Fis future of ski tourism-2012
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Fis future of ski tourism-2012

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Featuring the state of the industry today, the market evolution since 2000, international skiers flows, market drivers, industry trends and challenges of the future.

Featuring the state of the industry today, the market evolution since 2000, international skiers flows, market drivers, industry trends and challenges of the future.

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Fis future of ski tourism-2012 Fis future of ski tourism-2012 Presentation Transcript

  • The future of international ski tourismLaurent Vanat FIS Conference 2012 6 October 2012 – Zurich LV/08/10/2012
  • Agenda The state of the industry today Market evolution since 2000 International flows Market drivers Industry trendsLaurent Vanat Challenges of the future page 2
  • The state of theLaurent Vanat industry today LV/08/10/2012
  • The world ski market 80 countries 2’000 ski resorts 6’000 places of practice 27’000 liftsLaurent Vanat page 4
  • Market metrics Skier : one person practising ski, snowboard or other downhill slide, independent of the rate of practice. Skier visit : one person visiting a ski area for all or any part of a day or night for the purpose of skiing, snowboarding, or other downhillLaurent Vanat sliding. Skier visits include full-day, half-day, night, complimentary, adult, child, season pass and any other type of ticket that gives a skier/snowboarder the use of an areas facilities. page 5
  • Who are the skiers ? Spread of the skiers upon country of origin (110 million skiers estimated worldwide) Various Asia & Pacific Alps 1% 19% 21%Laurent Vanat America 20% Western Eastern Europe Europe & 26% Central Asia 13% page 6
  • Where do they ski ? Market share in the worldwide skier visits (400 million yearly skier visits) Asia & Pacific Various 15% 0%Laurent Vanat America 23% Alps Eastern 46% Europe & Western Central Asia Europe 5% 11% page 7
  • Major players (countries) A limited number of countries concentrate most of the attendance 70 countries Others 7 countries 22%Laurent Vanat Majors 78% page 8
  • Top countries in the world United States France Austria Japan Switzerland Italy Canada Germany Sweden Spain Korea, South Norway China Slovakia Russia CzechLaurent Vanat Finland Andorra Poland Australia Argentina Slovenia New Zealand In million skier visits Chile Romania 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 page 9
  • Major playersCountry Austria Canada France Italy Japan Switze USA rlandNumber of ski areas 254 288 325 349 547 240 481Number of major 12 1 14 4 0 7 7resorts (>1 mio SV)Number of lifts 3028 922 3685 2127 2422 1774 2970Skier visits (million) 52 19 56 23 29 27 58Population (million) 8 33 64 58 127 8 304Ranking in world 12 15 1 5 28 27 2tourismLaurent VanatArrivals of 21 16 74 43 7 8 55international tourists(million)Proportion of foreign 66% 14% 28% 15% 3% 50% 6%skiersSV / inhabitant 2,2 0,5 0,6 0,3 0,2 1,8 0,2SV / foreign visitor 1,6 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 1,6 0,1 page 10
  • Some outsidersCountry Iran Iceland Kazak Kyrgyz Lesoth Lithua Monte hstan stan o nia negroNumber of ski areas 19 13 10 16 1 11 4Number of major 0 0 0 0 0 0 0resorts (>1 mio SV)Number of lifts 51 49 25 24 1 19 23Skier visits (million) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0Population (million) 66 0 15 5 2 4 1Ranking in world #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/AtourismLaurent VanatArrivals of 2 1 3 2 0 2 1international tourists(million)Proportion of foreign 1% 5% 2% 20% 90% 10% 25%skiersSV / inhabitant 0,0 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3SV / foreign visitor 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 page 11
  • Top resorts of the world La Plagne SkiWelt Wilder Kaiser-Brixental Les Arcs Courchevel-Méribel-Mottaret Kitzbuehl Ischgl/Samnaun Silvretta Arena Saalbach Hinterglemm Leogang LAlpe dHuez Whistler Blackcomb Val Thorens Soelden Zillertal 3000 -Mayrhofen Les Ménuires Tignes Flachau-Wagrein-Alpendorf Davos-Klosters Zermatt Breckenridge Serre-Chevallier Mammoth Vail Chamonix St. Moritz Adelboden-Lenk Planai-Hochwurzen-Hauser-Kaibling-Reiteralm Val dIsèreLaurent Vanat Les Deux-Alpes Flaine-Morillon-Samoens-Sixt Serfaus-Fiss-Ladis Zillertalarena St. Anton/St. Christoph/Stuben Jungfrauregion Keystone Verbier Avoriaz Gstaad-Region Méribel Steamboat Killington In million skier visits Hochzillertal-Hochfuegen-Kaltenbach Copper Mountain 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 page 12
