LTC, Annual Forum,Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Ty Schuiling
Perspectives on SB 375 Third Annual Leonard Transportation Center Forum Ty Schuiling, SANBAG May 22, 2009
Wall Street Journal: Building Permits in City CoresCity centers are undergoing a renaissance of sorts, with apartment buildings, condos, andtownhouses sprouting in many downtowns across the country. Commutes and shopping tripsare usually shorter for city dwellers than for their suburban counterparts. The map below tracksthe percentage-point change in the share of residential building permits in the cores of majormetropolitan areas from the early ‘90s to 2007.Source: US Environmental Protection Agency
Urban San Bernardino Valley, TOD Opportunities per LRTP
Freight Movement Air Quality (PM, Air Toxics, Ozone) Transportation (Moving People) Climate ChangeEnergy Water (Supply/Quality) Land Use (Urban Form) Jobs/ Economy Housing Education/ Income
Freight Movement Air Quality (PM, Air Toxics, Ozone) Transportation (Moving People) Climate ChangeEnergy Water (Supply/Quality) Land Use(Urban Form) Jobs/ Economy Housing Education
Freight Movement Air Quality (PM, Air Toxics, Ozone) Transportation (Moving People) Climate ChangeEnergy Water (Supply/Quality) Land Use (Urban Form) Jobs/ Economy HousingSB 375 (Supply/Affordability) Education
% VMT Reduction by Individual Measures, 10 yr, 20 yr, 30 yr, 40 yr From Rodier (2008), UC Berkeley for the 2009 TRB
EMISSION REDUCTION STRATEGIES for transportation sourcesMore effective Clean technologies (EVs, plug-in hybrids) Pricing (increased gas tax, VMT fees, congestion pricing) Land use and transit InfrastructureLess effective Note: Less effective strategies (e.g. land use and transit) can be more effective if combined with pricing and clean technologies
From SCAQMD letter to I-710 TAC dated February 17, 2009:“[The Basin] must reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by approximately two-thirds beyond the levels that will result from all the stringent rules adopted todate by federal, state and local agencies.This “black box” of needed but unidentified control measures includes over200 tons of Nox reductions, an amount that exceeds the region’s entirefederal ozone standard “carrying capacity” [of 114 tons]The …Air Quality Management Plan thus identifies non-combustion zero-emission transport technologies as a potential means to fill the black box.”To achieve federal clean air standards, this region has little choice but toreduce the very GHG emissions targeted by SB 375 to near-zero. Cleanvehicle penetration far beyond levels assumed by the ARB have beenidentified as the most likely – perhaps only - way to do it.
2004 Chevrolet 2004 Toyota Percent Savings Malibu Prius Reduction EPA Emission Standard Tier 2 Bin 8 SULEV II Non-Methane Organic Gases (grams) 2 1,527 122 1,405 92% Carbon Monoxide (grams) 2 51,303 12,215 39,088 76% Nitrogen Oxides (grams)2 2,443 244 2,199 90% Particulate Matter (grams)2 244 122 122 50% Carbon Dioxide (lbs)3 10,470 5,330 5,140 49% EPA Fuel Economy (city/hwy)4 24/34 60/51 EPA Fuel Economy (combined)5 28 55 27 Fuel Consumed Annually (gallons) 436 222 214 49%Notes1. Based on 12,215 annual mileage.2. Data obtained from Smog Forming Pollutants Chart, EPA Green Vehicle Guide: www.epa.gov/autoemissions/0-10chart.htm3. Calculated using (12,215 miles / Combined MPG) x (24 pounds CO2/gallon). Includes upstream CO2 emissions and end-user CO2emissions. David Friedman, Senior Engineer, Union of Concerned Scientists. Personal communication 7/25/2003.4. Fuel economy rating for automatic/continuously variable transmission.5. Assumes 55% city driving and 45% highway driving.Emission Standard Key: Vehicles meeting the Federal Tier 2 Bin 8 standard produce: 4.2 g/mi of CO, 0.02 g/mi of particulate matter, 0.2 g/miof NOx, and 0.125 g/mi of non-methane organic gases. Vehicles meeting California’s SULEV II (Super Ultra Low Emissions Vehicle) standardproduce: 1.0 g/mi of CO, 0.01 g/mi of particulate matter, 0.02 g/mi of NOx, and 0.01 g/mi of non-methane organic gases.
LAND USE STRATEGIES for sustainable developmentMore effective Rationalize local government finance (defiscalization) Enhance market recognition of demographic trends and expected costs of transportation, energy, water… Modify land use plansLess effective
Share of Growth 2000-2040US HH Type Growth Share HH Growth 54MWith children 7M 14%Without children 47M 86%Single/Other* 16M 30%*New single-person HHs double new HHs with children.Households are ChangingHousehold Type 1960 2005 2040HH with Children 48% 32% 26%HH without Children 52% 68% 74%Single/Other HH 13% 31% 34%Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor & Director ofMetropolitan Research, University of Utah
Professor Arthur Nelson, Director of MetropolitanResearch at the University of Utah:The U.S. will have a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes—that’s houses built on a sixth of an acre ormore—by 2025.Thats roughly 40 percent of the large-lot houses inexistence today. Our housing policy has to beamended to reflect our changing preferences.
Freight Movement Air Quality (PM, Air Toxics, Ozone) Transportation (Moving People) Climate ChangeEnergy Water (Supply/Quality) Land Use (Urban Form) Jobs/ Economy Housing (Supply/Affordability) Education
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