Upcoming SlideShare
×

# The 2011 tohoku, japan quake and tsunami

757 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
• Full Name
Comment goes here.

Are you sure you want to Yes No
• Be the first to comment

Views
Total views
757
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
10
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

### The 2011 tohoku, japan quake and tsunami

1. 1. The 2011 Tohoku, Japan Quake and Tsunami:<br />A Financial Impact Assessment<br />
2. 2. Exploit statistics and mathematics to set a normalizedviewpoint and understand the extent of thisevent<br />Financial impact<br />Realeconomic impact<br />
3. 3. Understanding the scale of the event<br />Calculate the daily standard deviation of NIKKEI over the previous 2 years<br />Standard deviation express how much variation or "dispersion" there is from the average (σ)<br />
4. 4. An 8σearthquake<br />The following week’s normalized log movements, as multiples of σ results in a -8σ<br />NIKKEI indexcollapsed by 8 times the averagedailyfluctiation<br />
5. 5. An 8σearthquake<br />The following week’s normalized log movements, as multiples of σ results in a -8σ<br />NIKKEI indexcollapsed by 8 times the averagedailyfluctiation<br />BUT WHAT IT REALLY MEANS?<br />
6. 6. How much 8σis?<br />Kobe earthquake, 1995 -5σ<br />
7. 7. How much 8σis?<br />Kobe earthquake, 1995 -5σ<br />9/11, 2001 (DJIA) -6σ<br />
8. 8. How much 8σis?<br />Kobe earthquake, 1995 -5σ<br />9/11, 2001 (DJIA) -6σ<br />Leheman default, 2008 (DJIA) -8σ<br />
9. 9. The Yen surge<br />In onemonth<br />1 Euro = 122 Yen 1 Euro = 114 Yen<br />-6,5%<br />
10. 10. The Yen surge<br />Reasons:<br />Fund repatriation in preparation for reconstruction<br />Conseguences:<br />Might help rawmaterial import<br />Buthinder export<br />Regionalconsequences:<br />About a quarter of East Asia’s long-term debt is denominated in Yen, that means 1/4Billion<br />
11. 11. The Yen surge<br />Regionalconsequences:<br />About a quarter of East Asia’s long-term debt is denominated in Yen<br />
12. 12. RealEconomic Impact<br />typically, the negative effects of a natural disaster are mostly concentrated in the region of the disaster<br />In the case of Japan’s disaster, however, the negative impact is greater because of the combination of the earthquake and tsunami…<br />
13. 13. RealEconomic Impact: infrastructures<br />Damages:<br /><ul><li>243,000 homes
14. 14. 5,686 buildings
15. 15. Port facilities,
16. 16. Sensitive electronic equipment,