  • Market evolutionLaurent Vanat since 2000 LV/08/10/2012
  • Laurent Vanat 20 00 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 20 -01 180 01 20 -02 02 20 -03 03 20 -04 04 20 -05 05 20 -06 06 Europe - Alps 20 -07 07 20 -08 08 Skier visits (mio) 20 -09 09 20 -10 10 20 -11 11 -1 2 - 3.5 %page 14
  • Europe - Alps Attendance is still on a growing long term trend in some countries Evolution of the 5 years average attendance (mio skier visits) 58 56 54 AustriaLaurent Vanat 52 50 France 48 46 44 0 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 -0 -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -0 -0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 page 15
  • Europe - Alps ... while on a rather declining trend in some others, with an unpredictable tendency for Italy Evolution of the 5 years average attendance (mio skier visits) 30 29 28Laurent Vanat Italy 27 Switzerland 26 25 24 5 20 06 20 07 8 20 09 0 20 11 2 -0 -0 -1 -1 - - - - 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 page 16
  • Laurent Vanat 20 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20 -01 01 20 -02 02 20 -03 03 20 -04 04 20 -05 05 20 -06 06 20 -07 North America 07 20 -08 08 Skier visits (mio) 20 -09 09 20 -10 10 20 -11 11 -1 2 -12.7 %page 17
  • North America Mature markets; USA however successfully fighting against decline in visitation Evolution of the 5 years average attendance (mio skier visits) 59 20 58 19 57 19Laurent Vanat 56 18 55 18 United States 54 17 Canada (right) 53 17 52 16 51 16 50 15 20 05 6 20 07 20 08 20 09 0 20 11 2 -0 -1 -1 - - - - - 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 page 18
  • Laurent Vanat 20 00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 20 -01 45 01 20 -02 02 20 -03 03 20 -04 04 20 -05 05 20 -06 06 20 -07 07 20 -08 08 Skier visits (mio) 20 -09 09 20 -10 10 20 -11 11 -1 2 - 3.2 %page 19 Europe – Other western countries
  • Europe – Other western countries Norway still showing some real growth trend, while Andorra and Spain suffering Evolution of the 5 years average attendance (mio skier visits) 9 8 7 Andorra 6 SpainLaurent Vanat 5 4 Finland 3 Norway 2 Sweden 1 0 5 7 6 8 9 0 2 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 page 20
  • Laurent Vanat 20 00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 20 /0 01 1 20 /0 02 2 20 /0 03 3 20 /0 04 4 20 /0 05 5 Asia - Pacific 20 /0 06 6 20 /0 07 7 20 /0 08 8 Skier visits (million) 20 /0 09 9 20 /1 10 0 /1 1 - 5.2 %page 21
  • Asia - Pacific Decline in Japan, growth in China and South Korea, maturity in Australia / New Zealand Evolution of the 5 years average attendance (million skier visits) 7 60 6 50 5 South KoreaLaurent Vanat 40 4 Australia 30 New Zealand 3 China 20 2 Japan (right) 1 10 0 0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 page 22
  • Developing markets China : – About 300 ski practice areas, mostly with very limited equipmentLaurent Vanat – Development / opening of 300 more ski areas expected over the next 10 years – Emergence of a middle class in a young and sportive population, generating an increased demand – Expected skiers potential: 120 million (present situation estimated to 5 million skiers) page 23
  • Developing markets 20 18 16 Number of ski areas 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 75 81 84 99 02 78 87 90 93 96 05 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20Laurent Vanat South Korea : – Continuous growth since 1975 – Industry focused on young people, offering a lot of fun – Concepts close to amusement parks (sometimes combined) page 24
  • Developing markets Mongolia : – First ski resort just opened near Ulaanbaatar, with state of the art equipment, including snowmaking and night ski.Laurent Vanat page 25
  • Developing markets Many others ... – Armenia – Montenegro – Azerbaijan – Poland – Bulgaria – Rumania – Estonia – Russia – Hungary – TurkeyLaurent Vanat – Kazakhstan – Ukraine – Lithuania – ... page 26
  • Very small markets Afri-Ski, Lesotho : one trail produced with snowmaking equipment, on developmentLaurent Vanat page 27
  • Laurent Vanat International skiers flows LV/08/10/2012
  • National skiers Strength of national customer base of most of the big players. Foreign visitors concentrate on a few top international resorts. Share of foreign visitors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%Laurent Vanat 40% Domestic Foreigners 30% 20% 10% 0% Czech Bulgaria China Ukraine France Slovenia Canada Slovakia United States Italy Hungary Norway Japan Korea, South Spain Sweden Finland Poland Switzerland New Zealand Romania Andorra Austria Australia Germany page 29
