SB 375Conceptual Land Use ScenarioLeonard Transportation Center Forum           Hasan Ikhrata         Executive Director
CA Climate Change LegislationThe Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Assembly Bill 32
Greenhouse Gas EmissionsEmissions byare the largest single source of greenhousePassenger vehicles Sectorgas emissions in C...
California AB 32 Greenhouse GasReduction Estimates by Measure
Where We Are Headed• Our existing policies need to be adjusted in order to meet  the target and reduce GHGs• Small changes...
How Senate Bill 375 Addresses GHG Reductions• Requires regional Sustainable  Communities Strategy (SCS)                   ...
COMPACT                                           Land Use Planning:       DEVELOPMENT                                    ...
Anticipating the Target•   Statewide reduction    5 million metric tons through    land use and transportation    planning...
Reaching the TargetHow far can land use planning takeus as a region toward meetingthe target?• How can the region absorb  ...
Developing the Conceptual Land Use ScenarioResearch and Analysis• Research effort to test ideas, not a proposed SCS• Start...
2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast• Developed by the region for the region• Used to compare alternative land use strategies ...
2008 RTP Adopted Growth ForecastStrengths and Weaknesses• Followed local input• Reflected many local initiatives• Transpor...
Envision Scenario• Part of 2008 RTP research• Focused on regional jobs-housing balance• Did not follow county or city fore...
Envision ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses•   Built upon current progressive planning efforts•   Improved access to jobs ac...
Conceptual Land Use ScenarioMethodology• Considered the lessons learned from the 2008 RTP Adopted  Growth Forecast and Env...
Started with the regional 2020transportation network
Focused growth in highintensity areas basedon 2006 General Plandesignations as well assome vacant lowerdensity areas
Avoided areas of stability:open space and establishedresidential areas
Initially, focused growtharound regional rail andrapid bus transit (BRT) andexisting urban centers
Established top prioritygrowth areas:rail and BRT transit areaswith both land capacityand planned capacity(high intensity ...
We expanded the toppriority areassignificantly by includinglocal bus transit
Adding local transit quadrupled the top priority areas from                                z123,000 acres to 534,000 acres...
Conceptual Land Use Scenario• Maintains city and county forecasts for housing and jobs• Focuses growth around transit corr...
Conceptual Land Use ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses• Results in a reduction of 1.5 million tons of CO2• The modeling and ...
SCAG Region2008 RTP Adopted Forecast                                         I-15           I-5 Ventura                   ...
SCAG RegionConceptual Land Use Scenario                                          I-15            I-5  Ventura             ...
Los Angeles County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast                I-5                            Burbank                I-405    ...
Los Angeles CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario                 I-5                             Burbank                 I-4...
Riverside County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast                  I-15    Victorville         San BernardinoCorona               ...
Riverside CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario                  I-15    Victorville         San BernardinoCorona            ...
Riverside County – Hemet2008 RTP Adopted Forecast            State Highway 79                               Hemet         ...
Riverside County – HemetConceptual Land Use Scenario            State Highway 79                               Hemet      ...
Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectHemet
San Bernardino County2008 Adopted RTP Forecast                           Barstow             Victorville            I-15  ...
San Bernardino CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario                           Barstow             Victorville            I-1...
San Bernardino County – Ontario2008 Adopted RTP Forecast                                           NORTH   San Bernardino ...
San Bernardino County – OntarioConceptual Land Use Scenario                                           NORTH   San Bernardi...
Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectOntario
Conceptual LandUse ScenarioRegional Transportation IndicatorsGHGREDUCTION           1.5 MMTVMTREDUCTION                   ...
Conceptual Land Use Scenario PerformanceDifferent Control Assumptions                              -0.9   -0.8            ...
Lessons Learned                      • A balance of nearby jobs and                        housing is importantPEDESTRIAN-...
This Conceptual Land UseScenario is Not a Proposal• Pursued this as a research project• Everything will be available onlin...
SB 375 Timeline
Next Steps•   Work sessions•   Sharing data and resources•   Review by county and city•   Communication and outreach•   Pu...
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LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata

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Hasan Ikhrata;Executive Director, Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)

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LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata

