A Fresh Look at Estimation    敏捷估算的新视角        Alan Atlas
Alan Atlas CST, CSCAgile Conference 2012
http://www.flickr.com/photos/teuobk/2104039823/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/elenchos-seattle/3839827249/
8
“I think we will beable to release thisfeature five sprints    from now.”
“This feature willcost two complete sprints of our 5  person team.”
“I think we candeliver this project   in 8 sprints.”(Actually we think 6 but we’re padding            to be careful.)
 Estimation   does not create value. (估算无法  产生价值) Estimation does not reduce work. (估算无法  减低工作量) Therefore, estimation ...
 To form an opinion about; evaluate. (形成一  个意见; 评估) A tentative evaluation or rough calculation,  as of worth, quantity,...
An oxymoron is a phrase in which contradictory terms appear side by side.(Oxymoron 指的是在一句话当中出现两个观            念相衝突的字或词)
“I’m almost positive we are done.”“It was a dark night and the moon     shone with silvery light”        Detailed Summary ...
Accurate Estimate(準确的估算)
 Here   is a question I can answer:    How much effort can your team apply to the     project during this sprint? Here ...
24
S                                        L1       2       3       5       8       13    1       2       3       5       8 ...
 Wouldn’tit be nice if every story was the same size?     Every story is then a ‘1’, or else a ‘247’. It      doesn’t ma...
Story              Task                 Pts   Ideal                                              HoursConsolidated        ...
 Mike   Cohn once said:          “If you are not comfortable with story         points, then just pretend one story point...
 Use    ideal hours for tasks      Tasks are small and so are hours. Ifyou estimate effort, then story points and  idea...
Story              Points   Sum of Task                            Ideal HoursDisplay Time         2          4Enter Time ...
 Variable   part timers (隨時在改變的臨時工人  員數) Specialists (專家) Learning curve (學習曲線)
Team         Percent     Project       Days       Total projectMember      Allocated   Hours per    Available       hours ...
 Always estimate           Estimate when Relative estimation        necessary  using Planning Poker      Estimate by s...
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)
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Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)

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讲师: Alan Atlas

目前是Scanbuy, Inc. 的技术总裁。从事专业技术超过30年。从布朗大学的心理学学士,到麻省大学电机工程学士,他随后加入了贝尔实验室作为一名硬件工程师,然后迅速去乔治亚理工学院并拿到了电机工程硕士学位。在贝尔实验室的那段时间,他接触了软件,并自学了C语言编程。进入软件开发领域以后,Alan花了一些时间在数据获取工作站的实时UNIX内核中开发内核功能。被升级为OS开发组经理后,Alan开始了25年的技术经理生涯。在这期间他荣升至高级副总裁级别,之后他自动降回开发部经理,因为那个职位好玩很多。那些年的主要事件包括OSF Motif 1.0的发布和AvidNews 1.0的发布。AvidNews 1.0是行业中获奖的广播新闻管理系统,由Avid技术支持。

在亚马逊担任网络服务部高级开发经理时,Alan发现了Scrum。他成为了认证ScrumMaster,并带领他的团队在使用Scrum一年之后,成功发布Amazon S3。这成为Codie奖获奖的网络服务,提供了无限网络连接存储。Amazon S3项目的成功,以及Alan对Scrum方法的热爱,使Scrum在亚马逊网广泛散布开来。Allan成为了认证Scrum培训师和亚马逊第一个全职敏捷培训师和教练。他的经验使他立志成为认证Scrum教练,然后转换职业为全职敏捷教练和培训师。Alan在2009年敏捷大会和慕尼黑Scrum聚会中做过演讲。

话题介绍:
多年来估算的技巧一直是Scrum里面困扰着大多数人的领域. 让我们大家一起在Alan大师的引导下来重新细细的审视这门技巧. 使之变得更简洁, 更加符合敏捷的理念. 为什么需要估算? 多久(重)估算一次? 我们可以不使用传统基于复杂度,时间,心力,以及怀疑的估算方法吗? 在本次的演讲当中, Alan大师将为听众比较不同的估算法, 包括了Wideband Delphi, Planning Poker, The Team Estimation Game, 以及The Backdoor 等方法之间的差异. 何时应该估算工作量和团队的能力? 为何我们应该同时考虑理想时数和故事点数? 它们之间又有何不同呢? 以上所有的疑问都将由Alan 大师以其十多年的敏捷以及Scrum的经验和独到的见解为您解答。

