uncertainties on gas and coal, PV ahead of all RES CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB253/196/0 Power generation capacities added in 2010 in EU27 RGB 227/50/38 20,000CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 15,602 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 15,000 218/104/157 13,323 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 10,000 9,295 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 decommissioned CMYK 5,000 4,056 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 573 405 208 200 149 145 25 25 0 0 0 CMYK -107 -45 -26 -245 30/8/100/15 -535 RGB -1550 165/175/41 -5,000 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 4
  • 5. Main Color The market in 2010 Secondary Color Palette Palette +132% 16.7CMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 CMYKCMYK5/80/100/0 +17% 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 +145% 7.20 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100RGB 0/0/0 6.17 RGB 148/83/161 +59% CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 2.51 CMYK 1.44 1.58 30/8/100/15 1.12 RGB 0.33 0.47 0.58 165/175/41 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 5
  • 6. Main Color World split in 2010 Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 ROW 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 6
  • 7. Main Color The top 10 in 2009 and 2010 (MW) worlwide Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 2009 2010 227/50/38CMYK 1 Germany 3.806 Germany 7.700 CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB 2 Italy 723 Italy 2.300 RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 3 Japan 483 Czech Rep 1.360 CMYKCMYK0/0/0/100 4 USA 477 Japan 990 50/80/0/0 RGBRGB 0/0/0 5 Czech Rep 398 USA 900 148/83/161 6 Belgium 285 France 719 CMYK 100/5/5/10 7 China 160-228 Spain 367 RGB 0/152/203 8 France 185 Belgium 361 CMYK 9 South Korea 167 Australia 320 30/8/100/15 RGB 10 Australia 79 China 300-520 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 7
  • 8. Main Color Cumulated installed capacity until 2010 Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 39.6 GW 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 8
  • 9. Main Color Cumulative installed capacity 2010 Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 GW countries: CMYK 100/5/5/10 Germany RGB 0/152/203 Italy Spain CMYK Japan 30/8/100/15 RGB USA 165/175/41 Czech Republic CMYK France 0/0/0/60 China in 2011 ? RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 9
  • 10. Main Color An outlook to 2011 Secondary Color Palette Palette 25000CMYK 21.3 GW CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 20000 3500CMYK CMYK 12505/80/100/0 14 GW 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 15000 NORTH AM 2250 Japan CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 1050 EU RGBRGB 0/0/0 10000 13815 China 148/83/161 APEC CMYK 8655 ROW 100/5/5/10 RGB 5000 0/152/203 1000 CMYK 750 667 30/8/100/15 414 849 1062 RGB 0 165/175/41 EPIA Moderate EPIA Policy Driven CMYK 2011 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 10
  • 11. Main Secondary Color Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 An outlook into 2015 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 11
  • 12. Main Color EU forecasts until 2015 Secondary Color Palette Palette 25000CMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 20000 19450CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 Historical Data 0/70/0/10 17560RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 EPIA Policy Driven 15980 15000 EPIA ModerateCMYK 13523 13815 CMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 12850 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 10000 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 5625 5130 5000 CMYK 8655 8920 7420 7525 7935 30/8/100/15 RGB 1950 165/175/41 707 1005 983 52 94 139 199 0 CMYK 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 12
  • 13. Main Color Global Forecasts until 2015 Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK Neither the worst nor the best are sure… CMYK0/25/100/0 50000 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 45000 43000 Historical DataCMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 40000 0/70/0/10 EPIA Policy DrivenRGB RGB224/81/21 35500 218/104/157 35000 EPIA Moderate 31900 CMYKCMYK 30000 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 24200 148/83/161 25000 21300 CMYK 20000 100/5/5/10 16928 RGB 0/152/203 15000 23200 CMYK 10000 1840020000 7263 30/8/100/15 6168 15700 14000 RGB 165/175/41 5000 2513 1439 1581 280 331 471 581 1119 0 CMYK 0/0/0/60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 13
  • 14. Main Color Share of EU vs World Secondary Color Palette Palette 50000CMYK Coming from 81% in 2010 … CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0 45000RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 40000CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10 35000RGB224/81/21 From 62 to 40% From 65 to 45% RGB 218/104/157 30000CMYK ROW CMYK0/0/0/100 25000 50/80/0/0 NORTH AM RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 Japan 20000 EU CMYK 15000 China 100/5/5/10 APEC RGB 0/152/203 10000 CMYK 5000 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CMYK 0/0/0/60 EPIA Moderate EPIA Policy Driven RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 14
  • 15. Main Color If this goes too far… Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK •  2 futures… Moderate and Policy-driven CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK •  In 2011, in the Moderate scenario CMYK5/80/100/0RGB •  Oversupply could bring the prices down 0/70/0/10 RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 •  Market restart in second part of the yearCMYK •  OR if the market is really low, and prices are going quite low CMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100RGB 0/0/0 •  Grid parity could be reached very fast, RGB 148/83/161 •  With risk of overheat thereafter … CMYK •  In the Policy-driven scenario 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 •  Slight oversupply compensated during the 2nd part of the year •  Reasonable path to grid parity CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 15
