Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09

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Market Report for Gwinnett County, GA real estate sales, January 2009, covering market activity in November and December 2008.

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Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09

  1. 1. Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report January November-December 2008
  2. 2. November Numbers - Updated <ul><li>1444 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>376 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>466 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 87 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  3. 3. November Numbers - Updated <ul><li>*Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings. </li></ul>
  4. 4. December Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>1280 New Listings </li></ul><ul><li>317 Sold Listings </li></ul><ul><li>515 Listings Pending </li></ul><ul><li>Average 89 Days on Market for Sold Listings </li></ul>
  5. 5. December Numbers - Preliminary <ul><li>*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 400 closed sales for December. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Days on Market (DoM)
  7. 7. Conclusions <ul><li>Final for November is 87. </li></ul><ul><li>I was looking for the low 80s… preliminary was 93 days. 87 wasn’t great, but not bad </li></ul><ul><li>For December, preliminary is 89. </li></ul><ul><li>I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 through January. </li></ul>
  8. 8. New, Pending & Sold Listings
  9. 9. Conclusions <ul><li>I wanted to see listings for Dec come in under 1300,we’re at 1280 so far. </li></ul><ul><li>For November I wanted to be under 1600, and came in at 1444. Getting rid of stale inventory is a key factor. </li></ul><ul><li>I’m surprised by the increase in Pendings. </li></ul><ul><li>I’m disappointed by Nov final Sales. </li></ul>
  10. 10. November Absorption Rates <ul><li>8521 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 14.2 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 13.5 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 15.7 months inventory </li></ul>
  11. 11. Dec. Absorption Rates <ul><li>7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Oct., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods. </li></ul><ul><li>12 month average: 13.3 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>6 month average: 13.9 months inventory </li></ul><ul><li>3 month average: 18.2 months inventory </li></ul>
  12. 12. Conclusions <ul><li>Nov. final numbers showed sales down 36% from 2007. Also important, more than 33% of the Pendings from Oct. failed to close. </li></ul><ul><li>December preliminary numbers show a continued seasonal weakening. Overall, they may not be too bad. We’ll have to see… </li></ul><ul><li>There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that. </li></ul>
  13. 13. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy. </li></ul>
  14. 14. New/Sold Ratio <ul><li>In Nov., 26% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 4 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. I thought we would get to 30%. </li></ul><ul><li>In Dec., early numbers point to 25% (1:4), but I expect to see that upgrade to 30% for the final numbers. </li></ul>
  15. 15. New/Sold Ratio
  16. 16. Conclusion <ul><li>The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers. </li></ul><ul><li>This number tops around 67% </li></ul><ul><li>Anything under 33% is very weak. </li></ul><ul><li>I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Nov. - $204,644 Down 9.1% from November 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Dec. - $215,090 Down 1.1% from December 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back. </li></ul>
  18. 18. Average Sales Price <ul><li>Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges. </li></ul><ul><li>This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense. </li></ul>
  19. 19. List Price/Sales Price Ratio <ul><li>November – 93.74% </li></ul><ul><li>December – 92.68% </li></ul><ul><li>Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08. </li></ul><ul><li>Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.” </li></ul>
  20. 20. Conclusion <ul><li>List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. </li></ul><ul><li>It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing. </li></ul><ul><li>The indications are also very general. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Overall Conclusion <ul><li>I’m actually surprised a little by December Pendings. They came in higher than I expected. </li></ul><ul><li>Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago. </li></ul><ul><li>Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom. </li></ul>
  22. 22. Overall Conclusions <ul><li>September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year. </li></ul><ul><li>I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring. </li></ul><ul><li>There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals. </li></ul><ul><li>Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy. </li></ul>
  23. 23. Overall Conclusions <ul><li>I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. </li></ul><ul><li>March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. </li></ul><ul><li>I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here. </li></ul>

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