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Checking Ambition with Reality
Where do we go with the P Index and site assessment?
Pete Kleinman
D. Beegle, A. Sharpley, D. Osmond, J. Lory,
P. Vadas, J. Weld, T. Veith, A. Collick
P Site Assessment tool
(on the books)
*
One national approach, 50 state options?
Uniformity vs. flexibility
One national approach, 50 state options?
NATIONAL
+ National resources
+ Consistency
 Regulatory, bureaucratic
 Uniform changes
 Equity?
STATE
+ Flexibility
 Regulatory, bureaucratic, political
 Nimble in responding to needed
change
 Local sensitivity
Something in between?
Regional approaches
Existing regional groups
SERA-17
Mule Barn Group
Other?
National P index assessment
Physiographic Regions
Allegheny Plateau
Ridge and Valley
Coastal Plain
Piedmont
Resistance to change
Nutrient management planning in Pennsylvania
Before 2006
No standardized format to PA plans
After 2006
Standardized formats (Word
docs) with manual calculation
2009 - Spreadsheet automation
- Supported by nutrient
management planning
community
- Exemptions allowed (most
big firms with existing
automation/interfaces)
Farmer
Private
Planner
Public
sector
review
Successes
• Improved consistency
 Internal (e.g., N and P recommendations)
 Plan review and oversight
• Ensures current agronomic information is used
 e.g., manure N availability changes in Agronomy guide automatically
updated in spreadsheet
• Efficiency - automated calculations and facilitated information entry
Barriers
• Meeting all end-user needs with standard output (farmer, private, public)
 Integration with existing private sector approaches and tools
• Learning curve
 spreadsheet tool
 Implementing, updating, and understanding Excel
Resistance to change
Pennsylvania’s NMP Standard Format Spreadsheet
So we want to improve things. What are our
objectives?
Getting lost in the possibilities
• Education
• Predicting outcomes
• Satisfying regulators, public perception
• Implementation of recommendations
• Improved water quality
• Sustainable agriculture
Who are the end users and what do they want?
Getting lost in the possibilities
In actuality
Action agencies, regulators,
consultants, public
 Affect change/ minimize
adverse impacts
 Implementation
• Consistent with other
approaches/rules
• Data, resources
• Readily applied
 Improves water quality
• quantifiable results?
Intended
Farmers, turf industry, home
owners, land managers
 Industry specific recs
 Understand issues and
management options
 Actionable guidance
P Index
Watershed model
What is the best tool?
Simple index or complex model
Complex
Simple
vulnerability
assessment
IFSM
SWAT
APEX
AnnAGNPS
CBM
P Index
User friendly,
water quality
predicting
APLE
WI Snap-Plus
OK PPM
TX TBET
Current options
Simple index or complex model
Farm to
Watershed
FieldField
SCALE OF APPLICATION
TYPE OF TOOL
How much is lost?
How much is
transferred?
What’s the impact?
Vulnerability to P loss or predicting effects
What do we want to know?
Simple P Index
Modifying current indices and making new ones
Modeled P loss (kg/ha)
SOURCE Factor
• Soil Test
• Fertilizer
• Rate
• Method
• Manure
• Rate
• Method
• PSC
X
Transport Factor
• Erosion
• Runoff
• Leaching
• Distance
• Modified
Connectivity
= P Index
Each Source Factor
weighted
Each Transport
Factor weighted
Current
r2=0.52
X =
P Index
Sediment P SOURCE
• Soil Test
Sediment Transport
• Erosion
Sediment P
Factor
Soluble P SOURCE
• Manure P
• Fertilizer P
• Soil Psat
X
Runoff Transport
• Runoff = Runoff Soluble P
Factor
X
Leaching Transport
• Leaching = Leaching Soluble
P Factor
Each Source Factor
weighted
Each Transport
Factor weighted Distance
Connectivity
Soluble P SOURCE
• Manure P
• Fertilizer P
• Soil Psat
r2=0.65
Modeled P Loss (kg/ha)
Revised“Component”PI
X =
Adapted from Bolster et al. (2012)
Appropriate
 Making management decisions
 Education about important factors of P loss, in format that
makes sense and is conceptually correct
 Directionally correct – If I do “X”, will P loss go up or
down?
