The Science of Kanban

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  • Kanban, Flow & Cadence – KFC (food) not lean!Agile2008. Blogged Oct 2008More than just the board/mechanicsEvolution - The science of KFChttp://www.flickr.com/photos/marufish/4888007513/
  • Elephant in the Room – Scientific Management. Manufacturing.Core ideas of scientific management developed by Federick Taylor in the late 19thC. Now 21stC.POV: We can still apply science to understanding why and how differences in productivity exist.
  • Kanban context.Assume some knowledge of kanban, although not a pre-requisite
  • General Action: Know where you are. Both capability (A3 current state) and domainHow you apply scientific management will be different.(See http://www.argenta-europ.com/default.asp?pageid=230)
  • ImpactIf you know where you are, and how you are doing, you know whether you are improvingAnticipatory, not reactive – evolutionary potential, not future stateContinuous Improvement & Continuous ChangeGeneral Benefit: Sense for Success – Improved Outcomes for Business and People
  • Knowledge work - Capability - CraftThe Human ConditionSociology / Neurosciencehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/a_mason/4006709/
  • Vision trumps all other senses – wine-tasting vocabulary experiment, BordeauxVisual processing dominates our perception of the world - Hallucination experimentThe more visual the input, the more likely to be rememberedSP: Visualise the Systemhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/mind_scratch/2434031231/
  • Clark & Wheelwright (1993) – Managing New Product and Process Development: Text and CasesMultitasking, when it comes to paying attention, is a myth.Multitasking takes 50% longer with 50% more errorsCell Phone get in more wrecks than anyone except /very/ drunk driversSP: Limit WIP
  • We are natural learners. Evolved as the superior species.Double Loop Learning – Chris Argyris - Mental Models/MindsetsAction Science - how human beings design their actions in difficult situationsSP: Kanban & Visibility creates difficult situations
  • Formal Science (e.g. Mathematics)Kanban -> Economy of Flow1000 coin tossesMacro: predictable (with some variance)Micro: unpredictable (50/50)Stock Photo
  • Queuing TheoryCapacity utilisation increases queues exponentiallyAssumes M/M/1/∞ (Markov arrival, Markov process, 1 server, ∞ queue)Little’s Law: Lead Time = Queue Size / Processing RateTo reduce Lead Time, reduce queues. To reduce queues, reduce utilisation.
  • Traffic FlowFlow = Speed x DensityVehicles/Hour = Miles/Hour x Vehicles/MileOriginally observed by Bruce Greenshaw in 1934Left side -> Reinforcing Loop: Density+, Speed-, Flow-, Density+Right side -> Balancing Loop: Density+, Speed-, Flow+, Density-
  • FeedbackShower Balancing Loop with Delay
  • Economic = social scienceValue. Types of value.Its better to do the right thing wrong, than the wrong thing right. (customer satisfaction)http://www.flickr.com/photos/42931449@N07/5300558006/
  • Life Cycle ProfitSoftware by NumbersBeyond Budgeting
  • Cost of Delay:
  • Information Theory50% failure is optimal for 50/50 results
  • Lean Startup – buying information
  • Buying InformationSet Based Concurrent EngineeringBuying Insurance
  • Scientific ManagementThe workers are the scientists
  • PDCA or Check-Plan-Do or LAMBDAA3sExperiments only fail when they don’t complete
  • This talk uses Simon Sinek’s Golden Circle to discuss Agile TransformationsImpact
  • Axes of ImprovementOutcomes over Outputs. Science suggests levers
  • LeanEconomics – customer value, not reducing costProcess – eliminating delays & creating flow, not eliminating wastePeople – Those who use the tools, not the tools themselves
  • The Science of Kanban

    1. 1. The Science of Kanban
    2. 2. kscotland@rallydev.com http://availagility.co.uk twitter.com/kjscotlandKARLSCOTLAND
    3. 3. Scientific Management
    4. 4. StudyLearn Share System Sense Limit
    5. 5. Complex Complicated • Retrospectively Coherent • Potentially Knowable • Cause-Effect not repeatable • Cause-Effect separated in time • Probe → Sense → Respond & space • Sense → Analyse → RespondUnordered Domains Ordered Domains Disorder Chaos Simple • Incoherent • Known • Cause-Effect not perceivable • Cause-Effect • Act → Sense → Respond perceivable, predictable, repeata ble • Sense → Categorise → Respond http://www.cognitive-edge.com/
    6. 6. People
    7. 7. Clark & Wheelwright: Managing New Product and Process Development
    8. 8. 100 80Percent 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Simultaneous Projects Working Time Context Switching Time Gerald Weinberg, Quality Software Management: Systems Thinking
    9. 9. Single Loop Learning Strategies &Assumptions Results Techniques Double Loop Learning
    10. 10. Process
    11. 11. Queuing Capacity Utilisation Lead Time = Queue Size / Processing RateQueue Utilisation
    12. 12. Flow = Speed x Density Density FlowVehicles Vehiclesper perHour Mile Miles per Hour Speed Miles per Hour
    13. 13. DifferenceTemperature Adjustment
    14. 14. Fast FeedbackFaster Smaller Flow Queues Lower WIP
    15. 15. Economics
    16. 16. Discounted Cash Life Cycle Profits TimeMaximumCashInjectionNeeded Investment Period Payback Period Profit Period Self-funding Break-even Point Point
    17. 17. Cost Standard Expedite Time Cost of Delay Fixed Date Intangible
    18. 18. Information Information Theory 0% Probability of Failure 100%
    19. 19. IdeasLearn Build Lean StartupData Code Measure
    20. 20. Asymmetric Pay-offsGain Payoff PerformanceLoss Target
    21. 21. Risk Reduction Sequence EarlyValue of Risk Reduction Sequence Late Cost of Risk Reduction
    22. 22. PlanAct Do Check
    23. 23. ObserveAct Orient Decide
    24. 24. The GoldenCircle What How Why http://www.startwithwhy.com/
    25. 25. Economics LeanPeople Process
    26. 26. Books• Kanban – David J. Anderson• The Principles of Product Development Flow – Donald G. Reinertsen• Brain Rules – John Medina• Software by Numbers – Mark Denne & Jane Cleland-Huang
    27. 27. Thank you! Email: kscotland@rallydev.com Twitter: http://twitter.com/kjscotland Blog: http://availagility.co.uk

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