  • National vs international Share in the number of skiers of foreign visitors is less than one sixth of total attendance Internationals 14%Laurent Vanat Nationals 86% page 30
  • Inbound & outbound skiers Share of the various Share of the various home destinations in inbound countries of outbound international skiers international skiers East Europe America Asia Asia Alps 0% 2% 7% Various 1% 5% America 3% East 1% 6% 6%Laurent Vanat Alps Europe 81% 88% page 31
  • Skiers’ international flows Mostly concentrated on intra-European flowsLaurent Vanat page 32
  • Reality check Weigh of international customers is limited for most ski destination countries International catchments areas are limited – Markets size – Issue of transportation Travel time & cost Saturation of airport at ski destinationsLaurent Vanat Overseas skiers are anecdotic minorities page 33
  • Reality check Outbound European markets are not increasing but will be spread over more destinations in the future – British customers Romania Slovakia New markets are feeding themselvesLaurent Vanat – Development of ski in Asia will feed Japan and South Korea page 34
  • Laurent Vanat Market drivers LV/08/10/2012
  • World evolution Skier visits of top players (in million) 400 Sweden Spain 350 Slovenia Norway 300 New Zealand Korea, South 250 Germany 200 Finland ChinaLaurent Vanat 150 Australia Andorra 100 United States Switzerland 50 Japan 0 Italy France 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 Canada /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Austria 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 page 36
  • In search for correlation ... Majors : despite GDP growth and tourism still developing, skier visits follows and other pattern 120 115 on a 100 basis for 2001 110 105 International tourists arrivalsLaurent Vanat 100 Overnight stays 95 Skier visits 90 GDP 85 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 page 37
  • In search for correlation ... Challengers : pace of development of ski has been stronger than the other indicators ! 150 140 on a 100 basis for 2001 130 International tourists 120 arrivalsLaurent Vanat Overnight stays 110 Skier visits 100 GDP 90 80 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 page 38
  • Weather - sun Sunny days do not guarantee a good ski season Switzerland 32000000 850 30000000 800 750 28000000 700 26000000 650Laurent Vanat 24000000 600 22000000 550 20000000 500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Skier visits Sunny days (score) page 39
  • Snowfall Visitation at ski resorts is not so well correlated with snowfall either (example : USA)Laurent Vanat RRC Associates page 40
  • Exchange rates Weak GBP has globally low impact on attendance; strong CHF may have some (to be confirmed) Alps (Eurozone) Switzerland 1,80 160000000 3,00 35000000 1,60 140000000 30000000 2,50 1,40 120000000 25000000 1,20 2,00 100000000 20000000Laurent Vanat 1,00 80000000 1,50 0,80 15000000 60000000 0,60 1,00 10000000 40000000 0,40 0,50 5000000 0,20 20000000 0,00 0 0,00 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 skier visits Austria / France / Italy rate GBP/EUR skier visits Switzerland rate EUR/CHF rate GBP/CHF page 41
  • The growth of Internet ... ... does not seem to correlate with development of attendance at ski resorts ! 3000 2500 Estimated Internet users (mio) Skier visits (mio) 2000 1500Laurent Vanat 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 page 42
  • Ski resorts & Facebook fans Nice to have, but still not the market driver ! Facebook fans in % of skiers in resorts > 1 mio skier visits United States Andorra Canada Sweden SpainLaurent Vanat Austria Korea, South Switzerland France Italy 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Survey 1.4.2012 page 43
  • Online sales (ski passes) Only 3% of tickets sales done online in Switzerland (survey 2009/10 winter season) online sales 3%Laurent Vanat others 97% page 44
  • Industry trendsLaurent Vanat LV/08/10/2012
  • Master planning improvement Flow optimisation – global approachLaurent Vanat page 46
  • Lifts : less but better Reduction of the number of lifts Evolution of the number of lifts in France and Switzerland 4500 4000 3500 3000Laurent Vanat 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 page 47
