digital marketing , introduction of digital marketing
Creighton team acg cup 2015 final round v final 2
1. Daniela Morales, Sergio Gutierrez, Edgar Lopez, Zhangde Lin
Impact
Capital Partners
2015 ACG Cup Competition
2. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Index
Objective
Recommendation
Qualitative Analysis
− Company Analysis
− Industry Analysis
Quantitative Analysis
− Purchase Price Analysis
− IRR Analysis
Summary Conclusion
Alternative options
Appendix
2 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Intro →
3. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Objective
Conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis to advise Impact Capital
Partners on:
− Interest in buying ParentCo
− Purchase price of ParentCo
− Capital structure and alternative options
− Exit opportunities
3 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Recommendation ValuationsIntro → AppendixSummary AlternativesIntro →
4. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Impact Capital Partners should:
− Make an offer to purchase ParentCo
− Make an offer to purchase FashionCo based on 2016 performance
− Pursue a 2020 exit strategy to maximize IRR
− Break up the ParentCo by industry
Recommendation
4 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Recommendation
6. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
SWOT Analysis
6 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Strengths
ParentCo
Long , established company
On track to meet (or beat) projected earnings
Strong management team
FashionCo
High growth projections for 2016
Weaknesses
ParentCo
Decline in stock price of 9.72% in the last year
FashionCo
Performance uncertainty
Opportunities
ParentCo
Undervalued
Increase value through acquisition
Profit after exit
FashionCo
Synergies through acquisition
Profit after exit
Threats
ParentCo
Low industry future expected growth
FashionCo
Not meeting projected performance
Skepticism from ParentCo’s CFO
InternalExternal
Positive Negative
Company
8. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Porter’s Five Forces: Media Industry
8 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
• High customer loyalty
• Low price sensitivity
• Medium switching costs
• Recurring purchases
Buyer Power
MED
• Scattered suppliers
• Low cost of inputs
• Low switching costs
Supplier Power
LOW
• Abundance of substitute
media
• High quality substitute
media
Threats of Substitution
HIGH
• Economies of scale
• Capital requirements
• low growth
• Internet
Threat of New Entrants
LOW
• Wide and diverse
competitors
• Long, established
competitors
• Exit barriers
Rivalry
MED
Industry
9. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Porter’s Five Forces: Fashion Industry
9 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
• Men, women, and children
• High price sensitivity
• High customer acquisition
price
Buyer Power
HIGH
• Low switching costs
• Economies of scale
• Low product differentiation
Supplier Power
HIGH
• Abundance of substitute
products
• Low switching costs
• High buyer propensity to
substitute
Threats of Substitution
HIGH
• Economies of scale
• High branding costs
• High capital requirements
Threat of New Entrants
LOW
• Competitors are big
• Low long-term growth rates
• Low product differentiation
Rivalry
HIGH
Industry
26. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Leverage Buyout
Company
Criteria
ParentCo FashionCo
Mature industry and/or company √ √
Clean balance sheet with low leverage √ √
Strong management team and potential
synergies
√ √
Steady cash flows √ √
Low future capital expenditure and
working capital requirements
√ √
Possible sale of underperforming/non-
core assets
√ √
Feasible exit options √ √
26 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Summary
27. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Conclusion
Impact Capital Partners should:
− Make an offer to purchase ParentCo – $573.1 million
− Capital Structure:
− Make an offer to purchase FashionCo if they meet their 2016 projections
− Pursue a 2020 exit strategy to maximize IRR:
− Break up the ParentCo by industry
27 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Downside Case Base Case Upside Case
33.7% 34.3% 40.2%
Sources & Uses of Funds
Mult. of
Sources of Funds ($mm) 2015 EBITDA Uses of Funds ($mm)
Revolver $0.0 0.0x Purchase equity $570.3
Term Loan 282.8 3.5x Repay bank debt 70.1
Subordinated notes 0.0 0.0x Financing Fees 6.4
Mezzanine Debt 202.0 2.5x Other Fees & Expenses 2.0
Impact Capital Partners Equity 96.7 1.2x Cash on balance sheet (67.2)
Total Sources of Funds $581.5 7.2x Total Uses of Funds $581.5