  1. 1. SB 375Conceptual Land Use ScenarioLeonard Transportation Center Forum Hasan Ikhrata Executive Director
  2. 2. CA Climate Change LegislationThe Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Assembly Bill 32
  3. 3. Greenhouse Gas EmissionsEmissions byare the largest single source of greenhousePassenger vehicles Sectorgas emissions in California
  4. 4. California AB 32 Greenhouse GasReduction Estimates by Measure
  5. 5. Where We Are Headed• Our existing policies need to be adjusted in order to meet the target and reduce GHGs• Small changes have big impacts CO2 Emissions
  6. 6. How Senate Bill 375 Addresses GHG Reductions• Requires regional Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) 1• Includes these three related approaches – Land use planning – Transportation policies – Transportation investments 3 2
  7. 7. COMPACT Land Use Planning: DEVELOPMENT What New Strategies Might Work? • Focus growth around transit areas • Integrate housing and jobs closer to one another • Increase the diversity of housing choices region wide • Reinvestment in existing communities PEOPLE DRIVE • Ensure local capacity for mixed 20-40% LESS use centers of activitySOURCE: GROWING COOLER: EVIDENCE ON URBAN DEVELOPMENTAND CLIMATE CHANGE, URBAN LAND INSTITUTE, REID EWING, ETAL. 2008
  8. 8. Anticipating the Target• Statewide reduction 5 million metric tons through land use and transportation planning by 2020• Estimated SCAG portion 2.5 million metric tons
  9. 9. Reaching the TargetHow far can land use planning takeus as a region toward meetingthe target?• How can the region absorb expected growth?• Need to research and test different land use and transportation planning strategies• Want to partner and collaborate with local governments, subregions, and county transportation commissions in the development of the SCS
  10. 10. Developing the Conceptual Land Use ScenarioResearch and Analysis• Research effort to test ideas, not a proposed SCS• Started with the adopted growth forecast from the 2008 RTP• Integrated 2008 RTP input and introduced new land use planning strategies• Evaluated scenarios with a transportation and land use model, then compared results against the 2008 Adopted RTP Forecast• Considered the strengths and weaknesses
  11. 11. 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast• Developed by the region for the region• Used to compare alternative land use strategies to reduce the regional GHG reduction target -2.5
  12. 12. 2008 RTP Adopted Growth ForecastStrengths and Weaknesses• Followed local input• Reflected many local initiatives• Transportation modeling resulted in the production of 94 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2020• Jobs/housing imbalance which leads to longer trips• Many separated land uses• Does not meet 2020 target
  13. 13. Envision Scenario• Part of 2008 RTP research• Focused on regional jobs-housing balance• Did not follow county or city forecasts -2.3 -2.5
  14. 14. Envision ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses• Built upon current progressive planning efforts• Improved access to jobs across the region• Significantly reduced carbon emissions• Achieved a 2.3 million metric ton reduction• Did not follow local plans in some areas – especially stable residential areas• Some parts of scenario probably not feasible• Not fully vetted during RTP
  15. 15. Conceptual Land Use ScenarioMethodology• Considered the lessons learned from the 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast and Envision Scenario• Maintained county level forecasts• Maintained city level growth forecasts within 10%• Focused growth around regional and local transit networks
  16. 16. Started with the regional 2020transportation network
  17. 17. Focused growth in highintensity areas basedon 2006 General Plandesignations as well assome vacant lowerdensity areas
  18. 18. Avoided areas of stability:open space and establishedresidential areas
  19. 19. Initially, focused growtharound regional rail andrapid bus transit (BRT) andexisting urban centers
  20. 20. Established top prioritygrowth areas:rail and BRT transit areaswith both land capacityand planned capacity(high intensity GeneralPlan designations)
  21. 21. We expanded the toppriority areassignificantly by includinglocal bus transit
  22. 22. Adding local transit quadrupled the top priority areas from z123,000 acres to 534,000 acres and reduced densities
  23. 23. Conceptual Land Use Scenario• Maintains city and county forecasts for housing and jobs• Focuses growth around transit corridors and stations• Focuses new development in areas with planned capacity -1.5 -2.3 -2.5
  24. 24. Conceptual Land Use ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses• Results in a reduction of 1.5 million tons of CO2• The modeling and research tells us that it is possible to significantly reduce GHG through land use strategies• Improved jobs to housing balance and distributed growth• Requires some new transportation investments• Requires additional TDM strategies• Modeling should take advantage of additional pedestrian and transit trips• Requires local and regional policy changes• Did not meet the 2.5 MMT target – 60% of the way
  25. 25. SCAG Region2008 RTP Adopted Forecast I-15 I-5 Ventura Ontario Brea I-10 Long Beach Hemet El Centro
  26. 26. SCAG RegionConceptual Land Use Scenario I-15 I-5 Ventura Ontario Brea I-10 Long Beach Hemet El Centro
  27. 27. Los Angeles County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast I-5 Burbank I-405 Los Angeles I-10 Santa Monica Brea Compton Long Beach
  28. 28. Los Angeles CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario I-5 Burbank I-405 Los Angeles I-10 Santa Monica Brea Compton Long Beach
  29. 29. Riverside County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast I-15 Victorville San BernardinoCorona I-10 Hemet Indio Temecula
  30. 30. Riverside CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario I-15 Victorville San BernardinoCorona I-10 Hemet Indio Temecula
  31. 31. Riverside County – Hemet2008 RTP Adopted Forecast State Highway 79 Hemet State Highway 74
  32. 32. Riverside County – HemetConceptual Land Use Scenario State Highway 79 Hemet State Highway 74
  33. 33. Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectHemet
  34. 34. San Bernardino County2008 Adopted RTP Forecast Barstow Victorville I-15 San Bernardino Twentynine Palms Ontario I-10 I-215
  35. 35. San Bernardino CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario Barstow Victorville I-15 San Bernardino Twentynine Palms Ontario I-10 I-215
  36. 36. San Bernardino County – Ontario2008 Adopted RTP Forecast NORTH San Bernardino Fwy Ontario Ontario Fwy
  37. 37. San Bernardino County – OntarioConceptual Land Use Scenario NORTH San Bernardino Fwy Ontario Ontario Fwy
  38. 38. Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectOntario
  39. 39. Conceptual LandUse ScenarioRegional Transportation IndicatorsGHGREDUCTION 1.5 MMTVMTREDUCTION 2.4%AVG TRIP LENGTHDECREASE 3.7%DAILY TRANSITBOARDING INCREASE 2.6%
  40. 40. Conceptual Land Use Scenario PerformanceDifferent Control Assumptions -0.9 -0.8 -1.5 -2.3 -2.5
  41. 41. Lessons Learned • A balance of nearby jobs and housing is importantPEDESTRIAN-ORIENTEDSTREETSCAPE • Growth around ALL transit is important • Mixed use centers and corridors and all kinds of transit are important • Walkable design is crucialMIXED USEDEVELOPMENT
  42. 42. This Conceptual Land UseScenario is Not a Proposal• Pursued this as a research project• Everything will be available online• Data and maps are available to subregions
  43. 43. SB 375 Timeline
  44. 44. Next Steps• Work sessions• Sharing data and resources• Review by county and city• Communication and outreach• Public workshops

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