Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Surviving the Big One: Recovery After the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake - Dr Patrick Nolen, University of Essex
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Surviving the Big One: Recovery After the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake - Dr Patrick Nolen, University of Essex

896

Published on

Published in: Education, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
896
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Surviving the Big One: Recovery after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Shuaizhang Feng and Patrick Nolen SHUFE and Essex October 11, 2010 Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 1 / 20
  • 2. Introduction Number of Natural Disasters has been increasing since 1960 (CRED-Belgium) Rural households in developing countries are especially vulnerable negative shocks from extreme natural disasters. Kahn (2006) and Stromberg (2007) show that, all else equal, the poorer a country struck by a natural disaster, the more people die. Stromberg (2007), using cross-country data, argues that ‘better’ institutions in developed countries can explain some of the differences in death rates. Burgess, Deschenes, Donaldson, Greenstone (2010) show extreme heat leads to more death in rural areas of India. Some work on vulnerability has examined what types of households are vulnerable to negative shocks. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 2 / 20
  • 3. This Paper Little or no micro-econometric work on causes of why some households recover quicker or suffer less ‘damage’ due to extreme negative shocks. We will examine: 1 What household characteristics are associated with quicker recovery? 2 What mechanisms do these characteristics suggest are allowing more resilience? In particular we will focus on the role of: Off-farm labour Land holdings Politics and/or close connections to leaders. Government relief Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 3 / 20
  • 4. Background May 12, 2008 an 8.0 magnitude earthquake centered in Wenchuan struck. Sky-scrappers in Shanghai, more than 1, 000 miles away shook. 45 million people directly effected. 70, 000 people died and 18, 000 still considered missing. Mianzhu county was one of the hardest hit areas. Of 500, 000 residents: 10, 000 died and 1, 898 are still missing. Government estimates direct economic loss of RMB130 billion ($19.4 billion). Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 4 / 20
  • 5. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 5 / 20
  • 6. Data Pre-Earthquake: Detailed household income and expenditure survey for 800 families in rural Sichuan collected in August 2007. Households from two towns: X and S. Town X is 10km north of Mianzhu, and Town S is 20km south ⇒ Town X is 30km closer to the epicenter. Randomly sampled 9 sub-villages (from 3 villages) in Town X. Randomly sampled 6 sub-villages (from 3 villages) in Town S. Post-Earthquake: Detailed household income and expenditure survey with questions regarding the earthquake and government support for over 850 households collected in August 2009. Same sub-villages were surveyed. 700 of the same households from 2007 were sampled. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 6 / 20
  • 7. Epicenter Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 7 / 20
  • 8. Pre-Earthquake Summary Statistics: 2007 Variable Town X Town S Difference Age 40.00 40.13 0.128 Female 0.49 0.49 -0.001 Urban HuKo 0.10 0.12 0.017 Party Member 0.03 0.03 0.001 Work Off-Farm 0.30 0.29 -0.006 Height (cm) 154.00 152.09 -1.911** Weight (.5kilo) 56.20 62.75 6.549*** Ciggarettes per day 3.80 3.52 -0.278 Size of HH 3.17 3.26 0.094 Land (mu) 3.50 2.92 -0.581*** Monthly HH income (RMB) 1055.00 1289.26 234.259** Monthly HH off-farm income (RMB) 564.00 705.57 141.570** Monthly HH expenditure (RMB) 1038.00 1107.90 69.902 Town S slightly richer and has shorter, ‘fatter’ people, who do not work on the land as much. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 8 / 20
  • 9. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 9 / 20
  • 10. Effects of Earthquake Variables Town X Town S Difference Injured 0.04 0.01 -0.034*** Go to Hospital 0.03 0.01 -0.021*** No treatment 0.02 0.00 -0.018*** Cost of Inj (RMB) 197.20 2.34 -194.857** Out of pocket cost (RMB) 16.39 2.28 -14.113* Yeild Lost (RMB) 771.05 508.51 -262.544*** Farm Inc Lost (RMB) 701.00 701 00 483.06 483 06 -217.940*** -217 940*** Livestock Inc Lost (RMB) 738.50 388.56 -349.943*** Lost workdays 0.23 0.18 -0.048*** Workdays lost 25.95 16.85 -9.104*** Lost off-farm income 0.23 0.18 -0.052*** House Damaged 0.99 0.98 -0.009*** Rebuilt House 0.96 0.91 -0.050*** Gov Aid Receive (RMB) 21100.00 19679.42 -1,420.576** Gov Aid Expected (RMB) 4066.26 3709.72 -356.543** Cost of Rebuild (RMB) 76150.64 75178.46 -972.181 Town S suffered less than Town X from the earthquake. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 10 / 20
  • 11. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 11 / 20
  • 12. Identification To identify the effect of xi we will use a diff-in-diff strategy We will estimate the following: ∆yi = ∆α + C1 · Iv =1 + β 1 ∆xi + β 2 xi2007 + β 3 · Iv =1 · x2007 + B2007 X2007 + ∆ε i Such that: x the channel we are examining; X is a matrix of controls; i represents person or hh. Time trend concerns. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 12 / 20
