Best Practices in
implementing a Rolling
Forecast

Speaker Name
Speaker Role, Company Name



© 2009 IBM Corporation
Session Objectives


In today’s session we will:


   Review the need for solid
   forecasting practices
   Learn about th...
„Expect the Unexpected.“
David Axson
Forecasting a critical business
process in turbulent times.
What is a forecast?

                  Forward Looking




Fact-based                                          Flexible


...
„The end result ... is not an
accurate picture of tomorrow,
but better decisions about
the future.“
Peter Schwartz, The Ar...
Good forecasting practices create value




                         Career
                                          Perf...
The traditional approach...




         J   F M A M J        J   A S O N D
The traditional template
Static forecasts do not
provide the necessary
visibility in turbulent
times.
It shows...
Rolling Forecasts.
 An effective approach.




© 2009 IBM Corporation
What is a Rolling forecast


     J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

              Q1 Forecast

Traditional             ...
Why are rolling forecasts attractive?


 Increased visibility
 Consistent time horizon
 Less reliance on budget
 Solid bas...
Rolling Forecasts speed up the budgeting process




           Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
Not only time is saved. Satisfaction increases.




               Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
Some elements of a successful forecast




 Time Horizon &                            Process
Update Frequency            ...
Time Horizon &                     Process
Update Frequency                  Management
                   Agile Models
Rolling Forecast = 12 month quartely?




  No. It depends on your   business!
Match the time horizon to the rhythm of your business


              Short cycles             Long cycles
   Industry



...
„Best practice companies
   move towards more
frequent & event-driven
         updates.“
Time Horizon &                     Process
Update Frequency                  Management
                   Agile Models
Remember this template?
„Simplicity is the ultimate
sophistication.“
Leonardo da Vinci
Less is more! Simplify your models
Utilize drivers – the language of business



                                        Opportunities
                      ...
Revenue?
Time Horizon &                     Process
Update Frequency                  Management
                   Agile Models
Process management is critical
                                  Wow...there are a
                                 lot of...
SAP

           HR


            DW



          Update             Distribute             Aggregate              What-if ...
Management   Decision
 Meetings
             Making!
Critical elements of the process



  Aim for repeatability
  Measure the quality
  Set strict goals
And measure & monitor your process




                            Forecast Accuracy


                                Cyc...
Summary: Some elements of a successful forecast




 Time Horizon &                         Process
Update Frequency      ...
Demo goes here
Rolling Forecasts – a silver bullet?




   No one-size-fits-all approach
   Agile models & process required
   Technology...
Next Steps
                             Analyze your processes
                             Download our white papers & bl...
Session Summary

   The current business environment requires solid
   forecasting practices that the traditional approach...
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FORO_FINANCIERO: Rolling Forecasts como alternativa a la planificacion tradicional

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FORO_FINANCIERO: Rolling Forecasts como alternativa a la planificacion tradicional

  1. 1. Best Practices in implementing a Rolling Forecast Speaker Name Speaker Role, Company Name © 2009 IBM Corporation
  2. 2. Session Objectives In today’s session we will: Review the need for solid forecasting practices Learn about the rolling forecast philosophy Discuss three best practices for implementing a rolling forecast
  3. 3. „Expect the Unexpected.“ David Axson
  4. 4. Forecasting a critical business process in turbulent times.
  5. 5. What is a forecast? Forward Looking Fact-based Flexible Focused on Risks & Opportunities
  6. 6. „The end result ... is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future.“ Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
  7. 7. Good forecasting practices create value Career Perform n ance Reputatio
  8. 8. The traditional approach... J F M A M J J A S O N D
  9. 9. The traditional template
  10. 10. Static forecasts do not provide the necessary visibility in turbulent times.
  11. 11. It shows...
  12. 12. Rolling Forecasts. An effective approach. © 2009 IBM Corporation
  13. 13. What is a Rolling forecast J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q1 Forecast Traditional Q2 forecast Q3 Q1 Forecast Rolling forecast
  14. 14. Why are rolling forecasts attractive? Increased visibility Consistent time horizon Less reliance on budget Solid baseline for new plans
  15. 15. Rolling Forecasts speed up the budgeting process Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
  16. 16. Not only time is saved. Satisfaction increases. Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
  17. 17. Some elements of a successful forecast Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
  18. 18. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
  19. 19. Rolling Forecast = 12 month quartely? No. It depends on your business!
  20. 20. Match the time horizon to the rhythm of your business Short cycles Long cycles Industry Consumer electronics Oil exploration Retailing Pharma development Investment banking Infrastructure investment Plant construction Function Advertising Cash flow Infrastructure investment Overtime Research & development
  21. 21. „Best practice companies move towards more frequent & event-driven updates.“
  22. 22. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
  23. 23. Remember this template?
  24. 24. „Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.“ Leonardo da Vinci
  25. 25. Less is more! Simplify your models
  26. 26. Utilize drivers – the language of business Opportunities Pipeline Number of employees VS. Customer Satisfaction 634172 – Revenue (New Accts) 665891 – Office Supplies (Paper) 665892 – Office Supplies (Pens) 677199 – Gifts, Misc.
  27. 27. Revenue?
  28. 28. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
  29. 29. Process management is critical Wow...there are a lot of moving parts! We need to make a critical decision quickly!
  30. 30. SAP HR DW Update Distribute Aggregate What-if & Models Models data Optimize New Load Collect Report & version Actuals Data Analyze
  31. 31. Management Decision Meetings Making!
  32. 32. Critical elements of the process Aim for repeatability Measure the quality Set strict goals
  33. 33. And measure & monitor your process Forecast Accuracy Cycle Time Confidence Levels
  34. 34. Summary: Some elements of a successful forecast Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
  35. 35. Demo goes here
  36. 36. Rolling Forecasts – a silver bullet? No one-size-fits-all approach Agile models & process required Technology as enabler Forecast culture required
  37. 37. Next Steps Analyze your processes Download our white papers & blueprints Join the Cognos Innovation Center Web: www.ibm.com/cognos/innovation-center Twitter: @ibmcognosicemea
  38. 38. Session Summary The current business environment requires solid forecasting practices that the traditional approaches do not provide Rolling forecasts provide a proven approach for gaining better business insight in today’s volatile business climate IBM provides best practices and solutions for implementing a better forecasting approach
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