Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Black Knight Financial ServicesBlack Knight Financial Services
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor
Mortgage Market Performance O...
Black Knight Financial Services
 Focus 1: Loan originations, property sales and
underwriting criteria
 Focus 2: Modifica...
Black Knight Financial Services
 Origination volume is the lowest on record with prepay
speeds signaling more drops in re...
Black Knight Financial Services
Monthly origination volume is the lowest on record
4
Vintage Investor
2009 3.2%
2010 4.5%
...
Black Knight Financial Services
Prepayment speeds signal more
drops in refinance related originations
5
Black Knight Financial Services
January sales were essentially flat vs. 2013,
but traditional sales were up almost 15%
6
C...
Black Knight Financial Services
The government share of originations has decreased,
led by a sharp drop in HARP originatio...
Black Knight Financial Services
There is very little origination activity
in the lowest credit score buckets
8
Black Knight Financial Services
Credit standards have shown few signs of loosening
9
Black Knight Financial Services
FHA seeking to increase lending to
borrowers with lower credit scores
10
Black Knight Financial Services
 Modification activity ended 2013 near post-crisis
lows
 New HAMP regulations for FHA lo...
Black Knight Financial Services
Modification activity ended 2013
near post-crisis low
12
Mods activity dropped with
initia...
Black Knight Financial Services
New HAMP regulations for FHA loans driving
increased modification activity in early 2014
13
Black Knight Financial Services
Re-default rates for underwater
borrowers are ~30% higher on average
14
Black Knight Financial Services
Over 95% of rate reduction
modifications are facing resets
15
Black Knight Financial Services
Focus Point 3: Impact of CFPB regulations on
foreclosure process
16
 Implementation of CF...
Black Knight Financial Services
Implementation of CFPB rules caused a
sharp shift in the timing of foreclosure starts
17
Black Knight Financial Services
The ratio of serious deterioration to foreclosure
starts is at the highest level since 201...
Black Knight Financial Services
Foreclosure sales hit the lowest levels
since 2007, pushing pipeline ratios back up
19
Black Knight Financial Services
The average loan in foreclosure is now
2.6 years past due (vs. 0.7 years in 2008)
20
1200
...
Black Knight Financial Services
Focus Point 4: High level mortgage market stats and
home price update
21
 Delinquencies a...
Black Knight Financial Services
Delinquencies are below 6% for the first time since
‘08; foreclosures down 34% in the last...
Black Knight Financial Services
New York, New Jersey and Florida have the highest
rates of seriously delinquent (90+ or FC...
Black Knight Financial Services
National home prices have flattened out
over the last several months
24
Black Knight Financial Services
With distressed inventory resolution and price
increases, “underwater” rates continue to i...
Black Knight Financial ServicesBlack Knight Financial Services
BKFS Mortgage Monitor
Appendix
Data as of February, 2014 Mo...
Black Knight Financial Services
February 2014 Data Summary
27
Black Knight Financial Services
Seven of the top 10 states for total non-current are
judicial
28
Black Knight Financial Services
Loan counts and
average days delinquent
29
Black Knight Financial ServicesBlack Knight Financial Services
BKFS Mortgage Monitor
Disclosures: Product / Metric Definit...
Black Knight Financial Services
Disclosure Page: Product Definitions
*Conforming limits do not account for temporary or hi...
Black Knight Financial Services
Disclosure Page: Metrics Definitions
 Total Active Count: All active loans as of month-en...
Black Knight Financial Services 33
Disclosure Page: Extrapolation Methodology
Mortgage statistics are scaled to estimate t...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Mortgage Monitor February 2014

166

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
166
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Mortgage Monitor February 2014"

