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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09
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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 2 09

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Gwinnett County, GA real estate market report for February 2009

Gwinnett County, GA real estate market report for February 2009

Published in Real Estate
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  • 1. Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report February December 08 – January 09
  • 2. December Numbers - Updated
    • 1291 New Listings
    • 503 Sold Listings
    • 520 Listings Pending
    • Average 93 Days on Market for Sold Listings
  • 3. December Numbers - Final
    • *Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.
  • 4. January Numbers - Preliminary
    • 1881 New Listings
    • 305 Sold Listings
    • 564 Listings Pending
    • Average 101 Days on Market for Sold Listings
  • 5. January Numbers - Preliminary
    • *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 475 closed sales for January.
  • 6. Days on Market (DoM)
  • 7. Conclusions
    • Final for December is 93.
    • I was looking for the under 90… preliminary was 89 days. 93 wasn’t great,
    • For January, preliminary is 101.
    • I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 into February.
  • 8. New, Pending & Sold Listings
  • 9. December Absorption Rates
    • 7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
    • 12 month average: 13.0 months inventory
    • 6 month average: 13.1 months inventory
    • 3 month average: 15.9 months inventory
  • 10. January Absorption Rates
    • 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
    • 12 month average: 13.2 months inventory
    • 6 month average: 14.9 months inventory
    • 3 month average: 19.6 months inventory
  • 11. Conclusions
    • Dec. final numbers showed sales down 12% from 2007. Also important, 7.9% more homes Closed in Dec than went under contract in Nov. The question would be whether these are sales that would have closed in Nov or Jan.
    • December final numbers ended up with a reasonably strong showing compared to preliminaries.
    • There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.
  • 12. New/Sold Ratio
    • This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.
  • 13. New/Sold Ratio
    • In Dec., 39% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 4 sold. I thought we would get to 30%.
    • In Jan., early numbers point to 16% (1:6), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 25% for the final numbers.
  • 14. New/Sold Ratio
  • 15. Conclusion
    • The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.
    • This number tops around 67%
    • Anything under 33% is very weak.
    • I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.
  • 16. Average Sales Price
    • Dec. - $206,741 Down 14.6% from December 2007
    • Jan. - $178,590 Down 20.2% from January 2008
    • The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals.
  • 17. Average Sales Price
    • Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.
    • This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.
  • 18. List Price/Sales Price Ratio
    • December – 93.02%
    • January – 93.80%
    • Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08.
    • Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”
  • 19. Conclusion
    • List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.
    • It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.
    • The indications are also very general.
  • 20. Overall Conclusion
    • Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago (except December).
    • Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few months.
  • 21. Overall Conclusions
    • September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year.
    • I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring.
    • There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.
    • Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.
  • 22. Overall Conclusions
    • I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.
    • I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table.
    • March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season.
    • I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.