Summary
29. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Alternative Options
− Roll over the non-public existing shareholder equity
− Public share repurchase
− Seek other private equity partners
− Raise capital from private investors
29 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Alternatives
31. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Appendix Index
31 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Appendix
Company Background: ParentCo 32
Company Background: fashionCo 33
SWOT Analysis 34
Valuation Analysis: MediaCo 35
Valuation Analysis: ApparelCo 37
Valuation Analysis: FashionCo 39
Comparable Company Transactions 41
Comparable Public Companies 43
WACC Analysis 45
Control Premium Analysis 47
Assumptions and Financial Models 48
32. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
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Capital Partners
Company Background: ParentCo
32 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Founded approximately 40 years ago by Harvey Masterson
Comprised on two entities: MediaCo and ApparelCo
− Few synergies due to differences in industries
MediaCo
Publishing of daily, weekly and monthly
periodicals focused on consumer product
reviews
− Account for over 90% of revenues
− Niche market of 45 to 65 year olds
Consumer product reviews website
Small television production company
− Not very profitable. However, enhances marketing
reach
Considerations:
− Limited opportunities for organic growth in the
coming years, except for attracting a younger
audience
ApparelCo
Funded 10 years ago by William Masterson
Design, development, sourcing, marketing, and
distribution of apparel for men and women
High quality and fashionable products
Target audience between the age 18 and 35 years
old
Lower margins due to higher SG&A expenses
Considerations:
− Management believes that by achieving a greater
scale and streamlining operations they can reduce
SG&A expenses by 2% of revenue
Appendix
33. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Company Background: FashionCo
33 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Founded 40 years ago
Privately held by a small group of passive investors
Engages in design, sourcing, marketing, and distribution of apparel and accessories for
men, women and children
− Products known for their affordability
Products are carried by major apparel retailers throughout the country
Retail and outlet stores sales account for less than 10% of total sales
Open for sale after 2016
− Open to alternative structures such as stock rollover or earn-out
Considerations:
− Synergies between ApparelCo and FashionCo could reduce SG&A expenses by 3.5% per year
Appendix
34. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
SWOT Analysis by Company
34 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Strengths
MediaCo
Long, established company
ApparelCo
High quality and fashionable apparel
Young target audience
Revenue growth in line with comp. companies
FashionCo
Ample distribution channels
Affordable products
Weaknesses
MediaCo
Non-diversified revenue stream
Low profits in Production portion
ApparelCo
Few synergies with MediaCo
Lower profit margins
FashionCo
Lack of owners interest in industry
Untrendy products
Opportunities
MediaCo
Capturing new market segment
Strengthening brands
ApparelCo
Faster future growth than MediaCo
Economies of scale
FashionCo
Increase sales percentage in brick and mortar
stores
Threats
MediaCo
Low industry future expected growth
ApparelCo
Possible request for a seat in the board of
directors from activist hedge funds
FashionCo
Lack of customer interest
Economic downturn can impact demand
InternalExternal
Positive Negative
Appendix
35. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Purchase Price
$392.4 ($mm)
Multiples 2014A 2015E
Sales 0.7x 0.7x
EBITDA 6.1x 6.7x
$265.7
$195.0
$262.1
$178.6
$560.8
$441.7
$553.1
$404.6
$419.2
$269.7
$819.4
$573.4
$808.2
$525.2
$736.3
$603.7
$726.2
$553.0
$656.3
$528.5
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
2014A Sales
2014A EBITDA
2015E Sales
2015E EBITDA
Perp. Method
Multiple Method
Implied Total Enterprise Value ($ in millions)
Relevant
Mulitple
Precedent
Transactions
3.0x-8.9x
0.5x-1.5x
0.5x-1.5x
3.0x-8.9x
Multiple Method:
3.0x-8.9x exit multiple
8.8-10.8% discount rate
Perp. Method:
1.0-3.0% growth rate
8.8-10.8% discount rateDCF Analysis
6.9x-9.4x
6.9x-9.4x
1.0x-1.4x
1.0x-1.5x
Public
Comparables
$392.4
Precedent
Transactions
Fit
Transaction 3
Transaction 6
Transaction 7
Transaction 9
Public
Comparables
Fit
NYT Company
Time Inc.