  • New lifts New lifts deliveries by regions 400 350 300 Various 250 Europe East 200 Asia 150 AmericaLaurent Vanat 100 Alps 50 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 page 48
  • Lifts - evolution 2001-2010 renewal rate United States Canada Switzerland France Austria Italy Georgia Korea, SouthLaurent Vanat Serbia Latvia Kazakhstan Belarus Armenia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% page 49
  • Less ski areas Major markets see a decrease in the number of operated ski areas : out of snow line, bankruptcy, restructuring, merger USA: operating ski areas Japan: operating ski areas 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500Laurent Vanat 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 20 -02 20 -03 20 -04 20 05 20 -06 20 -07 20 -08 20 -09 0 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 20 -98 20 04 7 19 95 20 01 -1 -0 - - - - - - - - 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 20 19 page 50
  • Mergers Zermatt, Gstaad, Lenk, Hochtoggenburg (Switzerland)Laurent Vanat page 51
  • Closing of areas Hospental (Switzerland) was closed last season due to financial difficulties.Laurent Vanat page 52
  • Opening of areas Exceptional in 2007/08 : 2 new international resorts : – Revelstoke Moutain, Canada, starting with a gondola and some chairlifts, but aims at becoming the highest vertical in America. Forecasted investment USD 1 billion, over 15 years – Krasnaya Polyana, Russia,Laurent Vanat financed by Gazprom, with grand opening by president Poutine in early 2008. One of the 4 sites of the Sochi Olympics of 2012. page 53
  • Northern Caucasus projects 5 projected ski areas : – Arkhyz (1st chairlift delivered by Poma in 2011) – Elbrus-Bezengi – Lagonaki – Mamison – MatlasLaurent Vanat page 54
  • Jumbo Glacier Resort Development project in British Columbia (Canada) : – 1st resort in North America with 365 days ski, – Highest vertical drop in North America : 1’700 meters (in winter), 700 meters for summer ski Estimated budget 1 billion dollars – 23 lifts – 6’000 lodging unitsLaurent Vanat page 55
  • Artificial slopes Summer leisure centres – Cap Découverte and some other in France – More than 150 in United Kingdom Initiators : – Learning role – SchoolsLaurent Vanat page 56
  • Artificial slopes Loisirnord in Noeux-les-Mines, FranceLaurent Vanat page 57
  • Snowmaking in the desert Jebel Jais Mountain Resort, United Arab Emirates (800- 1200 meters) : project of the first outdoor ski resort of the Persian Gulf, with real snow (manmade). Features : – 8 seat gondola – 4 seaters chairlift – SkiliftLaurent Vanat – 3’000 rooms page 58
  • Ski Indoor About 50 ski domes worldwide Biggest markets : Japan, Netherlands & Great Britain. Exotic places : Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Dubai. Average length of slopes : 300Laurent Vanat meters, up to 500 meters Lifts : magic carpets, towlifts, chairlifts Issue : energetic consumption, snowmaking, economic viability page 59
  • Indoor snow centre Concept of complete themed leisure centres, with snowmaking facilitiesLaurent Vanat page 60
  • Concentrations Development of big operators in France, Scandinavia and North America Resorts Skier visits Lifts Booth Creek 4 2 million 50 Compagnie des Alpes 14 14 million 542 CNL Income Properties Inc 11 3 million 70Laurent Vanat Intrawest 9 8 million 190 Labellemontagne 5 2 million 124 Skistar 8 4 million 226 Sofival 4 4 million 145 Vail Resorts 5 6 million 134 page 61
  • Bankruptcies 2 multi-resorts operators bankrupted in recent years; Operated resorts were redistributed / sold to other operators Resorts Skier visits LiftsLaurent Vanat American Skiing Company 7 4 million 131 Transmontagne 5 2 million 124 page 62
  • Integrated business model Traditional ski-lift Integrated model company modelLaurent Vanat – Lift tickets – Lift tickets – Hospitality – Rentals – Lessons – Leisure – Retail page 63
  • Integrated model Real Estate The operator can thus create new Creation of an villages animated village, to increase length of The place becomes a stay real experience, Attraction of more attracting visitors and more visitors, year long, creating a more and more consistent revenue often, spending stream for the more, coming with operator family and friends More Real Estate,Laurent Vanat Increase of more attraction, occupancy rate attracting always More visitors enable and prices more visitors maximisation of generate and operation, with year increase for long opening of hotels, demand in Real restaurants and shops Estate page 64