  • 16. Main Color Consultants thoughts… (market development) Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK •  … there is general consensus among most CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB 70 RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK 60 EPIA Policy-driven 2010 CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10 EPIA Moderate 2011RGB RGB224/81/21 EPIA Policy-Driven 2011 218/104/157 50 NREAP Sarasin 2010/12 CMYKCMYK Photon 2010 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 40 Yole realistic 2010/09 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 Yole optimistic 2010/09 McK High 2010/06 30 CMYK iSupply 2010/10 100/5/5/10 Lux research 2010/03 RGB 0/152/203 TrendForce 2010/12 20 iSupply new Navigant CMYK 30/8/100/15 EUPD 10 RGB IMS Research 165/175/41 0 CMYK 0/0/0/60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 16
  • 17. Main Color And the SET for 2020 targets Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK 200000 CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB Historical Data RGB253/196/0 180000 227/50/38 EPIA Policy driven 160000 EPIA ModerateCMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 Set For 2020 Baseline 0/70/0/10 140000RGB Set For 2020 Advanced RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 Set For 2020 Paradigm Shift 120000 NREAP 2020CMYK 100000 CMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 80000 148/83/161 60000 CMYK 100/5/5/10 40000 RGB 0/152/203 20000 0 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 17
  • 18. Main Secondary Color Palette Significant Gap to “Set for 2020” Goals Color Palette Binding Commitments as of September, 2010CMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10 Cumulated Volume [GW]RGB RGB224/81/21 389 Paradigm Shift: 12% 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK0/0/0/100 198 Accelerated: 6% 50/80/0/0 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 132 Base Case: 4% CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 83 Binding Volumes: 2,5% CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB Total EU 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 18
  • 19. Main Color Super and Smart Grids Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK0/25/100/0 Pumped storage power station CMYK 5/95/100/0RGB253/196/0 Off-shore (eg Scandinavia) Smart RGB 227/50/38 wind parks GridstCMYK CMYK5/80/100/0RGB PV, DSM 0/70/0/10 RGB224/81/21 smart meter 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK0/0/0/100 Supergrids: Pumped storage 50/80/0/0 RGBRGB 0/0/0 HVAC power station 148/83/161 HVDC (eg Austria) CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 Medium voltage CMYK distribution grid 30/8/100/15 RGB Pumped storage power station 165/175/41 (eg Switzerland) CMYK Source: W. Hoffmann, own considerations, March 2011 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 19
  • 20. The underlying installed system prices reflect national and segment variations by countryProjection of European installed PV system reference price range1)(2010 to 2020; weighted technology mix per segment) Installedsystem prices [€nominal/Wp] Δ: - €/W 0.96 to - €/W 1.33 3.41 3.18 3.00 2.84 2.70 2.56 2.44 2.34 2.26 2.24 2.07 2.16 2.08 1.93 1.81 1.70 1.60 1.52 1.46 1.40 1.34 1.30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20201) Range across segments and PV technologies (c-Si and thin-film); includes harmonized, competitive standard margins for modules, BOS and installations; incl. administrative cost; VAT excludedSource: EPIA/ A.T. Kearney LCOE model; various input sources 20
  • 21. The levelized cost of PV generation in Europe is expected to decline by around 50% until 2020European PV LCOE range projection 2010 – 2020 Band of LCOE reflects: LCOE •  Four different system[€nominal/kWh] size segments0.40 0.36 •  Crystalline Silicon and0.35 Thin Film technologies 0.32 •  Differences in national0.30 0.29 0.27 installed system and 0.25 operations cost0.25 0.24 0.22 •  Differences in national 0.21 0.20 0.190.20 0.19 irradiation •  Different WACC for0.15 different countries 0.16 0.14 considered0.10 0.13 0.12 •  VAT for residential 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.080.05 segment0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Thanks to Phoenix Solar for granting permission to A.T. Kearney to use existing cost model !Source: EPIA/ A.T. Kearney / Phoenix Solar LCOE model; various input sources 21
  • 22. Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity PriceRef: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 1999 2 2 22
  • 23. Cumulative Capacity in Paradigm Shift Scenario 23 GW - 2009 36 to 40GW - 2010 750 GW - 2020 1.900 GW - 2030Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 23
  • 24. The Mission•  Quantification of PV solar electricity until 2050•  Showing the importance of PV for employment•  Provide comprehensive information about PV•  Target groups: Decision makers in policy and economy; “Multiplicators” as education and JournalistsThe “History”•  Solar Generation I: 2001•  Solar Generation II: 2004•  Solar Generation III: 2006•  Solar Generation IV: 2007•  Solar Generation V: 2008•  60.000 copies in over 40 countries distributed•  Translated in 12 languages: German, Dutch, Spanish, Italian, French, Greek, Portuguese, Japanese, Thai, Chinese, Russian, Arab, HebrewLaunch Solar Generation, February 2011 24
  • 25. FOR THE FUTUREThe first edition of Solar Generation was published in 2001, since then, each year, theactual global PV market has grown faster that EPIA and Greenpeace had predicted: * *2010 Market size as per modeling developed in summer 2010, actual market could reach around 16 GW in 2010 Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 25
  • 26. Main Development of PV: Market development and Secondary Color Color Palette EPIA and Greenpeace forecasts from 2001 to 2010 PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 The PV Market Results were always much stronger CMYK than all previous forecasts 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 26 Source: EPIA and Greenpeace, Solar Generation 6.
