Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning

Horizon ScanningHarry Woodroof, PhD FRSADstl Horizon Scanning Teamhjwoodroof@dstl.gov.ukLibrary & Information Science Research CoalitionDeveloping Research Excellence and Methods(DREaM) workshopEdinburgh 25 April 2012© Crown Copyright 2012. Published with the permission of the DefenceScience and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO. Dstlpublication reference: DSTL/ PUB63411.

Horizon Scanning: the rationale• The future is uncertain.• All decisions are made (in the present) about the future.• Therefore, decision-makers need to get and use information (in the present) about the future. Horizon Scanning can help! Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Defence Science and TechnologyLaboratory (Dstl)• Agency of Ministry of Defence• >3,900 staff – civil servants – >70% scientists, engineers, analysts• “Maximising the impact of Science & Technology (S&T) on UK Defence and Security• ….. and understand S&T risks and opportunities through horizon scanning”• S&T Horizon Scanning team of eight (most part-time)• Also Social, Economic, Environmental, Political futures Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Prime Minister and Cabinet Professor Sir John Beddington, CMG, FRS Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science Government Office for Science (GO-Science) The Foresight Programme (as in 2009) Horizon Scanning Centre Foresight projects smaller projects, entire policy spectrum (large (18 months), science-focussed)SocialTechnicalEconomic strategyEnvironmentalPolitical Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Horizon scanning – a definition“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning.Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.” Chief Scientific Advisers Committee (CSAC) 09/04 Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

The „knowledge mix‟ in a research organisation what we know what we don’t know Answered questions Unanswered questions We know Libraries Research Programme Maintenance is key Access is key Unrecognised answers Unasked questions We don’t know Experience To ask what if? we don’t recognise, Requires external Internal connectivity stimulus or intervention is key Exposure to risk Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

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The “evidence-based policy” paradox• Policy is about solutions for the future• But conventional “evidence” is about the past Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 8 Ministry of Defence

Four (of many) approaches topreparing for the future• Expert views Common. (Deeply(?)) unsatisfactory• Extrapolations Horizon Scanning• Scan www e.g. Dstl approach (S&T only) More complex Costlier (Hopefully(!)) more• “Scan of Scans” + people e.g. HSC Sigma Scan helpful Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

The problem with expert predictions • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 • "640K ought to be enough for anybody" – Bill Gates, Microsoft • “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication” – Western Union memo • "It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become Prime Minister" – Margaret Thatcher, 1974 • "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" – Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929 • “Everything that can be invented has been invented." – Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 [urban legend] Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Individual experts - 2• Philip Tetlock: “Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It?,” 2005 – 20-year study of 28000 predictions by 284 pundit, political academics and theorists• Experts barely did better than random guesses – Very basic computer models did far better• More prominent the pundit; the worse the estimate – Usually did better making political predictions outside their area of greatest expertise• Experts tend to attach great importance to things they know about – even if these are not critical to the outcome Slide based on Opinion Piece by Daniel Finkelstein. The Times. 04 Jan 12. Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Use groups of experts?• Seek consensus amongst experts – Doesn‟t always exist – especially at margins of a discipline or issue – Especially about the future! – Not the complete solution Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

The dangers of linear extrapolation Prediction Reality “Precisely wrong” Time Time Futures “Imprecisely right” Time Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Science & Technology horizon scanning in Dstl Dstl is part of the© Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Uses of S&T horizon scanning in Dstl“ Dstl seeks to ……understand science and technology risks and opportunities through horizon-scanning”. National Security through Technology: Technology, Equipment and Support for UK Defence and Security. Cm 8278. Feb 12IN ORDER TO: – Prioritise R&D programmes – Inform strategic Corporate Planning – Improve the Return on Investment in R&D Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Dstl S&T horizon scanningThe current state of human knowledge aboutnon-defence S&T developments……. …….is contained (reasonably completely) in the content of the WWW http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b9/WorldWideWebAroundWikipedia.png/220px-WorldWideWebAroundWikipedia.png Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Dstl S&T horizon scanning: examples of web sources used Category Examples Popular science New Scientist, Science Daily, Physorg (aggregators), Technovelgy… News BBC S&T, ABC (US and Australia), The Indian… Online journals RSC, Nature, Science, Web of Knowledge (aggregators)… Government Labs Argonne, NIST (US and Japan), CSIRO (Australia)…360° horizon Research Councils MRC, NERC, ESPRC… Academia MIT (Technology Review), Harvard, Queensland, Imperial… Blogs New Scientist, Wired, Technorati (search engine)… E-print servers ARXIV, PLoS (open access), Sciences preprint… Protoscience Scifiblog, DVICE, … Patents Derwent II, Espacenet, Inventorspot… Specialist sites Nanotechnology Now, Alternative Energy News, Medgadget… list of >500 sources Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Dstl S&T horizon scanning:scanning not searching • In searching, we describe what is (likely to be) interesting before we retrieve it. • In scanning, we realise what‟s interesting after we‟ve retrieved it. • The key challenge is then to turn a search engine into a scanning engine. Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Dstl S&T horizon scanning:searching for excitementLook for developments containing, e.g…  revolutionary  ground-breaking  unprecedented  paves the way  world‟s first  close to reality  first time  breakthrough  orders of magnitude  ……  paradigm  ……  previously impossible http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1171409 Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

