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The Use of Evidence in Developing Countries: Experiences and Challenges -
 

The Use of Evidence in Developing Countries: Experiences and Challenges -

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    The Use of Evidence in Developing Countries: Experiences and Challenges - The Use of Evidence in Developing Countries: Experiences and Challenges - Presentation Transcript

    • The use of evidence in developing countries: Experiences and Challenges
      Miguel Szekely, October 11, 2010
    • 3ie
      3ie aims to improve the lives of people in the developing world by supporting the production and use of better evidence of what works, when, why and for how much
    • Why are we still asking this question?
      21st Century
      Decades (centuries) of policy interventions
      The fact is that we don’t have powerful answers (in general)
      Why is it necessary to have a 3ie?
    • Evaluation in other areas
      Building a bridge (stands and resists, or breaks down)
      Economic management (growth, employment, inflation, exchange rate stability)
      Tangible results observable and evident in the short run
      Constituencies can vote depending on measurable tangible results
    • Evaluation in developing policy (education, poverty alleviation)
      Problems with measuring welfare
      Results take a long time to manifest and to be observed
      Difficult to find who to blame (Toyota, Spaceship vs teacher)
      Large bureaucracies become constituencies and feel threatened
    • Contents:
      The need for improving policy impact in developing countries
      Experiences from Mexico in Social Development and Education
      Thinking about the problem
      Ways forward
    • Contents:
      The need for improving policy impact in developing countries
      Experiences from Mexico in Social Development and Education
      Thinking about the problem
      Ways forward
    • Normally you would expect ….
      Evidence-based
      Policy design
      Evaluation
      Monitoring
      Implementation
      Decisions
      Improvement
      Changes
      Evidence
    • Usually you see….
      Decisions
      Improvement
      Changes
      Implementation
    • Unfortunately…
      • Very seldom are policy decisions taken, based on scientific (or other) evidence
      • Has been like this for years in important areas such as education, (health) and poverty alleviation programs
      • Good opportunity for 3ie
    • Contents:
      The need for improving policy impact in developing countries
      Experiences from Mexico in Social Development and Education
      Thinking about the problem
      Ways forward
    • 4 experiences
      4 regularities
      • Poverty measurement
      • Social program evaluation
      • Standardized tests in Education
      • Evaluation of school principals
      • Ignored
      • Angry
      (people take it personal)
      • Scared
      • Use
    • Contents:
      The need for improving policy impact in developing countries
      Experiences from Mexico in Social Development and Education
      Thinking about the problem
      Ways forward
    • Very similar to principal-agent problem
      Politicians
      Evaluators
      Utility =
      • Get reelected
      • Re-appointed
      • Keep the boat afloat
      Utility =
      • Academic purity
      • Publications
      • Prestige
      Improvement design and maximizing policy impact
    • 1. Different Marginal Propensity to “consume and produce” evaluations
      Politicians
      Evaluators
      High MPc due to need to show results (deliver to constituencies, and little time to reap benefits)
      Low MPc due to time needed to increase quality of academic output (probability of publication)
    • 2. Different expected returns from evaluating
      Politicians
      Evaluators
      Uncertain results, uncertain political capitalization (only through positive impact)
      Publication depends on methodological and theoretical rigorousness, not on positive or negative effects
    • 3. Different priorities
      Politicians
      Evaluators
      • Political feasibility
      • Economic feasibility
      • Social feasibility
      • Academic rigorousness
      • Production of knowledge
    • Contents:
      The need for improving policy impact in developing countries
      Experiences from Mexico in Social Development and Education
      Thinking about the problem
      Ways forward
    • How can we get closer (aligning incentives/cultural change)
      Politicians
      Evaluators
      • Evaluation NOT the final product (implementing improvement is)
      • Pay for implementation strategies', not only for evaluation
      • Incentives on successful implementation (3ie)
      • Quicker ways of disseminating results
      • Link budget to results
      • Link hiring and firing to results
      • Institutionalize evaluation practice (de-link from political cycles)
      • Offer evaluations of a set of instruments to choose
      Critical role for the media