  • 27. Key Results for 2030 WORLD •  1,850 GW INSTALLED (137 GW annually) •  ≈ 10 % of electricity consumption covered by PV •  3 billion people could be supplied with PV electricity •  3.5 million jobs •  27 to 100 billion € market volume •  1.3 billion tonnes of CO2 savings annuallyLaunch Solar Generation, February 2011 27
  • 28. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS •  Extending the national grid. But Rural electrification high cost 3 approaches: •  Providing off-grid technologies. PV systems are already cost competitive •  Developing mini-grids with hybrid power. Combination of generation technologies separate from the grid PV plays a strategic role in rural electrificationLaunch Solar Generation, February 2011 28
  • 29. The Context: There is a global need for CO2-Reduction •  Great window of opportunity: OECD Countries: Re-Powering Developing Countries: Increasing demand •  Solar Generation: Part of the global energy scenario «Energy [R]evolution » •  Solar Generation defines the role that solar electricity will play in the lives of a population born today, who will become energy consumers •  Solar Photovoltaic: Key Technology to fight Climate ChangeLaunch Solar Generation, February 2011 29
  • 30. Energy [R]evolution A sustainable World Energy OutlookRenewable Energy Share – Power Sector Global:2020: 38% / 2030: 60% / 2050: 95% Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 30
  • 31. Main Color RES-thinking 2050 Secondary Color Palette Palette Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050CMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 PV Growth Rate PV Volume GrowthCMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 Yearly Installed PV Power [GW] CAGR 2000-2009: 45% Cumulated PV Power [GW] CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010 Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010 RGB 98/100/100 Millenium New Materials Key Note, 2010/09/23, Winfried Hoffmann 31
  • 32. Main Color RES-thinking 2050 – World Secondary Color Palette PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB253/196/0 PV Growth Assumption for 2050 RGB 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21   EU-27 218/104/157   100% target for RES of final energy   All RES sources to contribute CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100   43% electricity share assumed RGBRGB 0/0/0 (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario) 148/83/161   World (OECD) CMYK 100/5/5/10   80% target for RES of final energy RGB 0/152/203   43% electricity share assumed, too   PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand CMYK 30/8/100/15   Total PV energy supply in 2050: RGB 11k TWh/a 165/175/41 CMYK Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 32
  • 33. Main Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a Secondary Color Color Palette 100% Global End Energy Coverage PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010 RGB 98/100/100 33
  • 34. Main Secondary Color Color Palette PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 www.epia.org CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 CMYK 0/0/0/60 Gaëtan Masson, RGB 98/100/100 g.masson@epia.org
  • 35. Launch Solar Generation, February 2011 35
  • 36. Main Color Unlocking new markets, stabilizing others Secondary Color Palette PaletteCMYK •  In Europe – medium size markets to unlock/develop CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB •  UK, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Turkey RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 •  In MENA countries - no GW market in the pipeCMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 •  Feasability in the short term ? 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 •  Morocco, Israel, UAE, Jordan ? 218/104/157CMYK0/0/0/100 •  New or consolidating markets in Asia Pacific CMYK 50/80/0/0RGB 0/0/0 •  Japan ?, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia RGB 148/83/161 •  China of course CMYK •  India ? 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 •  Americas •  US finally developing. But what’s next ? Canada CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB •  Central and south America: Mexico, Brazil ? 165/175/41 •  We need to consolidate existing markets first CMYK 0/0/0/60 •  Keep faith: Grid parity is within reach (2013-2020) RGB 98/100/100 Paris, 6th Market Workshop, 18 March 2011 36
  • 37. Main Secondary Color Color Palette Development of the Various Market Segments! PaletteCMYK CMYK0/25/100/0 5/95/100/0RGB RGB253/196/0 227/50/38CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 218/104/157 CMYKCMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100 RGBRGB 0/0/0 148/83/161 CMYK 100/5/5/10 RGB 0/152/203 CMYK 30/8/100/15 RGB 165/175/41 Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 37
  • 38. Main The market in 2010 Secondary Color Color Palette PaletteCMYK •  What did we expect one year ago ? And the CMYK0/25/100/0RGB consultants? Where is the production ? 5/95/100/0 RGB253/196/0 227/50/38 20CMYK CMYK5/80/100/0 18 0/70/0/10RGB RGB224/81/21 16 218/104/157 14CMYK 12 CMYK 50/80/0/00/0/0/100RGB 0/0/0 GW 10 RGB 148/83/161 8 6 CMYK 100/5/5/10 4 RGB 0/152/203 2 0 CMYK Average Average EPIA Moderate EPIA Policy- Actual 2010 Shipments 30/8/100/15 consultants consultants 2010 Driven 2010 (EPIA) (Navigant RGB 165/175/41 July Oct Consulting) Germany, Italy but also policy-driven achieved in many countries… CMYK 0/0/0/60 RGB 98/100/100 38

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