Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report November September-October 2008

September Numbers - Updated 2001 New Listings 674 Sold Listings 744 Listings Pending Average 85 Days on Market for Sold Listings

2001 New Listings

674 Sold Listings

744 Listings Pending

Average 85 Days on Market for Sold Listings

August Numbers - Updated *Listings Pending may have closed in August, may have closed in September, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

*Listings Pending may have closed in August, may have closed in September, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

October Numbers - Preliminary 1674 New Listings 355 Sold Listings 545 Listings Pending Average 83 Days on Market for Sold Listings

1674 New Listings

355 Sold Listings

545 Listings Pending

Average 83 Days on Market for Sold Listings

October Numbers - Preliminary *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 600 closed sales for August.

*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 600 closed sales for August.

Days on Market (DoM)

Conclusions Final for September is 85. For October I was looking for the 80s… preliminary is 83 days. That is good. I would like to see a continued drop for November. Strength would be in the low 80s.

Final for September is 85.

For October I was looking for the 80s… preliminary is 83 days. That is good.

I would like to see a continued drop for November. Strength would be in the low 80s.

New, Pending & Sold Listings

Conclusions I was looking for September Solds to come in around 700 and it was 674. I was looking to be around 1750 for Sept, and came in at 2000. That is just too many new listings for the market to absorb. We need to gut under 1600 in November. There are still too many listings.

I was looking for September Solds to come in around 700 and it was 674.

I was looking to be around 1750 for Sept, and came in at 2000. That is just too many new listings for the market to absorb.

We need to gut under 1600 in November. There are still too many listings.

September Absorption Rates 9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 14.6 months inventory 6 month average: 13.2 months inventory 3 month average: 13.4 months inventory

9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 14.6 months inventory

6 month average: 13.2 months inventory

3 month average: 13.4 months inventory

Oct. Absorption Rates 9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 14.6 months inventory 6 month average: 13.4 months inventory 3 month average: 15.4 months inventory

9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 14.6 months inventory

6 month average: 13.4 months inventory

3 month average: 15.4 months inventory

Conclusions Oct. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market. We are up against a very weak month last year. Sept. final numbers are showing a seasonal strengthening. If the final numbers for October. come in around 700 sales (still a stretch), that would be excellent strength. There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced.

Oct. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market. We are up against a very weak month last year.

Sept. final numbers are showing a seasonal strengthening. If the final numbers for October. come in around 700 sales (still a stretch), that would be excellent strength.

There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced.

New/Sold Ratio This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

New/Sold Ratio In Sept., 34% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. In Oct., early numbers point to 21% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 36% for the final numbers.

In Sept., 34% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.

In Oct., early numbers point to 21% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 36% for the final numbers.

New/Sold Ratio

Conclusion The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. This number tops around 67% Anything under 33% is very weak. The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.

The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.

This number tops around 67%

Anything under 33% is very weak.

The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.

Average Sales Price Sept. - $199,567 Down 13.0% from September 2007 Oct. - $208,223 Down 8.2% from October 2007 The September numbers (which did adjust down) show an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005.

Sept. - $199,567 Down 13.0% from September 2007

Oct. - $208,223 Down 8.2% from October 2007

The September numbers (which did adjust down) show an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005.

Average Sales Price Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

List Price/Sales Price Ratio September – 95.67% October – 95.24% Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months. Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.

September – 95.67%

October – 95.24%

Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.

Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.

Conclusion List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. The indications are also very general.

List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.

It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.

The indications are also very general.

Overall Conclusion While I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, the numbers are blah. Oct. prelims are looking mixed. Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom. September being up in sales is important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year.

While I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, the numbers are blah. Oct. prelims are looking mixed.

Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom.

September being up in sales is important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year.

Overall Conclusions I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet.

There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

Overall Conclusions I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. Last year at this time we were seeing the effects of the Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown… so oddly, we are going up against weird numbers. I think we will look strong against last years numbers.

I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.

Last year at this time we were seeing the effects of the Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown… so oddly, we are going up against weird numbers.

I think we will look strong against last years numbers.