01 edwin koot - solarplaza

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01 edwin koot - solarplaza

  1. 1. 9-11-2010 1
  2. 2. 9-11-2010 2
  3. 3. The experts9-11-2010 3
  4. 4. Observations…24-01-2011 4
  5. 5. The Global PV market WORLD PV MARKET[MWp/year] NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER18,00016,000 CAGR: 52%14,00012,00010,000 Crisis, what crisis? 8,000 6,000 2009: +15% growth 2010: +100% 4,000 2011: +15%...? 2,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  6. 6. Market hard to predict… WORLD PV MARKET WORLD PV MARKET[MWp/year] [MWp/year] 2011 FORECAST NEWLY INSTALLED PV 2009 FORECAST NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER POWER12,000 18,000 16,00010,000 14,000 8,000 12,000 10,000 6,000 8,000 4,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 - - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  7. 7. 0   2000   4000   6000   8000  Germany   Italy   Czech  Republik   USA   52% global Japan   21 MW/day… market share; France   China   Belgium   South   Korea  Australia   2010: Germany…and the rest
  8. 8. What will happen in 2011?
  9. 9. Module prices in decline… Solarfun (NASDAQ) $4.50     $4.00     $3.50     $3.00     -/- 59%[$/Wp]   $2.50     $2.00     $1.50     $1.00     $0.50     $0.00     Q2-­‐08   Q3-­‐08   Q4-­‐08   Q1-­‐09   Q2-­‐09   Q3-­‐09   Q4-­‐09   Q1-­‐10   Q2-­‐10   Q3-­‐10   Q4-­‐10   Q1-­‐11   9
  10. 10. Germany: the engine of the solar industry… 16000 [MWp/year] 14000 12000 ? 10000 Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty 8000 Images, Inc. 6000 4000 2000 0 10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 © Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model
  11. 11. Saturation of German market?• 2010: PV electricity = 2.1%• CAGR = 68% (2002-2010)• Continuation feasible? 2015: –  105 GW/yr –  250 GW cumulative –  31,5% of electricity consumption•  FiT reductions = ‘run on last subsidies’?•  Germany: ‘trainer PV industry…’
  12. 12. Decreasing German FiT reaching grid-parity per July: 15% reduction
  13. 13. The Future…
  14. 14. Wind versus PV: 9 years’ difference 25.0 [GWp/yr] Anticipated growth 20.0 of PV market 15.0 10.0 Wind energy data for 9 years ago; 2008 data generated in 1999 5.0 PV market volume [GWp] Wind energy market [GWp] 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  15. 15. Wind versus solar energy60   Wind  Energy  market  [GWp]   30% CAGR50   PV  market  volume  [GWp]  40  30  20  10   0   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007   2009  
  16. 16. PV market growth scenarios160 [GWp/yr]140 Optimistic growth scenario of 30%120 Growth scenario CAGR Wind –100 of 25% > 2014 energy: 30%/year € 500 billion806040 25%/year20 € 190 billion 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 © SolarPlaza June 2008; Data source: analyses by SolarPlaza based on various sources
  17. 17. 5 years ago & 5 years from now… 2006: 2011: 2016:Global market [GWp]: 1.8 >17 >40First Solar [MWp]: 100 >2250 >8000*c-Si Module [$/Wp]: ≈4.50 1.80 <1.15* Solarplaza 2016 estimate: 30% growth 2013-2016
  18. 18. Growth electricity consumption World Net Electricity Power Generation[Trillion kWh/year] EIA forecast [GW] Fully covered  3,000     by new PV 30 power +16%  2,500     25  2,000     20 15  1,500     10  1,000     Expected new 5  500     PV power 0  -­‐         2015   2010 2015
  19. 19. 2016: Grid parity… What will happen?• 3 kWp PV ≈ 5,5 k€ – € 0,24/kWh (Belgium) – € 0,16 (Spain)• Electricity = commodity• ‘run on PV’?• All manufacturers sold out? PV = Sold Out!
  20. 20. Market survey… •  James Surowiecki: “The Wisdom of Crowds” •  “Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few”9-11-2010 20
  21. 21. De Belgische PV markt: Nieuw geïnstalleerde MW’en in 2011: •  <150 MW •  <300 MW •  <450 MW9-11-2010 21
  22. 22. Grid-parity kan in België bereikt worden… (in woningmarkt, zonder subsidies) 1.  >10 jaar 2.  >5 jaar 3.  >2 jaar9-11-2010 22
  23. 23. Om de Belgische markt te ontwikkelen, zijn groene certificaten nog nodig gedurende… •  >8 jaar •  >5 jaar •  >2 jaar9-11-2010 23
  24. 24. Hoeveel bent u zelf bereid meer tebetalen voor pure zonnestroom van uw eigen dak?•  Nee, niets•  €0.01-0.03 per kWh•  >€0.03 per kWh (ca. €90/jaar)
  25. 25. 24-01-2011 25
  26. 26. 9-11-2010 2 6
  27. 27. 24-01-2011 27
  28. 28. Markt onderzoekHoe lang bent u al actief op het gebied van zonne-energie (PV)?•  Meer dan 5 jaar•  Enkele jaren•  Net gestart
  29. 29. De produktiekosten van zonnestroom zijn in België in 2013… 1.  >€ 0.25/kWh 2.  >€ 0.20/kWh 3.  >€ 0.20/kWh9-11-2010 29
  30. 30. De verkoopprijs van een c-Si module in 2012 is… 1.  >€ 1.50/Wp 2.  >€ 1.30/Wp 3.  >€ 1.10/Wp9-11-2010 30

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