Not appropriate
 Quantitative uses (unless proven otherwise)
 How much PI score changes not same as or
consistently proportional to actual P loss
 Challenge to meaningfully compare to measured P loss
data
 Event-based, spatial, beyond edge-of-field evaluations
Best Use of the P Index
r2 0.78 0.15
Correct 83% 53%
Low 10% 11%
High 7% 35%
High erosion, low
P application
Low runoff, erosion
high P application
Simple Index
Require the verification of complex models
SWAT Ratings
P Index Ratings
without Distance Factor
Medium
High
Very High
P loss vulnerability
Low
SWAT vs P Index:
Field-by-field ratings
Complex models
How do we make them user friendly and adapt them to state needs?
• SWAT interface for conservation planners
• No GIS - Little or no training required
• Evaluate practices funded by TSSWCB
• Quantitative sediment & nutrient reductions
• Extensively validated
Texas BMP Evaluation Tool
• Simulates management practices, cropping
systems, and other land uses across range of
agricultural landscapes (whole farms and small
watersheds)
• Represents suites of practices: filter strip,
intensive rotational grazing scenarios, vegetated
grassed waterways, and land application of
manure
• GIS‐based or Windows‐based interfaces
available
• Not yet in an interface such as TBET
Appropriate
 What areas and land uses contribute the most P?
 How will field changes affect water quality downstream?
 Where do changes need to be made to have the most
impact?
 How much land needs new practices?
Not appropriate
 Spatial BMP placement
 Farm and field-scale management
• Not designed to evaluate specific practices or fields
Complex models
Are we delivering advice that the farmer needs?
Forecasting Models
Pete Kleinman
USDA Agricultural Research Service
University Park, PA 16802
peter.kleinman@ars.usda.gov
Thank you

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Checking ambition with reality the pros and cons of different approaches to site assessment

  • 1. Checking Ambition with Reality Where do we go with the P Index and site assessment? Pete Kleinman D. Beegle, A. Sharpley, D. Osmond, J. Lory, P. Vadas, J. Weld, T. Veith, A. Collick
  • 2. P Site Assessment tool (on the books) * One national approach, 50 state options? Uniformity vs. flexibility
  • 3. One national approach, 50 state options? NATIONAL + National resources + Consistency  Regulatory, bureaucratic  Uniform changes  Equity? STATE + Flexibility  Regulatory, bureaucratic, political  Nimble in responding to needed change  Local sensitivity
  • 4. Something in between? Regional approaches Existing regional groups SERA-17 Mule Barn Group Other? National P index assessment Physiographic Regions Allegheny Plateau Ridge and Valley Coastal Plain Piedmont
  • 5. Resistance to change Nutrient management planning in Pennsylvania Before 2006 No standardized format to PA plans After 2006 Standardized formats (Word docs) with manual calculation 2009 - Spreadsheet automation - Supported by nutrient management planning community - Exemptions allowed (most big firms with existing automation/interfaces) Farmer Private Planner Public sector review
  • 6. Successes • Improved consistency  Internal (e.g., N and P recommendations)  Plan review and oversight • Ensures current agronomic information is used  e.g., manure N availability changes in Agronomy guide automatically updated in spreadsheet • Efficiency - automated calculations and facilitated information entry Barriers • Meeting all end-user needs with standard output (farmer, private, public)  Integration with existing private sector approaches and tools • Learning curve  spreadsheet tool  Implementing, updating, and understanding Excel Resistance to change Pennsylvania’s NMP Standard Format Spreadsheet
  • 7. So we want to improve things. What are our objectives? Getting lost in the possibilities • Education • Predicting outcomes • Satisfying regulators, public perception • Implementation of recommendations • Improved water quality • Sustainable agriculture
  • 8. Who are the end users and what do they want? Getting lost in the possibilities In actuality Action agencies, regulators, consultants, public  Affect change/ minimize adverse impacts  Implementation • Consistent with other approaches/rules • Data, resources • Readily applied  Improves water quality • quantifiable results? Intended Farmers, turf industry, home owners, land managers  Industry specific recs  Understand issues and management options  Actionable guidance
  • 9. P Index Watershed model What is the best tool? Simple index or complex model
  • 10. Complex Simple vulnerability assessment IFSM SWAT APEX AnnAGNPS CBM P Index User friendly, water quality predicting APLE WI Snap-Plus OK PPM TX TBET Current options Simple index or complex model Farm to Watershed FieldField SCALE OF APPLICATION TYPE OF TOOL
  • 11. How much is lost? How much is transferred? What’s the impact? Vulnerability to P loss or predicting effects What do we want to know?