  • Real Estate In western resorts, one commercial bed generates about USD 2’000 lift tickets revenue and a further USD 8’000 for the resort in one winter season. Well monitored Real Estate is key to the resort management.Laurent Vanat page 65
  • Laurent Vanat Web based packages page 66
  • Laurent Vanat Improved management page 67
  • Challenges of theLaurent Vanat future LV/08/10/2012
  • Laurent Vanat Demographics page 69
  • Demographics Demographics and practiceLaurent Vanat 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 age page 70
  • Demographics 3 generation are on the slopes, with different profiles and expectations one cannot concentrate on only one group and expect satisfy all guests. Dilemma between satisfaction of younger groups (= the future) and older ones (= high revenue)Laurent Vanat page 71
  • Demographics Baby boomers Generation X Generation Y – Echo boomers (1946-1964) (1965-1978) (1979-2000) 40-43 % of skiers 22-29 % of skiers 20 % of skiers Early adopters of ski Smaller generation Growing importance (headcount) Savour side aspects Will soon bring more (restaurants) Declining attendance skiers on the slopes (phased with family than generation X Brought their development cycle) children and are Price sensitiveLaurent Vanat bringing their Less addicted to ski grandchildren Features sensitive Based on a US study page 72
  • Laurent Vanat Retention page 73
  • Retention Increasing competition of Non skiers other forms of leisure : – Internet – Video games Skiers – TV and Video on demandLaurent Vanat – Fitness – Spas Abandon – Travel – ... page 74
  • Laurent Vanat Climate page 75
  • Climate Numerous studies OECD 2007 : – warming of the Alps is 3 times higher than world average Situation % of “snow safe” resortsLaurent Vanat Present 91 % + 1 degree C 75 % + 2 degrees C 61 % + 4 degrees C 30 % page 76
  • Climate Mitigation of the conclusions Number of resorts is not a representative metrics of the market France, % of resorts reliable - OECD 2007 100% 80%Laurent Vanat 60% Number of resorts 40% Skier days 20% 0% Base reliable reliable +1 +4 page 77
  • Climate Mitigation of the effects : snowmaking Between 23 and 31% of investments in the major alpine countries in 2007 New attempts for summer storage of snow in placesLaurent Vanat like Laax : snowfarming. page 78
  • Climate Snowmaking by positive temperature is possible Several equipments already in operation in France for small surfaces : – Val Louron – Mont LozèreLaurent Vanat page 79
  • Climate In Japan, complete trails are covered with snow made under positive temperatures The country totals about 20 kilometres of such slopes.Laurent Vanat page 80
  • Climate In Zermatt, reconstruction of part of the smelting glacier will be done through a new equipment This snow factory allows production ofLaurent Vanat 40m3 of snow, regardless of the temperature. page 81
  • Laurent Vanat Economy page 82
  • Economy World economy – Impact on attendance – Cyclical effects Financial situation of the operators – Viability of the resorts – Cash flow generation for lift renewals – Balance between investments and revenues ; return onLaurent Vanat investment (EUR 2 – 3 invested must generate EUR 1 yearly turnover) page 83
  • ConclusionLaurent Vanat LV/08/10/2012
  • Vision 2020 Competition to Alpine resorts will increase Sunny beaches overseas Cruises Developing winter destination (Eastern Europe and Asia)Laurent Vanat Exotic resorts, turned into ski area through technology page 85
  • Vision 2020 Some resorts will decline / close Small and medium resorts coming out of the market (lack of attractivity, economic viability, out of snow line). Some resorts will prosper Clear market positioning :Laurent Vanat – Places of exception (Zermatt, Saas Fee, Chamonix …) – Technological advantage (Dolomiti Superski ...) – Outsiders (Ischgl, 2 Alpes …) – Reputation (Gstaad, St. Moritz, Megève, Courchevel ...) page 86
  • Vision 2020 Where will be the leading international destinations of tomorrow ? International resorts of the Alps A few new resorts of international standard in Eastern Europe and Central Asia A couple of “exotic” destinationsLaurent Vanat page 87
  • Laurent Vanat For further reference Available from – www.vanat.ch, page Publications page 88
  • Laurent Vanat 19, MargelleLaurent Vanat CH - 1224 Genève Tel / fax / messagerie : +4122 349 8440 Courriel : vanat@vanat.ch Internet : www.vanat.ch Laurent Vanat LV/08/10/2012