„Sentiment searching‟ on WWW“INNOVATIVE BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH*”OR “MUCH-NEEDED BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “REAL BREAKTHROUGH*”OR “RECENT BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “REVOLUTIONARY BREAKTHROUGH*”OR “SIGNIFICANT BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH*”OR “TECHNOLOGY BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH DISCOVERY”OR “BREAKTHROUGH IDEAS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH RESULT”OR “BREAKTHROUGH REVEALS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH SCIENC*”OR “BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOG*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH THINKING”OR “BREAKTHROUGH* CAN DELIVER” OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR BASIC”OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR APPLIED” OR “POSSIBLE BREAKTHROUGH*”OR “BREAKTHROUGH* USING NEW” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN FUTURE”OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN QUALITY” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN SCIENC*”OR “BREAKTHROUGH KEY ENABLERS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* TO HARNESS”OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR UNDERSTANDING” Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Dstl web-scanning for sentiment:possible limitations Social ? Scope Technological √ Economic ? Environmental ? Political ? Currency Time to publish Access To what‟s not web-published Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political (STEEP) Horizon Scanning in Government Office for ScienceForesight Horizon Scanning Centre Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

HSC methodology:a “Scan of Scans” Expert Inputs Scanning of Gap New HS scans analysis research e-database Response Sigma Scan Testing Secondary Analysis inc.weak signals Peer review Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Adam Smith Institute British Social Attitudes Europe 2020 Central Intelligence Agency Amnesty InternationalArlington Institute Survey Future of Work (US) Board of Deputies ofAtlantic Monthly Centre for Environmental Futures Commonwealth Secretariat British Jews Research, Columbia Competition Commission British CouncilBrookings Institution University FuturistCato Center for Trade Institute for the Future DEFRA Baseline Scan Countryside Alliance e-Living (EC 5FP) ProjectPolicy Studies McKinsey Global Institute DEFRA Forward Look International Red CrossCentre for European ESRC Centre for Department for Culture, and Red Crescent Business Research, MORI Polls MovementReform Media and Sport Institute of Development Shaping Tomorrow Make Poverty HistoryCentre for Strategic and Department for InternationalInternational Studies Studies Shell Global Scenarios Development campaignChatham House Los Angeles Law Review Siemens Horizons Department for Work and Muslim Council of BritainForeign Affairs Policy Studies Review SRI Consulting Pensions OxfamHoover Digest Russian Journal, The World Future Society Department of Education Trade Union Congress (US) World Health OrganizationIndependent Commission Scienceon Population and Quality Department of Health World Trade Organization Science and Publicof Life Department of Justice (US) Institute for Public Policy PolicyInstitut de Recherche en Department of Labor (US) ResearchPolitiques Publiques World Values SurveyInstitute for Fiscal Studies SIGMA Scan: scan of scans: >250 papers: STEEP-wide Corporate Foresight Charities/NGOs the top Horizon Scan sources Expert/Strategic Think tanks thinkers Blog sites global coverage Academic Government sources Minority publications communities Alternative journals both „traditional‟ and Futurologists Mainstream media „unconventional‟ Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Sigma Scan: example topics Social, Economic, Environmental, S&T Political • Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine• Right to live: right to die? • Quantum chemistry for• Global courting : the supremacy pollution abatementof international law • Nanowire sensors for DNA• Increase in e-commuting testing• UK rules OK : isolationist Britain • Advent of molecular• End of public broadcasting archaeology• Ghettoisation of minority • Computing on the humanpopulations platform• Landfill capacity limits reached • Solar: the energy wild-card• Economic impact of ageing • From ink-jet printing to personal• The “rights” of robots fabrication• Corrupting aid flows • Brazil‟s expanding tech. sector• …………………. • …………………. Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 26 Ministry of Defence

The rationale• The future is uncertain.• All decisions are made about the future.• Therefore, decision-makers need to get and use information about the future. Horizon Scanning can help! Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

UK National Security Strategy, Jun 09 Chapter 4: The UK Government‟s Approach to National Security: interests, planning assumptions and organisation4.1 “This chapter sets out how we apply the principles and Strategic Framework discussed in Chapter 3 to the particular interests and concerns of the United Kingdom and its people. Drawing on an assessment of these interests, and our work on horizon scanning about the future development of threats and drivers ………..” Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

Some other uses of horizonscanning in Govt.• “….. guarding against technological surprise through horizon scanning”. Equipment, Support, and Technology for UK Defence and Security: A Consultation Paper. Cm 7989. Dec 10• Threat Identification• Prioritisation of R&D programmes• Departmental and other strategies Dstl is part of the © Crown Copyright Dstl 2012 Ministry of Defence

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Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning

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