  • 12. Simple P Index Modifying current indices and making new ones Modeled P loss (kg/ha) SOURCE Factor • Soil Test • Fertilizer • Rate • Method • Manure • Rate • Method • PSC X Transport Factor • Erosion • Runoff • Leaching • Distance • Modified Connectivity = P Index Each Source Factor weighted Each Transport Factor weighted Current r2=0.52 X = P Index Sediment P SOURCE • Soil Test Sediment Transport • Erosion Sediment P Factor Soluble P SOURCE • Manure P • Fertilizer P • Soil Psat X Runoff Transport • Runoff = Runoff Soluble P Factor X Leaching Transport • Leaching = Leaching Soluble P Factor Each Source Factor weighted Each Transport Factor weighted Distance Connectivity Soluble P SOURCE • Manure P • Fertilizer P • Soil Psat r2=0.65 Modeled P Loss (kg/ha) Revised“Component”PI X = Adapted from Bolster et al. (2012)
  • 13. Appropriate  Making management decisions  Education about important factors of P loss, in format that makes sense and is conceptually correct  Directionally correct – If I do “X”, will P loss go up or down? Not appropriate  Quantitative uses (unless proven otherwise)  How much PI score changes not same as or consistently proportional to actual P loss  Challenge to meaningfully compare to measured P loss data  Event-based, spatial, beyond edge-of-field evaluations Best Use of the P Index
  • 14. r2 0.78 0.15 Correct 83% 53% Low 10% 11% High 7% 35% High erosion, low P application Low runoff, erosion high P application Simple Index Require the verification of complex models
  • 15. SWAT Ratings P Index Ratings without Distance Factor Medium High Very High P loss vulnerability Low SWAT vs P Index: Field-by-field ratings
  • 16. Complex models How do we make them user friendly and adapt them to state needs? • SWAT interface for conservation planners • No GIS - Little or no training required • Evaluate practices funded by TSSWCB • Quantitative sediment & nutrient reductions • Extensively validated Texas BMP Evaluation Tool • Simulates management practices, cropping systems, and other land uses across range of agricultural landscapes (whole farms and small watersheds) • Represents suites of practices: filter strip, intensive rotational grazing scenarios, vegetated grassed waterways, and land application of manure • GIS‐based or Windows‐based interfaces available • Not yet in an interface such as TBET
  • 17. Appropriate  What areas and land uses contribute the most P?  How will field changes affect water quality downstream?  Where do changes need to be made to have the most impact?  How much land needs new practices? Not appropriate  Spatial BMP placement  Farm and field-scale management • Not designed to evaluate specific practices or fields Complex models
  • 18. Are we delivering advice that the farmer needs? Forecasting Models
  • 19. Pete Kleinman USDA Agricultural Research Service University Park, PA 16802 peter.kleinman@ars.usda.gov Thank you