MediaCo
Financial Data ($mm)
2014A 2015E
Sales $535.1 $527.8
EBITDA $64.1 $58.7
Illustrative Valuation Analysis: MediaCo
35 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Source: ACG Cup 2015 Case
Appendix
41. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Comparable Company Analysis – Comparable Transactions: Media
41 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
($ in millions)
Announced Target EV / EV / EBITDA
Transaction Date Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Margin
Transaction 1 2014 $972 NA 11.7x NA $83 NA
Transaction 2 2014 690 NA NA NA NA NA
Transaction 3 2014 511 1.5x 8.9x $334 58 17.2%
Transaction 4 2014 350 NA NA NA NA NA
Transaction 5 2014 25 0.2x 6.9x 139 4 2.6%
Transaction 6 2014 6 0.5x 3.5x 13 2 14.2%
Transaction 7 2013 105 0.8x 8.9x 140 12 8.4%
Transaction 8 2013 76 1.9x NA 41 NA NA
Transaction 9 2013 82 0.5x 3.0x 162 27 16.7%
Transaction 10 2013 252 1.1x NA 239 NA NA
Transaction 11 2013 3 0.3x NA 12 NA NA
Transaction 12 2013 829 2.1x 8.0x 386 103 26.7%
Transaction 13 2013 201 NA NA NA NA NA
Transaction 14 2013 355 2.1x 11.3x 171 31 18.4%
Transaction 15 2013 108 NA 17.0x NA 6 NA
Transaction 16 2013 214 2.7x NA 80 NA NA
Transaction 17 2012 13 0.3x 8.7x 42 1 3.5%
Transaction 18 2012 86 1.0x 5.2x 85 16 19.5%
Transaction 19 2012 15 0.4x 8.6x 41 2 4.3%
Min $3 0.2x 3.0x
Max 972 2.7x 17.0x
Median 108 0.9x 8.6x
Mean 258 1.1x 8.5x
Appendix
43. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
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Capital Partners
Comparable Public Companies: Media Industry
43 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
(figures in millions except per share amount)
Shares LTM LTM LTM LTM EBITDA Sales EBITDA
Company Ticker Stock Price Outstanding Debt Cash Sales EBITDA EBIT Earnings TEV Margin Multiple Multiple
Gannett Co., Inc. GCI 31.50 225.6 4,112.6 1,374.5 5,675.2 1,254.7 1,023.9 476.9 9,846.0 22.1% 1.7x 7.8x
Lee Enterprises, Incorporated LEE 3.73 53.7 815.0 17.8 657.1 160.2 112.9 (85.1) 997.6 24.4% 1.5x 6.2x
The McClatchy Company MNI 3.56 86.7 1,560.3 225.1 1,215.2 248.9 144.6 83.9 1,644.1 20.5% 1.4x 6.6x
The New York Times Company NYT 12.84 150.3 669.4 414.6 1,587.7 232.1 152.8 64.1 2,184.6 14.6% 1.4x 9.4x
Time Inc. TIME 22.59 109.0 1,376.0 325.0 3,352.0 510.0 352.0 8.0 3,512.6 15.2% 1.0x 6.9x
Min $997.6 1.0x 6.2x
Max $9,846.0 1.7x 9.4x
Median $2,184.6 1.4x 6.9x
Mean $3,637.0 1.4x 7.4x
Appendix
44. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Comparable Public Companies: Apparel and Fashion
44 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
(figures in millions except per share amount)
Shares LTM LTM LTM LTM EBITDA Sales EBITDA
Company Ticker Stock Price Outstanding Debt Cash Sales EBITDA EBIT Earnings TEV Margin Multiple Multiple
Ever-Glory International Group, Inc. EVK 6.19 14.8 55.4 25.0 422.3 27.0 20.8 12.8 121.9 6.4% 0.3x 4.5x
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. GIII 79.35 22.4 71.2 21.5 1,931.7 152.4 135.9 80.2 1,825.9 7.9% 0.9x 12.0x
Oxford Industries Inc. OXM 61.25 16.5 108.5 6.4 951.8 121.9 85.3 45.9 1,110.8 12.8% 1.2x 9.1x
Perry Ellis International Inc. PERY 20.45 15.7 172.5 49.2 899.0 34.7 21.3 (25.1) 444.9 3.9% 0.5x 12.8x
PVH Corp. PVH 114.35 82.4 3,907.4 461.1 8,250.7 1,202.2 948.9 321.0 12,867.9 14.6% 1.6x 10.7x
