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LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Jon Harrison

LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Jon Harrison



Jon Harrison, ESRI

Jon Harrison, ESRI



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    LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Jon Harrison LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Jon Harrison Presentation Transcript

    • Role of GIS in SB375Implementation StrategiesGreener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California Leonard Transportation Center Forum May 22, 2009 Jon Harrison ESRI
    • Topics • SB375’s niche in the climate change response • Where does GIS fit? • Example applications
    • SB 375’s Niche reduce VMT through coordinated land use / transportation planning • AB 32 • ARB’s Scoping Plan • SB 375 focus on VMT reduction ARB Emissions Inventory 700 600 ~173 MMT CO2e 1990 Reduction 500 EmissionMillion Metric Tons (CO 2 Equivalent) Baseline 400 300 80% Reduction 200 ~341 MMT 100 CO2e 0 1990 2000 2004 2020 2050 Year Cleaner fuels and better mileage will not be enough…
    • Carbon Dioxide Reduction Targets – AB32 Scoping Plan• Defines programs for achieving 2020 target – 63 MMT via various vehicle related programs • Only 5 MMT through VMT reduction (SB375) – 49 MMT via various Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency programs – 61 MMT via other programs, some TBD
    • Goals of SB 375• Use the regional transportation planning process to help achieve AB 32 Greenhouse Gas (GhG) reduction targets• Use CEQA streamlining as an incentive to encourage infill projects• Coordinate the regional housing needs allocation process with the regional transportation planning process. Better coordination of land use, transportation and evironmental planning may be the greatest benefit of SB375
    • SB 375 Information Flow Source: Center for Geographic Information Science Research, Cal Poly Pomona
    • Challenges for Meeting Goals• Data – many sources and formats• Modeling tools – multiple interrelated transportation, landuse and environmental factors• Verification – the plans for regional VMT reduction are subject to ARB approval• Monitoring of progress – localities, regions and ARB will need to track progress during 8 year cycle Different stakeholders have different interests
    • Role of GIS in Implementing SB 375Provide an enterprise approach:• Data Model – Manage land use, transportation, environmental, other data• Spatial Analysis Tools – Facilitate better planning, analysis, verification, monitoring• Web-based Modeling – Integrate multiple models from multiple sources based on geography• Visuallize Results – Provide comprehensive view and site specific views from the same data resources GIS is used to address common organizational challenges
    • GIS Organizes and Manages Geographic Knowledge Into components that are easy to understand, share and reuse Maps & Visualization Geoprocessing Models Workflows Geographic Data Metadata Data Models . . . in a Geodatabase
    • Many GIS Components for Climate Change Exist• Components: – Data model – Workflows – Geoprocessing models and applications – Interface to other models API . . . Provide the information and science
    • Transportation Models are Part of GIS Workflow
    • Web as Platform for SB375 SolutionsSupporting• Collaborative Computing Distributed Collaboration• Service Integration (Mashups)• User Contributed Content• Distributed Data Management Map Services Many Participants • Interconnected • Interoperable Web 2.0 • Integrative • Dynamic Web 1.0 GeoWeb. . . An Agile Framework for Collaboration & Integration of Systems
    • GIS supports information integration for stakeholders City / County MPO ARB GIS Software and models • General Plan • Develop SCS • Set Regional Targets • Climate Action Plan • Develop APS • Approve SCS/APS • CEQA compliance • Public Hearings • Overall AB 32 • CEQA Incentives • Monitor Progress implementation • RHNA goals Local GIS Integrate GIS from Integrate to statewide many sources level Development Community / Public
    • Examples of Applying GIS to range of SB375 Needs
    • SACOG BluePrint Project • Started with a Long Range Visioning Project • Alternatives were defined around Land Use, Transportation, Open Space, Quality of Life Issues • Participants worked with Maps, Statistics and Models run by staff • Workshops held in Each City, County, and then a Regional Workshop
    • SACOG BluePrint Project: Models SACOG PLACE3S MODELGIS Databases: Public Travel Demand Land Use Energy Use Model Input: Model Model (F)•Parcel Level LandUse / General Plans •Land Use Performance ROI Fiscal Changes•Parcel Level Measures Model ImpactEmployment •Housing Densities Water Public Health•Parcel Specific CO2 Model (F) Demand Model (F)Rents and Land Model •TODPrices
    • SACOG BluePrint ProjectParticipation: 3,000in 3 Different Sites
    • SANDAG Climate Action Planning (CAP) • Contract with the California Energy Commission (CEC) • Pilot project for developing a greenhouse gas reduction strategy Demographic and Economic Forecasting Model (DEFM) Land Use and Interregional Transportation Commuting Model Policies (IRCM) Cities/County Forecast (UDM) Transportation Forecasting Model (TRANSCAD)Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • Land Use and Transportation Forecasting Process • Stored in Landcore geodatabase • Assigns current and planned land use and “capacity” (maximum number of housing units and/or jobs) to each parcel of land Land Use and Transportation Policies Used ArcGIS to • Develop model inputs: Land use Transportation • Review the output • Display the output for policy-makersBeth Jarosz, Analyst
    • GIS input: Developing Alternative Land Use Scenarios • Used ArcMap to select transit stations with high “production” and “attraction”Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • GIS input: Developing Alternative Land Use Scenarios • ½ mile buffer around selected transit stations • Selected all parcels within buffer that were not cut off from station by a “walk barrier” • Changed planned land use mix and increased density in these target areasBeth Jarosz, Analyst
