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Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security
 

Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security

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  • Mning, forest & agro > 90% area but 78% or projects
  • Mning, forest & agro > 90% area but 78% or projects
  • 4 producs make more than 2/3Sugarecane & jartropha (as biofuels) m 43%Investor thai (40) > clao (15) > s korea > china > vietnam
  • China (24%) > vn > JV (22) > lao
  • China & vietnam 60% or area but only 23% of projectchina, vietnam and laos make up 70% of areaChina and vietam 60% of area but only 25% of projectRow LabelsSum of Area_Final%China499571.374535.75013Vietnam306975.002521.96762Laos179882.218912.87266Thailand75890.699075.43086
  • Size is a factor in negosation power Av sugarcane is over 3000ha whiel cassava, jartopha and cofee are around 500 ha only
  • Overage povertry rate may seem below average, BUT still 30% of villages severly poor (as the bigger villages nd towns wwith low povertry rates) skew the pivturefForetsr far above, consider that these the large sale &  inbalanceinnegosiation power
  • Reflects overal picture with forest & rotational agri areas totally > 80
  • Share mine & hydro 10% of gdpexpeced over 20% by 2020Higher economic growth (hydropower and mining contributed 2.5 of the annual 7 percent growth in Laos in the • last three years)significant increase in fiscal revenues (mining and hydro now constitute about 20 percent of total reven20% by 2020 of gdb

Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security Presentation andreas heinimann cde tabi 1 june 2012 food security Presentation Transcript

  • Beyond anecdotal evidence of land acquisitions in Lao PDRFirst results on: Dimension and Geography of LA in Lao PDR Andreas Heinimann, Oliver Schoenweger, Michael Epprecht, Palikone Thalongsengchan LIWG Food security WS 1st June 2012
  • Mushrooming of land concessions & leases in the last decade Nr. of land concessions & leases
  • CPL induced landscape transformation
  • Information and knowledge sources:Local case studies & Systematic national data evidence Dimension, contexts  processes and pattern  3’600 deals, whereof 2’640 concessions type, 1,350 with spatial reference  1.1 Mio ha concessions (without mining exploration)  Agri 140’000 ha & forestry: 300’000 ha  ~15% of all villages have a least 1 concession
  • Emerging patterns by sector Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Products of agricultural concessions N = 360, Area = 140’000 ha Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Products of forestry concessions N = 367, Area = 306’000 ha Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Spatial patterns by Investor Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Pattern by Investor: Focus on Agri & forestry sectors Sugarcane Jatropha Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Contexts of concessions: e.g. Poverty Av. National poverty rate Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Contexts of concessions: Accessibility Source: CDE, MoNRE, GIZ Preliminary results; do not cite
  • Contexts of concessions: Land coverNote:Caution is neededwheninterpreting, as2002 land coverdata isproblematic (e.g.“unstocked forest”or “forest issue”)
  • Tendency of shifting upland crops to hinterland due to commercial crop pressure in well accessibly regions Shifting cultivation dominated landscapes between 2001 - 2009 K. Hurni , et al, in prep
  • Summary & some key messages• This is first , one point in time, picture of dimension and context of land deals. (But 1. contract farming not included in this and 2. the distributed mandates among the sectors do not yet ensure consistent monitoring & sharing)• Only very few products dominate the land rented out in the agriculture and forestry sector• FDI deals are on average by factor 3 -5 time larger in terms of area granted than domestic ones, and by tendency in more remote regions• Land deals are not mainly in the very marginal areas (in terms of poverty, accessibility and ethnicity), but still a considerable share of such regions is potentially affected• Some indications that land deals are to a considerable share taking place in regions with rotational agricultural systems• Some signs that, due to CPL pressure in better accessible regions, subsistence food production is shifted to more remote location (temporary symptom only ?)
  • NOTE: Hydropower reservoirs are NOTconcessions, hence not in this inventory