Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09

Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report January November-December 2008

November Numbers - Updated
1444 New Listings
376 Sold Listings
466 Listings Pending
Average 87 Days on Market for Sold Listings

November Numbers - Updated
*Listings Pending may have closed in November, may have closed in December, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.

December Numbers - Preliminary
1280 New Listings
317 Sold Listings
515 Listings Pending
Average 89 Days on Market for Sold Listings

December Numbers - Preliminary
*While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 400 closed sales for December.

Days on Market (DoM)

Conclusions
Final for November is 87.
I was looking for the low 80s… preliminary was 93 days. 87 wasn’t great, but not bad
For December, preliminary is 89.
I would really like to see numbers stay under 90 through January.

New, Pending & Sold Listings

Conclusions
I wanted to see listings for Dec come in under 1300,we’re at 1280 so far.
For November I wanted to be under 1600, and came in at 1444. Getting rid of stale inventory is a key factor.
I’m surprised by the increase in Pendings.
I’m disappointed by Nov final Sales.

November Absorption Rates
8521 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Sept, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.
12 month average: 14.2 months inventory

Dec. Absorption Rates
7700 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Oct., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

Conclusions
Nov. final numbers showed sales down 36% from 2007. Also important, more than 33% of the Pendings from Oct. failed to close.
December preliminary numbers show a continued seasonal weakening. Overall, they may not be too bad. We’ll have to see…
There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.

New/Sold Ratio
This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.

New/Sold Ratio
In Nov., 26% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 4 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold. I thought we would get to 30%.
In Dec., early numbers point to 25% (1:4), but I expect to see that upgrade to 30% for the final numbers.

New/Sold Ratio

Conclusion
The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.
This number tops around 67%
Anything under 33% is very weak.
I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.

Average Sales Price
Nov. - $204,644 Down 9.1% from November 2007
Dec. - $215,090 Down 1.1% from December 2007
The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back.

Average Sales Price
Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular ranges.
This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.

List Price/Sales Price Ratio
November – 93.74%
December – 92.68%
Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08.
Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”

Conclusion
List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength.
It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.
The indications are also very general.

Overall Conclusion
I’m actually surprised a little by December Pendings. They came in higher than I expected.
Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago.
Last year I was calling for a 2 nd Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but we need to see how Fall goes to know if there is recovery or just skipping along a bottom.

Overall Conclusions
September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was a weak month last year.
I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until next spring.
There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.
Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.

Overall Conclusions
I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.
I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table.
March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season.
I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.

Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09

by LaneBailey on Jan 08, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

2 Embeds 10

Statistics

Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 1 09 — Presentation Transcript

http://activerain.com	8
http://lanebailey.com	2