Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report October August-September 2008

August Numbers - Updated 1928 New Listings 678 Sold Listings 725 Listings Pending Average 95 Days on Market for Sold Listings

1928 New Listings

678 Sold Listings

725 Listings Pending

Average 95 Days on Market for Sold Listings

August Numbers - Updated *Listings Pending may have closed in July, may have closed in August, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

*Listings Pending may have closed in July, may have closed in August, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

Sept. Numbers - Preliminary 1991 New Listings 380 Sold Listings 621 Listings Pending Average 92 Days on Market for Sold Listings

1991 New Listings

380 Sold Listings

621 Listings Pending

Average 92 Days on Market for Sold Listings

August Numbers - Preliminary *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 600 closed sales for August.

*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 600 closed sales for August.

Days on Market (DoM)

Conclusions Final for August is 95. For Sept. I was looking for low 90s… preliminary is 92 days. That is good. I would like to see a continued drop for October. Strength would be in the 80s.

Final for August is 95.

For Sept. I was looking for low 90s… preliminary is 92 days. That is good.

I would like to see a continued drop for October. Strength would be in the 80s.

New, Pending & Sold Listings

Conclusions I was looking for August Solds to come in around 650 and it was 678. Last month I was looking for New Listings under 1900, and the finals are 1925. I liked the drop, but it wasn’t enough. I was looking to be around 1750 for Sept, and came in at almost 2000 (prelim). That is just too many new listings for the market to absorb.

I was looking for August Solds to come in around 650 and it was 678.

Last month I was looking for New Listings under 1900, and the finals are 1925. I liked the drop, but it wasn’t enough.

I was looking to be around 1750 for Sept, and came in at almost 2000 (prelim). That is just too many new listings for the market to absorb.

August Absorption Rates 9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 15.2 months inventory 6 month average: 14.0 months inventory 3 month average: 13.3 months inventory

9534 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of August, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 15.2 months inventory

6 month average: 14.0 months inventory

3 month average: 13.3 months inventory

Sept. Absorption Rates 9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. 12 month average: 15.2 months inventory 6 month average: 14.2 months inventory 3 month average: 15.6 months inventory

9187 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

12 month average: 15.2 months inventory

6 month average: 14.2 months inventory

3 month average: 15.6 months inventory

Conclusions Sept. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market. August final numbers are showing a seasonal strengthening. If the final numbers for Sept. come in around 700 sales (a stretch), that would be good strength. There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced.

Sept. numbers aren’t final, but they are probably going to show a seasonal weakening of the market.

August final numbers are showing a seasonal strengthening. If the final numbers for Sept. come in around 700 sales (a stretch), that would be good strength.

There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced.

New/Sold Ratio This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

New/Sold Ratio In August, 35% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. In Sept., early numbers point to 19% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 33% for the final numbers.

In August, 35% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.

In Sept., early numbers point to 19% (1:5), but I expect to see that upgrade to 33% for the final numbers.

New/Sold Ratio

Conclusion The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. This number tops around 67% Anything under 33% is very weak. The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.

The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.

This number tops around 67%

Anything under 33% is very weak.

The latest month is always suspect, as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.

Average Sales Price August - $218,074 Down 11.6% from August 2007 Sept. - $205,056 Down 10.6% from Sept. 2007

August - $218,074 Down 11.6% from August 2007

Sept. - $205,056 Down 10.6% from Sept. 2007

Average Sales Price Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

List Price/Sales Price Ratio August – 95.02% September – 95.58% Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months. Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.

August – 95.02%

September – 95.58%

Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List, although there have been some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.

Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market.

Conclusion List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. The indications are also very general.

List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.

It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.

The indications are also very general.

Overall Conclusion While I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, the numbers are blah. Sept. prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like. Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom.

While I always expect to see seasonal slowdowns this time of year, the numbers are blah. Sept. prelims are looking a little weaker than I’d like.

Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom.

Overall Conclusions I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet.

There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

Overall Conclusions I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. Last year at this time we were seeing the effects of the Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown… so oddly, we are going up against weird numbers. I think we will look strong against last years numbers.

I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.

Last year at this time we were seeing the effects of the Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown… so oddly, we are going up against weird numbers.

I think we will look strong against last years numbers.