LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata
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LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata

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Hasan Ikhrata;Executive Director, Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)

Hasan Ikhrata;Executive Director, Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)

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LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Hasan Ikhrata Presentation Transcript

  • SB 375Conceptual Land Use ScenarioLeonard Transportation Center Forum Hasan Ikhrata Executive Director
  • CA Climate Change LegislationThe Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: Assembly Bill 32
  • Greenhouse Gas EmissionsEmissions byare the largest single source of greenhousePassenger vehicles Sectorgas emissions in California
  • California AB 32 Greenhouse GasReduction Estimates by Measure
  • Where We Are Headed• Our existing policies need to be adjusted in order to meet the target and reduce GHGs• Small changes have big impacts CO2 Emissions
  • How Senate Bill 375 Addresses GHG Reductions• Requires regional Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) 1• Includes these three related approaches – Land use planning – Transportation policies – Transportation investments 3 2
  • COMPACT Land Use Planning: DEVELOPMENT What New Strategies Might Work? • Focus growth around transit areas • Integrate housing and jobs closer to one another • Increase the diversity of housing choices region wide • Reinvestment in existing communities PEOPLE DRIVE • Ensure local capacity for mixed 20-40% LESS use centers of activitySOURCE: GROWING COOLER: EVIDENCE ON URBAN DEVELOPMENTAND CLIMATE CHANGE, URBAN LAND INSTITUTE, REID EWING, ETAL. 2008
  • Anticipating the Target• Statewide reduction 5 million metric tons through land use and transportation planning by 2020• Estimated SCAG portion 2.5 million metric tons
  • Reaching the TargetHow far can land use planning takeus as a region toward meetingthe target?• How can the region absorb expected growth?• Need to research and test different land use and transportation planning strategies• Want to partner and collaborate with local governments, subregions, and county transportation commissions in the development of the SCS
  • Developing the Conceptual Land Use ScenarioResearch and Analysis• Research effort to test ideas, not a proposed SCS• Started with the adopted growth forecast from the 2008 RTP• Integrated 2008 RTP input and introduced new land use planning strategies• Evaluated scenarios with a transportation and land use model, then compared results against the 2008 Adopted RTP Forecast• Considered the strengths and weaknesses
  • 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast• Developed by the region for the region• Used to compare alternative land use strategies to reduce the regional GHG reduction target -2.5
  • 2008 RTP Adopted Growth ForecastStrengths and Weaknesses• Followed local input• Reflected many local initiatives• Transportation modeling resulted in the production of 94 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2020• Jobs/housing imbalance which leads to longer trips• Many separated land uses• Does not meet 2020 target
  • Envision Scenario• Part of 2008 RTP research• Focused on regional jobs-housing balance• Did not follow county or city forecasts -2.3 -2.5
  • Envision ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses• Built upon current progressive planning efforts• Improved access to jobs across the region• Significantly reduced carbon emissions• Achieved a 2.3 million metric ton reduction• Did not follow local plans in some areas – especially stable residential areas• Some parts of scenario probably not feasible• Not fully vetted during RTP
  • Conceptual Land Use ScenarioMethodology• Considered the lessons learned from the 2008 RTP Adopted Growth Forecast and Envision Scenario• Maintained county level forecasts• Maintained city level growth forecasts within 10%• Focused growth around regional and local transit networks
  • Started with the regional 2020transportation network
  • Focused growth in highintensity areas basedon 2006 General Plandesignations as well assome vacant lowerdensity areas
  • Avoided areas of stability:open space and establishedresidential areas
  • Initially, focused growtharound regional rail andrapid bus transit (BRT) andexisting urban centers
  • Established top prioritygrowth areas:rail and BRT transit areaswith both land capacityand planned capacity(high intensity GeneralPlan designations)
  • We expanded the toppriority areassignificantly by includinglocal bus transit
  • Adding local transit quadrupled the top priority areas from z123,000 acres to 534,000 acres and reduced densities
  • Conceptual Land Use Scenario• Maintains city and county forecasts for housing and jobs• Focuses growth around transit corridors and stations• Focuses new development in areas with planned capacity -1.5 -2.3 -2.5
  • Conceptual Land Use ScenarioStrengths and Weaknesses• Results in a reduction of 1.5 million tons of CO2• The modeling and research tells us that it is possible to significantly reduce GHG through land use strategies• Improved jobs to housing balance and distributed growth• Requires some new transportation investments• Requires additional TDM strategies• Modeling should take advantage of additional pedestrian and transit trips• Requires local and regional policy changes• Did not meet the 2.5 MMT target – 60% of the way
  • SCAG Region2008 RTP Adopted Forecast I-15 I-5 Ventura Ontario Brea I-10 Long Beach Hemet El Centro
  • SCAG RegionConceptual Land Use Scenario I-15 I-5 Ventura Ontario Brea I-10 Long Beach Hemet El Centro
  • Los Angeles County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast I-5 Burbank I-405 Los Angeles I-10 Santa Monica Brea Compton Long Beach
  • Los Angeles CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario I-5 Burbank I-405 Los Angeles I-10 Santa Monica Brea Compton Long Beach
  • Riverside County2008 RTP Adopted Forecast I-15 Victorville San BernardinoCorona I-10 Hemet Indio Temecula
  • Riverside CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario I-15 Victorville San BernardinoCorona I-10 Hemet Indio Temecula
  • Riverside County – Hemet2008 RTP Adopted Forecast State Highway 79 Hemet State Highway 74
  • Riverside County – HemetConceptual Land Use Scenario State Highway 79 Hemet State Highway 74
  • Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectHemet
  • San Bernardino County2008 Adopted RTP Forecast Barstow Victorville I-15 San Bernardino Twentynine Palms Ontario I-10 I-215
  • San Bernardino CountyConceptual Land Use Scenario Barstow Victorville I-15 San Bernardino Twentynine Palms Ontario I-10 I-215
  • San Bernardino County – Ontario2008 Adopted RTP Forecast NORTH San Bernardino Fwy Ontario Ontario Fwy
  • San Bernardino County – OntarioConceptual Land Use Scenario NORTH San Bernardino Fwy Ontario Ontario Fwy
  • Compass Blueprint Demonstration ProjectOntario
  • Conceptual LandUse ScenarioRegional Transportation IndicatorsGHGREDUCTION 1.5 MMTVMTREDUCTION 2.4%AVG TRIP LENGTHDECREASE 3.7%DAILY TRANSITBOARDING INCREASE 2.6%
  • Conceptual Land Use Scenario PerformanceDifferent Control Assumptions -0.9 -0.8 -1.5 -2.3 -2.5
  • Lessons Learned • A balance of nearby jobs and housing is importantPEDESTRIAN-ORIENTEDSTREETSCAPE • Growth around ALL transit is important • Mixed use centers and corridors and all kinds of transit are important • Walkable design is crucialMIXED USEDEVELOPMENT
  • This Conceptual Land UseScenario is Not a Proposal• Pursued this as a research project• Everything will be available online• Data and maps are available to subregions
  • SB 375 Timeline
  • Next Steps• Work sessions• Sharing data and resources• Review by county and city• Communication and outreach• Public workshops