Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 7-08 - Presentation Transcript
Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report May – June 2008
May Numbers - Updated
2231 New Listings
757 Sold Listings
850 Listings Pending
Average 96 Days on Market for Sold Listings
May Numbers - Updated
*Listings Pending may have closed in April, may have closed in May, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.
June Numbers - Preliminary
2226 New Listings
551 Sold Listings
781 Listings Pending
Average 94 Days on Market for Sold Listings
June Numbers - Preliminary
*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 750 closed sales for June.
Days on Market (DoM)
Conclusions
Days on Market usually drop in April, May and June. I expect to see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), June (at 94).
If DoM drops further, or continues to decline in July, that could signal strength.
New, Pending & Sold Listings
Conclusions
I expect to see June Sales come in around 750 units. I was 100 low for May…
Look for New Listings to slow. If coupled with increase in Pendings and Solds, that is a signal of strength.
May Absorption Rates
9931 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of April, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
12 month average: 14.2 months inventory
6 month average: 17.4 months inventory
3 month average: 15.5 months inventory
June Absorption Rates
9864 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of May, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
12 month average: 15.0 months inventory
6 month average: 17.4 months inventory
3 month average: 15.5 months inventory
Conclusions
While the June numbers aren’t final, they are still showing a strengthening of the market.
Look for the 3 month average Absorption Rate to drop under 14.5 months.
If this happens, it will be a clear sign of strengthening.
There is still a long way to go, 6 months is considered balanced.
New/Sold Ratio
This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.
New/Sold Ratio
In May, 34% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.
In June, early numbers point to 25% (1:4)
New/Sold Ratio
Conclusion
The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.
This number tops around 67%
Anything under 33% is very weak.
Look for the mid 30s this summer.
The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.
Average Sales Price
May - $221,567 Down 6.3% from May, 2007
June - $235,701 Down 6.2% from June 2007
Average Sales Price
Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.
This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.
List Price/Sales Price Ratio
May – 96.01%
June – 96.06%
Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5%, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.
Conclusion
List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.
It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.
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