Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report November September-October 2008
September Numbers - Updated <ul><li>2001 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>674 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>744 Listings P...
August Numbers - Updated <ul><li>*Listings Pending may have closed in August, may have closed in September, may close in s...
October Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>1674 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>355 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>545 Listings...
October Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings te...
Days on Market (DoM)
Conclusions <ul><li>Final for September is 85.  </li></ul><ul><li>For October I was looking for the 80s… preliminary is 83...
New, Pending & Sold Listings
Conclusions <ul><li>I was looking for September Solds to come in around 700 and it was 674.  </li></ul><ul><li>I was looki...
September Absorption Rates <ul><li>9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged...
Oct. Absorption Rates <ul><li>9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept., and sales averaged over ...
Conclusions <ul><li>Oct. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market.  We...
New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month.  It is useful to sellers in d...
New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>In Sept., 34% as many homes sold as were listed during the month.  This means that on average, for ...
New/Sold Ratio
Conclusion <ul><li>The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. </li></ul><ul><li>This...
Average Sales Price <ul><li>Sept. - $199,567 Down 13.0% from September 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Oct. - $208,223 Down 8.2% fr...
Average Sales Price <ul><li>Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular...
List Price/Sales Price Ratio <ul><li>September – 95.67% </li></ul><ul><li>October – 95.24% </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last...
Conclusion <ul><li>List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.  </li></ul><ul><li>It also shows whether Selle...
Overall Conclusion <ul><li>While I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, the numbers are blah.  Oct. ...
Overall Conclusions <ul><li>I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. </li></ul><ul><li>There are some great deals, an...
Overall Conclusions <ul><li>I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly...
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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 11 08

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Transcript of "Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 11 08"

  1. 1. Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report November September-October 2008
  2. 2. September Numbers - Updated <ul><li>2001 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>674 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>744 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 85 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  3. 3. August Numbers - Updated <ul><li>*Listings Pending may have closed in August, may have closed in September, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings. </li></ul>
  4. 4. October Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>1674 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>355 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>545 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 83 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  5. 5. October Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 600 closed sales for August. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Days on Market (DoM)
  7. 7. Conclusions <ul><li>Final for September is 85. </li></ul><ul><li>For October I was looking for the 80s… preliminary is 83 days. That is good. </li></ul><ul><li>I would like to see a continued drop for November. Strength would be in the low 80s. </li></ul>
  8. 8. New, Pending & Sold Listings
  9. 9. Conclusions <ul><li>I was looking for September Solds to come in around 700 and it was 674. </li></ul><ul><li>I was looking to be around 1750 for Sept, and came in at 2000. That is just too many new listings for the market to absorb. </li></ul><ul><li>We need to gut under 1600 in November. There are still too many listings. </li></ul>
  10. 10. September Absorption Rates <ul><li>9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 14.6 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 13.2 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 13.4 months inventory </li></ul>
  11. 11. Oct. Absorption Rates <ul><li>9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 14.6 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 13.4 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 15.4 months inventory </li></ul>
  12. 12. Conclusions <ul><li>Oct. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market. We are up against a very weak month last year. </li></ul><ul><li>Sept. final numbers are showing a seasonal strengthening. If the final numbers for October. come in around 700 sales (still a stretch), that would be excellent strength. </li></ul><ul><li>There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. </li></ul>
  13. 13. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy. </li></ul>
  14. 14. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>In Sept., 34% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. </li></ul><ul><li>In Oct., early numbers point to 21% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 36% for the final numbers. </li></ul>
  15. 15. New/Sold Ratio
  16. 16. Conclusion <ul><li>The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. </li></ul><ul><li>This number tops around 67% </li></ul><ul><li>Anything under 33% is very weak. </li></ul><ul><li>The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Sept. - $199,567 Down 13.0% from September 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Oct. - $208,223 Down 8.2% from October 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>The September numbers (which did adjust down) show an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. </li></ul><ul><li>This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense. </li></ul>
  19. 19. List Price/Sales Price Ratio <ul><li>September – 95.67% </li></ul><ul><li>October – 95.24% </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months. </li></ul><ul><li>Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Conclusion <ul><li>List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. </li></ul><ul><li>It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. </li></ul><ul><li>The indications are also very general. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Overall Conclusion <ul><li>While I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, the numbers are blah. Oct. prelims are looking mixed. </li></ul><ul><li>Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom. </li></ul><ul><li>September being up in sales is important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year. </li></ul>
  22. 22. Overall Conclusions <ul><li>I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. </li></ul><ul><li>There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. </li></ul><ul><li>Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy. </li></ul>
  23. 23. Overall Conclusions <ul><li>I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>Last year at this time we were seeing the effects of the Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown… so oddly, we are going up against weird numbers. </li></ul><ul><li>I think we will look strong against last years numbers. </li></ul>

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