The 2011 tohoku, japan quake and tsunami

757 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
757
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

The 2011 tohoku, japan quake and tsunami

  1. 1. The 2011 Tohoku, Japan Quake and Tsunami:<br />A Financial Impact Assessment<br />
  2. 2. Exploit statistics and mathematics to set a normalizedviewpoint and understand the extent of thisevent<br />Financial impact<br />Realeconomic impact<br />
  3. 3. Understanding the scale of the event<br />Calculate the daily standard deviation of NIKKEI over the previous 2 years<br />Standard deviation express how much variation or "dispersion" there is from the average (σ)<br />
  4. 4. An 8σearthquake<br />The following week’s normalized log movements, as multiples of σ results in a -8σ<br />NIKKEI indexcollapsed by 8 times the averagedailyfluctiation<br />
  5. 5. An 8σearthquake<br />The following week’s normalized log movements, as multiples of σ results in a -8σ<br />NIKKEI indexcollapsed by 8 times the averagedailyfluctiation<br />BUT WHAT IT REALLY MEANS?<br />
  6. 6. How much 8σis?<br />Kobe earthquake, 1995 -5σ<br />
  7. 7. How much 8σis?<br />Kobe earthquake, 1995 -5σ<br />9/11, 2001 (DJIA) -6σ<br />
  8. 8. How much 8σis?<br />Kobe earthquake, 1995 -5σ<br />9/11, 2001 (DJIA) -6σ<br />Leheman default, 2008 (DJIA) -8σ<br />
  9. 9. The Yen surge<br />In onemonth<br />1 Euro = 122 Yen 1 Euro = 114 Yen<br />-6,5%<br />
  10. 10. The Yen surge<br />Reasons:<br />Fund repatriation in preparation for reconstruction<br />Conseguences:<br />Might help rawmaterial import<br />Buthinder export<br />Regionalconsequences:<br />About a quarter of East Asia’s long-term debt is denominated in Yen, that means 1/4Billion<br />
  11. 11. The Yen surge<br />Regionalconsequences:<br />About a quarter of East Asia’s long-term debt is denominated in Yen<br />
  12. 12. RealEconomic Impact<br />typically, the negative effects of a natural disaster are mostly concentrated in the region of the disaster<br />In the case of Japan’s disaster, however, the negative impact is greater because of the combination of the earthquake and tsunami…<br />
  13. 13. RealEconomic Impact: infrastructures<br />Damages:<br /><ul><li>243,000 homes
  14. 14. 5,686 buildings
  15. 15. Port facilities,
  16. 16. Sensitive electronic equipment,
  17. 17. 2,126 roads,
  18. 18. 56 bridges</li></ul>The government estimates the material damage alone could top $300bn (£181bn), making it by far the world's costliest natural disaster.<br />
  19. 19. RealEconomic Impact: sectors<br />agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors.<br />electric components and IT equipment<br />Automotive<br />
  20. 20. Japan’s principal food commodities include fish and seafood, rice, vegetables, fruits and nuts, and dairy and poultry products ->  increase imports <br />Many assembly companies, such as automotive, computers and consumer electronics, have been forced to pause their operations<br />Shortages of electricity and parts have damaged factories in other countries.<br />RealEconomic Impact: consequences<br />
  21. 21. RealEconomic Impact: Forecast<br />The government is likely to submit to parliament a €35bn extra budget to remove debris and build temporary housing.<br />GDP will expand 0.8% this year, down sharply from the 1.7% growth previously forecast. <br /><ul><li>The economy will expand GDP to 2.3% in 2012, faster than previous estimates for 1.3% growth</li></li></ul><li>RealEconomic Impact: Forecast<br />The immediate impact of the disaster is likely to be large, extending beyond the areas devastated by the earthquake and tsunami. The experience of past disasters in Japan and other developed countries suggests that the negative short-term impact on economic output will be followed by a rebound as reconstruction spending picks up.<br />

×