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Scrum gathering 2012 shanghai 播种敏捷分会场演讲话题:敏捷估算的新视角(Alan Atlas)

  1. 1. A Fresh Look at Estimation 敏捷估算的新视角 Alan Atlas
  2. 2. Alan Atlas CST, CSCAgile Conference 2012
  3. 3. http://www.flickr.com/photos/teuobk/2104039823/
  4. 4. http://www.flickr.com/photos/elenchos-seattle/3839827249/
  5. 5. 8
  6. 6. “I think we will beable to release thisfeature five sprints from now.”
  7. 7. “This feature willcost two complete sprints of our 5 person team.”
  8. 8. “I think we candeliver this project in 8 sprints.”(Actually we think 6 but we’re padding to be careful.)
  9. 9.  Estimation does not create value. (估算无法 产生价值) Estimation does not reduce work. (估算无法 减低工作量) Therefore, estimation is ‘waste’ in Lean terms. (因此, 从精益的角度来看, 估算是一种’ 浪费’) And… Estimates can be mistaken as commitments (同时, 估算时常被误认为就是承诺)
  10. 10.  To form an opinion about; evaluate. (形成一 个意见; 评估) A tentative evaluation or rough calculation, as of worth, quantity, or size. (一种暂时性的 评估或者大概的有关於价值, 数量, 或者大小的 计算) A judgment based on one‘s impressions; an opinion. (根据一个人的印象所作的判断) Usually implies a subjective and somewhat inexact judgment (通常隐含了一种主观且不 怎麽準确的判断)
  11. 11. An oxymoron is a phrase in which contradictory terms appear side by side.(Oxymoron 指的是在一句话当中出现两个观 念相衝突的字或词)
  12. 12. “I’m almost positive we are done.”“It was a dark night and the moon shone with silvery light” Detailed Summary American Culture Military Intelligence Adult Male
  13. 13. Accurate Estimate(準确的估算)
  14. 14.  Here is a question I can answer:  How much effort can your team apply to the project during this sprint? Here is a question I cannot answer:  How much complexity can your team complete during this sprint? Hereis what I do when I can’t answer a question:  I make a guess!
  15. 15. 24
  16. 16. S L1 2 3 5 8 13 1 2 3 5 8 13 1 2 3 5 8 13 1 2 5 8 2 5 2 25
  17. 17.  Wouldn’tit be nice if every story was the same size?  Every story is then a ‘1’, or else a ‘247’. It doesn’t matter. We can do that by splitting stories until they are all about the same size. This gets us all of the benefits of splitting at the same time that it eliminates estimating. No need to estimate. This works exceptionally well in kanban.
  18. 18. Story Task Pts Ideal HoursConsolidated 13Financial Report Design Integration 2 Data Structure Import from first 6 data source… … … …
  19. 19.  Mike Cohn once said: “If you are not comfortable with story points, then just pretend one story point equals one ideal day.” Mike Cohn forgot to say: “Only do that until you figure out story points because it is not really true. It is a trick to help you get started.”
  20. 20.  Use ideal hours for tasks  Tasks are small and so are hours. Ifyou estimate effort, then story points and ideal hours are correlated  More story points means more ideal hours because both estimate effort Now, since you estimate stories and tasks differently, the two estimates can be used as a sanity check
  21. 21. Story Points Sum of Task Ideal HoursDisplay Time 2 4Enter Time 5 9ScaleChange Time 3 5DisplaySet Y Axis Scale 1 12Change Y Axis 3 7ScaleAdd Graph Title 3 5
  22. 22.  Variable part timers (隨時在改變的臨時工人 員數) Specialists (專家) Learning curve (學習曲線)
  23. 23. Team Percent Project Days Total projectMember Allocated Hours per Available hours day this sprint available this sprintXianshen 100 6 10 60Brenda 100 6 8 48Li 50 3 10 30Mei 100 6 5 30Jiang 100 6 10 60Daniel 100 6 10 60Total 288Minus 10%ScrumOverhead 260 33
  24. 24.  Always estimate  Estimate when Relative estimation necessary using Planning Poker  Estimate by splitting Story Points and Ideal  Affinity estimation Hours  No task estimation (or Capacity Planning no tasks!) Complexity, Effort,  Capacity planning and Doubt when necessary 1 Story Point = 1 Day Old Days Nowadays

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