  • 13. Variables of Interest Off-Farm Work: access to more information and connections with people who may not have suffered as much. Party Membership: Being in the communist party could mean more ‘favourable’ access to resources or aid, though, it could be a proxy for ability. Urban HuKo: With an urban HuKo an individual has more ‘outside’ options. Land: A Household with more land may recover quicker because it has access to a productive asset. Dependent Variables: Weight for height (BMI). Household Income. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 13 / 20
  • 14. BMI: Weight Over Height Squared Dependent Variable is Weight / Height^Sq VARIABLES [1] [2] [3] [4] Off-farm 2007 (=1) -0.000 -0.001 [0.001] [0.001] Off-farm 2007 * Town S -0.000 -0.000 [0.002] [0.002] Urban HuKo 2007 0.005*** 0.006*** [0.002] [0.002] Urban HuKo 2007 * Town S -0.006** -0.007*** [0.002] [0.002] Constant 0.003** 0.003** 0.003** 0.003** [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] Fixed Effects SV Vil SV Vil Controls: Marriage, Gender YES YES YES YES Controls: Age, Education, Year YES YES YES YES Observations 2,455 2,455 2,450 2,450 Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 14 / 20
  • 15. Variables of Interest Only HuKo status has an effect on weight for height. Mean BMI 0.0039 and standard deviation is 0.015 so having an urban HuKo status in an area hit harder by a natural disaster is equivalent to an increase of 0.33 standard deviations. An urban HuKo allows individuals to reside in an urban areas and access urban resources. To examine how an urban HuKo status is effecting weight for height we can examine movement after the earthquake. We examine if people with urban HuKo status were more likely to leave the county and/or stay away longer. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 15 / 20
  • 16. Urban HuKo Mechanism Dependent Varibales (=1) when the person left the county after Number of days person/family spent out VARIABLES the Earthquake hit. of county after earthquake Off-farm 2007 (=1) 0.084*** 0.084*** 6.552*** 6.689*** [0.025] [0.025] [2.004] [2.001] Off-farm 2007 * Town S 0.048 0.049 2.940 3.016 [0.033] [0.033] [2.664] [2.663] Urban HuKo 2007 -0.094** -0.073** -5.655* -4.025 [0.039] [0.035] [3.150] [2.833] Urban HuKo 2007 * Town S 0.087 0.045 0.984 -2.441 [0.053] [0.049] [4.345] [4.020] Fixed Effects SV Vil SV Vil SV Vil SV Vil Controls: Marriage, Gender YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Controls: Age, Education, Year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES Constant 0.122*** 0.122*** 0.176*** 0.179*** 11.776*** 12.006*** 16.053*** 16.501*** [0.027] [0.026] [0.025] [0.025] [2.152] [2.149] [2.029] [2.026] Observations 2,026 2,026 2,021 2,021 2,026 2,026 2,021 2,021 R-squared 0.082 0.078 0.070 0.064 0.065 0.056 0.054 0.045 Standard errors in brackets *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 16 / 20
  • 17. Urban HuKo Mechanism Dependent Variable Money From Cost of VARIABLES Go Hosp Get Treat Gov Rebuilding Urban HuKo 2007 -0.008 -0.002 8,147.563*** 446.772 [0.013] [0.012] [1,729.645] [7,138.363] Urban HuKo 2007 * Town S 0.006 0.001 -9,481.423*** 12,695.337 [0.019] [0.018] [2,454.602] [10,130.309] Fixed Effects Vil Vil Vil Vil Controls: Marriage, Gender YES YES YES YES Controls: Age, Education, Year YES YES YES YES Constant 0.022** 0.020** 22,080.267*** 71,451.535*** [0.010] [0.009] [1,237.346] [5,106.613] Observations 2,021 2,021 2,021 2,021 R-squared 0.013 0.014 0.034 0.035 Standard errors in brackets *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 17 / 20
  • 18. Variables of Interest Look at Household Income Having a member of the communist party is significant but does not seem to be due to selection on ability. Households that recover better after the earthquake are ones that received more aid (urban HuKo), have a party member in them, and have more land. Aid and access to land are drivers of household recovery. Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 18 / 20
  • 19. Household Income Dependent Variable is Log of Household Income VARIABLES [1] [2] [3] [4] [7] [8] Off-farm 2007 (=1) 0.725*** 0.763*** [0.130] [0.130] Off-farm 2007 * Town S -0.174 -0.201 [0.173] [0.171] Communist 2007 0.348** 0.373*** [0.138] [0.139] Communist 2007 * Town S -0.572** -0.563** [0.252] [0.249] Land Size in 2007 0.201*** 0.212*** [0.037] [0.036] Land Size in 2007 * Town S -0.144** -0.159*** [0.061] [0.060] Fixed Effects SV Vil SV Vil SV Vil Controls: Year, gender, HHsize Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Controls: Age, Education Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Constant 7.587*** 7.528*** 7.909*** 7.858*** 7.604*** 7.553*** [0.187] [0.189] [0.186] [0.188] [0.195] [0.195] Observations 1,599 1,599 1,599 1,599 1,502 1,502 R-squared 0.233 0.223 0.212 0.199 0.231 0.219 Robust standard errors in brac Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 19 / 20
  • 20. Household Income Dependent Variable is Log HH Income More Max VARIABLES Original Original Education Education Communist 2007 0.348** 0.373*** 0.336** 0.374** [0.138] [0.139] [0.139] [0.155] Communist 2007 * Town S -0.572** -0.563** -0.575** -0.715** [0.252] [0.249] [0.249] [0.277] Fixed Effects SV Vil Vil Vil Controls: Year, gender, HHsize Yes Yes Yes Yes Controls: Age, Education Yes Yes Yes Yes Constant 7.909*** 7.858*** 7.999*** 7.672*** [0.186] [0.188] [0.186] [0.239] Observations 1,599 1,599 1,599 1,157 R-squared 0.212 0.199 0.225 0.222 Robust standard errors in bracket Feng and Nolen (SHUFE and Essex) p<0.1 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * Sichuan Earthquake October 11, 2010 20 / 20

×