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Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
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Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09

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  • 1. Climate Change and the Transportation Sector Midwest Transportation Air Quality Summit October 28, 2009 Lewison Lem Principal Consultant Center for Climate Strategies and Jack Faucett Associates
  • 2. Inventories Show Transportation as Sector accounting for the Second Largest Amount of GHG Emissions Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 2
  • 3. The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States The transportation sector (red) produces 28% of GHG emissions in the United States Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 3
  • 4. Selected Midwest States (2003) Transport and Total GHG Emissions (MMtCO2e) State 2003 2003 2003 Transport Total Transport % of Total Illinois 65.5 274.9 23.8% Indiana 47.2 269.0 17.5% Iowa 19.4 116.7 16.6% Michigan 55.7 211.4 26.3% Minnesota 34.8 124.1 28.0% Ohio 69.7 300.7 23.2% Wisconsin 29.6 123.7 23.9% 7 State Subtotal 321.9 1420.5 22.7% Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 4
  • 5. Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003 State Transport Total Transport % Total % Annual Rate Annual Increase Increase % Increase Rate % Increase Illinois 18.4% 15.8% 1.4% 1.2% Indiana 14.0% 18.7% 1.1% 1.4% Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2% Michigan 13.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% Minnesota 43.2% 20.0% 3.3% 1.5% Ohio 21.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.8% Wisconsin 19.4% 15.4% 1.5% 1.2% 7 State 19.8% 13.5% 1.5% 1.0% Subtotal Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 5
  • 6. Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG Emissions by Mode of Travel Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 6
  • 7. United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020 4,500 4,000 3,500 Annual VMT (billions) 3,000 2,500 Heavy Duty Trucks Medium Duty Trucks 2,000 Light Trucks Automobiles 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 7
  • 8. United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020 35 30 Other Marine 25 Bunker Fuel Ethanol (E85) Quadrillion Btus 20 Jet Fuel 15 Diesel 10 Gasoline 5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 8
  • 9. US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFE 40 Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe) 35 New LDV MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 30 Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 25 20 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 9
  • 10. US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE 40 Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe) New LDV MPG with 35 Obama 2009 CAFÉ New LDV 30 MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 25 Total LDV Fleet MPG with Obama 20 2009 CAFE Total LDV Fleet MPG 15 with EISA 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2007 CAFE Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 10
  • 11. Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG Emissions and Fuel Economy Standards (http://www.theicct.org/documents/ICCT_GlobalStandards_2007.pdf) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 11
  • 12. US Potential for GHG Emissions Reductions from Vehicle Purchase Incentives 0.0% 2,400 US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e) 2,200 -1.8% in 2020 -6.3% in 2020 2,000 EISA 2007 CAFE 1,800 Obama 2009 CAFE 1,600 Obama 2009 CAFE + 1,400 Incentives 1,200 1,000 -4000.0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 12
  • 13. Vehicle Purchase Incentives: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 1,792 Billion Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings 22.71 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions $3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs $7.6 B Decrease in Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Costs $4.5 B Decrease in Net Costs $195 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 13
  • 14. US Potential for GHG Emissions Reductions from Advanced Biofuels US On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0.0% 2,400 US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e) 2,200 -1.8% -6.7% 2,000 EISA 2007 CAFE 1,800 Obama 2009 CAFE 1,600 Obama 2009 CAFE + Renewable Fuels 1,400 1,200 1,000 -4000.0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 14
  • 15. Advanced Biofuels: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 600 Million Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings 1.49 Billion Gallons Added Ethanol Consumption 10.45 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 15
  • 16. Truck Anti-Idling: Anti- 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 4 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings 9.22 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs $2.07 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs $0. 77 B Decrease in Net Costs $83 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 16
  • 17. Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 10.28 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings 16.20 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions $1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs $4.4 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs $3.2 B Decrease in Net Costs $196 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 17
  • 18. “Double” Transit Ridership: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 328 Million Gallons in Auto Gasoline Savings 3.8 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions Capital and O&M Costs not yet estimated $822 M Decrease in Auto Gasoline Fuel Costs (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 18
  • 19. Global Comparisons Show Gradient of Per Capita Transportation Energy Use in Urban Areas Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 19
  • 20. UK transport CO2 emissions Intensity Map, 2005 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 20
  • 21. London Metro Transport CO2 emissions intensity, 2005 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 21
  • 22. Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 22
  • 23. Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region: Atlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showed 35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites. Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 23
  • 24. For Further Information: www.climatestrategies.us http://www.jfaucett.com/ LemCCS@gmail.com Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 24

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