  1. 1. Black Knight Financial ServicesBlack Knight Financial Services Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Mortgage Market Performance Observations Data as of February, 2014 Month-end
  2. 2. Black Knight Financial Services  Focus 1: Loan originations, property sales and underwriting criteria  Focus 2: Modification volumes, performance and risks  Focus 3: Impact of CFPB regulations on foreclosure process  Focus 4: High level mortgage market stats and home price update Focus Points 2
  3. 3. Black Knight Financial Services  Origination volume is the lowest on record with prepay speeds signaling more drops in refi originations  Monthly sales were essentially flat year over year, but traditional sales were up almost 15%  The government share of originations has decreased, led by a sharp drop in HARP originations  Credit standards have shown few signs of loosening, with very little origination activity in the lowest credit score buckets Focus Point 1: Originations, property sales and underwriting criteria 3
  4. 4. Black Knight Financial Services Monthly origination volume is the lowest on record 4 Vintage Investor 2009 3.2% 2010 4.5% 2011 6.5% 2012 7.0% 2013 9.0%
  5. 5. Black Knight Financial Services Prepayment speeds signal more drops in refinance related originations 5
  6. 6. Black Knight Financial Services January sales were essentially flat vs. 2013, but traditional sales were up almost 15% 6 Cash sales represent almost half of all transactions
  7. 7. Black Knight Financial Services The government share of originations has decreased, led by a sharp drop in HARP originations 7 Vintage Gov’t % 2009 91% 2010 89% 2011 87% 2012 84% 2013 83%
  8. 8. Black Knight Financial Services There is very little origination activity in the lowest credit score buckets 8
  9. 9. Black Knight Financial Services Credit standards have shown few signs of loosening 9
  10. 10. Black Knight Financial Services FHA seeking to increase lending to borrowers with lower credit scores 10
  11. 11. Black Knight Financial Services  Modification activity ended 2013 near post-crisis lows  New HAMP regulations for FHA loans is driving increased modification activity in early 2014  Re-default rates for underwater borrowers are ~30% higher than borrowers with equity  Over 95% of rate reduction modifications are facing resets Focus Point 2: Modification volumes, performance and risks 11
  12. 12. Black Knight Financial Services Modification activity ended 2013 near post-crisis low 12 Mods activity dropped with initiation of HAMP “trials” HAMP trial conversion campaign Implementation of HAMP “Tier 2” Guidelines
  13. 13. Black Knight Financial Services New HAMP regulations for FHA loans driving increased modification activity in early 2014 13
  14. 14. Black Knight Financial Services Re-default rates for underwater borrowers are ~30% higher on average 14
  15. 15. Black Knight Financial Services Over 95% of rate reduction modifications are facing resets 15
  16. 16. Black Knight Financial Services Focus Point 3: Impact of CFPB regulations on foreclosure process 16  Implementation of CFPB rules caused a sharp shift in the timing of foreclosure starts  The ratio of serious deterioration to foreclosure starts is at the highest level since 2010  Foreclosure sales hit the lowest levels since 2007, pushing pipeline ratios back up  The average loan in foreclosure is now 2.6 years past due (vs. 0.7 years in 2008)
  17. 17. Black Knight Financial Services Implementation of CFPB rules caused a sharp shift in the timing of foreclosure starts 17
  18. 18. Black Knight Financial Services The ratio of serious deterioration to foreclosure starts is at the highest level since 2010 18
  19. 19. Black Knight Financial Services Foreclosure sales hit the lowest levels since 2007, pushing pipeline ratios back up 19
  20. 20. Black Knight Financial Services The average loan in foreclosure is now 2.6 years past due (vs. 0.7 years in 2008) 20 1200 Or more 0 Average days past due for loans in FC
  21. 21. Black Knight Financial Services Focus Point 4: High level mortgage market stats and home price update 21  Delinquencies are below 6% for the first time since ‘08; foreclosures down 34% in the last year  New York, New Jersey and Florida have the highest rates of seriously delinquent (90+ or FC) loans  National home prices have flattened out over the last several months  With distressed inventory resolution and annual price increases, “underwater” rates continue to improve
  22. 22. Black Knight Financial Services Delinquencies are below 6% for the first time since ‘08; foreclosures down 34% in the last year 22
  23. 23. Black Knight Financial Services New York, New Jersey and Florida have the highest rates of seriously delinquent (90+ or FC) loans 23 10% Or more 0 Percent 90+ or Foreclosure
  24. 24. Black Knight Financial Services National home prices have flattened out over the last several months 24
  25. 25. Black Knight Financial Services With distressed inventory resolution and price increases, “underwater” rates continue to improve 25
  26. 26. Black Knight Financial ServicesBlack Knight Financial Services BKFS Mortgage Monitor Appendix Data as of February, 2014 Month-end
  27. 27. Black Knight Financial Services February 2014 Data Summary 27
  28. 28. Black Knight Financial Services Seven of the top 10 states for total non-current are judicial 28
  29. 29. Black Knight Financial Services Loan counts and average days delinquent 29
  30. 30. Black Knight Financial ServicesBlack Knight Financial Services BKFS Mortgage Monitor Disclosures: Product / Metric Definitions and Market Sizing
  31. 31. Black Knight Financial Services Disclosure Page: Product Definitions *Conforming limits do not account for temporary or high-cost area increases. 31
  32. 32. Black Knight Financial Services Disclosure Page: Metrics Definitions  Total Active Count: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count.  Delinquency Statuses (30, 60, 90+, etc): All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.  90 Day Defaults: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.  Foreclosure Inventory: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.  Foreclosure Starts – Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month.  Non-Current: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.  Foreclosure Sale / New REO: Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation.  REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all properties on and off the market.  Deterioration Ratio: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. those improving. 32
  33. 33. Black Knight Financial Services 33 Disclosure Page: Extrapolation Methodology Mortgage statistics are scaled to estimate the total market performance based on coverage within the McDash database. The following table contains information on market coverage by product as of June 2012; extrapolations also include adjustments for vintage and as of date. Additional information is available upon request.
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×