V.F. Corporation VFC 67.68 431.1 2,083.5 496.5 11,993.4 2,047.8 1,775.2 1,293.1 30,763.9 17.1% 2.6x 15.0x
Min $121.9 0.3x 4.5x
Max $30,763.9 2.6x 15.0x
Median $1,468.3 1.1x 11.3x
Mean $7,855.9 1.2x 10.7x
Appendix
45. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
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Capital Partners
WACC Analysis: Media
45 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Cost of DebtDebt
Market
Value of
Equity
Total
Capitalization
Debt to
Equity
Debt to Total
Capitalization
Gannett Co., Inc. $4,112.6 $7,107.9 $11,220.5 57.9% 36.7% 4.2%
Lee Enterprises, Incorporated 815.0 200.4 1,015.4 406.8% 80.3% 4.5%
The McClatchy Company 1,560.3 308.8 1,869.1 505.3% 83.5% 5.5%
The New York Times
Company 669.4 1,929.9 2,599.2 34.7% 25.8% 3.9%
Time Inc. 1,376.0 2,461.6 3,837.6 55.9% 35.9% 4.3%
Min 669.4 200.4 1,015.4 34.7% 25.8% 3.9%
Max 4,112.6 7,107.9 11,220.5 505.3% 83.5% 5.5%
Median $1,376.0 $1,929.9 $2,599.2 57.9% 36.7% 4.3%
Mean 1,706.7 2,401.7 4,108.4 212.1% 52.4% 4.5%
Appendix
46. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
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Capital Partners
WACC Analysis: Apparel
46 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Debt
Market
Value of
Equity
Total
Capitalization
Debt to
Equity
Debt to Total
CapitalizationCost Of Debt
Ever-Glory International
Group, Inc. $55.4 $91.6 $146.9 60.5% 37.7% 2.6%
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. 71.2 1,776.2 1,847.4 4.0% 3.9% 4.5%
Oxford Industries Inc. 108.5 1,008.7 1,117.2 10.8% 9.7% 5.5%
Perry Ellis International Inc. 172.5 321.6 494.1 53.6% 34.9% 4.3%
PVH Corp. 3,907.4 9,421.6 13,329.0 41.5% 29.3% 4.3%
V.F. Corporation 2,083.5 29,176.9 31,260.4 7.1% 6.7% 4.3%
Min 55.4 91.6 146.9 4.0% 3.9% 2.6%
Max 3,907.4 29,176.9 31,260.4 60.5% 37.7% 5.5%
Median $140.5 $1,392.5 $1,482.3 26.1% 19.5% 4.3%
Mean 1,066.4 6,966.1 8,032.5 29.6% 20.4% 4.3%
Appendix
47. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
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Capital Partners
Control Premium Analysis
47 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Control Premium % Paid in Recent Transactions
Median
Control Number of
Premium Transactions
All Transactions
2014 26.2% 764
2013 20.7% 777
2012 20.6% 565
Manufacturing - Apparel
2014 34.9% 8
2013 11.0% 4
2012 32.8% 5
Printing, Publishing and Allied Industries
2014 15.2% 11
2013 12.1% 14
2012 18.2% 8
Appendix
48. Recommendation Company Industry QuantitativeIntro → AppendixSummary Alternatives
Impact
Capital Partners
Refer to Assumptions and Financial Models Supplement
48 | CONFIDENTIAL – ACG Cup 2015
Assumptions and Financial Models
Appendix
Editor's Notes
Initial stock price $18.31
Current stock price $16.53
Shareholders are not willing to sell the subsidiaries separately
Management team would like to remain with the Company following the transaction and to continue building the business they imagined capable of creating a more efficient company and expading it into new profitable markets
Revenue growth rates
- MediaCo 2% by 2020
- ApparelCo 8.5% flat
Synergies due to the reduction in duplicative back office functions bewteen ApparelCo and FashionCo will result in a 3.5% reduction in the SG&A expenses per year