    • GIS Output: Base-Case Growth Projections: Housing Change 2010-2030 Jobs Change 2010-2030Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • GIS output: “Smart Growth” Alternative: Housing Change 2010-2030Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • GIS output: “Low Carbon” Alternative: Housing Change 2010-2030 Job Change 2010-2030Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • Preliminary Results for Land Use and Transportation Scenario Strategy GHG Emission Reduction Business as usual N/A Smart Growth Land Use 1.4% Enhanced Transit 2.4% TDM Measures 16.5% Telecommuting 4.3% Zonal Parking Fees 11.8% Other Measures 1.8%Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • Center for Neighborhood TechnologyLand use and Transportation• True Cost of Home Ownership• Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology
    • “Micro Scale” Applications of GIS to Climate Action Planning • Evaluate inclusion of a 4-Ds modeling component into transportation modeling – Density of development – Diversity of uses (e.g. mix of housing, commercial, office, etc..) – Distance to transit – Design for walk/bike (e.g. intersection density, sidewalk completeness)Beth Jarosz, Analyst
    • Themes in the New Generation of “4D” Tools INTEGRATED vs. Isolated • Whole Systems View – multi- disciplinary analysis & representation of a complex world (science based modeling) • Integration of multiple technologies – the Web with GIS, Spreadsheets with Databases, Hand Drawings with CAD/GIS – Digital Design • 2D and 3D integration, Multiple Representations and means of communication; Local to Regional to Global scale Integration EDAW / AECOM
    • Themes in New Generation of “4D” ToolsACCESSIBLE to a Broad Range of Users • Tools directly in the hands of decision makers, stakeholders and planners within a framework that brings together a range of experts • User friendly interfaces that are workflow based ; use of objects/processes increasingly similar to the real world EDAW / AECOM
    • Examples of 4D – Sustainable Development Tools SupportingCLIMATE CHANGE GENERAL PLANNING MODELS/Calculators Community Viz CTG’s Sustainable ®http://www.communityviz.com URBEMIS Communities Model (SCM ™) www.ctg-net.com What If?™ Software ICLEI’s CACP Criterion’s EDAW’s GHG Mitigation EDAW’s SSIM INDEX PlanBuilder® Tool http://www.edaw.com MetroQuest UrbanSIM™ www.envisiontools.com UC Davis” IPLACE3S UPLAN Criterion’s INDEX PlanBuilder® www.criterion.com Scenario-based, Multi-disciplinary Integrated Planning Decision Support Tools EDAW / AECOM
    • Sustainable Systems Integration Method (SSIM)What is SSIM? SSIM is an integrated set of tools that can be used to :– Assess Sustainability levels using Indicators for a development– Take a Comprehensive view of Sustainability by addressing all relevant themes such as built environments, ecology & ecosystem services, socio-economics, transportation and water systems– Use Integrated whole systems modeling incorporating interactions between themes, and cost-benefit analysis– Select and Evaluate various measures and packages for their performance in improving sustainability benchmarks– Create Programs that are a combination of various packages and compare alternative programs– Generate easy to use Dashboards to compare and present sustainability information EDAW / AECOM
    • Key Feature – Interactive Dashboard SSIM includes Workflow Based Interactive Dashboards with a variety of tables, charts, dials and menus to present analysis results, and allow interactive gaming of sustainability options. EDAW / AECOM
    • 4D Applications: Ability to Launch Models from Web Browsers• Fast Visualization• Intuitive• Web Centric Mapping Analysis Tasks ArcGIS ArcGIS Server Online . . . Accesses Maps, Models and Globe Services
    • 4D Applications :UrbanPlanning Solutions • Increased education to the public • Engage the public • Common methodology for 3D simulations across agencies • Tool to assist in the communication of redevelopment projects • Ease the management and distribution of large data sets
    • Transportation Models -Traditional Approach Travel Demand Emissions VMT Estimates Model EstimatesThis approach is what is typically done for an RTP or a General Plan.The travel model is usually run, perhaps with some modifications. VMTvalues are obtained, which produce emissions estimates. Typically, thereis little to no feedback. Source: Christopher Gray, Fehr & Peers
    • Transportation Models – Refined Input Non-Model Modify Model Adjustments -Replicate Speeds -Transit -Smart Growth -TDM Parcel Based Improved Updated Land Land Use Model Travel Demand VMT Estimates Use Data Model Emissions Estimates Alternative TestingThis approach would want to apply GIS-based land use models to provide refined land usedata input into a travel model. The travel model would provideVMT estimates. There would be extensive alternative testing. Source: Christopher Gray, Fehr & Peers
    • Transportation Models – Refined VMT Generation Inputs Parcel Based Household and VMT Estimates Land Use Model employee For City only (ESRI) VMT factors VMT estimates Travel model for regional travel Emissions only Estimates Alternative TestingThis approach would still use a travel model to get VMT estimates forregional travel. Local VMT would be developed using household andemployee VMT factors to determine VMT within the City itself. Source: Christopher Gray, Fehr & Peers
    • Conclusion: GIS Supports Collaborative Decision Making for SB375 • Many different stages, and processes involved in SB 375 land use/transportation planning Public / CARB Review &Community Visioning RTIP Planning Process Approaval EIR Analysis • Different participants and different tools at each stage • GIS provides tools and technologies that support and integrate all of these processes
    • Thank Youjharrison@esri.com www.esri.com