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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 12 08
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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 12 08

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December 2008 Market Analysis for Gwinnett County, GA

December 2008 Market Analysis for Gwinnett County, GA

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    Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 12 08 Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 12 08 Presentation Transcript

    • Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report December October-November 2008
    • October Numbers - Updated
      • 1740 New Listings
      • 577 Sold Listings
      • 568 Listings Pending
      • Average 81 Days on Market for Sold Listings
    • October Numbers - Updated
      • *Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in October, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.
    • November Numbers - Preliminary
      • 1362 New Listings
      • 164 Sold Listings
      • 410 Listings Pending
      • Average 93 Days on Market for Sold Listings
    • November Numbers - Preliminary
      • *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 450 closed sales for November.
    • Days on Market (DoM)
    • Conclusions
      • Final for October is 81.
      • For November I was looking for the low 80s… preliminary is 93 days. That is not good.
      • But, I think only about a third of the sale data is in the book.
      • I would like to see a continued drop for December. Strength would be in the low 80s.
    • New, Pending & Sold Listings
    • Conclusions
      • I was looking for October Solds to come in around 650 and it was 577.
      • I am looking to be around 1600 for Nov, and came in at 1364… so far. If we stay down here it is good.
      • We need to get under 1300 in December. There are still too many listings, over 8500 active in Gwinnett.
    • October Absorption Rates
      • 8769 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
      • 12 month average: 14.2 months inventory
      • 6 month average: 12.6 months inventory
      • 3 month average: 13.6 months inventory
    • Nov. Absorption Rates
      • 9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Oct., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
      • 12 month average: 14.6 months inventory
      • 6 month average: 14.3 months inventory
      • 3 month average: 18.1 months inventory
    • Conclusions
      • Nov. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market.
      • Oct. final numbers are showing a seasonal weakening, and last year was a strong month in comparison. Overall, they aren’t too bad.
      • There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2 ½ times that.
    • New/Sold Ratio
      • This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.
    • New/Sold Ratio
      • In Oct., 33% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.
      • In Nov., early numbers point to 12% (1:8), but I expect to see that upgrade to 30% for the final numbers.
    • New/Sold Ratio
    • Conclusion
      • The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.
      • This number tops around 67%
      • Anything under 33% is very weak.
      • I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.
    • Average Sales Price
      • Oct. - $210,197 Down 7.3% from October 2007
      • Nov. - $222,709 Down 1.1% from November 2007
      • The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005.
    • Average Sales Price
      • Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.
      • This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.
    • List Price/Sales Price Ratio
      • October – 94.77%
      • November – 93.83%
      • Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.
      • Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.
    • Conclusion
      • List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.
      • It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.
      • The indications are also very general.
    • Overall Conclusion
      • I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, but the numbers are blah. Oct. is looking mixed. The biggest problem is that there was an unusually high number of failures from pendings in Sept. to sales in October.
      • Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom.
      • September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year.
    • Overall Conclusions
      • I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring.
      • There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.
      • Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.
    • Overall Conclusions
      • I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.
      • Last year at this time we were seeing the effects of the Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown… so oddly, we are going up against weird numbers. October was very strong compared to surrounding data.
      • Aside from October, I think we will look strong against last years numbers.