Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans

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http://www.extension.org/67619 Weather conditions impact land application of manure. Wet soils hinder equipment from accessing fields. Regulations prohibit application on frozen or snow cover soils. …

http://www.extension.org/67619 Weather conditions impact land application of manure. Wet soils hinder equipment from accessing fields. Regulations prohibit application on frozen or snow cover soils. Uncertain soil and atmospheric conditions can cause the best plans to fail. Nutrient management plans that are expected to succeed might fail given any particular year’s weather. Incorporating fieldwork days information into nutrient management plans can make them more robust to uncertain weather conditions.

The USDA publishes the number of fieldwork days for different crop reporting districts within states. These data are from field reporters who provide their opinion on the number of days that were available for farmers to conduct fieldwork such as disking, planting and harvesting. USDA Fieldwork Days data cover the growing season (approximately April to December). Estimates of fieldwork days do not exist for the non-growing season (approximately December to April). However, certain states have agricultural weather station networks that collect soil temperature and other critical information that can be used to estimate the number of fieldwork days that exist for manure application within regulatory limits.

This project integrates fieldwork days from the USDA Fieldwork Days data with the Missouri Agricultural Weather Station Network winter soil temperature and precipitation data for the corresponding crop reporting district. This compiled database gives a complete year of fieldwork day estimates. The data are used in a model that allows nutrient management planners to incorporate climatological impacts into their land application plans. Users specify their equipment complement and size, quantity of manure, and desired beginning and ending dates. The model reports output in a cumulative distribution function that estimates the probability of completing fieldwork within the specified parameters and a sensitivity table of ending dates.

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  • 1. John Lory, Ray Massey and Pat GuinanUniversity of Missouri
  • 2.  Are we doing our job?
  • 3.  April through November USDA data –▪ Reporters’ opinion of soil conditions allowingequipment into the field▪ Reported as “days per week”▪ Over 30 years of data▪ http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Missouri/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/ Probability tool originally developed forMissouri. Work to expand to IA, IL, and KS.
  • 4. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 5. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 6. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 7. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 8. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 9. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 10. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 11. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 12. 01234567Mar27Apr10Apr24May08May22Jun05Jun19Jul03Jul17Jul31Aug14Aug28Sep11Sep25Oct09Oct23Nov06Nov20Daysperweek
  • 13.  Equipment Inputs to EstimateApplicationTime Capacity of spreader/tanker Application width Application travel speed Applicator discharge rate Travel time Infield travel time Road travel time Applicator load time
  • 14.  Equipment Inputs to EstimateApplicationTime Capacity of spreader/tanker Application width Application travel speed Applicator discharge rate Travel time Infield travel time Road travel time Applicator load time
  • 15.  4,800 Grow-Finish Operation Generates enough manure to provide N for 400 acres of corn. Application rate 175 lbs N/A (4,375 gal/A) Fields average 1 mile from barn LandApplication Equipment 6000 gallon tanker 15-foot swath injector Travel speeds:▪ Road: 10 mph▪ In field, not applying: 7 mph▪ In field, applying: 3.4 mph (requires 450 gal/min discharge rate)▪ Loading time: 10 minutes/load Application time estimate: 200 hours Application efficiency estimate: 0.36
  • 16.  Scenario 1 Northwest Missouri Apply in April Run tanker up to 12 hours per day, 6 days per week Need 200 hours Analysis Mean:130 hours fieldwork in April12 % probability of success00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 50 100 150 200 250 300ProbablityofCompletionHours Available
  • 17. 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 100 200 300 400 500 600ProbablityofCompletionHours Available Solution 1 (need 200 hrs): Expand application to May(ApplyApril to June 2 (2 months)) Mean:305 hours fieldwork in April-May87% probability of successApril-May
  • 18. 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 50 100 150 200 250 300ProbablityofCompletionHours Available Solution 2: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank(road time goes to zero) Need 130 hours Mean:130 hours fieldwork in April53% probability of successApril
  • 19. 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 100 200 300 400 500 600ProbablityofCompletionHours Available Solution 3: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank(road time goes to zero) ApplyApril to June 2 (2 months) Need 130 hours Mean:305 hours fieldwork inApril plus MayApril 1 – June 296% chance of successApril - May
  • 20. 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 50 100 150 200 250 300ProbablityofCompletionHours Available Solution 4: Increase tank size to 7200 gal. Get a nurse tank(road time goes to zero) Move 33% of application to fall Need 130 hours.86 hours April71 % chance of success44 hours from Nov. 18 -3080% chance of success in Nov.April00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910 20 40 60 80 100ProbablityofCompletionHours AvailableNov. 18-30
  • 21. 165170175180185190195200205FieldDistance (-)SwathWidth (+)Tanker size(+)RoadTravelSpeed (+)FieldTravelSpeed (+)Hourstocover400acresBase20% changeField distance: 1.0 to 0.8 miles Tanker size: 6000 to 7200 gal. Field travel speed: 7.0 to 8.4 mphSwath width: 15 to 18 feet Road travel speed: 10 to 12 mph
  • 22.  Expand to other states Integrate into nutrient management reporting software Quantitative approach for April - November
  • 23.  Not covered by the Fieldwork database Factors to consider Soil temperature below 32oF (frozen soils) Snow cover Precipitation Saturated soils
  • 24. 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91Fractionofdayssoilsare<32oFonthatdayoftheyearAlbany South Farm Lamar
  • 25. 0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.030 50 70 90 110Lamar Novelty South FarmProbabilityofsuccessDays wanted
  • 26.  Critical to integrate theconcept of risk intonutrient managementdecisions.http://swine.missouri.edu/swine/PDFM.xls